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  • #18,821
  • Jan 28, 2026 3:54am Jan 28, 2026 3:54am
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  • #18,822
  • Jan 28, 2026 4:34am Jan 28, 2026 4:34am
Quoting Meer-Shayhak
EURUSD broke above the parallel channel and a pattern (the measured move) is clearly visible on H4 ... if the pattern work then the bulls should be able to secure 1.2000 psychological level ... On Daily we can clearly see a morning star candle stick pattern which indicate the bulls have kicked in .... On H1 the RSI is above 76 which indicate overbought condition and we might see a small retracment or a period of consolidation {image}
The pattern worked and the target is reached
  • #18,823
  • Jan 28, 2026 5:47am Jan 28, 2026 5:47am
letīs see how the horly candle closes...
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  • #18,824
  • Edited 6:09am Jan 28, 2026 5:58am | Edited 6:09am
It feels like big money is trying to scare the Bulls in to closing positions at the consolidation area midday yesterday before the spike going into the NY close. It doesn't feel like a panic selloff even at 1.19600. I would be looking to go short below the 1.19500 order block from yesterday morning's NY session. The FOMC today will probably give a clear trend continuation or reversal unless all hell breaks loose?
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  • #18,825
  • Edited 7:09am Jan 28, 2026 6:02am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting DonEtienne28
letīs see how the horly candle closes... {image}
candle closed below the breakerīs lowest body close => CISD from bullish to bearish.

Now looking for bearish entries, letīs wait for NY to show its hands...
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  • #18,826
  • Jan 28, 2026 7:58am Jan 28, 2026 7:58am
Quoting DonEtienne28
{quote} candle closed below the breakerīs lowest body close => CISD from bullish to bearish. Now looking for bearish entries, letīs wait for NY to show its hands... {image} {image}
Great trade, great charts, thank you for sharing, it is all very helpful.
  • #18,827
  • Jan 28, 2026 8:32am Jan 28, 2026 8:32am
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} Great trade, great charts, thank you for sharing, it is all very helpful.
thank you very much, youīre welcome - just sharing my thoughts
  • #18,828
  • Jan 28, 2026 8:50am Jan 28, 2026 8:50am
we're all in it together m8, learning, growing. Getting this currency flow $€ĢĨ
It is what it is
  • #18,829
  • Jan 28, 2026 8:52am Jan 28, 2026 8:52am
Quoting newbegger
{image} So... Looks like my end of year prediction was wrong. Whether it's just muscle memory or real decisions being made, the movers are doing a normal start of the year, buying USD. I have already turned my positions, took my shorts off (joke) put my long pants on and going long for long term trade account. Buying longs now on the dips. Will keep buying until proven wrong or a major economic event triggers flight to safety. Giddy-up! Happy trades to you, NB
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I may have spoke too soon. History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme. I knew that monthly chart looked familiar.

Maybe 2026 will repeat like 2018. Different cycle in 2018 but simlilar set up. At that point, prime rate was still low, before the inflation fuse was lit from COVID-19 so economy was different. But similar cycle in that The Donald was in second year of office and there had been a huge drop in USD the first year in office.

Trump, Schumer and even the band leader Jerome Powell cannot affect long term rates. That's the bond market. The 10 year was pretty flat in 2018 but in 2026 has an upward bias. So there you go!

Happy trades to you,
NB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #18,830
  • Jan 28, 2026 9:19am Jan 28, 2026 9:19am
I donīt know what the hell happened - had some troubles with the broker - position closed worse then intended.

Nevertheless, 26,5 pips in 7 minutes...


TP 26,5 pips
SL 7,3 pips
RR 1: 3,63
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  • #18,831
  • Jan 28, 2026 10:57am Jan 28, 2026 10:57am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} {image} I may have spoke too soon. History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme. I knew that monthly chart looked familiar. Maybe 2026 will repeat like 2018. Different cycle in 2018 but simlilar set up. At that point, prime rate was still low, before the inflation fuse was lit from COVID-19 so economy was different. But similar cycle in that The Donald was in second year of office and there had been a huge drop in USD the first year in office. Trump, Schumer and even the band leader Jerome Powell cannot affect long term rates. That's...
The month is near the end with fed today, nfp and later cpi will tell us more about and there is always Trump to create spikes, so we'll see. Also Russia/Ukraine peace deal is on the making!

I think 1.2300 or some higher will be reached long term but that could be as soon as next week!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #18,832
  • Jan 28, 2026 12:16pm Jan 28, 2026 12:16pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} The month is near the end with fed today, nfp and later cpi will tell us more about and there is always Trump to create spikes, so we'll see. Also Russia/Ukraine peace deal is on the making! I think 1.2300 or some higher will be reached long term but that could be as soon as next week!
weekly/monthly close should give us a clue!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,833
  • Jan 28, 2026 1:12pm Jan 28, 2026 1:12pm
had a feeling it was headed to 1900 but hey, can't always win, better to be certain or have a higher probability than to assume. Maybe gap fillŋ
It is what it is
  • #18,834
  • Jan 28, 2026 1:14pm Jan 28, 2026 1:14pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} i have 1890 and 1830 as my levels of interest. Not sure if we will get there. we didnt go back to retest 1743 but there is no guarantee we will, in the near future. Just like there were a lot of those levels untouched since Mar last year when we broke above 1.05
getting clode to my first support level. Wait for Powell
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,835
  • Edited 1:43pm Jan 28, 2026 1:21pm | Edited 1:43pm
sounds good 1830 or lower might be possible as well as 1900 could hold (lower would always be better for a reload but i have this zone in my sights) js u never know with these markets. I'll just wait n see what happens from here
It is what it is
  • #18,836
  • Jan 28, 2026 1:28pm Jan 28, 2026 1:28pm
EURUSD
trendlines, (SMC)

H1 CLOSE ABOVE 1.1900

  1. H1 BOS UP remains valid
  2. Bias = bullish continuation

Targets:

  1. 1.1965 – 1.1985
  2. then 1.2000 – 1.2100

We move higher

H1 CLOSE BELOW 1.1900

  1. not an immediate short
  2. only:

    1. correction / pullback


Watch the next key level:

  1. 1.1845

If it holds → still a bullish range.

H1 CHOCH UP level
1.1845 = H1 CHOCH UP
At this level:

  1. the bearish microstructure was broken
  2. bullish control began

As long as price remains above 1.1845,
the bullish market character is preserved, even if we drop below 1.1900.

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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,837
  • Jan 28, 2026 1:49pm Jan 28, 2026 1:49pm
EURUSD
trendlines

Resistance
1.19890 – 1.20263 is a resistance zone (H4/D1 supply + buy-side delivery).

Buy-side liquidity delivery
In this zone there are:

  1. EQ highs
  2. buy stops
  3. breakout longs

Price is delivered into this area, the trend does not start here.

H4 / D1 supply
Historically:

  1. rejections originated from this area
  2. distribution candles formed here

This is a higher-timeframe level, stronger than H1.

Breakout (continuation)

  1. H4 close ABOVE 1.20263
  2. no strong rejection

resistance fails → continuation

Rejection (correction)

  1. wick + H1 CHOCH DOWN inside the zone

return to:

  1. 1.1965
  2. 1.1900
  3. potentially 1.1760

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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,838
  • Jan 28, 2026 2:36pm Jan 28, 2026 2:36pm
pretty un-eventful fomc as expected. Market seems like thinking Powell is dovish but i m thinking more neutral.

eu bounced off first support level 1890-1900 (38.2 fib for this wave)

i guess we still have good chance to retrace back to 1830 before next leg up.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,839
  • Jan 28, 2026 2:44pm Jan 28, 2026 2:44pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} The month is near the end with fed today, nfp and later cpi will tell us more about and there is always Trump to create spikes, so we'll see. Also Russia/Ukraine peace deal is on the making! I think 1.2300 or some higher will be reached long term but that could be as soon as next week!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I hedged part of my long exposure after the rate announcement in case the talk of US government shutdown increases or other unknown. I anticipate shutdown talk will be bullish USD (safety trade) so I am part hedged. Looking for a run down into 1.1860 area to close out the hedge. Or a break above 1.2060? Either way does not matter.

I am thinking that with ECB on hold at 2.00 and FOMC on hold at 3.75, monies will drift into USD over next few months and cause steady grind down in EURUSD. Similar to 2018. But for now, main position still holding hedged long EURUSD.

Happy trades to you,
NB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #18,840
  • Jan 28, 2026 8:54pm Jan 28, 2026 8:54pm
Quoting johncen
pretty un-eventful fomc as expected. Market seems like thinking Powell is dovish but i m thinking more neutral. eu bounced off first support level 1890-1900 (38.2 fib for this wave) i guess we still have good chance to retrace back to 1830 before next leg up.
not sure if 1890-1900 is all we get and we go back up. Let see what London open has to offer.
tomorrow is the end of the week and the month
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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