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The Swamp

  • #126,421
  • Jan 27, 2026 11:10am Jan 27, 2026 11:10am
0lder EU tl about 1.2001
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,422
  • Jan 27, 2026 11:21am Jan 27, 2026 11:21am
I have been watching this downward trendline on weekly for a while and is at 1.2 now not sure if it will do anything
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,423
  • Jan 27, 2026 11:22am Jan 27, 2026 11:22am
usdx
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,424
  • Jan 27, 2026 11:26am Jan 27, 2026 11:26am
Quoting johncen
I have been watching this downward trendline on weekly for a while and is at 1.2 now not sure if it will do anything {image}
usdx has a poke below.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,425
  • Jan 27, 2026 11:28am Jan 27, 2026 11:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} usdx has a poke below.
yea which could be the beginning of a downtrend. Meaning 1.2 is unlikely to be the top

end of the week/ month end level would help to indicate if it is a confirned breakout
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,426
  • Jan 27, 2026 11:35am Jan 27, 2026 11:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} usdx has a poke below.
Finding out who is selling U.S. Treasuries is a bit like watching a high-stakes game of poker—the players don't always show their hands immediately, but the "scorecard" is eventually published by the government.
Where to See the Sellers
The most authoritative place to track this is the Treasury International Capital (TIC) System. This is a monthly report released by the U.S. Treasury that lists "Major Foreign Holders."

  1. TIC Table 5 (Major Foreign Holders): This is the specific "cheat sheet." It shows a country-by-country breakdown of who is buying and who is selling.
  2. TreasuryDirect Auction Results: While the TIC data shows who holds them, this site shows who is buying them new at auction. If "Indirect Bidders" (mostly foreign central banks) drop off, it’s a sign that international interest is cooling.

The 2026 "Sell-Off" Report
As of late January 2026, there is a notable shift in the Treasury market. Here is a simple breakdown of the "who" and the "why."
1. Who is Selling?
While total foreign holdings remain high, several major players are reducing their positions:

  1. China: Continues a multi-year trend of "quietly leaving," liquidating roughly $350 billion since 2022 to diversify into gold and other assets.
  2. India: Recently offloaded holdings to a five-year low to support their own currency (the Rupee) and pivot toward gold.
  3. Brazil & Germany: Both have appeared on recent lists as net sellers in late 2025/early 2026.

2. Why the USD is Getting Weak (The Simple Version)
The U.S. Dollar (USD) has dropped nearly 10% over the last year. It boils down to three main reasons:

  1. The "Interest Rate" Slide: For years, U.S. interest rates were much higher than the rest of the world, making the dollar a "magnet" for investors. Now that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, that magnet has lost its strength. Investors are moving money to countries where they can get better returns.
  2. The "Trust" Factor: Recent policy shifts, including aggressive trade tariffs and disputes with the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), have made foreign central banks nervous. They are "hedging their bets" by selling dollars and buying gold, which recently soared above $5,000 an ounce.
  3. Too Much Debt: The "Big Beautiful Bill" and other fiscal stimulus plans have increased U.S. debt. When a country prints more money and issues more debt than the world wants to buy, the value of that currency naturally drops.

Summary: The dollar is weak because the world is less "hungry" for it. Between lower interest rates and a desire to rely less on U.S. policy, big players like China and India are swapping their Treasuries for gold and local currencies

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,427
  • Jan 27, 2026 11:59am Jan 27, 2026 11:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Finding out who is selling U.S. Treasuries is a bit like watching a high-stakes game of poker—the players don't always show their hands immediately, but the "scorecard" is eventually published by the government. Where to See the Sellers The most authoritative place to track this is the Treasury International Capital (TIC) System. This is a monthly report released...
The world is fed up with the lying murderers.
This isn't just about making fun of the world with the fake moon landing or the three twin towers or the airplane mysteriously disappeared inside the Pentagon.
This is about much bigger lies that allowed the birth of Nazism.
We are all living in Nazism now, and people are waking up to the evil empire. The ultimate luxury is drinking the blood of frightened children to seek eternal youth. We are at an epochal pivot. Evil is no longer afraid to come out into the open, and everyone is running away from a toilet paper stained with human blood called the dollar. Who will be the reddest exterminated people? Who are we going to kill now? The Venezuelan fishermen? Who are we going to kill? The world is fed up with the lying murderers.
  • #126,428
  • Jan 27, 2026 12:20pm Jan 27, 2026 12:20pm
chf/jpy.. I don't have anything closer. This is unlikely to develop. I will look to short 200.36 to 199.54
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,429
  • Jan 27, 2026 12:54pm Jan 27, 2026 12:54pm
A nice 100 pip spike to clear things. A nice sweep at the trendline to clear things.
Mt spread went up to 20
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,430
  • Jan 27, 2026 1:00pm Jan 27, 2026 1:00pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,431
  • Jan 27, 2026 1:18pm Jan 27, 2026 1:18pm
Quoting johncen
I have been watching this downward trendline on weekly for a while and is at 1.2 now not sure if it will do anything {image}
That trendline and 1.2 level done almost nothing
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,432
  • Jan 27, 2026 1:43pm Jan 27, 2026 1:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
chf/jpy.. I don't have anything closer. This is unlikely to develop. I will look to short 200.36 to 199.54 {image}
I was skeptical it would make it to 200.36ish. It has a good chance to drop 75 pips there. I will switch to a small time frame to get a entry. s/l is usually 25 pips ..200.61
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,433
  • Jan 27, 2026 1:46pm Jan 27, 2026 1:46pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} That trendline and 1.2 level done almost nothing
Probably because we crossed 1743 last week.. Keep an eye on 1.2096.2 ish
It was a nice sweep... Everyone and their brother probably had a short 1.2
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,434
  • Jan 27, 2026 2:09pm Jan 27, 2026 2:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Probably because we crossed 1743 last week.. Keep an eye on 1.2096.2 ish It was a nice sweep... Everyone and their brother probably had a short 1.2
yea that was very significant and from then i know we are going to set a new high.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,435
  • Jan 27, 2026 4:50pm Jan 27, 2026 4:50pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea that was very significant and from then i know we are going to set a new high.
last year 1.2083 was the chain stretch algo, but it didn't happen. I need to figure this shit out. I think its 2096 now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,436
  • Jan 27, 2026 4:51pm Jan 27, 2026 4:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} last year 1.2083 was the chain stretch algo, but it didn't happen. I need to figure this shit out. I think its 2096 now.
got this on my daily. It may means nothing in a strong trend like this
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,437
  • Jan 27, 2026 6:28pm Jan 27, 2026 6:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
I don't see a reason to be pro usd. +1737 and +1749 for the close this year is likely usd bullish. If pa is establishing a position above them now. It may give them support value. If so you may see 1931 as target 1. Some likely retrace after 1931ish. Target 2, 2083. That is if it establishes this now as these levels to become support. This can be an R area as well. The next 12h close above would not be anti bull. The clock runs out on these target too at year end. One example of a possibly decent run would be if price went to 1931 or 2082. And closed...
I had this 2082/83,, But once the year closed it went up a little to 2096. This was the original. At the time there was that big ass tl.. Math pointed to 2083 or 2082.. Now it may be 2092. I haven't figured it all out. But I know the algo works sometimes for a top or a bottom.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,438
  • Edited 7:38pm Jan 27, 2026 7:27pm | Edited 7:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I had this 2082/83,, But once the year closed it went up a little to 2096. This was the original. At the time there was that big ass tl.. Math pointed to 2083 or 2082.. Now it may be 2092. I haven't figured it all out. But I know the algo works sometimes for a top or a bottom. {image}
welldone Gator!
the high for now at 20847 from my broker
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,439
  • Jan 27, 2026 8:11pm Jan 27, 2026 8:11pm
the 6h did close on the bullish side.
Its made a nice run up. Its come back almost 100 pips. I closed the short from earlier. Possibly see if there is some support 1950 area.
1937 1h, 1976 15m
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,440
  • Jan 27, 2026 8:52pm Jan 27, 2026 8:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
the 6h did close on the bullish side. Its made a nice run up. Its come back almost 100 pips. I closed the short from earlier. Possibly see if there is some support 1950 area. 1937 1h, 1976 15m
its bullish across all tf. When we discussed about 1.2 last October, at that time it seems like we are still testing the bottom of a long term usd uptrend. But now after 6 months consolidation and a breakout. The entire dedollarisation has just started and a lot more to come! EU can go much higher in the next 6-12 months.
for now i m not sure what can change this outlook.

any dip is a buying opportunity
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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