Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

"The market tends to persist in its current behavior rather than
abruptly changing direction. Instead of predicting shifts, we align
with prevailing market conditions. Trade based on what you see, not
what you hope."~Chris Drysdale

Thats from Chris's free VWAP core setup guide.... I highly recommend it... It's 100% SOLID !

What I show is just what makes sense to me...and thats what matters... Finding your way.
There is no cookie cutter methods. We all perform differently as fingerprints.
The Turtle traders were a great example of that.

I don't profess to know it all..far from it...only what works for me....and it is my hope that
by sharing what works for me...some of what I share may work for or help you...

But that quote above...was like getting hit over the head ..especially with how it relates to
Auction market theory and Balance/Imbalance... Ranging/trending....Fair Value/Discovery

Back to the ES and GJ...... two completely different markets...Currency and Indice. Futures and Spot.
Yet the principles remain the same.

A chart is a chart is a chart,,,,just a rational representation of human behaviour. Thats it. Nothing more.

Behaviour tends to persist in its current form until proven otherwise.

Gold another great example..Yet there are traders who insist on always shorting it. Why not go with the flow ?
I dont disagree that there are shorting opportunities.

Gold has been in Price Discovery on most timeframes for longer than I recall right now lol..
Following VWAP do I want to short ?


As for GJ an out of balance market to the downside (currently) ahh and I must also say Round numbers and GJ
are like fish in water... they go together...similar to Crude Oil .....very important confluence...
Here ya go.



As for ES,,,,,, Balanced ,,,simple as that.

ES Long Setup

Above Session/Daily Weekly VWAP & Prev Week POC
RoadMap entries

Prev Week Close important level as well Fri Inside Day.

Yes -even the ORB and Vids "Mebob" delivered ( in combo with Roadmap. But I still get out too early sometimes despite the discipline of Roadmap. Age I

Yes -even the ORB and Vids "Mebob" delivered ( in combo with Roadmap). But I still get out too early sometimes despite the discipline of Roadmap. Age I guess

Hello Mr T !
Yes some days everything's firing with the setups.

Here's an idea... Once you're in the trade with roadmap... Or even if it was a orbitrade and you have your roadmap EMA channels up.. observe where price is opening and closing...

For today with the long you want price to be opening and closing above the channel the bodies of the candles.. start with the one minute work your way up to the 5 minute..

Now gauge that where you've been getting out and relation to where price is within that Channel or outside of it..

Another tidbit that I always am aware of is the 10:00 a.m. timing.. off in the market reverses their which could be a big part of the reasoning behind MeBob.

But that's trading.. a lot easier than it looks to hang on to a profitable trade.

And currently a nice little bounce on the 1m Roadmap at IB high

Wow

Silver pulled back wiping out almost a trillion dollars in value in 90 minutes..

Gold pulled back from its eyes taking out around $800 billion in value...

1.7 trillion in 90 minutes at last count off the books....

To put that in perspective that is basically the total market value of every single Bitcoin in the world..
90 minutes to wipe it out...

All from a tweet...

Can you say insider trading...

We live in extraordinary (trading) times Kev
Trade safe, trade well all


GOLD
SILVER

.

Truly extraordinary times... Massive amounts of money lost and made today..

Quick calculation on one silver e-mini contract... That reversal was 45 $50,000.. geesh

Natural Gas +40% today

Yes 40% increase in one day ! and approx 140% in last 5 or 6 days ?

Just massive moves. WOW !

I've dabbled with NG.... They call it "The WidowMaker" for good reason.... I've seen may days in the 5++% range ..which are HUGE !!!
BUT 40% in one day !!!

The scale on the charts are absolutely skewed from these massive moves ... But post a few anyways....




OK some perspective...Look at these days preceeding these moves... 5-10% daily moves...whuch are MASSIVE in themselves.
BUT the Widowmaker shines in the Winter months...Even though its a year round commodity.....

Massive days 10% then the charts...well they go off the charts lol...skewed is putting it mildly lol...

What extraordinary times we are in !

China Buying Gold like Crazy...

I knew ...we all know the gold market has gone on a huge bull run.
I knew China has been increasing reserves for 14 months straight...
Asia Gold session has been a buyers bonanza all year....

Goldman Sachs...

"China continues to stockpile gold behind the scenes: China acquired +10 tonnes of gold in November, ~11 times more than officially reported by the central bank, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. Similarly, in September, estimated purchases reached +15 tonnes, or 10 times more than officially reported."

As well they (China) have been lessening their US treasury holdings...

Quite obvious...China does not trust the paper market (U.S.A.) and are protecting themselves moving to hard assets.

Interesting stuff ! Interesting World !

EDIT : forgot to add my US Dollar chart.... The US dollar has lost..been devalues over 10% since Trump took office,,,,The Chinese have been only ramping up gold
purchases every single month... Coincidence ? I think not.

GOLDEN HOUR=INITIAL BALANCE




And a Session VWAP,,,,,,,,

Follow up,,,Since last post above. Price Retests IB high and Low..Pink circles.




Next Price moves up from the IB Low,and runs into VWAP...one of two things ...Reject or push thru.


If Rejects probabilities tell me either VWAP(session) or combined 1SDs


Done 200 ticks down...200 ticks back up...$10 tick $4k Bedtime

Edge of Value,,,,,,,,,

A good way of staying out of the washing machine... Does it always work Nope!
But when your wrong you know it,,when you use the context of value or edge of value....

GC and ES both great setups for those who took them.... THese happen day in day out.,,

I always harp on about the IB prev days IB...The Open how price behaves around these etc...
plus other levels.... Theres a reason lol.








And finally I thought GJ for those that trade currencies...Im not trading GJ at this moment..Just a chart.
But regardless of "data" it shows what it shows...
A few things...Wicks...they tell a story... Read up on wicks and orderflow relation.
THe Prev Day IB level...Look at how price rotated around that...Especially near todays Open.

Finally 2 wicks after the open into the Vwap 1SD "edge of Value" and then a 3rd near...Mind you this is 5m chart
Nevertheless good setups are presented with value in mind...or your playbook...

Have a great day !

OHH forgot..this kid gets it...100%

I use VP levels highly highly similar...except I add in OVerlapping Value from
composite values and put more weight into them at certain times... Perhaps he does
I have no idea... But man what a great primer video !!

Can learn something even from a young one LOL !

Cheers

Following up with Gold,,, Today's high, the cluster, around 1120am and surrounding PA all at prev days RTH VAH and POC...

I just have to post this...
Chilling out . Has this pop up on my YouTube feed.
Watched it ..highly recommend it..

Trader Dale straight up good info.
VWAP and VP... He throws in PA/Structure as well.

Worth a watch .

Cheers

The BOSS has spoken !!!!
God bless you Bruce!!!
Been a fan for over 40 years ...

Best concerts ever !!!

A true Patriot American !!!

Nothing like a True Patriots Protest Song !!
Powerful lyrics


Through the winter’s ice and cold
Down Nicollet Avenue
A city aflame fought fire and ice
‘Neath an occupier’s boots
King Trump’s private army from the DHS
Guns belted to their coats
Came to Minneapolis to enforce the law
Or so their story goes
Against smoke and rubber bullets
By the dawn’s early light
Citizens stood for justice
Their voices ringing through the night
And there were bloody footprints
Where mercy should have stood
And two dead left to die on snow-filled streets
Alex Pretti and Renee Good
Oh our Minneapolis, I hear your voice
Singing through the bloody mist
We’ll take our stand for this land
And the stranger in our midst
Here in our home they killed and roamed
In the winter of ’26
We’ll remember the names of those who died
On the streets of Minneapolis
Trump’s federal thugs beat up on
His face and his chest
Then we heard the gunshots
And Alex Pretti lay in the snow, dead
Their claim was self defense, sir
Just don’t believe your eyes
It’s our blood and bones
And these whistles and phones
Against Miller and Noem’s dirty lies
Oh our Minneapolis, I hear your voice
Crying through the bloody mist
We’ll remember the names of those who died
On the streets of Minneapolis
Now they say they’re here to uphold the law
But they trample on our rights
If your skin is black or brown my friend
You can be questioned or deported on sight
In chants of ICE out now
Our city’s heart and soul persists
Through broken glass and bloody tears
On the streets of Minneapolis
Oh our Minneapolis, I hear your voice
Singing through the bloody mist
Here in our home they killed and roamed
In the winter of ’26
We’ll take our stand for this land
And the stranger in our midst
We’ll remember the names of those who died
On the streets of Minneapolis
We’ll remember the names of those who died
On the streets of Minneapolis

The official video...



As the Bruce says
no retreat baby no surrender