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The White Whale

  • #141
  • Jan 21, 2026 1:58pm Jan 21, 2026 1:58pm
need to hold the 1-lot, 400-wide 1/26 call fly til Monday, a finish in the 26000 zone could go >$10k
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142
  • Edited 12:04pm Jan 22, 2026 11:28am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting The Fool
entered this morning, b4 the latest Greenland pop....looking for > 25,800 by Friday
taking off the bwf at near be, if NDX continues to move up tomorrow, I'd just be fighting it.

... Took off the 1/23 25800 long call for >$10 net, and I am left with the 400-wide fly for Monday

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143
  • Jan 23, 2026 9:09am Jan 23, 2026 9:09am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} and I am left with the 400-wide fly for Monday {image}
with stocks looking kind of sluggish, I took off the big fly for $16, better than 3x
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144
  • Jan 23, 2026 10:21am Jan 23, 2026 10:21am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}with stocks looking kind of sluggish, I took off the big fly for $16, better than 3x
...and then NDX broke out 100 pts up....classic
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145
  • Jan 23, 2026 4:26pm Jan 23, 2026 4:26pm
Next week FOMC and several mega-cap tech name earnings, might get some movement. Entered combo below today and I might be looking to take it all off by Wed-Thurs, we'll see.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146
  • Jan 28, 2026 10:51am Jan 28, 2026 10:51am
Quoting The Fool
Next week FOMC and several mega-cap tech name earnings, might get some movement. Entered combo below today and I might be looking to take it all off by Wed-Thurs, we'll see. {image}
with NDX sitting dead on its mid, I took off the 1/28 fly for near $22, a nice gain. If I had multiples I woulda let one run to near the close, but hard to resist grabbing cash when just a 1-lot. Letting everything else ride...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #147
  • Jan 28, 2026 11:04am Jan 28, 2026 11:04am
ASML ER reaction maybe a warning for the other Mag7 coming out soon?

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #148
  • Feb 1, 2026 11:42pm Feb 1, 2026 11:42pm
btfd watch this week, looking for no/lo cost bwf's with tail hedge
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149
  • Feb 3, 2026 3:41pm Feb 3, 2026 3:41pm
entered this 50-tall 0dte call vert in the last hour & took it off for a double ($4 net)....it went to $40....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150
  • Feb 24, 2026 11:37pm Feb 24, 2026 11:37pm
NDX really looks ready to pop off a 4-500 pt breakout bull candle

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151
  • Feb 25, 2026 10:39am Feb 25, 2026 10:39am
I like trading spreads, but for NDX, given its size, it might be better to just go long calls or puts (or fotm strangle) when you expect a good move @ 1dte or 0dte. Showing below the 5min chart of the 2/25 25350 calls - bot near the close for ~$1 yesterday, went to >$20 on the 250-300 pt upmove this morning.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #152
  • Feb 25, 2026 11:06am Feb 25, 2026 11:06am
Quoting The Fool
it might be better to just go long calls or puts (or fotm strangle) when you expect a good move @ 1dte or 0dte.
....looking at this idea, probably better to enter @the 2dte close, with an eye to grabbing profit @ the 1 dte extension. Today, will look for $1-$3 calls, thinking of NVDA et al earnings popping the N100 tomorrow. Not so easy (cheap) for the puts, so would need to look at put verticals, methinks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #153
  • Feb 25, 2026 11:16am Feb 25, 2026 11:16am
markets have been punishing the tech names on their earnings, maybe NVDA & CRM the same. Some put spread ideas @ 2/27. The closer to itm and the wider the spread, the better. Generally will need a pretty big move to make good money.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #154
  • Feb 25, 2026 12:21pm Feb 25, 2026 12:21pm
can try verts/longs combos - the iv slide in an upmove will hurt the calls P/L; and the reverse for a downmove @ the puts....still need a good sized move to make money and a flatliner will result in loss

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #155
  • Feb 25, 2026 12:27pm Feb 25, 2026 12:27pm
the 1200 pt red candle on 11/20 was what NDX did on the last day-after NVDA earnings. The NVDA ER then was a solid beat, but, like I said, the tech names have been getting whacked on earnings...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #156
  • Feb 25, 2026 2:22pm Feb 25, 2026 2:22pm
for tomorrow, need a good move either way...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #157
  • Feb 25, 2026 4:35pm Feb 25, 2026 4:35pm
NVDA earnings looking like a nothing burger, we'll see what happens overnight...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #158
  • Feb 25, 2026 6:27pm Feb 25, 2026 6:27pm
tracking /NQ, total dookie. Top & bottom lines are the rough b/e's for the NDX combo. Will probly look a lot worse tomorrow as more theta cooks off.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #159
  • Feb 26, 2026 9:13am Feb 26, 2026 9:13am
Quoting The Fool
for tomorrow, need a good move either way... {image}
small losses. not a bad idea. can't win them all...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #160
  • Mar 11, 2026 6:30am Mar 11, 2026 6:30am
ATR up over 400 & elevated iv's puts the 0dte flys in play
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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