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Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)

  • #141
  • Jan 21, 2026 8:57am Jan 21, 2026 8:57am
Hi everyone! Slow week this week with a lot of volatility. Didnt trade Monday or Tuesday because of it and right now just keeping the trading manual. I did take trades on today's session break outs. Small profits for now, once this tariff and Davos volatility is over with I'll turn on the EAs again.
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  • #142
  • Jan 21, 2026 9:38am Jan 21, 2026 9:38am
UNRELATED:
Yesterday's market drop provided a good dollar-cost-averaging opportunity for Dow Jones that hit TP today after the tariff, trade and Greenland uncertainty was cleared by the Don's speech at Davos.
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  • #143
  • Jan 22, 2026 12:03pm Jan 22, 2026 12:03pm
Today's trades. Still some volatility around the Davos thing and Trump so I didnt want to risk too much with the Dow Jones trade, there was money left on the table but don't matter. I did manage to hit TP on S&P 500 futures. One position was a modified grid position and then the one from today was the simple break out strategy I'm using. All done for today.
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  • #144
  • Jan 23, 2026 6:19am Jan 23, 2026 6:19am
Interesting observation on session overlap. Do you notice reduced follow-through during late NY?
  • #145
  • Jan 23, 2026 1:08pm Jan 23, 2026 1:08pm
Quoting Rrlab
Interesting observation on session overlap. Do you notice reduced follow-through during late NY?
Expand a little on this? What do you mean by reduced follow-through?
  • #146
  • Jan 23, 2026 1:10pm Jan 23, 2026 1:10pm
Happy Friday everyone! Here are this week's trades. Not too many with the volatility around last weekend's tariff announcements and then Davos this week. Earnings are also moving the indexes around. Also, I had a timing issue with the EAs, I entered the times wrong so some trades were taken manually.
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  • #147
  • Jan 26, 2026 8:39am Jan 26, 2026 8:39am
'Morning everyone! Profits on all three U.S. indexes before first hour of trading session. Small targets. Been finding out that swaps kill me a little more than drawdown, but oh well. I'm all done for the day!
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  • #148
  • Jan 26, 2026 9:04am Jan 26, 2026 9:04am
Some friends asked me if I am still trading Range Breakouts....of course, why trade anything else..
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  • #149
  • Jan 26, 2026 9:18am Jan 26, 2026 9:18am
Quoting driven18
Some friends asked me if I am still trading Range Breakouts....of course, why trade anything else.. {image}
Hell yeah dude! I like it.
  • #150
  • Jan 26, 2026 2:19pm Jan 26, 2026 2:19pm
Quoting driven18
Some friends asked me if I am still trading Range Breakouts....of course, why trade anything else.. {image}
Continuations of today trade from above, taking TP at around right here + 6% for today.

Entries almost do not matter, Money Management and controlling MindFuck (Fear and Greed) to get to TP is where its at. I circled placed where Mindfuck happens to 95% of the traders.

..and TP is reached
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  • #151
  • Edited 2:44pm Jan 26, 2026 2:29pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Continuations of today trade from above, taking TP at around right here + 6% for today. Entries almost do not matter, Money Management and controlling MindFuck (Fear and Greed) to get to TP is where its at. I circled placed where Mindfuck happens to 95% of the traders. {image}
Dude yeah Dow Jones just ripped today. Also, the think about MindFuck is if you stare at charts all day, you're gonna get it. That's why I try and use the EA, that has been backtested, forward tested on demo and now live. It's in, it's out and that's it. I get the notification on my phone about TP's being hit, and continue with my work day.
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  • #152
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:07pm Jan 27, 2026 3:07pm
Long Day! Took a loss on an S&P 500 short, took some longs that were VERY close to my TP but didnt break so I'll have to hold those over night. Nasdaq provided profits for that loss and ALMOST hit 26000 where I have a target for some dollar cost averaging positions. Lastly the Dow Jones gave me a quick profit at the open and triggered a Grid Dollar Cost Averaging position.
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  • #153
  • Jan 28, 2026 3:21am Jan 28, 2026 3:21am
S&P 500 futures hitting ATH overnight and my positions from last night hitting TP.
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  • #154
  • Jan 28, 2026 9:46am Jan 28, 2026 9:46am
Take Profits hit on small targets today. Only took trades on the Dow Jones and S&P500. I closed the S&P position manually, I dont want to stick around for today's FOMC events. All done for today! Stay safe out there.

P.S.
Yes I got an updated EA that now displays the high, low and mid of the sessions and IB, along with the prices.
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  • #155
  • Jan 29, 2026 5:11am Jan 29, 2026 5:11am
The first-hour Initial Balance shows the market’s early consensus. A breakout above signals buying strength, below signals selling. Set the IB for your session, wait for confirmed breakouts, and use the range width for targets. Combining IB with volume and trend context reduces false signals and improves trade timing.
  • #156
  • Jan 29, 2026 6:09am Jan 29, 2026 6:09am
Quoting Zayed56
The first-hour Initial Balance shows the market’s early consensus. A breakout above signals buying strength, below signals selling. Set the IB for your session, wait for confirmed breakouts, and use the range width for targets. Combining IB with volume and trend context reduces false signals and improves trade timing.
Well put. Do you mind explaining to the rest of us how you confirm breakouts? How do you combine volume and trend context?
  • #157
  • Jan 29, 2026 9:36am Jan 29, 2026 9:36am
U.S. Indexes are TANKING today. I left a lot on the table but I met my personal daily quota so I'm good. No Dow Jones trades since I saw that spike from the over night session and the open was too mixed (NADEX session bearish, US open extremely bullish). Done for the day and just going to watch the markets dump.
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  • #158
  • Jan 29, 2026 11:22am Jan 29, 2026 11:22am
Small market update: the Dow just recouped a little over half of it's sell off from this mornings earnings reports.
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  • #159
  • Jan 30, 2026 11:00am Jan 30, 2026 11:00am
First month of the year live trading is done!
Here is my report, I am almost at the point of +100%. I was a few dollars away today but I did something stupid: didn't follow my rules and manually traded based on impulse. I've done it before and screwed myself and promised to never do it again, so don't know why I decided to break that rule today and basically ended losing a bit. Oh well. Markets looking choppy. Stay dafe out there!
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  • #160
  • Feb 2, 2026 7:22am Feb 2, 2026 7:22am
Good morning everyone! Any Mac users of MT5 having trouble with the new 5570 build? I opened it up this morning and I can't get anything to load.
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