Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Wednesday December 6 at 8:00 ET

A fresh look at AUD/CAD indicates that we have recently completed a corrective wave down, at the low of .8942, which would have been the correct entry point for a long trade to the ultimate top of this trend at about .9200. However, we can try to enter at the bottom of the small wave 2.

Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8966

Stop is .8929

Target is .9200

Risk is 43 pips

Reward is 225 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

The price should now rise to complete the long upwards trend at about .9200.

p.s. - the entry price of .8966 was just met at 8:40 ET December 6

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Previous trade experiments:

Saturday December 2, 2006 at 12:30 ET

Trade Experiment #246B Sell AUD/CAD at .9100
Stop is .9131
Target #1 is .8500
Risk is 40 pips
Reward is 591 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 14.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note that this is the third attempt to predict the turning point of this massive trend which has carried AUD/CAD up 783 pips so far. At each attempt, the reward : risk ratio increases - from 6.1 to 8.8 and now up to 14.8.

If this third attempt is successful, then the cumulative return on the three trades, based on a Risk Factor of 15%, will be .85 X .85 X 14.8 X .15 = 60%
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Friday December 1 at 10:12 ET

predicting endpoints of current uptrend of GBP/USD , etc.
AUD/CAD " .9100 (hit .9071)
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Thursday November 30 at 12:15 ET

We were stopped out of Trade Signal #246 due to several data releases that caused a strong rise in AUD/USD, and for some reason a concurrent rise in USD/CAD. If it hadn't been for these influential data releases and the unusual response of the CAD, then the original trade concept would almost surely have been successfull.

Trade Signal #246A Sell AUD/CAD at .9018
Stop is .9061
Target is .8600
Risk is 47 pips
Reward is 414 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1
For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->
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Adjust entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8973 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">Wednesday November 29 at 19:00 ET

The entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8930 was missed by only 1 pip. Upon further analysis we feel that this was only the top of Wave 3, and that another rise is possible. Therefore adjust entry price to .8973, and stop to .9006.

Adjust entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD to .8973
Adjust stop for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD to .9006

The target stays the same, so the reward : risk ratio will be increased to 6.1 : 1
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Wednesday November 29 at 8:45 ET

The trade opportunity that has been predicted for some time is very near now:
Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8930
Stop is .8961
Target is .8700
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 220 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.3 to 1
For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->
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Thursday November 23 at 21:00 ET

I will repost my previous AUD/CAD trade signal. This still looks like a fine opportunity to short at either .8880 or .8890 after a very long trend upwards that has been underway since September 28 and will have carried the price up 590 pips.
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Monday November 20 at 17:00 ET

Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8890
Stop is .8925
Target is .8660
Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 221 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.0 to 1
For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->

Note: the entry price should be reached in a few days, and as early as November 21.

Can you please verify you are referring to chf/jpy with the figures posted.

Thanks

Thanks, but you are right. The currency pair is AUD/CAD. Typo is now corrected.

Is this still your assertion? I thought I saw somewhere else that you now expect the GBP/USD to head down towards 1.9575. Which does your data seem as more likely now?

Hi 1SunDevil

I don't recall that position. Anyways, my current position is that 1.9622 is the bottom of either Wave A or Wave C. Either way, I think it's on the upswing now. If you aren't confident, then wait for a better setup, at the extremity of a range, or whatever your trading system dictates. Of course, the further a trend proceeds, the greater likelihood that it will reverse, and the more profit the other direction will contain.

If you want to search this thread to find out what has been said about a certain currency pair or topic, it's very easy this way:

to find info on a particular currency pair, employ the feature "thread tools >> search this thread" at the bottom of each page. Capitals are not necessary; the search function in not case sensitive.

Wednesday December 6 at 10:00 ET

Re-entry opportunity on Trade Experiment #277 Buy CAD/JPY at 100.13 at 100.29

p.s. - CAD/JPY fell down further to 110.16 in the Wave A, is now bouncing in Wave B, and may come down even to a slightly lower low in Wave C later.
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Previous trade experiment:

Wednesday December 6 at 7:00 ET

Retroactive Trade Experiment:

Upon careful examination CAD/JPY reached a very clear fully system compliant entry price at exactly 100.13, just a few pips lower than our conservative target of 100.30 of our short trade Trade Signal #260 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00

On a large scale, this is the very beginning of a large upwards Third Wave of an even larger upwards FIFTH WAVE.

Trade Experiment #277 Buy CAD/JPY at 100.13

Stop is 99.88

Target is 106.20

Risk is 35 pips

Reward is 597 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 17.1 to 1

For research purposes only.

<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt2"> 8:30am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">CAD</td> <td class="alt2">Building Permits</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">6.1%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">-1.0%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">-2.5%</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3224" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3224" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the number of new construction intentions. This data is a leading indicator for the construction industry since the issuance of a building permit is one of the first steps in the construction process.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 10:00am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">CAD</td> <td class="alt2">Ivey PMI</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">52.8</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">59.0</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">59.5</td></tr></thead></table>

Itme, you have suggested to go long CAD/JPY, indicating that the CAD is likely to strengthen (relative to JPY, anyway), and also to go long AUD/CAD. The AUD/USD does seem to have topped and it going down (consistent with your trade signal on 1 Dec) - does this mean that the CAD is weak, weaker than the AUD (which is weaker than the weak USD) but not as weak as the JPY? Anyway, what are the implications for the USD/CAD pair - maybe should be heading strongly up? Do you have any firm ideas of the wave count for this pair at this point?

The questions you ask, starfire, are very apt, and are essentially intermarket analysis.

I am presently so overwhelmed doing individual market analysis that I have virtually no time to entertain these considerations. However, I am working on a program which could help to sort out these relationships, and help verify predictions and identify supertrends.

Looking at AUD/USD, I was premature in calling its recent high at about .7920, and now I foresee another small continuation of its current downtrend to about .7830, followed by a final rise to about .7950 to .7975

Looking at USD/CAD, I see it rising a little more, to 1.1490 to 1.1508, followed by a fall to about 1.1300 in a flat corrective Wave 4 - C.

So - CAD and AUD will strengthen. So will JPY, CHF, GBP and EUR. But they will strengthen different amounts, and at different times, which will cause the fluctuations in the cross currency pairs. Also, the cross currency movements are caused by phase shifts in the movement cycles of the majors, and sequencing of movements.

If AUD/CAD rises, it is because AUD rises faster or sooner than CAD. That is presently occuring ( AUD is rising sooner than CAD).

If CAD/JPY rises, it is because CAD is rising either more or sooner than JPY. Perhaps CAD will rise while JPY rises less (measured as a percentage move, not in pips) or later.

Thank you Itme. Your wave count for the USD/CAD and projected wave end-points are consistent with the strong resistance area around 1.15 and also the rising trend from September (always good when different methods of analysis agree!) - though if it falls to 1.13, would most likely break through this trend line. Wave 5 of C might end up being a fizzler then (failed fifth) instead of shooting up through the 1.15 resistance.

Thanks also for your comments on the intercurrency relationships. I thought of asking about the AUD/JPY and whether this would be an even better bet as a long trade - but the wave count does not look promising (to my unskilled eye); you offered a W5 projected target (high) of 92.10 on 1 Dec, and no reason at this stage to revise it, and there are more interesting currency pairs at the moment.
Keep up the good work!

I agree, starfire.Thanks.

Wednesday December 6 at 24:000 ET

Another opportunity to jump on the long GBP/JPY trade ( Trade Experiment #271 Buy GBP/JPY at 226.65 ) may offer itself at about 226.00

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Previous trade experiments:

Re-enter Trade Experiment #271A Buy GBP/JPY at 225.74 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Wednesday December 6 at 6:30 ET

Re-enter Trade Experiment #271A Buy GBP/JPY at 225.74

Stop is 225.28

Target is 230.00

Risk is 55 pips

Reward is 417 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 7.6 to 1

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Previous trade experiment:

Tuesday December 5 at 11:00 ET

Exit Trade Experiment #271 Buy GBP/JPY at 226.65 at market price of about 226.90

After more reflection it seems probable that GBP/JPY will descend to a new low. Therefore exit at market price of about 226.90. Re-enter a long trade at the bottom of the downwards wave 5.

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Tuesday December 5 at 4:00 ET

Trade Experiment #271 Buy GBP/JPY at 226.65
Stop is 226.19
Target is 230.00
Risk is 55 pips
Reward is 326 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.9 to 1

For research purposes only

The wave hypothesis of this trade experiment is that GBP/JPY has gone up on a wave 1, 2, and 3 of Wave 5 and then down in an especially large Wave C of a wave 4 of Wave 5 down to the recent low of 226.48.

The rising GBP/USD, especially if USD/JPY also reverses and heads upwards, will cause a strong rise of GBP/JPY in its wave 5 of Wave 5 up to a new high at 230.00 or higher.

Thursday December 7 at 3:00 ET

Re-entry opportunity Trade Experiment #272B Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3470

Adjust stop to 2.3448

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Previous trade experiments:

Wednesday December 6 at 6:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity Trade Experiment #272B Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3490
Stop is 2.3458
Target is 2.3800
Risk is 47 pips
Reward is 295 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.3 to 1
For research purposes only.

Our analysis is that this trade is the fifth wave up of a large Wave C of an upwards WAVE 4.

p.s. - The entry price minus 8 of 2.3482 was met at 7:00 ET December 6
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Previous trade experiment:

Tuesday December 5 at 12:00 ET

We need to exit our long GBP/CHF trade also in anticipation of a drop produced by a strong fall in GBP/USD, and re-evaluate this strongly declining wave.

Exit Trade Experiment #272A Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3510 at market price of about 2.3515 to 2.3520.
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Tuesday December 5 at 10:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity Trade Experiment #272A Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3510
Stop is 2.3458
Target is 2.3800
Risk is 67 pips
Reward is 275 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.1 to 1

For research purposes only.

Our analysis is that this trade is the fifth wave up of a large Wave C of an upwards WAVE 4.

The price of .9075 was reached just now, which appears to be the top of wave 3, so there will be a wave 4 correction now. However, it may not be very large in this case, so we will leave it to the discretion of the trader to decide whether to risk losing profit in order to enhance profitability of this trade by exiting and re-entering at a lower price.

Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8966

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Previous trade experiment:

Wednesday December 6 at 8:00 ET

A fresh look at AUD/CAD indicates that we have recently completed a corrective wave down, at the low of .8942, which would have been the correct entry point for a long trade to the ultimate top of this trend at about .9200. However, we can try to enter at the bottom of the small wave 2.
Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8966
Stop is .8929
Target is .9200
Risk is 43 pips
Reward is 225 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.2 to 1
For research purposes only.

The price should now rise to complete the long upwards trend at about .9200.

p.s. - the entry price of .8966 was just met at 8:40 ET December 6

Thursday December 7 at 7:45 ET

RE: Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8966

Temporarily exit AUD/CAD long trade at .9087 to lock in 112 pips of profit and re-enter at the bottom of a medium sized wave 4 correction forming an A-B-C pattern. (The previous potential exit / re-entry related to a smaller order wave 4 correction.)

We estimate that the bottom of the corrective wave will be at about .9060
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Previous trade experiments:

Possible temporary exit point for Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8966 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">The price of .9075 was reached just now, which appears to be the top of wave 3, so there will be a wave 4 correction now. However, it may not be very large in this case, so we will leave it to the discretion of the trader to decide whether to risk losing profit in order to enhance profitability of this trade by exiting and re-entering at a lower price.
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Wednesday December 6 at 8:00 ET

A fresh look at AUD/CAD indicates that we have recently completed a corrective wave down, at the low of .8942, which would have been the correct entry point for a long trade to the ultimate top of this trend at about .9200. However, we can try to enter at the bottom of the small wave 2.
Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8966
Stop is .8929
Target is .9200
Risk is 43 pips
Reward is 225 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.2 to 1
For research purposes only.

The price should now rise to complete the long upwards trend at about .9200.

p.s. - the entry price of .8966 was just met at 8:40 ET December 6

Successful trade experiment:

The target for Trade Signal #254 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1300 was reached at 7:49 ET today December 7
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">
Friday November 24 at 8:30 ET
Trade Signal #254 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1300
Stop is 1.1259
Target is 1.1500
Risk is 45 pips
Reward is 196 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.3 to 1
For research purposes only.

We are trading what we believe is the fifth wave (which is a 1-2-3-4-5 ) of an upwards Wave 5.

Thursday December 7 at 7:45 ET

Trade Experiment #279 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1500

Stop is 1.1537

Target #1 is 1.1300

Risk is 41 pips

Reward is 196 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 4.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

My current wave hypthesis is that USD/CAD has risen in a large A-B-C and then descended in a downwards Wave 1 and then just finished rising in an upwards Wave 2. Now we are trading the first part of a downwards Wave 3. I have changed my mind since I stated this yesterday:

December 7 at 19:30 ET:

Looking at USD/CAD, I see it rising a little more, to 1.1490 to 1.1508, followed by a fall to about 1.1300 in a flat corrective Wave 4 - C.

On November 24 I offered a different wave count:

" We are trading what we believe is the fifth wave (which is a 1-2-3-4-5 ) of an upwards Wave 5."

Obviously, I don't have a definite idea of the larger wave count, as I haven't taken the time to sit down and contemplate it deeply. It takes me several hours usually to come up with a solid theory of the wave count. But it is still possible to make succcessful trade predictions without being certain about the correct wave count on all orders.

EUR/USD prediction : rise from current price about 1.3275 to target 1.3355 to 1.3420 (if this is Wave B in a three wave Wave 4 correction, the target will lean towards the lower value)

Alternatively: fall first to 1.3220, then rise to 1.3355 to 1.3420

Next great trade opportunity: from top of upcoming upwards fifth wave downwards.

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GBP/USD prediction : rise from current price about 1.9620 to target 1.9880 to 1.9950 (if this is Wave B in a three wave Wave 4 correction, the target will lean towards the lower value)

Alternatively: fall first to 1.9560, then rise to 1.9880 to 1.9950

Next great trade opportunity: from top of upcoming upwards fifth wave downwards.

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USD/CHF prediction : fall from current price about 1.1960 to target 1.1800 to 1.875 (if this is Wave B in a three wave Wave 4 correction, the target will lean towards the higher value)

<o></o>Alternatively: rise first to 1.1980, then fall to 1.1800 to 1.875

<o></o>Next great trade opportunity: from bottom of upcoming downwards fifth wave upwards. <!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--><!--[endif]--> <!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--> <!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--><!--[endif]--> <!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]-->

<table class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">Thu. 12/07</td> <td class="alt1"> 1:00am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Machine Tool Orders y/y</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">4.8%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">7.2%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3248" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3248" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the annual change in the value of new orders place for machine tools, which includes capital goods that are used in the production of many such products as motor vehicles and their parts, electrical products, aircrafts and their parts, and dyes and molds.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 1:45am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">CHF</td> <td class="alt1">Unemployment Rate</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">3.1%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">3.1%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">3.2%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3233" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3233" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Working people tend to spend more, and consumer spending is a major driver of the economy. However, unemployment usually draws little attention because traders view it as a lagging indicator.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 7:00am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">GBP</td> <td class="alt1">Interest Rate Statement</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">5.00%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">5.00%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">5.00%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3234" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3234" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

There is very little chance that rates will be changed

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The central bank's governing body, the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee, releases an Interest Rate Statement each month. The statement contains the latest decision regarding changes to the nation's short term interest rate ("Bank rate"). A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. What makes interest rates so important is that high rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which significantly increases demand for the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. This is what makes inflation-predicting indicators so important. Traders know that rising prices will lead the central bank to raise interest rates, which ultimately leads to a more valuable currency.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 7:45am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">EUR</td> <td class="alt1">Interest Rate Statement</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">3.50%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">3.50%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">3.25%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3235" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3235" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

There is a very strong probability of an increase in rates.

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council releases an Interest Rate Statement each month. The statement contains the latest decision regarding changes to the euro area's short term interest rate ("minimum bid rate"). A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. What makes interest rates so important is that high rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which significantly increases demand for the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. This is what makes inflation-predicting indicators so important. Traders know that rising prices will lead the central bank to raise interest rates, which ultimately leads to a more valuable currency.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 8:30am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">EUR</td> <td class="alt1">ECB President Trichet Speaks</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3236" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3236" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

2007 policy hints will be important

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet will speak at a press conference following the Governing Council's meeting in Frankfurt. The ECB Interest Rate Statement is void of commentary, so traders usually focus on Trichet's post-release press conference for clues about future rate decisions. Because these clues can sometimes be obscure, the market tends to experience heavy volatility during this press conference.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 8:30am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">Unemployment Claims</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">324K</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">325K</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">357K</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3249" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3249" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time over the past week. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Working people tend to spend more, and consumer spending is a major driver of the economy. However, unemployment usually draws little attention because traders view it as a lagging indicator.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 10:30am </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">GBP</td> <td class="alt1">Leading Index m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.1%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.2%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3250" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3250" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures overall economic health by combining ten indicators including average weekly hours, new orders, consumer expectations, housing permits, stock prices, and interest rate spreads. The Leading Index is published monthly by The Conference Board, a private US research group, but traders tend to pay little attention because the components that make up the index are reported at an earlier date.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 3:00pm </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">Consumer Credit m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-1.2B</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">3.5B</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-1.2B</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3251" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3251" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the change in outstanding consumer installment debt, such as credit cards and auto loans. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because historically consumer borrowing and spending have a high degree of correlation.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1"> 6:50pm </td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">M2+CD Money Supply y/y</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.7%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.7%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.7%


</td></tr></thead> </table>
The effect of the 8:30 ET U.S. Unemployment Claims data release was to inject volatility into the market, but no directional bias. EUR/USD and USD/CHF spiked both up and down around a median value within a 45 pip range, and GBP/USD spiked up and down within a 60 pip range.

Hi Itme,
I am very impressed in just 30 minutes of searching through this thread. I feel a little bit uneasy about it too though. Up until this point I have been trading Cad/jpy veryyy long term with very low margin playing the correation with oil and interest rates. I am looking into getting into this kind of trading also. I was just wondering if your trades often require retooling midway through or if most of the time you can place your order and check on it, say 10 hours later? between school and bball practice I don't have time to be checking my on my trades very often

I was also wondering how successful you have been. I see that you are on almost your 280th trading experiment, and i was wondering what the consesus is now on how successful it has become.

Sorry for my beginner questions, but i am extremely intriqued and i am considering trying your experiments on my demo or in extremely small margin amounts live just to get a feel for it.

Thank you