Where's The Edge?

Some nice words! I agree - I also tried your idea (in a modified version - just exiting in my setup the losses and letting the currently profitable trades run. However, it didn't really increase the outcome. Here's my current code (which can be of course modified by playing around with SL, TP and time of overall exit. Nevertheless, remmber that you'll have a hard time to make enough on FX prices when accounting for trading costs.

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the edge is the control of your emotion, if you can add constancy to a good strategy you will defectively win

Fellas here's a big, fat gold nugget.

The easiest "edge" are two super simple methods. And they are not one of those deals where you say "well that's your opinion". They work extremely well together.

1. Diagonal trend lines. If you're drawing them by connecting wicks (drawing on top of them for short or on bottom for long) then it will continue to bounce off until it crosses for a reversal. Zoom out on a higher timeframe and it's easy to see...and even easier to take action by either closing your position out or entering a new position once your candle closes past the trend line. Where traders mess it up is using it on 15 min charts all the time without zooming out and seeing what's going on on the Daily timeframe. You might be in a pullback or area of consolidation on the Daily but you're long on the 15 min. What happens next? Trade goes against you and then you conclude that trend lines suck which is completely incorrect. They are your bread and butter.
2. Diversions. I really like these on lower timeframes but they are fantastic on calling an exhausted top or bottom on a Daily timeframe. This can amount to either a reversal or a nice pullback from the existing trend. Forget the purists who say you don't need indicators. Indicators were created by professional traders to make their job easier. However, they're a lot like salt and pepper on your food...you don't focus on the salt and pepper and disregard the entire meal, they accent the meal.

Check my trade explorer on profile there is edge but broker then can create position like on my profile that
takes you only balance

This is my first post in a longer time. I won’t be posting regularly, as I’m still mostly focused on other things. Still, I wanted to share some work for the new year, based on something I actually studied over six months ago.

I’m referring to a previous post where I suggested that trends can really give you an edge. Last July, I tried to show this with a simple analysis of Japanese candlesticks. Some of you who browse my older posts may have noticed I’ve been experimenting with classifying trend strength for a while.

First, it’s important to understand that there is no universal trend. Trend strength changes depending on the timeframe. I calculate it by taking the difference between the current price and the price k ticks ago, then classify it into four downtrends (-1 to -4, with -4 strongest) and four uptrends (+1 to +4, with +4 strongest).

But there’s never just one trend - multiple trends can exist at the same time. A strong uptrend over a larger range may already have short-term downward moves, making it a poor moment to buy. Prices also can’t move endlessly within a candle due to the limits of active traders' capital. If a candle has already moved far, it’s more likely to retrace than to continue in the same direction.

In the chart below, the x-axis shows trend strength at entry, and the y-axis shows how far from the candle open I entered. I went long whenever the price was x ticks from the open. Take profit was the expected average upper wick of the candle; a trade lost if the price fell to the open before the candle closed. Colors show the average probability of success.

Only the trend at entry matters. Even with many ticks left in the candle (before it finally closes), certain trends seem to push the price to the target. This is the second or third momentum effect I’ve observed.

There’s more: entering too late or in the wrong trend often means neither take profit nor stop loss will be hit. Collecting stats on these cases helps identify when it’s better not to trade.

Looking at the chart, I also notice that for very strong downtrends (-4), the short-term trend (the number after the slash on x axis) actually seems to improve the chance of success. I think this happens because the market over-sells, allowing a quick recovery. It’s very unlikely the market closes at -4 (or +4).

Please check everything for yourselves before trusting any forum member blindly!

I don't know what the edge is, but one measure of its existence is by means of expectancy.
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Average win)-(Loss Rate × Average Loss)
A positive number means you have an edge.

I found the edge being discussed on this thread and am sharing it on the thread I recently started under the Trading system section, "FXD Harvesting Strategy" It's just about time for others to evaluate if my claims are true.

Do visit if you can find some time,

Cheers

A professional athlete needs 10.000 hours of practice before they are deemed professional, a master degree requires aprox 10.000 hours of school/studying before they receive a diploma, to master a motion requires 10.000 repetitions before it becomes intuition...

Now coming to the trading world, probably one the most difficult industries to succeed in, would you not expect the same diligence or more applied here?

The edge is in actually back-testing and demo trading before you deposit any money, it sounds boring but this is the shortcut -free, easy and stress-free.

Compared to the detour most took(including me), which was getting hurt, losing money and sleep only to swear to never trade again before coming back 2-3 months later.

Most want a bot, indicator, or something external to formulate their trade for them - 95% of traders dont withdraw money consistently.
The fewest want to back-test, demo trade, learn to read price before trading with real money - the few that are actually consistent profitable.

Trading with money teaches you many lessons, its very important part of your evolution as a trader, but these lessons are not learned until you are actually in the right stage, they just become pain and loss of money.

RR doesn’t create an edge — it expresses one
This is the part most traders get backwards.
RR is a payoff structure
Edge is a probability advantage
You can choose any RR you want:
3:1
1.5:1
1:1
But RR does not increase your chance of being right.
It only decides how much you get paid when you are.
In fact:
Higher RR → lower natural win rate
Lower RR → higher natural win rate
So when traders say “I’ll just increase RR,” they’re often:
lowering win rate without adding edge
Where real profitability lives (the expectancy equation)
Everything collapses into one truth:
Your edge pushes Win% above baseline
Your RR controls AvgWin vs AvgLoss
Edge affects win rate more directly
RR affects distribution and variance

Is having a Trader-centric broker considered an edge, in relation to trading Styles and efficiency of Traexecution?

The edge is Risk.
In Forex, the next tick is unknown, the next minute, the next hour, etc.
Big banks know only order in their books, but not from other banks. So they are in the same boat then us. Obviously way more advantage. As we do not fill orders and they do.
So, forex is a 50/50 less spread/commission game. Each entry is the same.
Trying to find an edge via indicators, volume, market close or any other means in pointless.
What is left? math, logic, facts. For example. Correlation do exist. say eurusd /eurgbp euro in common. Find in the history, say 5 years, the biggest/smaller gap between the 2 pairs . now the gap is 1,3565-1,1836= 1729 pips ; so find the biggest and smaller gap and you have a celling of movement, whatever that is, divide it by X pips. Say 40 pips.
Now you assume the "gap" would retrace to 1729 , so if gap increases by 40 pips, sell eurusd buy the eurgbp , if gap decreases by 40 pips, do the reverse. every 40 pips, do the same . Basically you are averaging down the gap.
Risk? Yes, Bullet proof ?No, but you are minimizing risk by facts. Lot, number of levels, gap pips, all up to you. Depending in the risk you want to take

Kindly see a contribution below. i pray this provides alternative guidance and Insight on our route to repeated and continued Profitability as traders.. Bless! The Lord Amen!

https://chatgpt.com/share/699763df-0...0-bcd45c47ce4c

so may thigns have been discussed here, so many points mentioned...but here is what I think.
The edge is everywhre. It is in fundamentals, in technicals, in social trading, in charts, in earnings, in breakouts...
However, finding it is a challenge.
To be more practical, in order to get "your" edge u need to apply math. Take a system, do thousands of backetsts, lietreally, not 100, not 500, but 1k+! And test in all market conditions.
For example, suppoer you wanna trade 15-min tiem frame QQQ. Great. U saw some resistance valudation during two days and think it is gonna work? Wrong, go back ...not just days, weeks, but monhhts. Pull the data from 2000 till now. Run the tests, check every single day! See, where you d enter and see hot it went?
U think u r genius in late 1990s or 2021? How about 2000-2001 and 2022? These are bear markets period. Yes, test ut system in all market condiitns : bear market, inflationary, deflationary, huge daily siwngs in indices like flash crash....ONLY like that U ll get ur EDGE!