Only EURUSD

EU might extend to 1.1580 - 200 ma or 1.1555/50. 1.1661 short term resistance is holding down for now.

The EUR/USD is trading near the broken support of 1.1615 after a temporary dip below 1.1600, reaching 1.1593. The pair is now consolidating with a downside bias below the 1.1641 and 1.1661 resistance levels. If the recent low is breached, the next targets should be 1.1586/82 and 1.1555/50.

Daily volatility (range) 38 pips

Significant news - US Industrial Production

Have a great day!

1H

EURUSD H1
trendlines, pattern
1.16143–1.16180 is a reaction zone.

LEVEL 1.16342 – 1.16353 = BOS DOWN

(H4 + H1 practically overlap here)
That is a fact — we agree on that.
WHAT THIS MEANS
Bias
TREND = DOWN
LONGS are against structure
PRIORITY = SHORT
This is the foundation.
As long as price is BELOW this zone, short is the default.

Function of the 1.16342–1.16353 level
This zone is:
STRUCTURAL RESISTANCE (flip from support to resistance)
a “line in the sand” for short bias
In other words:

1. below it → market is in distribution / downtrend continuation
2. above it → short bias starts to be questioned

How to trade it (practically)
SCENARIO A – ideal (what you want to see)

1. price returns to 1.1634–1.1635
2. does NOT close above
3. on M5/M15:
   1. rejection
   2. weak pullback
   3. micro BOS DOWN / CHOCH DOWN

   
   

SCALP SHORT

1. SL: above the zone
2. TP: new low / expansion

SCENARIO B – warning

1. H1 closes ABOVE 1.16353
2. pullback holds from above

CANCEL SCALP SHORTS
wait, do not chase
This is not a long signal, but:
the end of easy short scalps

What it is NOT
And this is important:
not an automatic short entry
not a “sell market” level
not a main H4 resistance
It is:
a reaction level for continuation

EURUSD H1

1.16142 – 1.16030 REACTION ZONE
From above it CAN become a scalp LONG zone, but only under precise conditions.
WHERE WE ARE NOW (based on the screenshot)

1. trend: H1 / H4 = DOWN
2. we are below BOS DOWN
3. price is in the lower part of the range after a downside impulse

The 1.16142–1.16030 zone is:

1. the last breakdown cluster
2. a place of absorption after BOS DOWN
3. a short-term decision block

it is not a trend support, but a reaction zone

WHEN IT IS A SCALP LONG ZONE
Only if the market shows ACCEPTANCE of the zone from above.
Specifically, the following MUST happen:

1. M15/H1 close ABOVE 1.16142
2. a pullback that:
   1. holds above 1.16142
   2. does not sweep 1.16030

   
   
   

3. micro structure:
   1. higher low
   2. CHOCH UP on M5/M15

   
   
   

then:

1. scalp long

Targets:

1. first = 1.1628–1.1635
2. max = scalp line / micro R

WHEN IT IS NOT A LONG ZONE
If:

1. price only wicks into the zone
2. cannot close above 1.16142
3. forms upper wicks
4. or makes BOS DOWN below 1.16030

the zone remains:

1. only a pullback zone for SHORTS
2. short continuation

A reaction zone becomes support or resistance only after the market confirms it through behavior.

pic2 = H1 trendlines

DXY H1
trendlines, pattern

this is bad for DXY

DXY H1 – current state
Context

1. Price is in the upper part of a rising channel
2. We are below the reaction zone ~99.04
3. A rejection from above occurred (wicks + weak return)

Why SHORT bias

1. We failed to hold above 99.04 → rejection
2. Micro structure is no longer making HHs
3. Price is breaking back into the range

This is typical behavior for distribution / pullback short
WHEN THE SHORT IS VALID (specifically)
Watch 98.94 – 98.98:
SHORT confirmed if:

1. H1 close below 98.94
2. Pullback back to 98.94–99.00
3. Rejection → continuation down

Logical targets:

1. middle of the channel
2. lower trendline (~98.6 → 98.4)

EURUSD × DXY – current relationship
We CAN move UP from the reaction zone on EURUSD, IF:

1. DXY H1 rejects the move higher (rejection below 99.04)
2. DXY does NOT print an H1 close above 99.04
3. DXY starts a micro BOS DOWN / shows weakness

then EURUSD has room for a reaction bounce (scalp long)

DXY H1
98.94 SUPPORT

DXY – level 98.95
Why it looks like support

1. multiple reactions / wicks around 98.94–98.98
2. price paused here after a downside impulse
3. short-term balancing is taking place

technically = a reaction zone
But WARNING – what it is NOT
not a confirmed higher-TF support
not a trend support
not a long level by itself
It is:

1. a micro / intraday support within a possible distribution

How to work with it
Scenario A – support holds (short-term)
If:

1. DXY does not close H1 below 98.94
2. M15 CHOCH UP forms

DXY:

1. moves into a pullback higher (99.00–99.04)

EURUSD:

1. can make a scalp bounce down from its reaction zone

Scenario B – support fails (more important)
If:

1. H1 closes below 98.94
2. the following pullback fails to reclaim 98.94

DXY:

1. confirms BOS DOWN
2. moves toward 98.7 / 98.5

EURUSD:

1. reaction zone fails
2. trend up

Key sentence
98.95 is ONLY a reaction support for now, not a decisive S.
The decisive factor is the H1 close

SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT SITUATION (EURUSD + DXY)
Market state NOW

1. EURUSD: price is in a reaction zone (1.1614–1.1603)
2. DXY: price is in a reaction zone (~98.95)
3. neither market has confirmed direction yet

the market is in a decision / equilibrium phase

My opinion
At the moment, it slightly leans toward a DXY drop and a move higher in EURUSD,
BUT still without confirmation. It’s an edge, not a signal.

We might see some short squeeze because its Friday and trading should start from Tuesday again 'cause Monday is a US Bank holiday so I expect ranging conditions to be met. 1.1641 and 1.1593 +/- should hold the pair.

you literally could feel the tension before the collapse...

Done for this week my friends.

12 minutes - RR 1:3,59

...still here - found a vaild reversal...

Will have to close for the week. I wish you a great weekend anyway you spend it!

The EUR/USD closed down for a third consecutive week. After breaking 1.1700 the previous week, sellers maintained momentum below that round number, reaching 1.1584 once 1.1600 also gave way. The pair recovered a few pips but still closed below the 1.1615/00 previous range low. For now, this lower range must hold for bearish momentum to continue toward 1.1555 and 1.1515/00. However, if the pair opens and advances above the broken range and the 1.1627 short-term resistance, I expect a correction to test the 1.1655/61 resistance zone with a scope the 1.1678/98 & 1.1700 resistance levels if the momentum is strong.


Weekly volatility (range) 82 pips

Significant news - US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP QoQ, US PCE & EU/US PMI'S


Have a great weekend!


Daily

1585-87 supporting for now but if bear trend continues we should see 1550-60 area next

didnt get to 1560 area but close. And now 1620 is taken. If bear in control we should start seeing a drop

The EUR/USD dropped to 1.1576 but has since recovered and is trading above the 1.1593–1.1600 range following the market opening, amid threats of U.S. tariffs on Greenland theme. For now, the 1.1637 resistance level seems to be holding, however, the pair might move higher toward 1.1655/61 and the R1 weekly level, which coincides with the short-term downward daily trendline. If the pair falls below the aforementioned support zone, 1.1576 and 1.1555/50 are the next levels to watch.


Daily volatility (range) 37 pips


Have a great week!

1H

my entry plane in Eurusd in 1h this is swing trade

Breakout?