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The Swamp

  • #126,241
  • Jan 13, 2026 7:49am Jan 13, 2026 7:49am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} I like the design of the second video. Looking at the Florida boats and condos while at the same time listening to him tell about how about a big part of condo market and wealth is gona evaporate is a good combination for watching the whole video. Don't know how they are gona get the money for any of it. Seems like open territory for vulture capitalists, but even they i think have to pay for demolition and sanitation? don't know if that's cheap in the U.S but here in Sweden very expensive. Wonder if the same concrete problem exist here....
Modern man just has to use the concrete the romans used in the places where saltwater intrudes. No rebar was needed. The concrete was better for saltwater. I don't know if it would work on high rises. The coliseum and other structures are much older than Surfside was.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,242
  • Jan 13, 2026 7:54am Jan 13, 2026 7:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah 1665/64 didn't let it this time. But the day structure remained bearish to try again after the bounce. Its likely to be drawn to 1680 or more in the next 6hs. That's not a lot of pip from here. It is a higher place to fall from. {image}
It tried to reach 1680.. it was slapped down.
It may try again for 1680. Its acting like it will fall after LC, or if its not even going to make it to 1680.
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  • #126,243
  • Jan 13, 2026 8:17am Jan 13, 2026 8:17am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Very interesting as always Gator i thought it was only aging concrete, not a whole chemical reaction! Don't know if you have any earthquakes in that area too? also i thought about resonance in the plumbing. That 2021 building collapse looked terrifying! I'm frequently visiting an athletic facility here in Sweden and it was built in the 1950s or 40s i believe. No problem with salt though. Got some insider knowledge from repairmen how bad the concrete is in that building, now i see they installed some kind of alarms in the building without...
Metallurgy is not my specialty. I'm not a structural engineer. I have noticed, rebar in wet salty conditions seems to expand. The concretes around it seems to detach from the expanding rebar (cracks the concrete, making it able easily to visually see the exposed rebar) . They will incase patch and incase these weak spots. It looks like no more than a Band-Aid to me. Just so people don't see the structure is failing. The same design is in seaside buildings around the world. The ones in seaside earthquake prone zones I hope have a corrosion fix. If you want to be a billionaire, solve the retrofit problem.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,244
  • Jan 13, 2026 9:35am Jan 13, 2026 9:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It tried to reach 1680.. it was slapped down. It may try again for 1680. Its acting like it will fall after LC, or if its not even going to make it to 1680. {image}
Its safe to say 1680 is not in the cards with 30 minutes left. I thought if it got a foot under 1639 it may accelerate. I see 1639 and 1637 as a possible bounce. I think they could just be a speed bump.
It isn't over till its over. Back below 1639 is a big deal this week. I think eventually 1617/1593.3 supports will be tested. Clear a 12h below these and 1510 opens a chance to test its support.
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  • #126,245
  • Jan 13, 2026 10:38am Jan 13, 2026 10:38am
I need 1639 to cement as R
Its after LC now. The 12h did suggest a push down..
If its solid the normal retrace to 1651 may not happen, or it may just wick there tomorrow.
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  • #126,246
  • Jan 13, 2026 11:21pm Jan 13, 2026 11:21pm
the 6h on the bear side. The 12h usually follows.. it looks like 1617/1593 may be tested
A 1h close below 1637 may be a sign for fall.
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  • #126,247
  • Jan 14, 2026 12:47am Jan 14, 2026 12:47am
Quoting gatorinla
the 6h on the bear side. The 12h usually follows.. it looks like 1617/1593 may be tested A 1h close below 1637 may be a sign for fall.
yea I am also waiting for a close below 1637 to signal a fall then it should sub below 1600 next
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,248
  • Edited 5:58am Jan 14, 2026 5:42am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} hold on
The 12h and 6h did agree on a day bearish close structure. The problem for me is the 12h close is above 1639. That is a mixed sign. It may indicate 1639 will be tested. But it is still a support as is 1637. Until taken with sustained closes below
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  • #126,249
  • Edited 11:04am Jan 14, 2026 9:32am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Modern man just has to use the concrete the romans used in the places where saltwater intrudes. No rebar was needed. The concrete was better for saltwater. I don't know if it would work on high rises. The coliseum and other structures are much older than Surfside was.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTalK...J3cXVjamxrdQ==
If you can view it.. You may get scared
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,250
  • Jan 14, 2026 10:04pm Jan 14, 2026 10:04pm
a 6h close below 1639... the 6h closed bearish, of course it may be attracted to 1659. But it has to get back above 1639..It may not be able too.
the 12h usually follows the 6h the next day.
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  • #126,251
  • Jan 15, 2026 6:04am Jan 15, 2026 6:04am
I think the year closed on the bear side. I think the Powell news did help with the early week rise. I placed a trajectory near Jan 1, with an average month range stopping on jan 31. this is what it looks like. It looks to be on schedule.
An ADR and a AWR is visible.
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  • #126,252
  • Jan 15, 2026 7:05am Jan 15, 2026 7:05am
back to 1617.. It will need a 12h close below to break the 12h up trend. Another may require the same at 1593.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,253
  • Jan 15, 2026 7:08am Jan 15, 2026 7:08am
Quoting gatorinla
back to 1617.. It will need a 12h close below to break the 12h up trend. Another may require the same at 1593.
It may need to use 1639 as a R.. It may give another chance
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  • #126,254
  • Jan 15, 2026 7:25am Jan 15, 2026 7:25am
if it gets a foothold below 1593 and the 12h close below 1617. It may make 1593 area a /resistance when fighting the 1510 day support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,255
  • Jan 15, 2026 7:31am Jan 15, 2026 7:31am
Quoting gatorinla
a 6h close below 1639... the 6h closed bearish, of course it may be attracted to 1659. But it has to get back above 1639..It may not be able too. the 12h usually follows the 6h the next day. {image}
It may not come back to 1639..It may be a short if it does.
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  • #126,256
  • Jan 15, 2026 7:33am Jan 15, 2026 7:33am
on the way up 1606.7 was a important month R.. It may have some residual memory support
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  • #126,257
  • Jan 15, 2026 7:39am Jan 15, 2026 7:39am
I think pa is bearish on the year close.. I will not tell you to long. Today is bearish to me too. I closed some.. waiting to short again,
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  • #126,258
  • Jan 15, 2026 8:46am Jan 15, 2026 8:46am
I closed my shorts..
I want to see what happens with 1593ish.
I possible can shot 1639ish again
I think pa needs a 12h close below 1617 and 1593.
The R for this week since under now may be 1639.
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  • #126,259
  • Jan 15, 2026 10:44am Jan 15, 2026 10:44am
I dont know if it will be stopped earlier than 1639. But I think its a decent resistance. Before it 1617 and some smaller ma's can stop a rise. Since ADR is about 50 pips. A bounce should be less 1646x. If wrong about the bear, 1646 often is the cutoff, and can be R.. along with 1639. It may stop earlier.
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  • #126,260
  • Jan 15, 2026 5:57pm Jan 15, 2026 5:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
I closed my shorts.. I want to see what happens with 1593ish. I possible can shot 1639ish again I think pa needs a 12h close below 1617 and 1593. The R for this week since under now may be 1639. {image}
It bounced at 1593,, back to 1617.. I cant say it may not bounce a little higher.. Maybe 1627/39 area. The 12h trend support at 1617 has broken. But there is another at 1593. I cant say it will not bounce to 1662. But on the week 1639 should be strong R now (if bearish is should not wick much higher than 1639). 1662 can be 6h resistance. Between 166x and 1593 is 1627. Since 1617 has expired, it may reach into 1627+. I had a little long earlier and closed it.. I'm not starring at the chart.. The trajectory (trend line) line is aimed for a month range. Since 1593 has not broken, I have to think 1639 and 1662 is possible until. But once below 1693 with some momentum. 1410 and 1416 have support value. !504 about 1/2 of it.
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