Amyc Trade Journal

long GU at 156.50 . 3 day mid at 156.56. This week soon after the monthly open GU went down to the weekly lows at 155.87.
GU stopped 3 pips past them at 155.84. This current entry Im looking for GU to reach the 5 day highs at 158.02
I need confirmation of this trade with GU trading above the 5 daily mid at 156.82.

GPB/USD close to weekly 61 Fib at 139.91 and 5 week 50% weekly highs at 139.88. loooking for shorts at these levels.
5 x daily 61% highs at 139.68 and price has already exceedly this high by 1 pip today.

also angles from Michael S Jenkins teaching the last level is 139.86

AUD CHF 5 x weekly lows and 5 mins angles long trade . entry at 0.6692 and 0.6697
weekly and H4 lows holding close enough. and now almost at the H4 midpoint

GBP/USD 5 x daily mid at 1.3877

USDJPY H1
AUDCAD H1
USDCAD H1
USDCAD H4

NZDJPY long off 3 day mid and 3 weekly lows
2nd chart 80 pip range bars. 160 pips completed from the low at the moment

NZDJPY exited +99 pips near monthly mid.
There was a mistake in the middle range bar chart. it was not updated correctly from yesterdays high

Amy wrote

Its a system I have put together myself using Fibonacci Trader.

It's very simple, it is made up of weekly PP and a calculation that provides a similar weekly high/low to weekly R1/S1. These are the green lines. The yellow lines are the same thing but monthly.

My system is a discretionary one that is made up of my observations of how price behaves between these lines, for eg if price opens the week below the weekly pp it will move to weekly lows, same for monthly.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...93#post3578093

yellow lines on my chart are monthly highs, mid and lows
green lines are weekly highs, mid and lows.

Amy wrote
for me speculating on direction is an integral part of my trading system and is the difference between me being a breakeven trader and a profitable one.
If I don't know whether the market is moving to the monthly highs or lows then I don't know whether to buy support or sell resistance. It makes a massive difference to the probability of the trades, for example if price is moving up to the monthly highs then buying support has around a 90% chance of the trade working out while selling resistance during this move your probability drops to around 30%.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...07#post3821907

The price element is based on Frank's system, but i am using a timing system i have come up with. The trades in this strategy are based primarily on time, with price used to define an entry point. (frank dilernia market trading market timing book)

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...39#post7016339

Its not MT4, I make my charts in a program called fibonacci trader. If you want to calculate the blue ranges they are the exact same calculations as I use for the weekly and monthly ranges but they are based on the past 3 weeks instead of one week.

I find 1 week ranges are good for giving a target for the week. While the 3 week ranges provide good swings within the bigger trend.

So to calculate the ranges

the blue midpoint is just a pivot point based on the last 3 weeks
then to calculate the highs take the range of the last 3 weeks multiply by 50% then add to the pivot point and you have the first high. Do the same again but multiply by 0.618 and you have the 2nd high.

This is the same as the chart of the S&P with the green highs and lows that I posted yesterday and today.

It can probably be coded to mt4 if you knew what you were doing I guess but I am not good at stuff like that.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...62#post3808062

AU is heading for next weeks green highs, I picked up some longs yesterday and today that I want to try and hold to that point. Once those highs are hit there should be a reversal down to the weekly lows. This can happen in the same week or it can move down and open the following week under the weekly pp and sell down into that weeks weekly lows. From there the next trend will be defined, it will either move up and do another 3 weeks up or move back to 81. The open on 1 July should clarify this move.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...69#post3811469

Amy wrote
The way I look at money management is I say when I win I want to get the most I possibly can, so to do that I need to trade as many contracts as possible. So say you decide you are willing to risk 1% of your account per trade then every single trade you take will either result in a 1% loss or a profit of an unknown amount.

(My sl amount is much less than 1%. I could probably increase it but I know how easy it is to have a bad day and suddenly 5% of your account would be gone at 1%.)

Once you've chosen an entry then you need to chose a stop loss that is as tight as possible so that you can buy the largest amount of contracts you can get for 1%.

The only important number when you trade is the win/loss ratio, ie how much you win when you win and how much you lose when you lose. If you can get this number above 5 then it is almost impossible to be a losing trader unless your entries are consistently bad.

Doing it this way I take a lot of small losses, over the course of the year I average around 50% winners. But if each time you win you make 5 times what you lose then that is a very good outcome.

I trade mostly off the daily timeframe which is how I manage to make the average win so big. One account is for trades that are held for 1-5 days and the other is for those with monthly targets.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...55#post3811655

Amy wrote
For later in the week once 8834 is hit au will have moved to the green lows 3 weeks in a row, that means that next week has a high probability of being an upweek into the green highs.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...52#post3967952

Amy wrote
Also another reason I favour shorts is that au has now been to the weekly highs 3 weeks in a row, once this has happened it will almost always visit the lows next week no matter where price has closed.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...15#post3928915

I think the last 2 posts I made here, show a possible cycle Amy found.
3 weeks breaking the weekly lows then the next week up to the weekly highs.
3 weeks breaking the weekly highs then the next week down to the weekly lows.

calcuating the mid highs and lows.
for UJ last week was
high 158.186
low 156.110
close 157.938
add these 3 numbers together , then divide the total by 3
so 472.238 divided by 3 equals 157.41
157.41 is the weekly mid

then take the range of the week which was 207.6
207.6 x 50% equals 103.8
so add 103.8 to each side of the mid to get the 50% highs and lows
50% high is 158.448
50% low is 156.372

then take the range again of the week 207.6
207.6 x 61.8% equals 128.29
so add 128.29 to each side of the mid to get the 61.8% highs and lows
61.8% high is 158.693
61.8% low is 156.127

chart should look like the one below on H4 with 5 green lines over this weeks chart.

do the same calculations again for the month
and put the 5 yellow lines over this month chart.

so for UJ for last month was
high 157.755
low 154.338
close 156.671
add these 3 numbers together , then divide the total by 3
so 468.764 divided by 3 equals 156.25
156.25 is the monthly mid

then take the range of the month which was 343.7
343.7 x 50% equals 171.85
so add 171.85 to each side of the mid to get the 50% highs and lows
50% high is 157.968
50% low is 154.531

then take the range again of the month 343.7
343.7 x 61.8% equals 212.4
so add 212.4 to each side of the mid to get the 61.8% highs and lows
61.8% high is 158.374
61.8% low is 154.126

UJ highs lows and mid on H4
monthly and weekly for Dec until now

The more you study past records the surer you are to be able to detect the trend of the future.
Past price levels are related to future price levels by some mathematical figure
W.D GANN

The thing with trends is they always move along with cycles, so if you can figure out the trend, you'll catch the cycle and vice versa
Thtpro
Walter Bressert cycles

weekly divergence between AU and NU. it was the monthly open last week very significant
price opened below the monthly mid, so It was headed for the monthly lows.
It also opened below the weekly mid and opened down at the weekly lows so I thought what is it going to do.
As it is already at the weekly lows.
then I realised it has to go to the monthly lows. I waited and price moved up before I could short.
the secret was there was an 80 pip range bar top that closed at 71.19 and the high was 71.22
when direction is known because of weekly/monthly open then the 80 pip range bar top was a high probablity short.
another example is this week last 2 charts there was an 80 pip range bar bottom on AU blue box both charts
AU opened gap down near the weekly lows and closed an 80 pip range bar bottom.