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The Swamp

  • #126,221
  • Jan 11, 2026 11:31pm Jan 11, 2026 11:31pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} he will do everything he can to weaken the dollars as part of his economic plan…. With this outlook in mind, i am still finding it hard to be bullish for usd in a long term. But i do like to see some usd strength in the first half of the year. Maybe Q1.
Look at Florida already.. The people who bought a home3 years back are already near 30% underwater. That affects all of the home owners.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,222
  • Jan 11, 2026 11:38pm Jan 11, 2026 11:38pm
its looking bullish.. into the ADR... Will the ADR push it down?
So far 1653x is holding like the 6h pointed it would and the 12h normally follows the 6h.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,223
  • Edited Jan 12, 2026 12:02am Jan 11, 2026 11:49pm | Edited Jan 12, 2026 12:02am
Quoting johncen
{quote} he will do everything he can to weaken the dollars as part of his economic plan…. With this outlook in mind, i am still finding it hard to be bullish for usd in a long term. But i do like to see some usd strength in the first half of the year. Maybe Q1.
He fucked the farmers with China trade. This is what happens when you stick your dumbass in the market. He is doing the same thing with oil. 50$ oil and less will screw Texas and the oil producing states. This isn't new, it happened in the 1980s. On top of the highest bankruptcies already since 2008. That's just the facts.. Its easy to look up. Everything he touches turns to shit. Florida is one state that will really be fucked. They got lucky last year with few hurricanes. Insurance is heading one way, its not down. Now they kicked out the guys putting the roofs on. One or 2 hurricanes without the labor to rebuild. Means it all cost more. Supply verses demand 101.. On a 250K home the insurance is well over 1k per month. many middle class are paying 2k and 3k for insurance each month. The math don't work. They will be forced to walk away. Bankruptcies are coming out the ass.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,224
  • Jan 12, 2026 12:10am Jan 12, 2026 12:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} He fucked the farmers with China trade. This is what happens when you stick your dumbass in the market. He is doing the same thing with oil. 50$ oil and less will screw Texas and the oil producing states. This isn't new, it happened in the 1980s. On top of the highest bankruptcies already since 2008. That's just the facts.. Its easy to look up. Everything he touches turns to shit. Florida is one state that will really be fucked. They got lucky last year with few hurricanes. Insurance is heading one way, its not down. Now they kicked out...
yup economic outlook in the states doesnt look very promising. Election coming in this year and Republican may lose control over the house. He may be forced to change his policies or at least do things the normal way
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,225
  • Jan 12, 2026 12:11am Jan 12, 2026 12:11am
Quoting gatorinla
its looking bullish.. into the ADR... Will the ADR push it down? So far 1653x is holding like the 6h pointed it would and the 12h normally follows the 6h. {image}
there are rooms to push the price higher this week. We need the bear to kick in at some point. If not the current level next to be 1683
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,226
  • Jan 12, 2026 12:17am Jan 12, 2026 12:17am
Quoting johncen
{quote} he will do everything he can to weaken the dollars as part of his economic plan…. With this outlook in mind, i am still finding it hard to be bullish for usd in a long term. But i do like to see some usd strength in the first half of the year. Maybe Q1.
When they take your labor off the farm, ranch and meat packing. What could possibly go wrong. That's the real reason. The plants were being raided. I let my fields weed up because i had no labor.
Tyson Foods is closing its beef processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska, effective January 20, 2026, due to financial losses and a shrinking national cattle supply, impacting thousands of workers and local economies by creating job losses and increased freight costs for cattle producers. The closure of this major employer, vital to Nebraska's large beef industry, creates significant economic uncertainty and a "logistics nightmare" for moving cattle, with concerns about repurposing the large facility, similar to a vacant plant in Norfolk, Nebraska, from 2006.
Key Details:

  1. Company: Tyson Foods.
  2. Location: Lexington, Nebraska.
  3. Closure Date: January 20, 2026.
  4. Reason: Significant operating losses in the beef division and a severe shortage in the U.S. cattle herd, partly due to drought.
  5. Impact:

    1. Jobs: Hundreds of employees losing their jobs, impacting nearly a third of Lexington's population.
    2. Economy: A major blow to the local economy and the wider Nebraska beef industry, with increased transportation costs for cattle producers.
    3. Community: A cultural hub for many immigrant families, with questions about the future of the facility and the community.



Broader Context:
https://www.google.com/search?q=nebr...t=gws-wiz-serp

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,227
  • Jan 12, 2026 12:30am Jan 12, 2026 12:30am
Quoting johncen
{quote} there are rooms to push the price higher this week. We need the bear to kick in at some point. If not the current level next to be 1683
Its above 1639, it looks sustained above. Plus above 1654. That's not bearish to me.
It could change below those.. Its just not there now. It should of wicked and dropped to remain bearish. I'm not saying its bullish below 1743. Powell news digestion.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,228
  • Jan 12, 2026 12:46am Jan 12, 2026 12:46am
Yea… it has room to go higher.
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,229
  • Jan 12, 2026 5:33am Jan 12, 2026 5:33am
Quoting johncen
Yea… it has room to go higher. {image}
I or my chart didn't anticipate the Powel news. I believe this will spook the other markets. He cant fire Powel without cause. He is trying to invent cause. Powel looks prepared to fight back. Fighting back takes time. Meanwhile the headline for financial markets will see this. Trump is destroying the mostly entire stable market and financial progress since 1933. Almost 100 years worth. At the same time he is destroying NATO. Gold looks like it has a long way to go, if he don't stroke out soon. I have no doubt bankers are using speed dial this morning.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,230
  • Jan 12, 2026 5:50am Jan 12, 2026 5:50am
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,231
  • Jan 12, 2026 7:25am Jan 12, 2026 7:25am
The 12h did aline with the 6h earlier.
Maybe some R 1699.5ish. The 12h did point up. ADR was at 1669x.
1653 has some day b/o support for the bulls. Its likely bullish above on the day. 1639 has a chance to attract. -1639 has a chance to fall. The Powell news changed things.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,232
  • Jan 12, 2026 9:32am Jan 12, 2026 9:32am
Quoting gatorinla
The 12h did aline with the 6h earlier. Maybe some R 1699.5ish. The 12h did point up. ADR was at 1669x. 1653 has some day b/o support for the bulls. Its likely bullish above on the day. 1639 has a chance to attract. -1639 has a chance to fall. The Powell news changed things.
it looks too far for 1639 before this hour. Not enough time or attraction. If it makes it back to 53 or 39. they can support. Bears are likely back if pa get a gets foothold below 1639. It looks bullish today, but its already beyond adr.
It shorted there.. it may be time to take some profit.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,233
  • Jan 12, 2026 11:56am Jan 12, 2026 11:56am
now pa is below 1683x. I favor down.. with 1643/44 39 support needing to give up to test 28.. a 12h close below 1617.. clears 12h support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,234
  • Jan 12, 2026 5:19pm Jan 12, 2026 5:19pm
I have a bear b/o after the next 6h close below 1664 (and sustained), for the South. But before the 6h close -1653 sustained below is more neutral, bear b/o -1628 sustained. It likely to be bearish sustained below 1639 anyway. with the same 1606/17 supportive.. 1592 is another. It would likely be choppy until a day could close below 1510. Any anti Powell comment could force a rise.

On the bull side any of these above can support. The day close was slightly above the 1665 6h support. A bullish b/o would need to sustain above Monday's high.. Sustained above 1692.1 leans bullish.. its also a R area.

The year closed bearish to me. I think the Powell news added 40 ish pips to today's bounce. And also stopped a deeper move maybe to 1592 testing. Even if the next 6h close is -1681, If the 12h follows like normal. It should press lower. Above 1682 on the other hand point to the next day pressing the highs of today. With a possible bullish b/o..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,235
  • Jan 12, 2026 5:23pm Jan 12, 2026 5:23pm
keep and eye 1664/65.. it will support or break. its the same 6h as before.. the 4h is in the high today area
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,236
  • Jan 12, 2026 10:04pm Jan 12, 2026 10:04pm
the 6h set up the 12h if what happens most times works. LC can bring it to 1680 again. But 1664/65 may not let it to go there. The 6h indicates the 12h will drop. To me its in sell the bounce mode. If it is allowed to get below 1639.. That looks like a test of 1617..

here below 1664 is under a bear b/o level.. It may resist.,,
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,237
  • Jan 13, 2026 4:04am Jan 13, 2026 4:04am
Quoting gatorinla
the 6h set up the 12h if what happens most times works. LC can bring it to 1680 again. But 1664/65 may not let it to go there. The 6h indicates the 12h will drop. To me its in sell the bounce mode. If it is allowed to get below 1639.. That looks like a test of 1617.. here below 1664 is under a bear b/o level.. It may resist.,, {image} {image}
still choppy pa with no clear direction
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,238
  • Jan 13, 2026 4:10am Jan 13, 2026 4:10am
Quoting gatorinla
the 6h set up the 12h if what happens most times works. LC can bring it to 1680 again. But 1664/65 may not let it to go there. The 6h indicates the 12h will drop. To me its in sell the bounce mode. If it is allowed to get below 1639.. That looks like a test of 1617.. here below 1664 is under a bear b/o level.. It may resist.,, {image} {image}
the 12h close did not close under 1665.. It did close below 1680/81.. It looks like it will bounce. Later it may return to retest 1664x again. day wise it didn't hold -1665 on this 6h/12h try, but its likely to retry. LC is the next 6h candle close.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,239
  • Jan 13, 2026 4:15am Jan 13, 2026 4:15am
Quoting johncen
{quote} still choppy pa with no clear direction
Yeah 1665/64 didn't let it this time. But the day structure remained bearish to try again after the bounce. Its likely to be drawn to 1680 or more in the next 6hs. That's not a lot of pip from here. It is a higher place to fall from.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,240
  • Jan 13, 2026 6:37am Jan 13, 2026 6:37am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} I like the design of the second video. Looking at the Florida boats and condos while at the same time listening to him tell about how about a big part of condo market and wealth is gona evaporate is a good combination for watching the whole video. Don't know how they are gona get the money for any of it. Seems like open territory for vulture capitalists, but even they i think have to pay for demolition and sanitation? don't know if that's cheap in the U.S but here in Sweden very expensive. Wonder if the same concrete problem exist here....
Concrete is just a hard sponge. Water passes through it. In this case its salt water. Salt water oxygen and bar rebar steel don't mix for a structure. All those buildings are made with steel rebar where every storm and even wind puts salt in them. Even when it was exposed on the construction sight. They built thousands in the last 50 years. They are all on a timeclock. Even incasing them now don't remove the salt. When I was younger we connected all the seawall steel together. To have Cathodic protection, with a sacrifice anode connected to a power source. This was uncoated steel rusty the day is was driven into the ground. It seems to work. Those buildings built was drug money never had that protection. I don't know how you retrofit that in one now. The steel is already incased with concrete. Each bar would need to be wired. That has to be very expensive even if it can be done. Miami is built on porous coral. The salt water naturally comes out the ground. It gets inside the pilings. Most of Florida sits on coral. I suspect most of those building have a shelf life. The liability may make the value negative. New ones I hope will have a better solution.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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