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The Swamp

  • #126,201
  • Jan 10, 2026 9:58am Jan 10, 2026 9:58am
Quoting gatorinla
If I'm correct about is being bearish PA should not stray to far above 1639/45. An "oh shit" stop above 1666. May suffice. Not in stone yet. But A day close below that blue box, and the 12h after. Greatly improves the odds 1617 will have pressure to break.
The day closed below. Lets make there is no gap open above. Followed by a 12h close below in early London. That will ensure the R is valid. The R I noted is 1645/39. I want the 12h close below 1639. Better forbears would be the 12h -1628. Best best 12h -1617. There may still be pa breaching 1645/39. More so with the 12h trend break at 1617 still a valid support. That makes the possibility of a North b/o when sustained above 1653.9. But the 6h may have R at 1665. So any wick above 1639 may not last long. Pa may be unable to sustain a run too far above 1639 for very long. I will guess its less likely to go much beyond 20ish pips above. This is assuming the 12h will eventually break 1617.. If it can not break it with a 12h close. Pa with pressure the 1639-45/53 or even 65. If PA can sustain above any of these the bear is wounded some. That don't make pa automatically bullish. I think pa is bearish since its below 1743 anyway. Now it has a week close below 1743. I think the bull lost their footing when unable to close the quarter +1749.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,202
  • Jan 10, 2026 12:55pm Jan 10, 2026 12:55pm
Monday the 6h close at 9pm est below 1629. Could be a positive sign for a drop. The close side may matter. It may resist if sustained below it. It may also support more of an area where the close side matters.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,203
  • Jan 11, 2026 6:19am Jan 11, 2026 6:19am
For a fall, I think it needs to remain sustained below 1639, Take a 12h close below 1617, and probably a London 12h and day below 1606. There may be a long in the lower blue area. That may create a later chance to short the upper blue again.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,204
  • Jan 11, 2026 6:36am Jan 11, 2026 6:36am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,205
  • Edited 9:45am Jan 11, 2026 9:34am | Edited 9:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} . Wait until the red states like mine get a hurricane. FEMA is nowhere to be found in North Carolina from the last storm . Fema denied NC cleanup reimbursement. So people in Florida who can't afford insurance already will flee. We got a total cluster fuck coming if we see a big storm.. The red state politicians are voting against their own constituents. If you take a state like Kentucky where 60% are on medicaid.. There will be some pissed off constituents coming. They cant get FEMA help either.. The weather just gets worse each year....
Who would of thunk?
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It only gets worse now at a greater speed.. 2X Health insurance premiums are hitting now. It will fall faster now. No health insurance will close hospitals.
Florida was just lucky to dodge hurricanes mostly in 2025. There is always another one coming. Next time with no day workers. Insurance will just rise even more.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,206
  • Jan 11, 2026 9:47am Jan 11, 2026 9:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Who would of thunk? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1yuyF3KYec It only gets worse now at a greater speed.. 2X Health insurance premiums are hitting now. It will fall faster now. No health insurance will close hospitals. Florida was just lucky to dodge hurricanes mostly in 2025. There is always another one coming. Next time with no day workers. Insurance will just rise even more. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lhi9MD4M8sQ
Some people are lucky to get .50 on each dollar. It bleeds over because banks equity are losing too.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,207
  • Jan 11, 2026 9:51am Jan 11, 2026 9:51am
Oh and property taxes are on steroids during Ron's term.
I hate to say "I told you so" but I did. What does anyone think 50$ or less oil will do Texas? We should know in the next several months.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,208
  • Jan 11, 2026 6:17pm Jan 11, 2026 6:17pm
Here is the test.
Lets see if rejected.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,209
  • Jan 11, 2026 6:34pm Jan 11, 2026 6:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
Here is the test. Lets see if rejected. {image}
yea i thought we will retest 1617 or a bit lower first before the bounce. It came a bit earlier than i thought because of the news….
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,210
  • Jan 11, 2026 7:04pm Jan 11, 2026 7:04pm
Seems like it going to 1666. As long as we are below 1750 i m comfortable with sell.

though 1666 should hold for now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,211
  • Jan 11, 2026 8:46pm Jan 11, 2026 8:46pm
PA is above the upper blue box on the bull side of 1639. But also its run out of adr.

If is sustains back below 1639 Its likely bearish and more so below sustained below 1628 and 1617.. Adr is spent there too..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,212
  • Jan 11, 2026 8:48pm Jan 11, 2026 8:48pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea i thought we will retest 1617 or a bit lower first before the bounce. It came a bit earlier than i thought because of the news….
What news..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,213
  • Jan 11, 2026 8:53pm Jan 11, 2026 8:53pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea i thought we will retest 1617 or a bit lower first before the bounce. It came a bit earlier than i thought because of the news….
I may had longed the lower blue box. It never got there.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,214
  • Jan 11, 2026 9:34pm Jan 11, 2026 9:34pm
third world country.. The pedophile is destroying the usd..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,215
  • Jan 11, 2026 9:39pm Jan 11, 2026 9:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} What news..
Powell under investigation
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,216
  • Jan 11, 2026 9:40pm Jan 11, 2026 9:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I may had longed the lower blue box. It never got there.
yea i was thinking of looking for longs if we get there but of course we bounced before reaching to that level
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,217
  • Jan 11, 2026 9:49pm Jan 11, 2026 9:49pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} Powell under investigation
More bullshit from the idiot who bankrupt USFL and 3 casinos.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,218
  • Edited 10:04pm Jan 11, 2026 9:54pm | Edited 10:04pm
updated. Its not looking like this current h will close below 1641x. Most often the 12h will follow... In this case the 12h may close below 1641 and 39. But this rule most often will follow this closing hour.
back under 1653x hurts bulls a little. Back under 1639 further hurts bulls. The current 6h makes bulls look strong. But into adr.
Going by the year close, bears should come back and take 1639... and 1617.
Going by the year close. I think the larger trend should be bearish. Threatening the head of the Fed with criminal chargers was no part of my earlier evaluation. If anyone can fuck up the usd. We got a professional doing all he can to destroy all the post WW2 gains.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,219
  • Jan 11, 2026 10:25pm Jan 11, 2026 10:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
updated. Its not looking like this current h will close below 1641x. Most often the 12h will follow... In this case the 12h may close below 1641 and 39. But this rule most often will follow this closing hour. back under 1653x hurts bulls a little. Back under 1639 further hurts bulls. The current 6h makes bulls look strong. But into adr. Going by the year close, bears should come back and take 1639... and 1617. Going by the year close. I think the larger trend should be bearish. Threatening the head of the Fed with criminal chargers was no part of...
he will do everything he can to weaken the dollars as part of his economic plan…. With this outlook in mind, i am still finding it hard to be bullish for usd in a long term. But i do like to see some usd strength in the first half of the year. Maybe Q1.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,220
  • Jan 11, 2026 11:20pm Jan 11, 2026 11:20pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} he will do everything he can to weaken the dollars as part of his economic plan…. With this outlook in mind, i am still finding it hard to be bullish for usd in a long term. But i do like to see some usd strength in the first half of the year. Maybe Q1.
A weak usd is just more inflation for the people. Making it harder to cut rates. Making it harder to buy a home or anything else. He is starting a depression.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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