Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

The Triumph of the UniParty: Debt, Decay, and Imminent Fiscal Breakdown

 

1. https://s.yimg.com/lb/brands/120x120...ationalman.png
   Doug Casey's International Man www.internationalman.com
   From:[email protected]
   To:[email protected]
   
   Friday, December 5, 2025, at 7:18 A.M.
   
   https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...2ya42eW6dg--~D
   https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...L4Q.nP9bNQ--~D
   The Triumph of the UniParty: Debt, Decay, and Imminent Fiscal Breakdown
   by David Stockman
2. 
   
   https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...kHuJvFMnnw--~DToday’s number is 41X, representing the change in the public debt since early 1981, when Ronald Reagan’s first fiscal challenge, ironically, was the unavoidable need to raise the ceiling on the public debt. That is, right out of the starting blocks, he had been compelled to embrace the very bloated ogre he had campaigned against for more than two decades.
   
3. As it had happened, the Gipper inherited $930 billion of public debt as of December 1980, which in part represented the substantial additions during the Johnson, Nixon, Ford, and Carter years to which he had properly objected, and strenuously so. Still, the excesses of those years had not altered the post-war fiscal path, which was one of a continuously shrinking public debt burden on the national income (GDP).
   
4. In fact, when the GOP-Dixiecrat coalition put an end to the New Deal in 1938, the public debt stood at 52% of GDP – before the exigencies of WWII sent the ratio soaring to a peak of 120% of GDP in 1946.
   
5. Yet financing this enormous war debt had not been a complete financial disaster because wartime rationing and economic regimentation had caused the private savings rate to soar, thereby enabling much of Washington’s wartime borrowings to be financed by the public’s real money savings, not the fiat credits flowing from the printing presses at the Federal Reserve.
   
6. Thereafter, of course, the 12-million-man US military was totally demobilized, causing defence spending to plummet and Uncle Sam’s red ink to turn into nearly balanced budgets and actually intermittent surpluses. Accordingly, a growing economy returned to civilian control, coupled with the near absence of material budget deficits, triggered a 34-year march of the public debt ratio steadily downhill.
   
7. Indeed, after eight years of fiscal rectitude under President Eisenhower, the public debt ratio had already returned to the 1938 level at 52% of GDP. Moreover, even the subsequent excesses of the Great Society, Nixon’s "we are all Keynesians now" fiscal policies, and Jimmy Carter’s attempted purchase of his 1980 re-election with goodies for the teachers unions, the energy industries, farmers, and other Dem constituencies, did not stop the march back toward national solvency. By 1980, the debt ratio was just 31.8% of GDP.
   
   https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...zTSjn7fdXg--~D
   
8. But that’s all she wrote.
   As we will amplify below, during the Reagan era, four crucial developments caused the nation’s return to its historic fiscal prudence to be abruptly abandoned. Taken together, they have transmuted the once and former paragon of fiscal prudence on the banks of the Potomac—exemplified by 48 surplus budgets during the 65 years between 1866 and 1930—into an infernal debt and inflation machine in the years since 1980.
   
9. These history-bending developments include:
   1. The takeover of Washington by a bipartisan neocon coalition that has spent massively and needlessly on a bloated Warfare State and Empire abroad.
   2. The GOP’s stinging defeat on Social Security reform in May 1981 which led to its going AWOL on its appointed role as nemesis of the Welfare State.
   3. The embrace by mainstream GOP politicians of the doctrine that tax cuts are a magic economic elixir that can generate a "growth" solution to chronic deficits.
   4. The takeover of the nation’s central bank by Alan Greenspan and his heir and assigns, who installed Keynesian monetary central planning at the Fed. The consequent massive monetization of the public debt further euthanized the nation’s elected politicians with respect to the folly of chronic and massive Federal deficits.

   
   

10. The chart below summarizes the results, and firmly reminds that the $38 trillion public debt level crossed recently is not just a case of big numbers vertigo. In fact, in Q4 1980, the GDP was about $3 trillion, meaning that today’s $30 trillion GDP represents only a 10X gain in the nation’s economic capacity to carry the public debt.
    
11. Needless to say, that’s why the 41X number for the public debt gain during the same 45-year period is so salient. Self-evidently, you cannot grow the numerator of the debt-to-income ratio four times faster than the denominator for decades on end and expect an eventual outcome that is anything short of catastrophic.
    
12. Yet that’s the sum and substance of America’s fiscal path since 1980. In the graph below, both variables are indexed to the levels of Q4 1980—so the ever-widening gap between the public debt (red line) and the US economy’s capacity (blue line) to carry it is unmistakable.
    
13. The thing is, however, the GOP of 1980 would have never dreamed of embracing the graph below. Yet the recently passed and endlessly ballyhooed OBBBA, which might better be called the MOABB ("mother of all budget busters"), will actually accelerate the current built-in trend.
    
    https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...cXuZ829gRQ--~D
    
14. For want of doubt, here is the debt ratio trend since 1980. It embodies a fiscal path that is the absolute inverse of the 1946 to 1980 trend shown above. In fact, during the 45 years since 1980, the debt ratio has tracked all the way back to its WWII peak. Alas, the US economy was drowning in private savings to absorb the debt back then, while today the private savings rate has shrunk to nearly the vanishing point.
    
15. Needless to say, this condition puts enormous pressure on the Fed to find an excuse to revert once again to massive debt monetization. Yet with inflation rates trending at +3% and heading higher, the Fed’s printing press has been forced into idleness and may stay there for some time to come.
    
16. And that’s notwithstanding the phony "interest rate cuts" being administered from the Eccles Building, which are the result of paying massive levels of interest payments to banks and money market funds to keep their liquid reserves parked at the Fed at the central bank’s pegged interest rate target.
    
17. To be sure, if the retaking of the WWII peak debt ratio shown below for 2025 were the end of the story, the future outlook would be bad enough—with either a massive, economy-killing interest rate crunch, if the rising Federal debts were financed the honest way in the bond pits, or another even worse inflationary blow-off, if the Fed’s printing presses are again put into over-drive.
    But that’s not the half of it.
    
    The Truth About the Coming Monetary "Reset"
    https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...ZP_xaC2haw--~D
    
    The truth is stark: the monetary system is self-destructing, and the people who run it know exactly how to turn that breakdown into control.
    
18. Their endgame is a digital system that monitors and manages every transaction—and anyone who isn’t prepared risks losing not only purchasing power but real freedom.
    
19. This report pulls back the curtain: what’s happening, why it matters to you, and three practical moves you can make today to protect your savings and position for opportunity.
    
20. Click here to see it now.
    -
    The built-in baseline deficits, which would have continued to track the rising path shown below, and would have actually broken into new territory relative to GDP, even had the MOABB been snuffed out on Capitol Hill, as it should have been. Instead, of course, trillions of new debts were layered on top of the inherited baseline, such that the debt ratio will soar to 166% of GDP by 2054.
    
21. In round terms, therefore, the built-in public debt barely 30 years down the road will reach $185 trillion!
    And that’s not a case of big numbers vertigo, either. The CBO projection of GDP for 2054 now stands at $85 trillion, meaning that the gap between the public debt burden and the national income will continue to widen, and actually accelerate, along the path shown above. That is to say, by mid-century, the GDP will be 28X larger than it was in 1980, but the public debt will be up by 185X.
    
    https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...gzkaV6Lk5g--~D
    
22. Needless to say, the financial market will buckle and cause the US economy to collapse long before we reach the currently built-in public debt level of $185 trillion by 2054. If for no other reason, there is precious little savings available to honestly finance the UniParty debts, and, as will be evident in the years ahead, the Fed is essentially out of dry powder when it comes to massive monetization. The bond vigilantes have come out of their decades-long slumber.
    
23. So how do you finance the built-in 6% to 10% of GDP deficits year after year when net national savings have already vanished?
    
24. You can’t. American politics are locked on a path toward fiscal calamity because we now have two pro-government parties. That includes the Warfare State spenders of both parties, and the Welfare State demagogues and cowards, respectively, of what passes for contemporary Democrat and Republican parties.
    
    Editor’s Note: The fiscal trajectory laid out above is not an abstraction, nor is it a matter confined to charts and historical references. It is already reshaping the economic ground beneath every saver, investor, and retiree in the country.
    
25. The political class may pretend there is still time to maneuver, but the forces set in motion are now accelerating far faster than Washington can contain them. What comes next will not be a gentle correction—it will be a systemic break, one that arrives with a speed and severity that catches most Americans completely unprepared.
    
26. That is precisely why, as this storm gathers, we believe it is essential to arm yourself with the same depth of understanding and strategic foresight that insiders and seasoned crisis investors rely on. If you want to know how to protect your savings and position yourself on the right side of the upheaval already underway, you’ll want to see what comes next.
    WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

Good Morning Forex Traders

Here is my first post on this thread, started on December 3, 2016, 9 years ago.

Good day, fellow traders on Forex Factory. I have been trading Forex for over 10 years now, and with the incredible movements that occur every month, which are caused by the intervention efforts of the world's central banks, trading today is significantly different from trading before 2008. Thus, RISK MANAGEMENT must be a priority for any serious forex currency trader. You should never RISK more than 5% of your trading capital on any one trade plan. I also strongly suggest that you never trade more than 20% of your total trading capital at any time. Example - If you are trading $50,000 in US Funds, NEVER have more than 20% or $10,000 US Dollars on your various trade plans, always using the 5% rule for risk on each trade plan being used.

The Money Flow Trading Method is based on determining each trading day whether the markets are in a Risk On or Risk Off phase, which indicates whether the markets are heading down or heading up. I use the DOW to determine this each day.

When the markets head down, and we have Risk Off, the money flows into US Dollars first, and then the money is parked usually into US Bonds, so the bonds go up and the yield goes down. Money also flows to USD/JPY. I will give more explanations when the forex markets reopen on Sunday. If you have any comments or questions, please post them in this thread. Tomorrow we have two important events, the most important being the referendum in Italy.

The results will move the markets, whichever result we see. This is a Fundamental Fact, and that, combined with Technical Indicators as to Support and Resistance, along with investor perception of the meaning of the results short term, will lead the direction of the market. I will be thinking of going short on USD/JPY depending on the results of the course and the Risk being off.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

 

1. Dec 4, 2016 11:00 am

1. | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,091 Posts | Online Now

Good Morning, Fellow Traders, which includes men and women. This morning, I will talk about GOLD, which is also a currency and the safest store of value in the world and has been for 5000 years. It is no person's debt, and it is a store of value. However, in many ways, SILVER is the better store of value since there is a shortage of silver in the world and as an investment using the ratio during 1980 when Gold was over $800 US and Silver was at $50 US for a ratio of 16 to 1.

When money flows into US Bonds and US Dollars and other currencies, it also flows into hard assets such as copper and zinc; however, Gold and Silver are also currencies. If anyone would like to discuss this further, please register with Forex Factory so we can communicate if you are not a member at the present time. Have a great Sunday, and by 5 PM EST, we should have the exit poll results on the Italian Referendum.

Edit to add a good resource site concerning Gold. https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/


WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

Amongst the trading tribe, do things that can identify and prove that you are different from the crowd - A real, serious and professional trader.

Don't just proclaim that you are a trader.

Trader does not mean that the sole objective is to make money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd which is unsuccessful

Do things which can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.


Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.

No indicator can do this, just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment, as one MAJOR fundamental fact, whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid-19 variant, can cause the markets to go down 1000 points, as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed during 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS PERIOD.

Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital, and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars. Initially, learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account, just as I did for a period of three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.


SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you, and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course, we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods, and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.


20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched, as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do, and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.

Thursday, September 25, 2014
A Preview of Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes
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One of the great disappointments I encounter when I read writings on the topic of trading psychology is that they invariably touch upon the same themes: discipline, controlling emotions, etc. Having worked with traders and portfolio managers for over a decade now, there is so much more to the psychology of trading than "sticking to your process" that I decided I had to write a book about what I was experiencing but wasn't reading. The title reflects that interest: Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.

I think Ted Hayes hit on something important in his recent interview. He pointed out that the personality traits relevant to success among early career traders are different from those that generate success for experienced ones. Perhaps so much writing concerns discipline and emotional control, because those are the dominant concerns of the new traders who buy the books, haunt the websites, and seek help.

At several of the firms where I work, no one even gets an interview unless they have years of experience managing significant capital with a solid track record of profitability and risk management. So by the time those traders join the firm, discipline and emotional control are not screaming priorities. Instead, they deal with other challenges. In Trading Psychology 2.0, I refer to these challenges by A-B-C:


* Adapting to changing markets
* Building on strengths
* Creating creativity

In adapting to different markets by leveraging their strengths and generating new ideas, successful market participants are not so different from successful businesses in fast-changing industries, such as technology or social media. When markets change from year to year, stasis is a formula for failure. The successful trader, like the successful tech firm, must constantly innovate. Moreover, once traders generate those innovations, they must turn best practices--what they do that is successful--and turn them into robust best practices.

I think this is very, very important: What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines. Conscientiousness makes for success, but it is openness that makes for adaptation. Trading psychology as a field has done a fine job of articulating the importance of discipline. I hope that the new book will broaden the discussion to include a research-informed look at mastering change and innovation.

To be able to help you better, you must share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS.


For further information, please send me an email to [email protected] OR PLEASE CALL me on my corporation Bell Canada Landline in Quebec, Canada, which is 819 275 7780

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

https://mises.org/power-market/canad...cline-40-years

Power & Market
Canada’s “Worst Decline in 40 Years”


https://cdn.mises.org/styles/respons...?itok=3ETHFJPP
ES Lee esto en Español
Tags: Big Government, Global Economy

07/26/2024•Power & Market•Peter St. Onge

Canada’s standard of living is on track for its worst decline in 40 years, according to a new study by Canada’s Fraser Institute.

The study compared the three worst periods of decline in Canada in the last 40 years — the 1989 recession, the 2008 global financial crisis, and this post-pandemic era.

They found that, unlike the previous recessions, Canada is not recovering this time. Something broke.
In fact, according to the Financial Post, since 2019, Canada’s had the worst growth out of 50 developed economies. Inflation-adjusted Canadian wages have been flat since 2016.


https://cdn.mises.org/inline-images/..._2320x1196.jpg


So, yes, something broke.
And it’s nowhere near over: Canada’s per-person real GDP is still falling, and with a looming US recession — the US is 75% of Canada’s exports — Canada could crash again before it ever recovered.

Trudeau’s Canada in Decline
In previous videos,, I’ve discussed the disaster that is Justin Trudeau’s Canada. In short, incomes are West Virginia level, house prices are Los Angeles level, and Canadian taxes are halfway to the Soviet Union.

It’s not rare for a middle-class family in Canada to pay half their income in taxes.
Meanwhile, Canada’s official food inflation is up 25% since the pandemic, and energy is up 30% -- partly thanks to a carbon tax.
And keep in mind, sales tax in most Canadian provinces is 13 to 15 percent on everything you buy.


https://cdn.mises.org/inline-images/...b_1174x656.jpg


While Canadians post TikToks about trying to stretch a loaf of rye bread through the week or selling off their possessions to afford groceries, the cost of living is hitting harder with time.

Canadian bankruptcy filings jumped 40% last year, while CIBC reports nearly half of Canadians have zero emergency savings.

According to StatsCan, Canada’s violent crime rate is up 40% since 2014.
An Ipsos poll found 7 in 10 Canadians agree that “Canada is broken,” rising to 8 in 10 of those between age 18 and 34.

Angus found that 42% of Canadians are considering moving to another country.


https://cdn.mises.org/inline-images/...6_1288x802.jpg


What Changed

This is all a shock because it happened so fast —it’s night and day from the last crisis in 2008, which Canada weathered much better than America.
What changed? Justin Trudeau. Specifically, his campaign is to convert Canada from a mixed economy like the US into a government-dominated economy like the sick men of the European Union.


https://cdn.mises.org/inline-images/..._2348x1266.jpg


Under Trudeau, business investment has plunged by a third, while government spending nearly doubled to almost half of GDP.
Government workers in Canada are growing almost four times faster than the private sector, and one in three Canadians now work for the government, raking in 30% more in salary and benefits than the taxpayers they lord over. Another 1.7 million Canadians — roughly 1 in 10 households — are on welfare.

Of course, that makes it very difficult to win an election in Canada on a small-government platform: You’re up against the government-provided livelihoods of 40% of voters. Meaning you’ve got to win, what, 80% of everybody else.

What’s Next
Near-term things will get worse because Canadians are stuck with Trudeau through the next election in 2025.
Conservative Pierre Poilievre is ahead in the polls for now, but Canada’s government-funded media is doing everything they can to destroy him, so the lead’s already narrowing.

That means more inflation, more decline, more mass migration, and rising crime in what was once a paradise.
Image Source: Getty

Note: The views expressed on Mises.org are not necessarily those of the Mises Institute.

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https://mishtalk.com/economics/fed-c...hree-dissents/

Fed Cuts Key Interest Rate by a Quarter-Point With Three Dissents
December 10, 2025

1:33 pm

Fed Cuts Key Interest Rate by a Quarter-Point With Three Dissents

Economics

The Fed statement hints it may be done with cuts for now. Let’s discuss the real reason.


https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1


Please consider the FOMC Statement from the Fed’s December 9-10 Meeting.
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.

In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Three Dissents
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller.

Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan D. Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

Stalled Progress on Inflation
The Wall Street Journal comments Fed Cuts Rates Again, Signals It May Be Done for Now

The Fed voted 9-3 for the reduction on Wednesday, the first time in six years that three officials cast dissents. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid thought the reduction wasn’t warranted, while Fed governor Stephen Miran favored a larger, half-point cut.

Public comments from Fed officials in recent weeks revealed a committee so fractured that the decision likely came down to how Fed Chair Jerome Powell wanted to proceed.

Powell’s term as chair expires in May, meaning he will preside over just three more rate-setting meetings. President Trump has said he is close to naming a successor—raising questions about whether whoever follows will be able to command the same deference.

Inflation-wary hawks see a central bank cutting into an economy that is stronger than it looks and worry that interest rates may no longer be high enough to put downward pressure on inflation. That’s a bigger worry with each passing year, since inflation has been running above the Fed’s target since 2021.

By contrast, employment-focused doves see little evidence that lower rates are reviving sluggish housing and labor markets. They worry the risks are asymmetric: If unemployment accelerates, fixing it will require far more aggressive action than if inflation lingers near 3%.

The combination of firm price pressures alongside a cooling labor market presents an unsavory trade-off for the Fed, one it hasn’t faced in decades. When officials confronted a similar dilemma, during the so-called stagflation of the 1970s, the central bank’s stop-and-go response allowed high inflation to become entrenched.
Nathan Sheets, global chief economist at Citi, said he is watching January price data to see if businesses that have held back tariff-related cost increases reset prices higher at the start of the year. “If we are going to see more tariff pass-through, the natural time for it to come is during those annual pricing increases,” he said.

Sheets is among those who worry the Fed has little margin for error on inflation. The Fed targets an inflation rate of 2%, but a key measure of inflation stood at 2.8% in September.

“I don’t think inflation is going to break out on the upside, but by the same token, you’re not at 2% and there’s no compelling narrative that you’re going to get back to 2% anytime soon,” he said. “And that definitely gives me pause.”

FOMC Press Conference

The press conference is live at 2:30 Eastern.
The press conference rates to be interesting.

The Fed Will Soon Have Its Hands Full
One reason to cut now is the Fed may have a hard time next year.
That’s a bad excuse but I believe it’s how the Fed thinks.

Spotlight Health Care
The Fed’s preferred measure inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
The PCE puts a much higher weight on health care than the CPI. And health care costs are soaring.

I discussed Obamacare in my post How Much Will 4.5 Million Florida Residents Pay for Obamacare in 2026?
Florida has over ~4.7 million residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 97% of whom are currently subsidized.

A 64-yr old couple earning $90,000/yr would go from paying $637/mo to a jaw-dropping $3,176/mo…or FIVE TIMES AS MUCH FOR THE SAME POLICY. That’d be $38,000/YR IN PREMIUMS ALONE, or 42% OF THEIR GROSS INCOME.

The KFF foundation estimates an average 114 percent increase, so I don’t doubt the numbers presented, or the rationale that Florida will be worse than average.
More importantly, to the PCE, Medicare and corporate healthcare costs are soaring.

The average rate increased for both are about 9.25 percent.

Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible
On December 8, I commented Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible

Let’s discuss 2026 health care premiums and what they mean to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
I expect a rise in the Health Care weight in the PCE. I also expect a net 1.5 percentage point increase in PCE inflation in 2026 due to health care.

These estimates stem from health care price hikes across the board (Medicare and corporate plans), not counting the huge ACA impacts.

The Fed’s PCE inflation target is 2.0 percent. If I am in the ballpark, health care alone rates to take up 1.5 percentage points of that target, again, not counting Obamacare!

Unless jobs collapse, and they easily can, the Fed is going to struggle to justify rate cuts. And if they do cut, the most likely reason will be jobs. It’s not a good place for the Fed.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology...more-orwellian

11 Signs That Our World Is Rapidly Becoming A Lot More Orwellian


https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden


Wednesday, December 10, 2025 - 04:20 PM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

All over the globe, the digital control grid that we are all living in just continues to get even tighter. They are using facial recognition technology to scan our faces, they are using license plate readers to track where we travel, they are systematically monitoring the conversations that we are having on our phones, and they are watching literally everything that we post on social media. At this stage, many of us just assume that nothing that we do or say is ever truly private. We really do live in a “Big Brother society”, and the potential for tyranny is off the charts. In fact, people are already getting arrested for “thought crimes” all over the world. If we do not take a stand now, someday soon we could wake up in a world where there is essentially no freedom left at all.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=7EGkJcWk


The exponential growth of AI technology is allowing authorities to watch, track, monitor and control us like never before. If you are not alarmed by this, you might want to check if you are still alive. The following are 11 signs that our world is rapidly becoming a lot more Orwellian…

#1 UK authorities are rolling out “a country-wide facial recognition system” that will use AI facial recognition cameras to watch the entire population…
On Thursday, officials in the UK pledged to roll out a country-wide facial recognition system to help police track down criminals. The country’s ministers have launched a 10-week consultation to analyze the regulatory and privacy framework of their AI-powered surveillance panopticon — but one way or another, the all-seeing eye is on its way.

There’s just one tiny wrinkle: the AI facial recognition cameras tend to misidentify non-white people.
New reporting by The Guardian notes that testing of the AI tech conducted by the National Physical Laboratory (NPL) found that it‘s “more likely to incorrectly include some demographic groups in its search results” — specifically Black and Asian people.

#2 Of course, the control freaks in the UK also monitor everything that gets posted on social media. One British man recently found this out the hard way when he was arrested for posing with a legally-owned gun in the United States…
A Yorkshire man was arrested over a photo he posted on social media featuring him holding a legally owned gun in the US.
Jon Richelieu-Booth posted a photo of himself in August holding a gun on LinkedIn while he was on a holiday in Florida.

He said he held the firearm lawfully, on private land and with full permission from its owner.

#3 If you do not believe that “thought crime” is real, just consider this next example. 11 police officers recently barged in and arrested a 34-year-old woman who was sitting naked in her own bathtub because she used offensive words while texting another woman on her phone…

The United Kingdom has become an authoritarian nightmare, and the United States must remain vigilant if it does not want to go down the same course.
Elizabeth Kinney, a 34-year-old care assistant, was naked in the bathtub when 11 police officers barged into her home to arrest her.

Her crime was sending insults to another woman via text.

How would you feel if 11 police officers were staring at you while you were naked?
As she was being informed that she had engaged in “malicious communications”, tears started flowing from Kinney’s eyes…

Kinney burst into tears as male officers denied her any privacy, and a female officer informed her that she was being arrested for “malicious communications and hate crime.” “The Crown place this offence in the highest category of its type due to the effect related to sexual orientation and the greater harm because it had moderate impact,” prosecutors insisted. Kinney faced ten years in prison, but her attorney begged for leniency. She has been ordered to perform seventy-two hours of community service, attend ten days of rehabilitation, and pay a fine of several hundred pounds.

#4 French President Emmanuel Macron wants the power to determine which media outlets will be allowed to speak to the public and which media outlets will be silenced…

Macron has, in the last weeks intensified warnings on the risks of disinformation, on Friday calling for changes to French legislation that would allow “false information” online to be urgently blocked.

He has also called for “professional certification” of outlets to distinguish sites and networks that provide reliable information according to ethical rules from others that do not.

But at the weekend, the Journal du Dimanche Sunday newspaper, part of the influential media stable of right-wing tycoon Vincent Bollore, accused Macron in a front-page story of a “totalitarian drift” on the issue.

#5 Because he is a champion of free speech, the EU has been coming after Elon Musk for years. So it shouldn’t surprise any of us that the European Commission just fined his company 140 million dollars for supposed violations of the Digital Services Act…

The European Commission has issued a $140 million fine to Elon Musk’s X for violating the EU’s controversial Digital Services Act (DSA). The fine is likely to escalate tensions between the EU and America over free speech online.

Bloomberg reports that the European Commission has imposed a €120 million ($140 million) fine on X, Elon Musk’s social media platform, for breaching the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA). This marks the first penalty issued under the new censorship law, which aims to regulate online platforms and “protect” users from illegal content and disinformation.

#6 In recent years, we have seen so many controversial voices suddenly have their bank accounts shut down. Shockingly, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is now publicly admitting that his company does “debank” people…

As JPMorgan Chase Bank is under investigation by the state of Florida for alleged coordination with the Biden Department of Justice and Operation Arctic Frost, the chairman of the company is admitting to debanking certain customers, but says it has nothing to do with their political or religious affiliations.

“We do debank them,” said JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who appeared on “Sunday Morning Futures” with Maria Bartiromo on the Fox News Channel.
“People have to grow up here and stop making up things and stuff like that. I can’t talk about an individual account.

#7 India wants to require that phone location services are always on so that the government can track people through their phones wherever they go…
You know what they say: If at first you don’t succeed at mass government surveillance, try, try again. Only two days after India backpedalled on its plan to force smartphone makers to preinstall a state-run “cybersecurity” app, Reuters reports that the country is back at it. It’s said to be considering a telecom industry proposal with another draconian requirement. This one would require smartphone makers to enable always-on satellite-based location tracking (Assisted GPS).

The measure would require location services to remain on at all times, with no option to switch them off. The telecom industry also wants phone makers to disable notifications that alert users when their carriers have accessed their location. According to Reuters, India’s home ministry was set to meet with smartphone industry executives on Friday, but the meeting was postponed.

#8 A journalist in the Netherlands has tested AI-powered glasses “that can instantly identify strangers on the street”…
A Dutch journalist just tested a pair of AI-powered glasses that can instantly identify strangers on the street.
No government database. No police system. Just public data and off-the-shelf AI.

You look at someone, and in seconds, their name, LinkedIn, and background appear before your eyes.
The scariest part? You can’t really stop it.

You can ban it, regulate it, add blinking red lights… but once tech like this exists, someone will always find a way to use it.
Once these sorts of devices become widely available, there will be nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.

#9 A nationwide digital ID is being introduced in the UK, and soon you will not be able to get a new job without one…
Once introduced, digital ID will be used to verify a person’s right to live and work in the UK.

It will take the form of an app-based system, stored on smartphones in a similar way to the NHS App or digital bank cards.
The ID will include information on the holders’ residency status, name, date of birth, nationality and their photo.

When he first announced the scheme, Sir Keir said: “You will not be able to work in the United Kingdom if you do not have a digital ID. It’s as simple as that.”

#10 The digital ID program in France “is moving from pilot to scale”…
France’s national digital identity app, France Identité, has enabled the creation of more than 3.2 million digital IDs, according to new figures.
Among these, approximately 525,000 identities have been fully certified, meaning that users have completed an in-person verification process at their local town halls. This means that more than half a million French digital IDs are ready for the EU Digital Identity (EUDI) Wallet, according to Joerg Lenz, head of marketing at Namirial Group.

“France Identité is moving from pilot to scale,” Lenz wrote on LinkedIn, following the TRUSTECH Event held in Paris on Wednesday.

#11 In Illinois, there is such overwhelming demand for digital IDs that some people are being forced to wait…
Mobile IDs became available in Illinois on Wednesday, but due to the high demand, some residents are finding themselves waiting a little bit longer.

Many residents trying to download the digital ID to their Apple wallet received the following message: “Due to the high volume, your state’s service is currently busy.”

Users can then answer the question, “Do you want to be notified when it becomes available?”

This is where the entire world is heading.

As the Big Brother control grid gets tighter and tighter, the stage is being set for unprecedented tyranny on a global scale.

Tyrants of the past could only dream of having the sort of AI-powered tools that we possess today.

If you do not submit to the digital gulag that is being constructed all around us, eventually you may not be able to buy, sell, get a job or open a bank account without proper digital identification.

What would you do then?

You might want to start thinking about that, because things are only going to get crazier from here.

Michael’s new book, entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next,” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

Good Morning Forex Traders

Here is my first post on this thread, started on December 3, 2016, 9 years ago.

Good day, fellow traders on Forex Factory. I have been trading Forex for over 10 years now, and with the incredible movements that occur every month, which are caused by the intervention efforts of the world's central banks, trading today is significantly different from trading before 2008. Thus, RISK MANAGEMENT must be a priority for any serious forex currency trader. You should never RISK more than 5% of your trading capital on any one trade plan. I also strongly suggest that you never trade more than 20% of your total trading capital at any time. Example - If you are trading $50,000 in US Funds, NEVER have more than 20% or $10,000 US Dollars on your various trade plans, always using the 5% rule for risk on each trade plan being used.

The Money Flow Trading Method is based on determining each trading day whether the markets are in a Risk On or Risk Off phase, which indicates whether the markets are heading down or heading up. I use the DOW to determine this each day.

When the markets head down, and we have Risk Off, the money flows into US Dollars first, and then the money is parked usually into US Bonds, so the bonds go up and the yield goes down. Money also flows to USD/JPY. I will give more explanations when the forex markets reopen on Sunday. If you have any comments or questions, please post them in this thread. Tomorrow we have two important events, the most important being the referendum in Italy.

The results will move the markets, whichever result we see. This is a Fundamental Fact, and that, combined with Technical Indicators as to Support and Resistance, along with investor perception of the meaning of the results short term, will lead the direction of the market. I will be thinking of going short on USD/JPY depending on the results of the course and the Risk being off.

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1. Dec 4, 2016 11:00 am

 

1. | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,091 Posts | Online Now

Good Morning, Fellow Traders, which includes men and women. This morning, I will talk about GOLD, which is also a currency and the safest store of value in the world and has been for 5000 years. It is no person's debt, and it is a store of value. However, in many ways, SILVER is the better store of value since there is a shortage of silver in the world and as an investment using the ratio during 1980 when Gold was over $800 US and Silver was at $50 US for a ratio of 16 to 1.

When money flows into US Bonds and US Dollars and other currencies, it also flows into hard assets such as copper and zinc; however, Gold and Silver are also currencies. If anyone would like to discuss this further, please register with Forex Factory so we can communicate if you are not a member at the present time. Have a great Sunday, and by 5 PM EST, we should have the exit poll results on the Italian Referendum.

Edit to add a good resource site concerning Gold. https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/


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1. 15,563
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4. Dec 5, 2025 8:44am

1. https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial User | Joined Dec 2014 | 14,095 Posts | Online Now

Amongst the trading tribe, do things that can identify and prove that you are different from the crowd - A real, serious and professional trader.

Don't just proclaim that you are a trader.

Trader does not mean that the sole objective is to make money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd which is unsuccessful

Do things which can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.


Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.

No indicator can do this, just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment, as one MAJOR fundamental fact, whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid-19 variant, can cause the markets to go down 1000 points, as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed during 2003 when I started trading Forex, and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS PERIOD.

Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP, which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital, and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars. Initially, learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account, just as I did for a period of three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.


SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you, and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course, we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods, and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.


20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans, which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than the Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched, as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do, and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.

Thursday, September 25, 2014
A Preview of Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes
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One of the great disappointments I encounter when I read writings on the topic of trading psychology is that they invariably touch upon the same themes: discipline, controlling emotions, etc. Having worked with traders and portfolio managers for over a decade now, there is so much more to the psychology of trading than "sticking to your process" that I decided I had to write a book about what I was experiencing but wasn't reading. The title reflects that interest: Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.

I think Ted Hayes hit on something important in his recent interview. He pointed out that the personality traits relevant to success among early career traders are different from those that generate success for experienced ones. Perhaps so much writing concerns discipline and emotional control, because those are the dominant concerns of the new traders who buy the books, haunt the websites, and seek help.

At several of the firms where I work, no one even gets an interview unless they have years of experience managing significant capital with a solid track record of profitability and risk management. So by the time those traders join the firm, discipline and emotional control are not screaming priorities. Instead, they deal with other challenges. In Trading Psychology 2.0, I refer to these challenges by A-B-C:


* Adapting to changing markets
* Building on strengths
* Creating creativity

In adapting to different markets by leveraging their strengths and generating new ideas, successful market participants are not so different from successful businesses in fast-changing industries, such as technology or social media. When markets change from year to year, stasis is a formula for failure. The successful trader, like the successful tech firm, must constantly innovate. Moreover, once traders generate those innovations, they must turn best practices--what they do that is successful--and turn them into robust best practices.

I think this is very, very important: What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines. Conscientiousness makes for success, but it is openness that makes for adaptation. Trading psychology as a field has done a fine job of articulating the importance of discipline. I hope that the new book will broaden the discussion to include a research-informed look at mastering change and innovation.

To be able to help you better, you must share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS.


For further information, please send me an email to [email protected] OR PLEASE CALL me on my corporation Bell Canada Landline in Quebec, Canada, which is 819 275 7780

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

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What You Aren’t Being Told About The World You Live In

How The “Conspiracy Theory” Label Was Conceived To Derail The Truth Movement

How Covert American Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive and Destroy Reputations

December 12, 2025

Trump Pardons Most Dangerous Woman In America In New Civil War Shock
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A forewarning new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting that after President Donald Trump issued his scathing document “National Security Strategy of the United States of America” last week, yesterday it was stunningly revealed: “In a longer unpublished draft of the US National Security Strategy released by the administration of President Donald Trump last week, the United States is secretly planning to create a five-nation power bloc with Russia, China, India and Japan to sideline the Western-dominated G7”—a stunning revelation joined with the news: “The strategy proposes a “Core 5,” or C5, made up of the U.S., China, Russia, India and Japan—which are several of the countries with more than 100 million people...It would meet regularly, as the G7 does, for summits with specific themes”.

In viewing what President Trump is doing, this report notes, leftist New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman warningly assessed yesterday: “It is language unlike any previous U.S. national security survey, and to my mind it reveals a deep truth about this second Trump administration: how much it came to Washington to fight America’s third civil war, not to fight the West’s new cold war...Yes, in my view, we are in a new civil war over a place called home”—a warning assessment joined by President Trump’s lifelong friend and personal attorney Peter Ticktin proclaiming to the American peoples this week: “We are at war”.

In the first American civil war known as the Whiskey Rebellion, this report continues, President George Washington pardoned everyone—in the second American Civil War it saw President Andrew Johnson issuing a proclamation pardoning everyone—and in this third American civil war it saw President Trump issuing the proclamation “Granting Pardons for Certain Offenses Related to the 2020 Presidential Election” on 7 November, wherein he declared:

This proclamation brings to an end a grave national injustice perpetrated upon the American people following the 2020 Presidential Election and continues the process of national reconciliation.

Acting pursuant to the grant of authority in Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution of the United States, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, do hereby grant a full, complete, and unconditional pardon to all United States citizens for conduct relating to the advice, creation, organization, execution, submission, support, voting, activities, participation in, or advocacy for or of any slate or proposed slate of Presidential electors, whether or not recognized by any State or State official, in connection with the 2020 Presidential Election, as well for any conduct relating to their efforts to expose voting fraud and vulnerabilities in the 2020 Presidential Election.

Among those knowing what President Trump is preparing to do with his 7 November national reconciliation pardon proclamation, this report details, was Professor Kimberly Wehle at the University of Baltimore School of Law, who warned: “Trump is trying to expand his pardon power to cover state offenses”—a warning specifically applying to Tina Peters, who is known as “The Most Dangerous Woman in America to Democrats”—and President Trump announced last evening:
For years, Democrats ignored Violent and Vicious crimes of all shapes, sizes, colours, and types. Violent Criminals who should have been locked up were allowed to attack again.

Democrats were also far too happy to let in the worst from the worst countries so that they could rip off American Taxpayers.

Democrats only think there is one crime – Not voting for them!
Instead of protecting Americans and their Tax Dollars, Democrats chose instead to prosecute anyone they can find who wants Safe and Secure Elections.
Democrats have been relentless in their targeting of TINA PETERS, a Patriot who simply wanted to make sure that our Elections were Fair and Honest.

Tina is sitting in a Colorado prison for the “crime” of demanding Honest Elections.

Today, I am granting Tina a full Pardon for her attempts to expose Voter Fraud in the rigged 2020 Presidential Election!
Though the American peoples have been socialist brainwashed into believing President Trump can’t pardon anyone for State crimes, this report notes, even the leftist American Bar Association admits: “There is a strong consensus among legal experts that a president cannot pardon someone for a state offense”—a strong consensus, however, that doesn’t outweigh the United States Supreme Court, that in its landmark case “Ex parte Garland” ruled: “The power of pardon conferred by the Constitution upon the President is unlimited except in cases of impeachment...It extends to every offence known to the law, and may be exercised at any time after its commission, either before legal proceedings are taken or during their pendency, or after conviction and judgment...The power is not subject to legislative control”.

Earlier this week, this report concludes, President Trump’s lifelong friend and personal attorney Peter Ticktin, who also represents Tina Peters, explained to top President Trump advisor Steve Bannon the legal pathway he will take to insure her freedom when the pardon was issued—a legal pathway that will end up at the United States Supreme Court, and whose continuous rulings backing President Trump caused the leftist New York Times to publish its warning article “Looks Like The Supreme Court Will Continue To Overturn The 20th Century”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]


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December 12, 2025, EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition that it is linked to its source at WhatDoesItMean.com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

American Orthobros Ignite Global Political Earthquake

America Forgot That Wars Are Won By Schoolteachers Not Generals

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https://dailyreckoning.com/trading-s...-paper-silver/

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By Adam Sharp

December 12, 2025

‘Trading Sardines’ and Paper Silver

There is an old trading story about sardines, and it’s surprisingly relevant to silver today.

During the gold rush in the late 1800s, miners were striking it rich in remote parts of Alaska.
But supplies were scarce and expensive. Eventually, a large market for basic goods developed, and some suppliers spent more time trading food for profit rather than selling it for consumption.

Sardines were in high demand, and the price of a can supposedly soared 10x at one point. A micro-bubble developed. It got so bad that people were mostly trading the tinned fish rather than eating it.

One day, a hungry miner paid through the nose for one of these cans. He opened it and was surprised to find horribly rotten fish. He stormed over to the traders’ shop and demanded to know what was going on.

The trader told him, “You fool! Those are trading sardines, not eating sardines.”

Paper vs. Physical Silver
Today, there is a dynamic in silver markets somewhat similar to the old sardine story. Paper silver contracts like those traded on the COMEX exchange outnumber physical silver by perhaps 200x.

In other words, there are a lot more silver IOUs floating around than real bullion. With the price of silver rising, more traders are now “standing for delivery”, refusing to accept cash settlement and demanding the actual metal.

In the tinned fish analogy, trading sardines would be paper silver, and eating sardines would be physical metal.
Rumours that this discrepancy would drive silver prices higher have been floating around for decades.

Ted Butler was a leading voice in this community. Ted had 25 years of commodity trading experience at big banks like Merrill Lynch, so he knew futures markets well.
He was a bulldog who insisted that the price of silver was being artificially suppressed. Specifically, he pointed to bullion and investment bank Bear Stearns, which was purchased by JPMorgan during the 2008 financial crisis.

Bear Stearns had a massive silver short position, which JPMorgan inherited. And Ted pointed to massive short positions like this as one key tool in the banks’ efforts to contain the price of silver.

Ted made the case for buying silver eloquently in one of his many interviews:

“The best reason to buy silver is that it’s artificially manipulated to the downside, and we know from history that manipulations have to end someday. And one day, when they do end, they end abruptly and violently. If it’s a downside manipulation as we have in COMEX silver, then the price will truly explode. You couldn’t find a better reason to buy silver than because it’s manipulated.”

Sadly, Ted Butler passed away in June of 2024. He didn’t get to see this incredible bull market. But his work alerted many thousands of investors to the explosive potential of silver.

And now, his thesis appears to be playing out in real time.

An Explosive Move
Over the past few months, silver has rocketed higher. Since the beginning of September, the price has run from $40 to a recent high of $64. Currently, prices are cooling a bit, trading around $62, but this is a perfectly healthy correction.

Part of the explanation is simple supply and demand. India is gobbling up silver for investment purposes. China is devouring it to build solar panels, and Asian investors have developed a taste for it as well.

Here in the U.S., investors are finally waking up to the silver story.
With the price jumping, industrial users are stockpiling in case it continues, and more investors are getting on board.

Meanwhile, silver inventories at the COMEX, Shanghai, and London’s LBMA are dwindling. The silver squeeze is in full effect.

In the near term, a price correction wouldn’t be a bad thing. It would cool things off for a bit and allow for a more sustainable move upward.
But if this truly is the end of a massive scheme to suppress the price of silver, we may not get that pullback. If Ted Butler and others were right, this move could get even more explosive.

My plan remains the same. Hold strong.

We’ll keep digging into this silver price suppression story and see if we can get to the bottom of it. There are many other angles to explore. Look for more on that next week.

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https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump...ext-fed-chair/
Trump Says Kevin Warsh Back in the Picture for Next Fed Chair

December 12, 2025

7:32 pm

Trump Says Kevin Warsh Back in the Picture for Next Fed Chair

Economics

Will it be Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett?

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The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Says He Is Leaning Toward Warsh or Hassett to Lead the Fed
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal in the Oval Office on Friday, the president said Warsh was at the top of his list. “Yes, I think he is. I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both—I think the two Kevins are great,” he said. “I think there are a couple of other people who are great.”

Hassett has been increasingly viewed as the front-runner after Trump repeatedly teased in recent weeks that he had settled on his choice to lead the Fed, but Trump’s comments suggest Warsh remains solidly in contention.

During a 45-minute meeting with Warsh on Wednesday at the White House, the president pressed Warsh on whether he could trust him to support interest-rate cuts if he were chosen to lead the central bank, according to people familiar with the meeting. Trump, in the Journal interview, confirmed that reporting.
“He thinks you have to lower interest rates,” Trump said of Warsh. “And so does everybody else that I’ve talked to.”

Asked where he wants interest rates to be a year from now, Trump said, “1% and maybe lower than that.” He said rate cuts would help the U.S. Treasury reduce the costs of financing $30 trillion in government debt.

“We should have the lowest rate in the world,” he said.

“I won’t have anybody on the Federal Reserve that, when you have good news, that means you automatically raise interest rates through the roof to kill inflation,” Trump said. “If you have lots of good news, they will do everything they can to stop it, because they’re so afraid of inflation.”

Kevin!

One Requirement for the Job
There is one and only one requirement for the job, any job within the administration, and every Trump appointment: If I can be blunt, Kiss Trump’s ass, regardless of economic consequences.

Warsh is trying to convince Trump he is up to the task.

I am sure Hassett is fully on board. But is Warsh a sincere ass kisser? I don’t know, and I don’t think we will find out.

The Rate Cut Debate
Meanwhile, please note Fed Officials Spar Over Whether Rate Cuts Risk Credibility on Inflation

The central bank voted 9-3 on Wednesday to cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. Two voters favoured no cut, and one preferred a larger reduction. It was the first time since 2019 that three policymakers had formally dissented.

One of this week’s dissenters, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, said Friday morning he opposed cutting rates because he doesn’t see evidence that interest rates are putting downward pressure on inflation by slowing economic activity, on balance.

“Right now, I see an economy that is showing momentum and inflation that is too hot, suggesting that policy is not overly restrictive,” he said. Schmid also dissented in October.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who also voted against cutting, suggested his disagreement centered more on tactical considerations. He backed cuts in September and October and said Friday he thought the Fed could continue lowering rates, but didn’t want to move so aggressively because inflation has been stubborn.

“If we can just get the dust out of the air, fundamentally, rates can go down a fair amount from where they are today,” Goolsbee said at a conference in Chicago.
The central bank voted 9-3 on Wednesday to cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. Two voters favoured no cut, and one preferred a larger reduction. It was the first time since 2019 that three policymakers had formally dissented.

One of this week’s dissenters, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, said Friday morning he opposed cutting rates because he doesn’t see evidence that interest rates are putting downward pressure on inflation by slowing economic activity, on balance.
“Right now, I see an economy that is showing momentum and inflation that is too hot, suggesting that policy is not overly restrictive,” he said. Schmid also dissented in October.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who also voted against cutting, suggested his disagreement centered more on tactical considerations. He backed cuts in September and October and said Friday he thought the Fed could continue lowering rates, but didn’t want to move so aggressively because inflation has been stubborn.

“If we can just get the dust out of the air, fundamentally, rates can go down a fair amount from where they are today,” Goolsbee said at a conference in Chicago.
Recent divisions reflect a dilemma the Fed hasn’t faced in more than 15 years: stubborn inflation that calls for higher rates paired with a softening job market that suggests a need for lower rates. “So what do you do?” Powell said on Wednesday. “You’ve got one tool. You can’t do two things at once.”


CME Fedwatch Odds
As of today, CME Fedwatch data shows there is a 75.6 percent chance the Fed stands pat in January.
I have no idea because we do not have enough data.

But the next meeting is not until January 28. By then, we will have November and December data.

The BLS will report December CPI data on January 13 and jobs data on January 9. Those two reports can dramatically change the odds.

Powell Blames Tariffs for Inflation, Says Job Growth Is Negative
On December 10, I reported Powell Blames Tariffs for Inflation, Says Job Growth Is Negative

In the press conference, Powell blamed tariffs and said the BLS overestimated jobs.
And in case you missed it, please note that President Trump promised a Manufacturing Boom. Where Is It?

The answer is China.

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The Maths of a Debt Trap by Alasdair Macleod
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By Alasdair Macleod

January 5, 2026

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Stagnating economies, together with high government debt loads, inevitably create funding crises and debt traps. Nowhere is this problem more destructive than for the fiat dollar.

But it’s not just the dollar. Economies in the Eurozone and the UK have insufficient growth to support their colossal mountains of government debt. In this article, I explain the mechanics of a debt trap. And how a combination of rising interest rates reflecting growing risk and stagnating economies brings on debt traps, leading to yet higher interest rates, making the situation even worse.

My memory is of the sterling crisis in 1976, when the IMF bailed out the British government, and the Bank of England had to fund medium-term debt with gilt coupons of over 15%. The Labour government was forced to cut its spending to resolve the situation. So I have a question for today: who is going to bail out first, the US Government, then the UK and Eurozone, and who is going to force them to cut spending on the edge of a recession?

Only the markets will do it: crisis first, and only if we are lucky, the solution follows. Read on…

Introduction
Understanding debt, the counterpart of credit, is of increasing importance. For example, it is the other side of bank credit, and when banks become overleveraged, there comes a time when their managers become concerned about the risk to their balance sheets. In any economy, the risk is conventionally understood to be in private sector lending, and a recession is part and parcel of the withholding of further credit, leading to corporate and personal insolvencies. Under these circumstances, banks redirect their balance sheet assets from private sector loans and corporate bonds to government debt, which is seen as the risk-free asset in any currency.

There are signs that, with respect to some jurisdictions, these views are evolving, with the outlook for government debt being examined more closely. There is also little confidence in economic prospects for all the major economies and in improving government budgets.

Given mounting government debts, debt is a problem no longer confined to the private sector, which has suffered from the generally unexpected rise in interest rates over the last few years. And governments in the advanced economies appear to have little sense of the debt trap being sprung upon them, too. As well as the rate of nominal GDP growth, the interest rate matters and a combination of slowing economies moving into recession together with high interest rates is a lethal combination for government finances.

More specifically than GDP growth, what matters is the growth in tax revenue required to fund the pace at which the combination of debt and interest is being rolled over. In Europe and the UK, tax rates are already so high that attempts to obtain more revenue by increasing them will almost certainly lead to lower revenues due to the Laffer curve effect. The US is probably not at that point yet tax-wise, but economic stagnation has the same effect.

The following table illustrates government indebtedness relative to GDP for the G7 nations and also relative to private sector GDP, which produces the revenue for governments upon which debt credibility depends.
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Various papers have been written on this problem, all concluding that a debt trap occurs when the rate of GDP growth falls to below the rate at which the cost of funding the debt increases. But it is surely more correct to compare the rate of increase of tax revenues with the rate of increase of the debt: do tax revenues increase more rapidly than the debt, or does the compounding debt increase more rapidly than revenues?

How did governments cut the debt-to-GDP ratio following WW2?
Much of the complacency over government debt levels arises from the fact that high WW2 debt levels were reduced over the following two decades to manageable levels, fuelling a belief that it can be done again. America’s government debt to GDP in 1946 peaked at 120%, below current peace-time levels, falling to 35% in 1971 when Nixon suspended the Bretton Woods Agreement. The relevant figures are shown in the table below.
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The increase in gross Federal debt was 142%, but the increase in GDP was 483%. And the increase in revenue, which ultimately pays for the debt, was slightly more than the increase in GDP. Therefore, revenue growth outpaced debt growth nearly three and a half times, leading to a significant reduction in debt to GDP. This was how the war debt relative to GDP was reduced, before the discipline of gold on government spending and interest rates was finally abandoned.

The common belief that debt reduction was due to financial repression, that is to say, the cost of funding was suppressed by central bank interest rate policies and yield curve control, is incorrect. To understand why, we need to address another point. And that is what happened to prices. The dollar and through the dollar all other currencies were tied to gold at $35 for the whole 25 years, but the CPI for Urban Consumers rose from 22 to 40, nearly doubling at an average annual rate of about 0.7%. Yet, measured in gold, there should have been no inflation, because the expansion of economic activity under a gold standard is expected to lead to better
manufacturing processes, product improvements, and a tendency towards falling prices.

The problems with a CPI measure are many. Logically, there is no such thing as a statistical measure of price inflation, the subjectivity of which has been clearly demonstrated in more recent decades by wildly differing estimates. Government intervention in the economy distorts outcomes, and the savings rate fluctuated, but not enough to explain the disparity between a steady gold standard and a statistical outcome.

A cleaner price comparison is found in commodity prices. Oil was pegged at $2.57 per barrel, increasing to $3.56, which held until 1973: that’s a 38% increase compared with a near doubling of US consumer prices. Copper was similarly more stable priced in gold, as the next chart demonstrates.
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That both copper and oil did increase in price by either measure in the post-war years can be explained by demand increasing for these commodities more rapidly than supply. But this does not get around the fact that with the dollar supposedly acting as a gold substitute at a fixed value of $35 per ounce, there is an unexplained disparity in consumer price performance. The answer is that the Bretton Woods system ended up suppressing the value of gold, evidenced by the selling down of US gold reserves from 21,828.2 tonnes in 1949, representing over 70% of global official reserves and 45% of total above-ground stocks, to 9,069.7 tonnes, less than 25% of global official reserves and only 12% of above-ground stocks in 1971.

The suspension of the Bretton Woods Agreement in August 1971, far from removing gold from the monetary system, had the effect of releasing gold from its increasing suppression by US economic policies in the post-war years. It is important to understand this relationship in its proper context, now that in this new millennium US Government debt is spiralling out of control.

This millennium is different from the post-war years
The next table replicates the first table in this article, but for the 25 years of this current millennium.
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Here, we can see that gross debt has been rising nearly three times faster than GDP, and even more so measured in the federal government revenues, which are behind the sustainability of the debt. With the increase in revenue badly lagging the debt increase, the US Treasury is in a classic debt trap, a condition which has been accelerating, particularly since the pandemic of 2020. It is a fact that is increasingly recognized by foreign central bankers who are getting out of dollars and into gold.

The second element of the debt trap – soaring interest rates
So far, we have seen that in the first 25 years of this new century, the increase in tax revenue has failed lamentably to keep pace with the increasing growth of debt. For the US Government, this has not mattered too much while the Fed was able to suppress interest rates even to the zero bound and therefore contain the compounding cost of funding. Additionally, with the dollar being everyone’s reserve currency, foreign buyers were always demanding them and investing in the regulatory “risk-free” status of US Treasury debt. It is this combination which has extended the dollar’s life as a fiat currency, pushing it even further into a debt trap waiting to be sprung by higher interest rates.

Interest rate suppression is less evident today, at least not to the degree of recent years. The sharp rise in interest rates and bond yields between 2021—2023 has only partially been corrected in the belief that inflation has receded as a problem. This is an error, because the inflationary consequences of a $2+ trillion budget deficit and a decline in the personal savings rate will continue to feed into a falling purchasing power for the currency. And geopolitical factors encourage members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, representing a large majority of the world’s population, to reduce their dollar exposure as well.

Both these factors are feeding into an inevitable funding crisis for the US Government, as foreign buyers of US Treasury debt stay away, and in some cases are actually selling. And instead of interest rates and bond yields being under the control of the Fed, they will be exposed to the brutal consequences of falling market demand. A buyers’ strike by foreign investors at the margin is already forcing the US Treasury to fund itself in short-term T-bills, with auctions for longer maturities being generally avoided. Increasingly, the $38.6 trillion debt mountain sees longer maturities being replaced by T-bills as well. The whole maturity structure of US Treasury debt is changing, and it is not for the good.

The yield curve has begun to price in maturity risk, with the 30-year long bond yielding 68 basis points more than the 10-year note, and 127 bp more than the 6-month T-bill. But there is a further problem: in a debt trap, the higher the funding cost, the less attractive an investment proposition becomes, because the compounding pace at which the debt rises accelerates.

The consequences of the credit bubble
For every debt, there is a credit, and in recent years, significant quantities of this credit have found their way into financial instruments, particularly equities. As the interest cost on this debt increases, the credit side of the bubble will burst. Today, the disparity between the returns on long maturity bonds and equities is at a record, illustrated by the chart below:
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It is worth taking time to study this chart closely. Not only is the excessive value of the S&P over the long bond greater than it has ever been, but it also shows signs of going higher due to rising bond yields. This will only be resolved by an equity crash to rival or even exceed anything seen in history.

It is hardly a surprise that gold measured in dollars is rising at an accelerating rate. It reflects and signals that a final collapse in the dollar’s credibility as a currency is underway.

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NOTE: This factual article was edited by BWM using GRAMMARLY SOFTWARE.

Everyone reading this article needs to understand what it really means for the future of the financial structure of the world and how you can personally benefit from this knowledge.

For further information, please email me at [email protected] or call me at 819 275 7780 in Quebec, Canada.

Happy New Year 2026 !!!

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What You Aren’t Being Told About The World You Live In

How The “Conspiracy Theory” Label Was Conceived To Derail The Truth Movement

How Covert American Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive and Destroy Reputations

January 9, 2026

Trump Frees Russians And Proclaims “I Don’t Need International Law”
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A thought-provoking new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting the United States Embassy in Ukraine issued the warning alert yesterday: ”The U.S. embassy in Kyiv has received information concerning a potentially significant air attack that may occur at any time over the next several days”, says this warning alert was followed by the Ministry of Defense (MoD) announcing this morning: “Overnight today, in response to a terrorist attack by the Kiev regime on the residence of the Russian president in the Novgorod Region, carried out on the night of 29 December 2025, the Russian armed forces conducted a massive strike using long-range, high-precision weapons launched from land- and sea-based platforms, including the Oreshnik medium-range mobile ground-based missile system, as well as strike unmanned aerial vehicles, against critically important facilities on the Ukrainian territory”.

Last year on 21 June, this report notes, Russian basketball player Daniil Kasatkin was arrested in France at the request of the United States—an illegal arrest followed by the Federal Security Service (FSB) announcing today: “Moscow has conducted a prisoner swap with Paris, exchanging jailed French national Laurent Vinatier for detained basketball player Daniil Kasatkin”—an announcement joined by the United States releasing the two Russian citizens who were aboard the Ukrainian crewed vessel the Americans seized on Wednesday, quickly after which the Foreign Ministry issued the statement: “We welcome this decision and express our gratitude to the US leadership”.

Along with ordering the freeing of wrongfully detained Russian citizens, this report continues, President Donald Trump proclaimed last evening: “My own morality...My own mind...It’s the only thing that can stop me...I don’t need international law” and warned: “We are going to start now hitting land with regard to the cartels...The cartels are running Mexico”—the Washington Post quickly observed: “The president has flexed U.S. military muscle more vigorously in the past 12 months than he did in all four years of his first term”—and a European Union diplomat warned Politico: “We must be ready for a direct confrontation with Trump...He is in an aggressive mode, and we need to be geared up”.

Joining President Trump proclaiming: “I don’t need international law”, this report details, it was also revealed: “President Trump announced plans to withdraw the United States from nearly 70 global organizations”—a revelation swiftly followed by the news: “President Donald Trump declared he would ask Congress for a $1.5 trillion defense budget in 2027, a massive $500 billion increase from this year’s Pentagon budget...The president provided few details in his post on Truth Social, other than to say the money would pay for his “Dream Military””.

To support the building of his “Dream Military”, this report notes, President Trump ordered American defense companies to stop stock buybacks and paying dividends because they are producing military equipment too slowly, and it was also observed: “President Trump threatened to kneecap a division of RTX, the world's second-largest defense contractor, if it did not step up and invest in plants and equipment...It was unclear how Trump could enforce such dictates on private companies, though his subsequent threat to Raytheon suggested he may cut federal contracts to firms he sees as out of compliance”.

While President Trump frees himself from international law as he builds his “Dream Military”, this report concludes, the Wall Street Journal worryingly assessed: “President Trump’s new “Donroe Doctrine”—loudly proclaimed by the seizure of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and the president’s assertion that Washington now “runs” the Latin American country—seeks to establish U.S. hegemony over the entire Western Hemisphere...The question America’s adversaries and allies are asking themselves in the aftermath of the Caracas raid is whether this embrace of 19th-century-style imperial thinking also means a pivot away from the rest of the world that would give China and Russia greater sway in their neighborhoods”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]


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January 9, 2026 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

2025 Has Been Tough But Next Year Will Be Even Worse

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January 09, 2026

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Gold and Silver in 2026
Richard (Rick) Mills

Mining Expert & Financial Writer
January 9, 2026

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is made up of exchange-traded futures on 22 commodities and is widely mimicked by ETFs and fund managers. On Nov. 28, 2025, the weighting for gold was at 19.4% and silver at 7.1%. On Jan. 8 the BCOM is set to change its 2026 target weight to 4.9% weighed to gold and 3.9% to silver.

This is happening on both precious metals because of the large price movements since the end of November. A very large rebalancing trade is going to start this week and continue over five business days. A lot of index funds mirror the BCOM and will have to rebalance starting the 8th.

But the bull market in gold and silver will continue.

The other thing making the news recently is the anticipated crash from a selloff in the PM markets where so many are comparing this period to the late ’70’s. I’ve done it to the early 1970’s, stagflation, but the difference is what happened in the later part of that decade. Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker jacked interest rates, yields spiked, the US dollar strengthened and the bull in PMs was over.

That is not happening this time, yields are 1%-bound starting in May; Trump wants a 1% Fed policy rate. So, absolutely yes to lower US interest rates. Trump takes control of the Federal Reserve in May, and it’s guaranteed to result in at least a half-point cut.

The Fed does not control long-term yields, just short-term. So, and it’s already happening, long yields go up, bond vigilantes will step in here as well, then the US Treasury really steps up, (they have been quietly buying) and starts buying the US debt rollover, and buying new US debt by printing money to buy short-term debt.

(There is a group of powerful investors that not only watch US Treasury yields closely, but they take an active part in influencing the bond market, especially if they don’t like the economic policies of the administration. Bond vigilantes are investors who sell government bonds in response to fiscal policies they view as inflationary or irresponsible, driving up borrowing costs for the government. — Investopedia definition)

The Fed is lowering rates in the face of rising inflation to goose the US consumer, which is 70% of US economy. This is the best thing the government could do if it wanted inflation to really soar, and let’s remember the US consumer already has record credit card, student loan and mortgage debt. And the US is shedding jobs.

US consumer debt hit a record high of approximately $18.6 trillion in late 2025, driven primarily by mortgages, but we’re also seeing significant increases in credit card and student loan balances, though student loan delinquencies are rising, indicating potential stress, especially for younger borrowers. The largest portions of this debt are mortgages (around $13 trillion) and auto/student loans, with credit card debt also at a peak of over $1.2 trillion.

Consumers have been the main engine of the U.S. economy. A healthy job market and solid, rising wages have largely fueled this spending. Looking back over the past two decades, average wages in the US have outpaced inflation more than 70% of the time. This has been particularly concentrated among high-income households, who are less affected by inflation and higher interest rates due to their rising net worths from assets like stocks and real estate.

However, it is important to note that, for a period between April 2021 and late 2022, the situation reversed as a surge in inflation (due to supply chain issues and other global events) meant that prices rose much faster than wages, eroding purchasing power. The current period marks a recovery from that time. At AOTH we believe the current period marks a recovery from that time.

In 2025 gold rocketed higher due to a combination of factors, including safe haven demand arising from numerous geopolitical hot spots — Gaza, Ukraine, and recently, Venezuela — a lower US dollar which is always good for metals prices; central bank buying; robust gold-backed ETF inflows; a cooling US labor market; and the prospect of the Fed lowering interest rates further this year.


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There are also structural supply constraints on gold, silver and copper. AOTH research has found that for all three metals, for the past several years, supply can’t meet demand without recycling.

The silver market continues its longest streak of supply deficits in recent years, with the 2025 World Silver survey noting 2025 was the fifth straight year of supply not meeting demand. Mine production has fallen to 813 million ounces, unable to keep pace with surging demand mostly from industrial (but also monetary) applications.

While the many estimates vary, their sources suggest there are roughly four to seven times more ounces of gold available above ground than investable silver. The total amount of above-ground fine silver bullion for investment is estimated to be around 3 to 3.5 billion ounces, much lower than gold’s supply of approximately 7.6 billion ounces.

While most of the world’s mined gold is still around, either cast as jewelry, or smelted into bullion and stored for investment purposes, the same cannot be said for silver. It’s estimated that 60% of silver is utilized in industrial applications, leaving only 40% for investing. Of the 60% used for industrial applications almost 80% ends up in landfills.

From Kitco comes this interesting tidbit, “Despite gold’s ascent to successive all-time highs in 2025 and new all-time highs being made today, American institutional and retail investors have maintained remarkably tepid exposure to the precious metal, presenting what Goldman Sachs analysts characterize as a significant structural opportunity for continued price appreciation.”

From Jan. 1, China will require exporters of silver, tungsten and antimony to obtain licenses from the Ministry of Commerce. This is expected to further tighten the market for silver, since China is the world’s second-highest silver producer behind Mexico.

In November 2025 silver was among 10 minerals the US Department of Defense added to the US Geological Survey’s 2025 List of Critical Minerals.
For the first time, silver was recognized as having growing importance to US economic and national security. This inclusion signals enhanced government focus on securing domestic supply chains through enhanced permitting, subsidies and strategic stockpiling initiatives.

Not 1979
2025 was the best year for gold since 1979, leading some commentators to draw parallels between that period in history and the present day. There are certainly geopolitical similarities. 1979 was when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, and the year the Iranian Revolution spiked oil prices. In 2026, we have continued simmering hot spots in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the evolving crisis in Venezuela — all of which are boosting demand for gold.
2026 and 1979 also show a weak US dollar. As in the late 1970s, the dollar has weakened, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. The Street notes the first half of 2025 was the buck’s worst H1 performance since 1973. It ended 2025 about 10% lower.
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But what happened in 1979 is extremely unlikely to happen in 2026.
Between 1979 and 1982, the Fed under Chairman Paul Volcker tackled the problem of high inflation by lifting interest rates to a historic high of 20%, causing a recession in the process.
Higher interest rates made US Treasuries attractive, which boosted demand for dollars. The dollar rose and gold prices tanked.
Today, despite similar economic conditions to 1979, the Fed is poised to do the opposite: cut interest rates and keep the dollar low.
The Street notes that, while inflation is nowhere near what it was in the late 1970s, about 8%, in 2025 it was “sticky”, meaning above the Fed’s 2% target. Normally this would result in the Fed hiking rates, but instead it has lowered them due to concerns over a soft labor market.
The Fed has cut short-term rates three times since September and they now range between 3.5 and 3.75%, the lowest since 2022. According to Fed fund futures, the market expects at least two quarter-point rate cuts next year.


As I mentioned at the top, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires in March and President Trump is widely expected to appoint a chair who agrees with his low-interest-rate stance. Trump has said he wants a 1% Fed rate policy, so the US is zero bound again.
Powell recently stated there is nothing to suggest concern about inflation in the long-term, so why are rates going up? As the two charts below show, the 10-year yield has risen from 3.99% on Nov. 26, 2025, to the current 4.16%, a gain of 0.17%, while the 30-year yield has gained 0.22% over the same period.
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The Street observes that Expectations that the central bank’s independence may become compromised in May have already led to market distortions. Long-term interest rates have stayed higher than expected, even after the Fed began cutting rates in September.

Another point of view says long-term rates currently embed a premium due to uncertainty over Powell’s successor.Even perceived interference by the government in Fed policymaking could lead to higher long-term borrowing costs, BBVA Research says. This would defeat the Trump administration’s efforts to lower them…

According to analysts at the CPM Group, “reduced faith in the U.S. central bank’s independence already is and would continue to be very supportive of gold and silver investment demand.
Central bank buying
Central bank buying continues to be a significant gold demand driver, and increasingly, silver demand driver.

As trust in the dollar, the leading reserve currency, is tested by inflation, sanctions, and shifting alliances, many countries are turning to gold as a store of value.In the third quarter of 2025, central banks globally bought an estimated 200 tonnes, 28% higher than the second quarter and 6% above the five-year quarterly average.
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According to ING, up to Dec. 8, year-to-date purchases totaled 254 tonnes, with Poland the stand-out buyer at 531 tonnes, or 26% of total reserves.

China bought gold for the 13th month in a row, in November adding 0.93 tonnes or 30,000 ounces, bringing its total gold holdings to 2,305 tonnes or 74.1Moz.
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Among the countries considering buying more gold are South Korea, which hasn’t bought bullion since 2013, Madagascar and Serbia.

ING notes the pace of central bank gold buying doubled following the freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves by the G7 and the European Union after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In 2024, central banks bought a combined 1,045 tonnes, with Poland, India and Turkey the largest buyers, states the World Gold Council.The combined official gold reserves of BRICS member states now exceed 6,000 tonnes, with Russia leading at 2,336 tonnes, followed by China with 2,298 tonnes and India with 880 tonnes. Brazil added 16 tonnes in September 2025—its first purchase since 2021—bringing its total reserves to 145.1 tonnes.
The dual strategy of high internal gold production alongside the accumulation of strategic reserves positions BRICS as both a key supplier and a major influence in the physical gold market.

Between 2020 and 2024, central banks of BRICS member states purchased more than 50% of the global gold supply, systematically reducing their reliance on dollar-denominated assets. A recent infographic by Visual Capitalist shows that Russia and China have stockpiled the most gold since 2000, more than triple the next highest country, India.

The chart, which visualizes the net additions to official gold reserves from 2000 to 2024, reveals that Russia narrowly edged out China with a 1,984-tonne increase compared to China’s 1,885 tonnes.Why are Russia and China hoarding gold? According to Visual Capitalist,The dramatic increase in gold holdings by Russia and China is part of a broader effort to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. After facing Western sanctions, Russia has accelerated its de-dollarization strategy, favoring gold to protect reserves from seizure or devaluation.

China’s motives are also strategic. Amid trade tensions with the U.S. and a growing desire to internationalize the yuan, Beijing has been quietly amassing gold, often through discreet central bank purchases and reported transfers from domestic mines.

Russia and China have also engaged in bilateral gold trade deals that bypass the US financial system, moves that align with a broader trend where central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries.

BRICS member India has boosted its reserves by 518 tonnes in response to currency volatility and inflation concerns, Turkey added 501 tonnes amid economic turbulence and lira devaluation, and Poland and Kazakhstan each amassed hundreds of tonnes as part of strategies to diversify their reserves, Visual Capitalist states.Gulf states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia are also increasing gold holdings.
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Source: Visual Capitalist
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Source: Visual Capitalist

The IMF doesn’t recognize silver as an official reserve asset, but that isn’t stopping central banks from purchasing the monetary/ industrial metal
Three central banks — Russia, India and Saudi Arabia — have reportedly entered the silver market.

India’s foray into central bank silver buying is due to its remonetisation of silver. As of April 2026, silver will officially be allowed to serve as collateral for bank and non-bank loans under new Reserve Bank of India regulations. The move, one source says, effectively establishes a 10 to 1 silver-to-gold ratio in collateral lending, marking the first time a major economy has formally recognized silver’s role alongside gold in modern banking.
The country reportedly bought 6,000 tonnes of silver in 2025, which accounts for 25% of annual silver supply. At today’s spot silver price of $78.84 an ounce, that works out to USD$16,686,012,960.
Investment interest increasing
Gold and silver’s monstrous gains in 2025 have, unsurprisingly, been noticed by retail and institutional investors.
The ING piece states that Q3 2025 marked a record-high for gold-backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF) inflows, with gold ETF investors adding 222 tonnes, coming close to the November 2020 all-time high.
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In India, the largest consumer of silver, the price rocketed 180% year on year during Diwali, India’s harvest festival, as consumers pivoted from too-expensive gold to cheaper silver.
According to trade data cited by Indian business media, India’s silver imports were expected to reach 5,500–6,000 tonnes in 2025, extending an already elevated trend from 2024.

Much of this demand was investment-oriented, with retail participation through silver ETFs remaining strong even after Diwali.Based on data from the Silver Institute and market tracking groups, global investment demand for silver via ETFs and funds surged dramatically in 2025. By mid-year, 95 million ounces of silver had flowed into ETFs globally, already surpassing total inflows for all of 2024. (Equiti.com)
Silver’s new industrial uses
Silver has a multitude of industrial applications. This includes solar power, the automotive industry, brazing and soldering, 5G, and printed and flexible electronics.

Solar

As the metal with the highest electrical and thermal conductivity, silver is ideally suited to solar panels. A Saxo Bank report stated that “potential substitute metals cannot match silver in terms of energy output per solar panel.”Roughly 14% of industrial silver demand now flows into photovoltaics (PV), a figure that has tripled in less than a decade.Using silver as conductive ink, photovoltaic cells transform sunlight into electricity. Silver paste within the solar cells ensures the electrons move into storage or towards consumption, depending on the need.For every gigawatt of solar energy produced, 700,000 ounces of silver are consumed, according to the Silver Academy. With global solar capacity additions projected to hit 467 GW in 2024—a 460% surge since 2015 — silver demand for photovoltaics alone could exceed 232 million ounces in 2025.
New solar panels to use more silver, driving demand higher — Richar Mills
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Electronics

Electronics accounts for roughly 30% of industrial consumption, more than any other category. The metal’s unmatched conductivity and resistance to corrosion make it indispensable in applications ranging from power grids to smartphones. (Guardian Gold, Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2024/2025; Silver Institute industry overview)

The largest slice, nearly 70Moz annually, goes into electrical contacts and switches. The second major slice, around 45 Moz, is consumed in high end solders and conductive pastes.Around 30Moz flows into printed circuit boards and semiconductors. Finally, about 20Moz goes into consumer electronics — smartphones, tablets, laptops, wearables. Each device contains just milligrams of silver, but when billions are produced annually, the numbers add up, states Guardian Gold.
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5G

5G technology is set to become another big new driver of silver demand. Among the 5G components requiring silver, are semiconductor chips, cabling, microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), and Internet of things (IoT)-enabled devices.The Silver Institute expects silver demanded by 5G to more than double, from its 2022 ~7.5 million ounces, to around 16Moz by 2025 and as much as 23Moz by 2030.
According to Shanghai Metal Market, 5G infrastructure deployment using silver in connection components was expected to reach 13 million base stations globally by 2025.

Automotive

Another major industrial demand driver for silver is the automotive industry. Silver is found in many car components throughout vehicles’ electronic systems.A Silver Institute report says battery electric vehicles contain up to twice as much silver as ICE-powered vehicles — between 20 and 50 grams depending on the model. Charging points and charging stations are also expected to demand a lot more silver. It estimates the sector’s demand for silver will rise to 88Moz in five years as the transition from traditional cars and trucks to EVs accelerates. Others estimate that by 2040, electric vehicles could demand nearly half of annual silver supply.
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Solid-state batteries
Citizen Watch Report (CWR) says solid state batteries are not only the future of electric vehicles, but could change energy storage due to their superior safety, energy density and longevity compared to lithium-ion batteries.

For instance, Samsung’s solid-state silver-carbon batteries promise a 600-mile range, 9-minute charging and a 20-year lifespan.
Silver-zinc batteries offer higher energy density and safer operation, making them ideal for medical devices and aerospace.

Solid-state batteries replace the liquid or gel electrolyte with a solid one, requiring silver for their construction. Each battery cell uses about 5 grams of silver, with a standard 100kWh battery pack potentially needing up to 1 kg of silver.According to CWR, “estimates suggest that if just 20% of global car production adopts this technology, the annual demand for silver could skyrocket to 16,000 metric tons. This figure is significant when considered against the backdrop of current global silver production, which hovers around 25,000 metric tons annually, highlighting a potential silver squeeze in the market.”Robotics

The robotics market, growing at 23% annually, could also strain silver supplies. The Silver Academy says “A typical $130,000 robot displacing 1.3 workers delivers a 65% IRR with a 1.5-year payback. These machines rely on silver for wiring and sensors, with AI-enhanced models driving demand further.”AI

Data centers are growing rapidly in size and number, leading to a significant increase in their consumption of energy, water and minerals. This expansion is largely driven by the increasing demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), cloud computing and digital services.
The physical infrastructure of data centers requires significant land and raw materials, including copper and silver, and rare earth elements for manufacturing chips. Server boards that connect the electrical components of a server and other intricate circuitry require minerals that efficiently conduct electricity and are resistant to corrosion — especially copper but also silver, gold, tin, tantalum, platinum and palladium.
Data centers are inherently energy-intensive, and their power consumption is projected to double globally by 2030, reaching around 945-980 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually. In some countries like the US, they could account for up to 12% of total electricity consumption by 2030, straining existing power grids. (AI Overview).
Data centers: gluttons for power water and minerals Part II — Richard Mills
Tech companies are plowing billions of dollars into data centers in pursuit of revolutionary advances in artificial intelligence.

According to Data Center Knowledge, despite the limitations of solar power, in terms of its intermittency, technology giants are racing to secure solar capacity. It reports the following:
Microsoft has added more than 860 MW of new solar capacity in 2024 alone, with projects spanning Illinois, Texas, Michigan, and Missouri, bringing its clean energy portfolio to more than 34 GW.

Meta has similarly scaled its solar footprint in Texas, developing three major projects totaling over 900 MW. Amazon leads all US companies in solar development, with 13.6 GW of solar capacity in progress – more than the total installed capacity of most states. This includes over 20 projects in Texas.Google is taking a hybrid approach, combining solar energy and battery storage. The company operates 312 MW of battery capacity and has entered a $20 billion partnership with Intersect Power to develop co-located clean energy and data center facilities.
Gold’s new industrial uses
Gold is obviously seen as less of an industrial metal than silver, but new uses are coming to the fore. In particular, gold is finding applications in AI-related technology.

Before we go there, it should be noted that gold plays a crucial role in electronic devices; like silver it is an excellent conductor of electricity, it does not corrode, and its physical and chemical properties allow it to be manipulated into extraordinarily thin wires and reliable coatings. These properties make it an indispensable component of the computer chips found in almost all electronic equipment. (The World Gold Council)

WGC notes that gold is an essential component in the manufacturing of AI-enabled devices. AI systems rely heavily on advanced hardware, including processors, memory chips and sensors, all of which utilize gold. Gold’s superior conductivity ensures that data can be processed and transmitted at high speed with minimal energy loss. Furthermore, gold’s resistance to corrosion ensures component longevity and durability – critical for continuous and intensive AI applications.
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Beyond AI, gold is used in medical devices such as implants, and gold nanoparticles are used in the medical diagnostics field; in aerospace, where gold is used in the production of critical components for satellites and spacecraft; and in clean technologies, where gold is an excellent chemical catalyst and a promising candidate material in the production of clean hydrogen and carbon dioxide transformation.
Geopolitics
A substantial amount of physical gold and silver buying as well as the purchase of precious metal stocks has come from safe-haven demand resulting from numerous areas of geopolitical tension.

Russia has been pounding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in recent weeks, leaving thousands across the country without power or heating amid freezing temperatures. Strikes on Kiev on Dec. 27 left more than 40% of residential buildings without heating, stated CNN.

An overnight Russian air attack killed at least two people in Ukraine’s capital.

Five days ago Russia said a Ukrainian drone strike in a Russian-occupied village in the Kherson region killed 24 and wounded at least 50.

And despite some good news Tuesday, in the form of a statement signed by Canada and Ukraine’s other allies to help secure Ukraine from further Russian invasions if there is a peace deal — the proposed security agreement would see a multinational force sent to aid Ukraine after a ceasefire takes hold — the Ukraine security conference in Paris was overshadowed by President Trump’s recent capture and prosecution of the Venezuelan president and his wife, and threats to annex Greenland.

“We do need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defense,” Trump told The Atlantic in an interview, describing the island as reportedly “surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships.”One of Trump’s senior advisors, Stephen Miller, refused to rule out the use of military force to take control of the self-ruling Danish territory, which has mineral and strategic significance.Major European allies warned the United States on Tuesday that they would “not stop defending” the values of sovereignty and territorial integrity should the US invade the Arctic island.

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said if Trump invades Greenland it will spell the end of NATO, which operates under the assumption that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all.

“But I will also make it clear that if the U.S. chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been established since the end of the Second World War,” Frederiksen added. The dramatic seizure of the Maduros is the most assertive action to achieve regime change since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. While ostensibly done to indict President Maduro on narco-terrorism charges, the Venezuelan government for months has said that Trump and the US are seeking to take Venezuela’s oil. The South American country is said to have the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves of approximately 303 billion barrels, according to the US Energy Information Association.Last Saturday CBC News reported Trump saying he will allow “very large United States oil companies” into Venezuela, who will spend the necessary billions to “fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country.”

There have been questions about the legality of the US operation, which was done without congressional approval.
Trump later told reporters on Air Force One that military action could soon be coming to Colombia and Mexico, adding that Cuba may fall on its own.

While China and other foreign governments have criticized the US removal of Maduro, there are now questions being asked whether the Trump administration’s action could make it easier for President Xi Jinping to make a move on Taiwan, CNBC reported on Monday.

The world is definitely becoming more dangerous with Trump as the commander-in-chief, despite promising voters that his “America First” doctrine would avoid foreign entanglements.Meanwhile in Iran, protests have started in at least 17 of its 31 provinces, “presenting the largest challenge to the country’s clerical establishment since 2022, a BBC Verify and BBC Persian analysis has found.”

Iranians are angry following a sharp devaluation of the currency.In the war-riddled part of Africa containing the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, DW reported “Violent fighting erupted on Saturday between pro-Kinshasa forces and M23 rebels near Uvira, a key border city connecting the DRC to Burundi, according to local sources.

“Kinshasa says Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have killed 1,500 civilians despite a US-brokered ceasefire, as fresh clashes erupt near Uvira and tensions spill into Burundi.”Finally, continuing conflict between Thailand and Cambodia resulted in a Thai soldier being wounded in a mortar attack in a disputed border region, Aljazeera reported, despite a ceasefire agreed to in late December.
Fighting last month killing dozens and displaced about one million on both sides.
US debt woes
A crisis is unfolding in the bond market that equity investors may not be aware of. Long-term government bond yields are rising across major economies as governments struggle to contain mounting debt burdens.

Japan’s 30-year bond yield currently sits at 3.4% compared to 2.2% a year ago.
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Japan has long faced a mountainous debt problem. A 260% debt-to-GDP ratio is by far the highest among all major economies. (Reuters)
What happens in Japan reverberates beyond, given that Japan is the largest holder of US Treasuries at about USD$1.2 trillion. If Japan were to sell Treasuries en masse, it could impact the ability of the United States to finance its ever-expanding spending, that is increasing under the Trump administration.

Last May, a $16-billion auction of 20-year bonds saw weak demand, forcing yields higher. In fact, the Federal Reserve had to step in to buy up nearly $2.2 billion of the $16 billion bond issue. Last Wednesday’s bond purchase came after the Fed bought up more than $40 billion in Treasuries.The 30-year Treasury breached 5%, reflecting concerns over rising deficits and long-term borrowing capacity.As a result, Moody’s downgraded its US debt rating from the top-level Aaa to Aa1. As investor confidence in US debt declines, borrowing costs could rise (higher yields are needed to attract investors to what are now considered riskier assets), increasing the interest burden on the US government. As yields go up, the US government must spend more of its revenues just to keep up with interest payments.

Asia Times recently reported the US reached a dubious milestone: trillion-dollar interest payments on runaway US government debt.

According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget, this is the “new norm” as the US national debt approaches $39 trillion.As the Trump administration auctions off more Treasury bonds to pay for this increasing shortfall, the question is who will buy them? Or in Asia Times’ words, “why would officials in Tokyo and Beijing, in their right minds, increase their exposure to the US economy at such a precarious moment?”Similar concerns were expressed by a panel of economic luminaries quoted by Bloomberg, who said “the long-run risk posed by mounting federal debt represented a paramount problem facing the US economy.”

The Congressional Budget Office confirms the Asia Times’ federal deficit figure, stating that this year it will reach $1.9 trillion, bringing total debt to about 100% of gross domestic product. That’s seen rising to about 118% of GDP in the next decade.
Dollar destruction
If the government can’t find enough foreign buyers to sop up its debt, the Fed will have to step in and buy Treasuries, much the same as it did during the quantitative easing that accompanied the financial crisis and the covid-19 pandemic. This, of course, is highly inflationary.

Inflation not only raises consumer and producer prices, it devalues the currency, i.e., the US dollar.In a recent article we discussed the BRICS move away from the dollar through the formation of a gold-backed currency, the Unit.
BRICS launch gold-backed currency — Richard Mills
The BRICS countries are moving away from the US dollar as the currency that settles international transactions, and gold is an integral part of the new settlement mechanism.

On Oct. 31, 2025, researchers launched a pilot to test a gold-anchored settlement “Unit” inside the 10-member BRICS+ bloc of countries, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.This was followed by a Unit prototype launched on Dec. 8.The Unit is a “digital trade currency” pilot created for settlement between BRICS economies. The initiative came from IRIAS, the International Research Institute for Advanced Systems.Importantly, the Unit does not replace national currencies. Rather, it aims to act as a neutral settlement tool that reduces reliance on the US dollar in trade between BRICS economies.
According to CCN:

The BRICS Unit is a gold-anchored digital trade currency designed for cross-border settlement.Its launch coincides with record public anxiety about dollar debasement, as shown in Google Trends data shared by Bloomberg.The prototype uses a 40% gold and 60% BRICS-currency basket that adjusts daily.The pilot signals a structural move toward de-dollarization and strengthens long-term global demand for gold.The tweet below shows how far the dollar has been devalued since the Fed was created in 1913. That year, one US dollar bought 30 Hershey’s chocolate bars.
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Another means of evaluating the strength of the dollar is to see what percentage of central banks exchange reserves are in dollars.

Wolf Street recently reported that in Q3 2025, the share of USD-denominated assets held by other central banks than the US dropped to 56.9% of total foreign exchange reserves — the lowest since 1994.
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Remember, central banks now own more gold than US Treasuries.

The data came via the IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves.
But Wolf Street makes an important point.It’s not that central banks are dumping dollars; rather, they are still adding to their dollar holdings, it’s just that they are adding more of other currencies, and gold.“Particularly”, says Wolf Richter, “a gaggle of smaller currencies whose combined share has surged, while central banks’ holdings of USD-denominated assets haven’t changed much for a decade, and so the percentage share of those USD assets continued to decline.”Commentators mostly talk about the dollar, interest rates, and bond yields in the context of gold, but Tavi Costa, former partner at Crescat Capital, recently chose to comment on silver — although the chart he posts shows how the price of gold spiked during the hyperinflationary years of Germany’s Weimar Republic.

While not suggesting that the two time periods, now and Weimar Germany, are similar, he does see a resemblance from a price-performance standpoint. While US inflation was “sticky” throughout 2025, never falling below 2.3%, silver gained 147%.
Costa suggests that among all the reasons for silver rising, a depreciating currency is paramount:

“There have been no major discoveries, no meaningful supply response, while demand continues to rise structurally, all while a monetary crisis quietly builds. This is the kind of price behavior typically observed in emerging markets when confidence in the currency is eroding.”
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Conclusion
Given all that has been discussed in this article, it should be clear that I believe the bull market for gold and silver is not over.
Among the demand drivers for both are geopolitical hot spots like Venezuela, central bank purchases, increased investor interest, inflation, lower interest rates, a continuing low dollar, and new industrial uses for gold and silver, particularly around electrification and AI.

With a lack of new discoveries and ore grades falling, the supply of gold and silver is failing to meet the demand, without recycling.As for how long the momentum could last, Kitco cites one commentator, veteran precious metals executive Robert Gottlieb, who argues there is a structural shift going on that is not temporary: “This is people waking up to hard assets as a necessity.”

That brings up a frequently asked question: In a precious metals bull market, is it better to own physical gold/silver, or PM mining stocks?I’ve always maintained that mining stocks, particularly juniors, offer the best leverage to rising commodity prices, and apparently, I’m not alone.Another Kitco article cites Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund (GOLDX), who says that “the conditions that have driven gold prices to record highs above $4,400 an ounce remain firmly in place, supporting higher prices and robust earnings.

“He said he expects U.S. interest rates to trend lower this year, regardless of who leads the Federal Reserve, while economic momentum softens. At the same time, central bank demand—particularly from China—remains a structural feature of the market.“That backdrop, he says, is now translating directly into margin expansion for producers.”But it’s not only the producers who have gained and are set to do even better in 2026.Respected precious metals analyst Adam Hamilton observed that, after slumping badly a year ago, 2025 was the year that PM mining stocks finally caught up with soaring gold and silver prices. Hamilton references the huge gains in gold miner and junior gold miner ETFs GDX and GDXJ, and notes that silver bested even Nvidia in 2025.

After years of being starved of capital, funding finally returned to junior mining in 2025, meaning a lot of companies executed drilling and exploration programs whose results are still trickling in.Major miners still occasionally make discoveries, but usually it’s in partnership with juniors. Juniors almost always find the early-stage, high-potential targets that will become the next mines.
The mining industry is on the hunt — Richard Mills
Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com
*********

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Richard Mills is a mining expert, financial writer, and the owner of Aheadoftheherd.com. He invests in the junior resource/bio-tech sectors and his articles have been published on over 400 websites, including: WallStreetJournal, SafeHaven, MarketOracle, USAToday, NationalPost, Stockhouse, Lewrockwell, Pinnacledigest, UraniumMiner, SeekingAlpha, MontrealGazette, CaseyResearch, 24hgold, VancouverSun, CBSnews, SilverBearCafe, Infomine, HuffingtonPost, Mineweb, 321Gold, Kitco, Gold-Eagle, The Gold/Energy Reports, CalgaryHerald, ResourceInvestor, Mining.com, Forbes, FNArena, Uraniumseek, FinancialSense, Goldseek, Dallasnews, Vantagewire, Resourceclips and the Association of Mining Analysts.
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I agree with Money Flow concept. I am a 4H / 1Htrader. Why should I get into Fundamental Information to ascertain Money flow ? There are easier methods to do that.

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https://www.moneymetals.com/news/202...squeeze-004604

Silver and gold are both blasting higher today, conquering their prior highs achieved in December.

The upward momentum across the entire precious metals complex is startling...

... especially to mainstream financial advisors who have so negligently refused to give their clients exposure to this key asset class, thanks to bias and groupthink.
That's financial malpractice, if you ask us.

As such, virtually all Americans continue to sit out the most impressive bull market in precious metals seen in decades, even as funds, central banks, and the retail public in Asia continue to snap up gold and silver at record rates.

While there are hints that this is changing, most of the mainstream continues to belittle gold and silver, predicting a crash.

The main driver of these remarkable price moves lately is physical demand from Asia. Premiums in that part of the world are sucking in metal via arbitrage, and as natural market forces incentivize the transportation of metal.

Thanks to Money Metals' robust inventory management system and strong balance sheet, virtually all products remain in stock at Money Metals.

This is simply not the case at most other online dealers, plagued by inventory issues and shipping delays.

Premiums in the market have risen on most items, but there are still a few tremendous values – even by historical standards. For example, pre-1965 silver dimes and quarters are available at Money Metals for $1 BELOW SPOT!

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January 12, 2026

Acting President Of Venezuela Targets Federal Reserve For Criminal Destruction

By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
A world order upending new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Donald Trump posted a declaration yesterday proclaiming himself to be the “Acting President of Venezuela”, says this declaration was joined by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posting the alert: “Stop what you are doing and read this”, which linked to a story about the sonic weapon used to capture the previous Venezuelan president and revealed: “This account from a Venezuelan security guard loyal to Nicolás Maduro is absolutely chilling—and it explains a lot about why the tone across Latin America suddenly changed”.

As the new acting president of Venezuela, this report notes, President Trump met with American oil giant leaders last week, where CEO Darren Woods of ExxonMobil, the largest investor-owned oil company in the world, most factually assessed: “Venezuela is uninvestable...Significant changes have to be made to those commercial frameworks, the legal system, there has to be durable investment protections, and there needs to be a rewrite of the laws governing oil production in Venezuela”—a factual assessment followed by President Trump declaring yesterday: “I didn’t like Exxon’s response...You know we have so many that want it...I’d probably be inclined to keep Exxon out...They’re playing too cute”.

Also playing “too cute” with President Trump, this report continues, is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who announced yesterday that he is under a criminal investigation and warned: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president”—a warning followed by the news: “Gold hit a fresh record high on Monday, extending a blistering rally as investors piled into havens amid a swirl of geopolitical and policy shocks in recent days”—and the Wall Street Journal most factually observed today: “The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell isn’t ultimately about the Fed’s headquarters, or Powell, or even interest rates...It’s about power...President Trump intends to take control of the central bank, no matter what the law or the courts say”.

The American quasi-government private central bank, Federal Reserve, as this report details, is best known as being a “money arsonist” because it abets massive money fraud, and about which United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, beyond shockingly warned last week: “We are going to hold people accountable...We're going to press this to the full extent possible...American taxpayers, for American families, the GAO, the General Accounting Office, believes that there is somewhere between $300- $600 billion of annual fraud, roughly 10% of government spending, that disappears due to fraud”.

Along with President Trump targeting the Federal Reserve for criminal destruction, this report notes, economic articles appeared last week like “Trump Blindsides Wall Street Allies With Crackdown On Housing Investors”—President Trump then slammed all American banks with an order to cap credit card interest rates at 10%--and it was also revealed today: “Banks and financial services stocks slid Monday after President Donald Trump called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%...Capital One shares dropped 10% in premarket trading...Citigroup lost 4% and JPMorgan Chase shed nearly 3%...Bank of America fell 2.36%, Visa declined 1.94%, and Mastercard was 2 .21% in the red...Financial services names were also affected as American Express fell 4.87%, Wells Fargo lost 2.01% and Morgan Stanley declined 0.98%...The cap would come into force on January 20, though Trump did not provide additional details on how it would work”.

As for the ultimate goal of President Trump, this report concludes, the Tax Policy Center organization assessed: “Think of the federal income tax as a patient with heart disease...But instead of treating the condition, the hospital removes the oxygen the patient needs to breathe, then fires the doctors who could unblock the clogged arteries...The actions of President Trump, combined with early policy initiatives in Congress, threaten to kill the federal income tax...If these efforts continue unabated, the current revenue system could collapse, opening the door to two stated goals of many Trump supporters—deep federal spending cuts and some form of consumption tax”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]


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January 12, 2026, EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition that it is linked to its source at WhatDoesItMean.com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

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January 18, 2026

Trump Proclaims Only He And The United States “Can Play In This Game”
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

An attention riveting new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first notes Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev posted the humorous warning last Monday: “Trump needs to hurry...According to unverified information, a sudden referendum may take place in a few days, in which all 55,000 residents of Greenland can vote for joining Russia...And then that's it!...No new stars on the banner...And Russia will have a new - already the 90th - federal subject”.

Obviously not seeing the humor in Deputy Chairman Medvedev hilariously warning Greenland would soon vote to join Russia, this report notes, President Donald Trump issued the world order overturning proclamation yesterday:
We have subsidized Denmark, and all of the Countries of the European Union, and others, for many years by not charging them Tariffs, or any other forms of remuneration.

Now, after Centuries, it is time for Denmark to give back — World Peace is at stake!
China and Russia want Greenland, and there is not a thing that Denmark can do about it. They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently.

Only the United States of America, under PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP, can play in this game, and very successfully, at that!
Nobody will touch this sacred piece of Land, especially since the National Security of the United States, and the World at large, is at stake.
On top of everything else, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland have journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown.

This is a very dangerous situation for the Safety, Security, and Survival of our Planet. These Countries, who are playing this very dangerous game, have put a level of risk in play that is not tenable or sustainable.

Therefore, it is imperative that, in order to protect Global Peace and Security, strong measures be taken so that this potentially perilous situation end quickly, and without question.

Starting on February 1st, 2026, all of the above mentioned Countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland), will be charged a 10% Tariff on any and all goods sent to the United States of America. On June 1st, 2026, the Tariff will be increased to 25%.

This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.
The United States has been trying to do this transaction for over 150 years. Many Presidents have tried, and for good reason, but Denmark has always refused.

Now, because of The Golden Dome, and Modern Day Weapons Systems, both Offensive and Defensive, the need to ACQUIRE is especially important. Hundreds of Billions of Dollars are currently being spent on Security Programs having to do with “The Dome,” including for the possible protection of Canada, and this very brilliant, but highly complex system can only work at its maximum potential and efficiency, because of angles, metes, and bounds, if this Land is included in it.
The United States of America is immediately open to negotiation with Denmark and/or any of these Countries that have put so much at risk, despite all that we have done for them, including maximum protection, over so many decades.

As protests exploded in Greenland in response to the takeover push made by President Trump yesterday, this report continues, socialist European Union President Ursula von der Leyen defiantly declared: “The EU stands in full solidarity with Denmark and the people of Greenland...Territorial integrity and sovereignty are fundamental principles of international law...They are essential for Europe and for the international community as a whole...Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral...Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty”.

After Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited China last week to position Canada for what he declared was: “The world as it is, not as we wish it”, this report details, he then directly threatened President Trump yesterday: “We are NATO partners with Denmark, and our full-fledged alliance remains in force...Our obligations under Article 5 and Article 2 of the North Atlantic Treaty are unchanged, and we firmly and unconditionally support them”—a threat joined with the news: “A small French military contingent has arrived in Greenland's capital Nuuk as several European states deploy small numbers in a so-called reconnaissance mission...The limited deployment, which also involves Germany, Sweden, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands and the UK, comes as President Donald Trump continues to press his claim to the Arctic island”—and the German government newspaper Der Spiegel warningly revealed today: “Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said he cannot promise that the United States will remain in the bloc..He added that European countries must take Washington seriously when it says it wants to take over Greenland”.

Along with his game move against socialist Europeans to seize Greenland, this report notes, President Trump unveiled the leadership structure of a high-powered committee which will oversee the reconstruction and governance of Gaza, naming himself as its chairman and appointing a controversial roster of diplomats, financiers and political allies, swiftly after which it was starkly revealed: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Saturday that the White House’s unveiling of a key international oversight panel for Gaza was not coordinated with Israel and contradicts its policy, in a rare break with President Donald Trump’s administration that was met with a sharp rebuke from a senior US official...“This is our show, not his show”, the official said...“We managed to do things in Gaza in recent months nobody thought was possible, and we are going to continue moving...If he wants us to deal with Gaza, it will have to be our way...We worked over him...Let him focus on Iran and let us deal with Gaza...We are not going to argue with him...He will do his politics and we will keep moving forward with our plan...He can’t really go against us””.

Following his game moves enraging both the socialist Europeans and Israel, this report concludes, President Trump posted a notice to the American peoples yesterday afternoon: “Everyone is asking about the Autopen?...What was done is totally illegal, and anything signed that way is of “no further force or effect”...The person who “worked” the Autopen had no idea whether or not Biden approved of what he was doing...There was no ORDER in writing, and it was an absolutely illegal act perpetrated by the Radical Left Insurrectionists who illegally ran the Biden Administration...Every one of them should be arrested for what they have done to our Country...They didn’t win the Presidency but, when you think of it, neither did Joe Biden...The whole thing was RIGGED...There must be a price to pay, and it has got to be a BIG ONE! ”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]



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January 18, 2026 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

2025 Has Been Tough But Next Year Will Be Even Worse

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French President Recommends EU Use Anti-Coercion Trade Bazooka Against Trump

January 18, 2026

12:45 pm

11 commentson French President Recommends EU Use Anti-Coercion Trade Bazooka Against Trump

Economics
And Canada stands fully behind NATO articles 5 and 2, in defence of Greenland.


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Europe Weighs Going All-Out

The New York Times reports that After Trump Reignites a Trade War Over Greenland, Europe Weighs Going All-Out

In a single post on Saturday night, President Trump upended months of progress on trade negotiations with an ultimatum that puts Europe on a crash course with the United States, long its closest ally and suddenly one of its biggest threats.

In the Truth Social post, Mr. Trump demanded a deal to buy Greenland, saying that otherwise he would slap tariffs on a group of European nations, first 10 percent in February, then 25 percent in June.

It appeared to leave little room for Europe to maneuver or negotiate in a harsh and combative era of geopolitics. It also left Europe with few options to counter Mr. Trump without repercussions.

European leaders are loath to accept the forced takeover of an autonomous territory that is controlled by Denmark, a member of both NATO and the European Union.
Officials and outside analysts increasingly argue that Europe will need to respond to Mr. Trump with force — namely by hitting back on trade. But doing so could come at a high cost to both the bloc’s economy and its security, since Europe remains heavily reliant on the United States for support through NATO and in Russia’s war with Ukraine.

“We either fight a trade war, or we’re in a real war,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research institute in Brussels.
Within hours of the post, members of the European Parliament announced that they would freeze the ratification of the trade deal that Mr. Trump and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, struck last summer. And members of the European Parliament are openly calling for trade retaliation. Ambassadors from across the 27-nation bloc gathered in Brussels on Sunday for an emergency meeting, diplomats said.

Europe has a trade weapon specifically created to defend against political coercion quickly and forcefully, and as Mr. Trump’s threats sank in, policymakers argued that this is the time to wield it.

The tool — officially called the “anti-coercion instrument,” unofficially called Europe’s trade “bazooka” — could be used to slap limitations on big American technology companies or other service providers that do large amounts of business on the continent. But using it would sharply ratchet up trans-Atlantic tensions.
Mr. Macron will request, on behalf of France, the activation of the anti-coercion trade tool, a senior French official said on Sunday.

Even Keir Starmer, the prime minister of Britain — which, like Norway, is not in the European Union, but was listed among the countries that will be slapped with
tariffs — called Mr. Trump’s tariff move “completely wrong.” Mr. Starmer has carefully cultivated a positive relationship with the White House.

Macron to Seek Use of EU Anti-Coercion Tool
Bloomberg reports Macron to Seek Use of EU Anti-Coercion Tool as Calls to Retaliate Grow
French President Emmanuel Macron will request the activation of the European Union’s anti-coercion instrument amid increasing calls for the region to retaliate against US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on European countries over Greenland.

Macron, who on Saturday branded the threat of tariffs “unacceptable,” was in contact with European counterparts and would request to use the ACI — the bloc’s most powerful retaliatory tool — on behalf of France, according to a person close to the president who requested anonymity to comply with government rules.
EU national ambassadors will meet on Sunday to discuss the bloc’s next steps, another person familiar with the matter said earlier.
Germany’s SPD parliamentary group — part of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s ruling coalition — called for the European Commission to act quickly and come up with “concrete countermeasures” against the US. The German government is considering all responses to Trump’s tariff threat, but so far hasn’t decided on any specific measures, according to a person familiar with the plans.

Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party, the largest political group in the European Parliament, said on Saturday that approval of the EU’s trade deal with the US is no longer possible.
Finland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo warned that the European Union “has the means to respond,” though he said he didn’t want to “see that happen.” Speaking to YLE radio, he said he has requested an extraordinary meeting of the European Council to coordinate and develop a common strategy among European countries and Denmark.

While the EU’s anti-coercion instrument has never been
used, it was designed primarily as a deterrent, and if needed, to respond to deliberate coercive actions from third countries that use trade measures as a means to pressure the policy choices of the EU or its members.

Those measures could include tariffs, new taxes on tech companies or targeted curbs on investments in the EU. They could also involve limiting access to certain parts of the EU market or restricting firms from bidding for public contracts in Europe.

Weapon of Last Resort
Bloomberg comments Why ‘Anti-Coercion’ Tool Is the EU’s Trade Weapon of Last Resort

What is the anti-coercion instrument?
It’s the EU’s strongest tool to retaliate against economic or trade duress by a third country. If the bloc decides that it’s being coerced, the ACI would give it cover to hit back with a range of punishments targeting the offending country’s access to one of the world’s biggest and most lucrative markets in goods and services.

The EU sees the ACI’s true purpose not as retaliation so much as deterrence, as its provisions are so potentially damaging to a trade partner that the mere threat of applying it means countries will think twice before using trade as a diplomatic weapon.

What is coercion in trade?
Trade coercion is the practice of applying trade instruments such as tariffs, anti-dumping measures, quotas and other tools that inflict harm on a trade partner for reasons that aren’t justified under the generally accepted rules of international trade, and which don’t directly address any recognized imbalance or injustice in the trading relationship. The goal instead is to impose economic costs on the target in an arbitrary way as part of a broader diplomatic dispute.
The Bloomberg article was written with a focus on and references to China. The spotlight now is on the US.

Trump has threatened tariffs on eight European countries if they do not agree to let him buy Greenland. That’s coercion.
The stupid part of Trump’s demand is that the matter is between Denmark, Greenland, and the US. The EU has no say in the decision.

Tariffs as a Weapon
Trump is repeatedly using tariffs as a weapon, not as a trade matter.
At a minimum, he did it to Brazil, India, Canada, Mexico, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland.

Might Supreme Court Justices be editing their opinions over this?
I hope so, but doubt it.

Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister

Canada Would Fight the US

Carney: “The future of Greenland is a decision for Greenland and for the Kingdom of Denmark. We are NATO partners with Denmark, and so our full partnership stands. Our obligations under Article 5 and Article 2 stand. We stand fully behind them.”

NATO Treaty
NATO’s Article 5 is the cornerstone of collective defence, stating that an attack on one member is an attack on all, obligating others to assist (including with armed force if necessary). In contrast, NATO’s Article 2 (often cited as Article II in the Status of Forces Agreement or SOFA) focuses on promoting stability and free institutions, while the treaty’s Article 2 (Washington Treaty) emphasizes economic cooperation and peaceful dispute resolution among members.
NATO Members are obliged to protect Greenland from an invasion by the US.
I cheer Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s forceful stand against Trump.

Denmark Cuts Diplomatic Ties With US

Good, why speak with a proven liar?

EU to Halt US Trade Deal Over Trump’s New Greenland Tariff on 8 Countries
Yesterday, I noted the EU to Halt US Trade Deal Over Trump’s New Greenland Tariff on 8 Countries
Trump threatens the EU with more tariffs. The EU has reacted in kind.

Trump Will Take Greenland the ‘Easy Way’ or the ‘Hard Way’ by Force

On January 10, 2026, I noted that Trump would take Greenland the ‘Easy Way’ or the ‘Hard Way’ by Force
Let me put this politely: The brazenness and gall of this arrogant, ignorant ass is stunning.


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