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The Swamp

  • #126,181
  • Jan 8, 2026 8:41am Jan 8, 2026 8:41am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The 4 support did break.. pa is still above the 6h supports 1670 and 1665. Atm when under b/o down mode under 1683x. Later that will drop to 1680. When sustained below 1683x.. A 6h close below 1680 can still be above 1670 and 65 support. But a 6h close below, a high% of the time, is followed by the 12h aligned.. It does look like the 6h support will be tested. If it breaks, or not this time is unknown. Bears don't look weak with pa below 1743 and 1683 (later 6h below 1680). LC is 1689. A 6h close in 4.5 hs under 1680 points bearish,...
1670 6h was broken. 1665 was not with a close below. The 4h is in the 1681 area. So 1665 may become a R also. 6h at 1665
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,182
  • Jan 8, 2026 10:56am Jan 8, 2026 10:56am
Quoting gatorinla
I took some profit 1652. It may bounce, if it does I may look to enter 1680ish {image}
No bounce.. I left an alarm incase.
ADR about 1632
ATM low is 1643, 100 pips from 1743. I did take a long when it first hit, but closed with a little
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,183
  • Jan 8, 2026 11:05am Jan 8, 2026 11:05am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,184
  • Jan 8, 2026 11:11am Jan 8, 2026 11:11am
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All I have points down. at the 100 pip mark it bounces sometimes.
I don't know why. A lot of bots may use 100.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,185
  • Jan 9, 2026 12:30am Jan 9, 2026 12:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1670 6h was broken. 1665 was not with a close below. The 4h is in the 1681 area. So 1665 may become a R also. 6h at 1665
1665/83 area still may have a sell chance. Its looking bearish. It may have problems getting there. The 1643 area is where I thought it may bounce.. It didn't get above 1663. On the bounce so far.
Its testing that lower magenta line. Sustained below is a b/o. It can also get rejected there. 1617 is the 12h trend support next in line. It may be forced back to 1665/66. That's the 6h R
that 100 pip mark is still 1643.. Sometimes they force a bounce. In this case that was not much to 1662
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,186
  • Jan 9, 2026 12:37am Jan 9, 2026 12:37am
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Quoting gatorinla
{image} All I have points down. at the 100 pip mark it bounces sometimes. I don't know why. A lot of bots may use 100.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,187
  • Jan 9, 2026 12:46am Jan 9, 2026 12:46am
If nothing changes, the 6h closed below 1676. The 12h looks like it will too. That to me still indicates bearish. Even so, it may reach for 1665/83. Before making a later in the day push down. The Adr is about 49 pips now. The 12h at 1617.. add 49 pips.. It can allow 1665/66ish, and still reach 1617 within ADR
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,188
  • Jan 9, 2026 1:01am Jan 9, 2026 1:01am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,189
  • Jan 9, 2026 2:15am Jan 9, 2026 2:15am
The last 12h confirms more of the bearish view. It may be unable to reach 1665/83. But if it does, its pointing to down. It may be a classic head fake to lure buyers. Later falling again to a LL probably 1617. The fall may be after LC attracts it closer to 1666. Around/before 9AM EST. That's just speculation. It may be unable to rise to 1666
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,190
  • Jan 9, 2026 4:47am Jan 9, 2026 4:47am
Quoting gatorinla
The last 12h confirms more of the bearish view. It may be unable to reach 1665/83. But if it does, its pointing to down. It may be a classic head fake to lure buyers. Later falling again to a LL probably 1617. The fall may be after LC attracts it closer to 1666. Around/before 9AM EST. That's just speculation. It may be unable to rise to 1666
we have nfp today which may change the scene or as the last straw to push eu further down
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,191
  • Jan 9, 2026 5:33am Jan 9, 2026 5:33am
I bought EU at 1.1640 with the news. STP=1.1600; TP= open.
  • #126,192
  • Edited 6:41am Jan 9, 2026 6:31am | Edited 6:41am
Quoting johncen
{quote} we have nfp today which may change the scene or as the last straw to push eu further down
we got more news in 30 mins.. So far the rise back to 166x was a head fake.
The 12h trend support at 1617.. Today on close is a 12h.
LC is the next 6h close. Atm pa has made a LL. A lower 6h and 12h close.
Pa is in the shadow of 1617 at the current low.
I hope for another run at 1666 to sell on news.
Its bearish to me.. at 1617/06.. it may bounce some.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,193
  • Jan 9, 2026 6:44am Jan 9, 2026 6:44am
yesterday it bounced 1643.. It does that often at 100 pips. If it was to be bullish. It should of risen back to 1743. After 1843. It didn't rise much. Not even 50 pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,194
  • Jan 9, 2026 7:04am Jan 9, 2026 7:04am
usd bullish..eu bearish. but lc may pull it to 1665/66.... It think if it does it will reject hard back down. 1h to go. It don't look bouncy.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,195
  • Jan 9, 2026 7:12am Jan 9, 2026 7:12am
I got nothing bullish yet.. the 12h trend may support 1617 ish. All looks bearish toward 1617..
I will switch to a 5m, since pa is close to 1617 and see if something changes.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,196
  • Jan 9, 2026 7:29am Jan 9, 2026 7:29am
stops should be 1617 now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,197
  • Jan 9, 2026 8:11am Jan 9, 2026 8:11am
You may want to take a little profit. .. maybe a little more at 1665.. LC is over, 1666 is no longer the attractor. But 1665 may have R value on the 6h. A possible short there. 1617 is the 12h trend support. So make of that what you may.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,198
  • Jan 9, 2026 8:43am Jan 9, 2026 8:43am
Pa is likely bearish below 1642/39... Unless its above sustained. If sustained above, and later crossed below. Its likely bearish again. But 1617 can reject it until a 12h close is below 1617. The day trend is 1510. Break the 12h and 1510 looks in the path
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,199
  • Jan 9, 2026 9:15am Jan 9, 2026 9:15am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,200
  • Jan 9, 2026 10:09am Jan 9, 2026 10:09am
If I'm correct about is being bearish PA should not stray to far above 1639/45. An "oh shit" stop above 1666. May suffice. Not in stone yet. But A day close below that blue box, and the 12h after. Greatly improves the odds 1617 will have pressure to break.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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