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The Swamp

  • #126,121
  • Jan 1, 2026 2:16pm Jan 1, 2026 2:16pm
Yes, lipstick sales are generally up, driven by the "lipstick effect" (affordable treats during economic uncertainty) and post-pandemic recovery, with strong growth in hydrating/natural formulas and bold shades, though some forecasts anticipate market shifts with new skincare-focused demands in 2025 and beyond.
Recent Trends & Performance

  1. Post-Pandemic Boom: Sales surged as mask mandates lifted, with significant jumps (e.g., 48% in Q1 2022) as people returned to wearing makeup.
  2. "Lipstick Effect": In uncertain economic times (2024-2025), consumers buy inexpensive luxuries like lipstick for emotional comfort, boosting sales despite overall caution.
  3. Strong Growth Areas: Hydrating lip balms, oils, and glosses (up 21% YoY in 2025) are popular, alongside natural/vegan options and bold colors for self-expression, notes.

Market Outlook

  1. Projected Growth: The global lip product market is expected to grow significantly through 2030, with some forecasts projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7%.
  2. Shifting Preferences: While traditional lipstick sells, there's a rising demand for products with skincare benefits and sustainable packaging.

Key Takeaway
Lipstick sales remain robust, reflecting a mix of economic behavior and evolving consumer desires for self-care and bolder looks, even as the market diversifies into more treatment-focused products.

  1. Lipstick Sales Go Up When the Economy Tanks - Medium

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,122
  • Jan 1, 2026 4:49pm Jan 1, 2026 4:49pm
Have not checked Cot for a long time as govt closed Cot has also stopped updating for a while. But it appears from 16 Dec to 23 Dec big players are adding more shorts again
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,123
  • Jan 1, 2026 11:53pm Jan 1, 2026 11:53pm
I had the close between the quarter 1749 and 1737. I have to scratch my earlier post to change to 1743/44. I read the wrong level earlier
Some possible support mid 1740s..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,124
  • Jan 2, 2026 12:32am Jan 2, 2026 12:32am
Quoting gatorinla
I had the close between the quarter 1749 and 1737. I have to scratch my earlier post to change to 1743/44. I read the wrong level earlier Some possible support mid 1740s.. {image}
I have no buy signal yet.
The 6h pointed bullish earlier. The 12h most often follows.
I think sustained back above 1747 can be a run.
The 174x may become support longer term. For several hundred pips up.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,125
  • Jan 2, 2026 12:37am Jan 2, 2026 12:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I have no buy signal yet. The 6h pointed bullish earlier. The 12h most often follows. I think sustained back above 1747 can be a run. The 174x may become support longer term. {image}
yea outlook remain pretty bullish but we may remain in holiday mode so could continue to range for sometime. Weak dollars remain to be the main theme as long as Trump is in the office.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,126
  • Jan 2, 2026 4:26am Jan 2, 2026 4:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I have no buy signal yet. The 6h pointed bullish earlier. The 12h most often follows. I think sustained back above 1747 can be a run. The 174x may become support longer term. For several hundred pips up. {image}
the 12h did not follow, ..1743 ish did not hold support. A passible short area now. Support turns to R
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,127
  • Jan 2, 2026 5:11am Jan 2, 2026 5:11am
ADR has shrunk to 50 pips. today is at 52 already. It may find find the attraction to 1743. Its on the bear side of a b/o. Plus below 1743. I will wait to see if it comes back and short if it gives a signal.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,128
  • Jan 2, 2026 10:00am Jan 2, 2026 10:00am
Quoting gatorinla
ADR has shrunk to 50 pips. today is at 52 already. It may find find the attraction to 1743. Its on the bear side of a b/o. Plus below 1743. I will wait to see if it comes back and short if it gives a signal.
The long worked.. The short didn't.. On the side bb Monday.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,129
  • Jan 3, 2026 7:09am Jan 3, 2026 7:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The pressure has to be great. the closer we get to Friday, the greater the pressure to change the news cycle. Wag the dog. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gej5ezyypo
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...l-hnk-01-03-26
"Wag the Dog" as the files continue to be released.
Inserted Video

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...l-hnk-01-03-26
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,130
  • Jan 4, 2026 7:24pm Jan 4, 2026 7:24pm
If the eu comes back to 1743/49... monitor it.. Its likely the bear/bull crossroads. I think is pointing bearish. It may not make it back.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,131
  • Jan 4, 2026 8:49pm Jan 4, 2026 8:49pm
“Yesterday, December 7, 1941—a date which will live in infamy—the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by Japan's naval and air forces."



"Yesterday, January 3, 2026—a date which will live in infamy—the United States of America suddenly and deliberately attacked Venezuela naval, air forces and army."
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,132
  • Jan 4, 2026 8:55pm Jan 4, 2026 8:55pm
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If it comes back..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,133
  • Jan 4, 2026 9:46pm Jan 4, 2026 9:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
“Yesterday, December 7, 1941—a date which will live in infamy—the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by Japan's naval and air forces." "Yesterday, January 3, 2026—a date which will live in infamy—the United States of America suddenly and deliberately attacked Venezuela naval, air forces and army."
Oil is the common denominator for both attacks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,134
  • Jan 4, 2026 10:18pm Jan 4, 2026 10:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
{image} If it comes back..
1743 looks a bit far from now but it would be nice to revisit.

normal days it should revisit but if market sentiment sours it could continue to drop
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,135
  • Jan 5, 2026 6:43am Jan 5, 2026 6:43am
Quoting johncen
{quote} 1743 looks a bit far from now but it would be nice to revisit. normal days it should revisit but if market sentiment sours it could continue to drop
Yeah to me it could be a longer term high area. I shorted there last week, but was stopped out. I thought it had potential, and still do as a place to resist. It went a little higher. I think below it pa is bearish. I think its bearish now. I had 1737 and 1749 as a crossroad. The year was between the 2. If pa gets established above 1743. It could change my current bearish outlook. 1714ish has some R today
ADR is 1670.. Some places to break and hold below 1680 4h.. 1670 and 1662 6h
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,136
  • Jan 5, 2026 6:54am Jan 5, 2026 6:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah to me it could be a longer term high area. I shorted there last week, but was stopped out. I thought it had potential, and still do as a place to resist. It went a little higher. I think below it pa is bearish. I think its bearish now. I had 1737 and 1749 as a crossroad. The year was between the 2. If pa gets established above 1743. It could change my current bearish outlook. 1714ish has some R today ADR is 1670.. Some places to break and hold below 1680 4h.. 1670 and 1662 6h {image}
A 12h close below 1749, can open the day at 1510 challenged. Since its below 1743, that has a shot to break these.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,137
  • Jan 5, 2026 7:13am Jan 5, 2026 7:13am
Quoting Fadhl
Good day! I think EU is at Value Area (VA) to sell towards 1.1650. {image}
Price behaved as expected. Let see the reaction at VA to go long.
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  • #126,138
  • Jan 5, 2026 8:46am Jan 5, 2026 8:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah to me it could be a longer term high area. I shorted there last week, but was stopped out. I thought it had potential, and still do as a place to resist. It went a little higher. I think below it pa is bearish. I think its bearish now. I had 1737 and 1749 as a crossroad. The year was between the 2. If pa gets established above 1743. It could change my current bearish outlook. 1714ish has some R today ADR is 1670.. Some places to break and hold below 1680 4h.. 1670 and 1662 6h {image}
Bears were able to get that 4h close last hour. The LC attraction is likely too far. But it still may able to get back above 1680. 1680 may resist too. If it resists, those 6h supports may come in play. The next 6h close is in 1h 15m.
1680 is being tested now from below
The 6h supports have held on testing so far. Plus ADR was completed.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,139
  • Jan 5, 2026 10:07am Jan 5, 2026 10:07am
1.1708.6 is a ADR in pips since low (50 pips). - 1.1714 was a day b/o level. 1714 may resist. Its likely bearish at/below 1714 (day wise). Neutral above 1714 day wise.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,140
  • Jan 5, 2026 10:45am Jan 5, 2026 10:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah to me it could be a longer term high area. I shorted there last week, but was stopped out. I thought it had potential, and still do as a place to resist. It went a little higher. I think below it pa is bearish. I think its bearish now. I had 1737 and 1749 as a crossroad. The year was between the 2. If pa gets established above 1743. It could change my current bearish outlook. 1714ish has some R today ADR is 1670.. Some places to break and hold below 1680 4h.. 1670 and 1662 6h {image}
6h supports held. 1714 is being tested.. The South side sustained, is day wise bearish to me. Being under 1743 is a longer term bear side.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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