Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Will Venezuela Crisis Trigger Next Gold Rally? | Forex Factory

  • Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Will Venezuela Crisis Trigger Next Gold Rally?

    From fxempire.com

    Spot Gold (XAUUSD) settled sharply lower last week. The sell-off wasn’t the result of a major shift in the fundamentals, but rather a dramatic change in futures margins, which triggered a cascade of sell orders. Despite the steep loss, the uptrend remained intact, but the move left investors looking for value areas for their next buys. Raising the margin makes trading more expensive, so investors have to be more selective about their entry prices. For months, traders chased the market higher by taking out offers. Now I think they are going to be more selective until upside momentum returns to the market.

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Jade Gate
Jan 5, 2026 4:33am
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}Noza, what could happen? "The ratio of physical gold to paper/futures contracts is extremely high, with estimates ranging from 100:1 to over 200:1, meaning significantly more gold futures and paper claims exist than actual, deliverable gold, creating leverage and speculative potential. While a typical COMEX futures contract is for 100 ounces of gold, the total market value of paper gold vastly exceeds physical supply, though most contracts settle in cash, not physical delivery...."
Gold and silver Bloomberg Com Index re-balancing due this week. Won't be too surprised to see market selling ahead of Jan 8 to maximise ROI at current prices.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/453647...lling-pressure

However, the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodities Index, which has roughly $109B in funds tracking it as a benchmark for a basket of commodities, could dampen the bullion’s recent upheaval, according to J.P. Morgan.

The reweighting exercise scheduled from Jan. 8 to Jan. 14 could cause the selling of about $3.8B and $4.7B worth of silver and gold, respectively, Barron’s reported, citing a Dec. 11 note from JPM analysts led by Gregory Shearer.

With silver representing 9% of the Index compared to its 2026 target weighting of just below 4%, the five-day roll period is expected to cause the selling of more than $5B worth of silver holdings, Bloomberg reported, quoting Daniel Ghali, a senior commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Meanwhile, gold, which makes up the index’s largest weighting at 20%, could witness the selling of approximately $6B worth of futures during the rebalancing period, which starts on Thursday.

“We expect a massive 13% of aggregate open interest in Comex silver markets will be sold over the coming two weeks, to result in a dramatic repricing lower,” Ghali said, referring to CME Group’s (CME) metals exchange.
Reply
The Fool
Jan 5, 2026 9:18am
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Quoting Jade Gate
{quote} “We expect a massive 13% of aggregate open interest in Comex silver markets will be sold over the coming two weeks, to result in a dramatic repricing lower,” Ghali said, referring to CME Group’s (CME) metals exchange.....
helpful and timely, thanks JG
The Fool
Jan 4, 2026 11:30pm
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Quoting noza
Looks like it will speed up gold rally this year and Broker will have big problems paying huge sum amount to traders
Noza, what could happen?

"The ratio of physical gold to paper/futures contracts is extremely high, with estimates ranging from 100:1 to over 200:1, meaning significantly more gold futures and paper claims exist than actual, deliverable gold, creating leverage and speculative potential. While a typical COMEX futures contract is for 100 ounces of gold, the total market value of paper gold vastly exceeds physical supply, though most contracts settle in cash, not physical delivery...."
GcNaif
Jan 4, 2026 5:07pm
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Thanks
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The Fool
Jan 4, 2026 5:27pm
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/GC gapped up $40+. /SI up a little, /ES up a little. /CL down a hair. Kind of a snoozer.
Bakker
Jan 4, 2026 6:54pm
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Gold will fly this week, first hit at 4500 and next one at 5000. Left a huge gap this morning.
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noza
Jan 4, 2026 9:28pm
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Looks like it will speed up gold rally this year and Broker will have big problems paying huge sum amount to traders
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BillyIdol
Jan 4, 2026 5:29pm
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More israel strikes on iran which coming soon.
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BaliBoyz80
Jan 5, 2026 2:52am
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Venezuela case is about oil. Maybe its time for oil rally and gold down.
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yudhasby
Jan 4, 2026 6:19pm
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ATH January
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Trader#14EF
Jan 4, 2026 6:24pm
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Idk.. One side of me wants to put everything i have on LONG on XAU.. but then i feel like i would regret that decision later.. first time that i couldn't know the direction of the XAU will be going..
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Ehbeefx
Jan 4, 2026 6:10pm
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Thanks for supporting
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Trader#14EF
Jan 4, 2026 7:07pm
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Yeah nvm im all in lets gooooo
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Bhaskar2496
Jan 4, 2026 9:11pm
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I think gold rally is because of FED's QE.
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Trader#FF63
Jan 5, 2026 1:55am
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Quoting Trader#C6DC
we might like sell this week
why are u think abt this,because I just got liquidated last mouth, so im afraid to trade,i really wanna know some views and knowledge as well
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Trader#C6DC
Jan 4, 2026 5:19pm
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we might like sell this week
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Trader#A957
Jan 4, 2026 5:25pm
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4500+
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Trader#8CA7
Jan 4, 2026 5:34pm
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Gold sell
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Trader#705A
Jan 4, 2026 7:15pm
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Denmark is hoarding Greenland and should get ready for some action.
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Trader#9FC4
Jan 4, 2026 7:35pm
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This will be a easy 20K in long
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Trader#73BF
Jan 4, 2026 8:16pm
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rip
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Trader#0412
Jan 4, 2026 10:27pm
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it is sell time
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Trader#5C91
Jan 5, 2026 3:00am
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TRUMP Coin will soon replace gold, MELANIA - silver.
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