Nasdaq-Simple Intraday Strategy

Long lmt at 25410(1) and 25404(2)
-both cancelled

But got a small short at 25500 (ik risky so close to NY)
-sl at BE
-closed at 25378 with +122points

sell lmt at 25424 (1) and 25438 (2)
cancelled both

In a short at 25497 sl alr at BE
stopped, wow! What an opening

Pretty crazy indeed.

Catched a nice retrace on US30 at the lows. I regret missing the second low, there's a lot going on right now...ah well.

Now long on NAS at 25332.

NQ Yearly Outlook: SELL!
Happy New-Year!
FA Analysis:
1-US and World economy are going to be under recession with higher Inflation and higher Unemployment. This recession will force CBs to print more free moneys with QEs. The recession is bad for equities but the free money is good.
2- AI: As the diffuse and use of AI is still behind, the billion investments with no revenues will be considered a bubble wave. many AI firms will go into bankruptcy and only few, very few will be part of AI 2.0. This factor is the main driver for the Sell Yearly Outlook.
3- Risk: As USA feels the loss of its power vis-a-vis China and BRICKS, the diplomacy and World Organizations (i.e., UN, WB, IMF...) are/will be in the back seat and arms/wars will be in the driver seat. Many potential wars are in play: South America (Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico, Cuba), Middle East (Iran, Palestine, Yemen), South East Asia...
4- Dollar: Dollar is expected to loose its sunshine as a reserve and main currency worldwide for two reasons: USA is intentionally aiming to devaluate the US Dollar; and BRICKS members will use more and more their national currencies in trade.

=) So, most of the fundamental factors are converging towards a red year in equities and stocks.
TA Analysis:
Yearly TF:
- Strong bullish yearly candle.
- From strictly TA perspective, we should see a continuation up.
Quarterly TF:

- Bullish Quarterly Candle with a large wick from the top which it signals some exhaustion.
- Price is close to the top of TL which provides resistance from going further up.
- The two blue lines are the VA of a meaningful retrace.
Monthly TF:

- The last two months closed with red candles but both are irrelevant as they were inside the green candle.
- Price requires the break of the green candle for a clear and decisive direction.
- The break and close below the lower TL will provide an early signal for Sell.
(Note: The Fib levels provide key levels for retracements.)
Weekly TF:

- Bearish Weekly close. A continuation down is expected. A close below the lower TL will validate the direction.
- However, the TL is also providing a support to go up and complete the touch of the upper TL.

In conclusion: Based of FA and TA, NQ outlook is SELL.
Note, the sell should be done through 5 waves; each wave will have: An Initial Wave (very slow wave), a Retrace wave and an Impulsive wave (very fast wave).
This outlook is just to provide some guidance. Do your own analysis to make your own decision!
GL Everyone!

Plan for this week!
I see two scenarios.

Good day!
Scenario 2 seems in play.

Bearish OR!
We need a breakout and retest to either direction. My bias is with Buy.

Short lmt at 25493
cancelled

Shorted at 25448
stp at BE
closed with +14points

Another short at 25426
closed with -10points

Entered short at 25406
closing at BE
closed

And buy lmt at 25400
instant stopp

Good day!
Same plan as yesterday...
Price broke up the OR. Looking for a retest and then completion of the final retrace up prior to the real direction down.
(Swing traders can open positions from the top and keep it until the end of 2026).

Long lmt at 25492
entered
stopped

Hi idk who is trading Smart Money Concepts but here my Analysis.
I got out BE.

Fadhl, huge credits to you (and other contributors). The call before Christmas to reach the target of 24.600 was amazing.

From your yearly update and today’s post it seems like the 26.600 is cancelled and that 2026 will be a very bad year.

Do you believe this will happen for crypto and other stock indices as well (Dax, S&P500 etc, shipping) or do you think it will be mostly isolated to Nasdaq? For a long investor it seems like one should sell all today and buy late in 2026. Do you agree or am I misunderstanding your post?

And if the stock market is expected to go down, what should an investor invest in considering GOLD has already been going up a lot?

Very grateful for your analysis. Highly appreciated

Good day!
NQ is almost around the top.
We've a bullish flag.
US data is coming. I expect bad data to confirm the slowing down of the economy.
I'm not buying or selling right now. Price might consolidate around this area for few days to grab liquidity and momentum.
The sell wave will be the initial wave; so it will be very slow.

Indeed, I don't think we will see 26600.
All US Indices are correlated and to lesser extent the world indices. In my view, it will be red year for all indices and stocks, particularly TECH and AI stocks.
Also, the race to devaluate currency will make cash useless. But dollar will be the main driver in this devaluation. Hence I see EUR and YEN will go up. For example, EURUSD might reach 1.25 by end of year.
For investors, Gold is very high but it will continue up. I see Real States as alternative in addition to Silver and Gold. Also "war" stocks might rise.
This is just my view. GL!