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Make More Money - Eliminate DRAMA 11 replies

Just posting my trades, everyone is welcome but no drama 2 replies

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Gold with No Drama

  • #24,021
  • Dec 29, 2025 11:46am Dec 29, 2025 11:46am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} what the heck? That's not how Futures markets work at all.
brro it is... i am using future price to analyse spot price in which is it a good buy or sell,,, search contago and backwardation
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #24,022
  • Dec 29, 2025 11:49am Dec 29, 2025 11:49am
Quoting bdsilvano
{quote} brro it is... i am using future price to analyse spot price in which is it a good buy or sell,,, search contago and backwardation
6E always > spot EU
GU ~= 6B
GC is always > XAU.
They fluctuate simultaneously, it's not about signals...
Air force
  • #24,023
  • Dec 29, 2025 11:50am Dec 29, 2025 11:50am
Quoting bdsilvano
{quote} brro it is... i am using future price to analyse spot price in which is it a good buy or sell,,, search contago and backwardation

Contango and backwardation describe the shape of a commodity's futures curve: Contango (normal) is when future contract prices are higher than the current (spot) price, reflecting storage costs/expectations of price rises, while Backwardation (inverted) is when future prices are lower than the spot price, often due to immediate high demand, shortages, or expectations of falling prices, both crucial for investors in futures-based ETFs.
Contango (Normal Market)

  1. Definition: Futures prices for later delivery dates are progressively higher than the spot price.
  2. Futures Curve: Upward-sloping.
  3. Causes: Storage, insurance, and financing costs (carrying costs) for holding the physical commodity, or general market expectation that prices will rise.
  4. Impact on ETFs: Can be negative for ETFs rolling contracts, as they sell cheaper front-month contracts and buy more expensive later-month contracts, creating a loss.

Backwardation (Inverted Market)

  1. Definition: Futures prices for later delivery dates are progressively lower than the spot price.
  2. Futures Curve: Downward-sloping (inverted).
  3. Causes: High immediate demand, supply disruptions (like natural disasters), or expectations of future price drops.
  4. Impact on ETFs: Can benefit ETFs that roll contracts, as they sell higher-priced front-month contracts and buy cheaper later-month ones, generating a gain.

Key Takeaway

  1. Contango: Spot < Futures (Upward Curve)
  2. Backwardation: Spot > Futures (Downward Curve)
  3. These market structures reflect supply/demand dynamics and expectations, with backwardation signaling immediate tightness and contango suggesting ample supply or future price appreciation.

There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #24,024
  • Dec 29, 2025 11:51am Dec 29, 2025 11:51am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} 6E always > spot EU GU ~= 6B GC is always > XAU. They fluctuate simultaneously, it's not about signals...
it is broo. the signal for me is the price...
actually you can use the future price and compare it to spot prices.. ig, it can tell you is the current price cheap? or expensive, is it good entry or not. many think future is just for physical delivery etc. but actually not... its also affecting the spotprice in which we are trading.
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #24,025
  • Dec 29, 2025 11:54am Dec 29, 2025 11:54am
no more selling gold
  • #24,026
  • Dec 29, 2025 11:54am Dec 29, 2025 11:54am
Quoting bdsilvano
{quote} check cme... https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals.html#products for your reference future > spot = you are looking for a sell signal Future < spot = your are looking for Buy Future = spot means you found support or resistance... this is for your info..
Thanks that’s actually very helpful. I love learning new things in the trading world, makes me feel like a kid excited to use new indicators & tools. I literally discovered pivot point indicators last week and it boasted my profits so fun! Even when I get losses, I don’t feel blind anymore like when I relied heavily on just fundamentals & news releases. Now, I feel more technical when trading
  • #24,027
  • Dec 29, 2025 11:55am Dec 29, 2025 11:55am
Quoting SibiSh
{quote} But bro 4300–10 is strong support and in my opinion it wont break tonight if yes then 4280-85 for tonight.
yup but it has only had one attempt to break below 4310 so far maybe the next one is the knockout ?
Insane in the Brain..
  • #24,028
  • Dec 29, 2025 11:55am Dec 29, 2025 11:55am
Quoting bdsilvano
{quote} it is broo. the signal for me is the price...
I'm not your bro.
According to your logic - gold is always in a sell mode
Air force
  • #24,029
  • Dec 29, 2025 11:58am Dec 29, 2025 11:58am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} I'm not your bro. According to your logic - gold is always in a sell mode
sorry, you will see later it will gone lower once the seller are done on there thing. thats how will i know when to enter at exact times for my order.
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #24,030
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:02pm Dec 29, 2025 12:02pm
Quoting KJW001
{quote} Yeah but some banks also predicted $4500 by end of 2025. Don’t forget a lot of the predictions you mentioned were pre-tariffs & all the mayhem that happened in 2025
I mentioned only us banks as theyre the most active when trading. (London/New York session) and most banks did a Q4 reassessment
  • #24,031
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:04pm Dec 29, 2025 12:04pm
Quoting bdsilvano
{quote} sorry, you will see later it will gone lower once the seller are done on there thing. thats how will i know when to enter at exact times for my order.
yes right now the future is expensive than spot, so ie thats why we are on sell,,, once there is nothing to sell anymore, so future will become cheap hense it will go to backwardation in which Ill buy
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #24,032
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:05pm Dec 29, 2025 12:05pm
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} yup but it has only had one attempt to break below 4310 so far maybe the next one is the knockout ?
hahahaha might be but it will take time imo
Patience
  • #24,033
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:06pm Dec 29, 2025 12:06pm
Quoting bdsilvano
{quote} it is broo. the signal for me is the price... actually you can use the future price and compare it to spot prices.. ig, it can tell you is the current price cheap? or expensive, is it good entry or not. many think future is just for physical delivery etc. but actually not... its also affecting the spotprice in which we are trading.
With the silver trade you are missing a big part, the Shanghai exchange price of silver compared to the Western exchanges.

Then you have to ask where is the actual physical silver kept?
  • #24,034
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:08pm Dec 29, 2025 12:08pm
Quoting SibiSh
{quote} hahahaha might be but it will take time imo
I want to see it during Asian most likely
  • #24,035
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:11pm Dec 29, 2025 12:11pm
Quoting MoneyPrinte
{quote} Whatever level you choose, its essentially the same. The real difference isnt the level itself, but what price is offering at that level. Idont know with other fellow perspectives but for me, the weapon.. is understand,ing whether price agrees to continue or refusing {image}
OMG..5 vs 1..todays is the great battle of fear and greedy
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  • #24,036
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:13pm Dec 29, 2025 12:13pm
Quoting AshleyFX
{quote} I want to see it during Asian most likely
Asian session will give a clearer picture most likely
Patience
  • #24,037
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:16pm Dec 29, 2025 12:16pm
Quoting el_duende
{quote} With the silver trade you are missing a big part, the Shanghai exchange price of silver compared to the Western exchanges. Then you have to ask where is the actual physical silver kept?
ive seen shanghai quoted hegher price today around 85, then drop it means all silver rally we have they made, has been fulfilled, today they close around 79, so i know from the spot price we will head on 79
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
  • #24,038
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:17pm Dec 29, 2025 12:17pm
buying restarted, hopefully could start flying back tomorrow

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LUCKY golden trades, LUCKY gold investor trading style
  • #24,039
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:25pm Dec 29, 2025 12:25pm
Quoting bdsilvano
{quote} yes right now the future is expensive than spot, so ie thats why we are on sell,,, once there is nothing to sell anymore, so future will become cheap hense it will go to backwardation in which Ill buy
Just like 99.9% of the time.
GC minus XAUUSD:OANDA
Dips below 0.0 are contract switches.
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Air force
  • #24,040
  • Dec 29, 2025 12:28pm Dec 29, 2025 12:28pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Just like 99.9% of the time. GC minus XAUUSD:OANDA Dips below 0.0 are contract switches. {image} {image}
i dont know how to look at your chart, I am trained only to look at numbers and fast compare it to spot..
There is Time for Bull, and Time for Bear. and so be the Wolf.
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