The 50 % rule pure price action

Thank you very much, ThaoAnh!

With Hull Moving Average:

Thank you very much for sharing your strategy.

I uploaded a pinescript that keeps track of statistics for this system but i deleted it because it didnt do the right thing. below is the updated code and a pic showing results for 3000 candles lookback on Eurusd daily candles. the look back candles and R:R is userdefined. So you can test different lookback amount and different R:R on any instrument any timeframe.

note: i changed the code and now it shows %of losess vs % of wins as well on the table

code:

//@version=5
indicator("Trade Stats – Clean Visuals (With %)", overlay=true)

// ───── Inputs ─────
rr = input.float(1.0, "Risk Reward", step=0.1)
lookback = input.int(300, "Lookback Candles", minval=50)
lineLen = input.int(3, "SL / TP Line Length", minval=1)

// ───── Stats ─────
var int longWins = 0
var int longLoss = 0
var int shortWins = 0
var int shortLoss = 0

// ───── Trade State ─────
var bool longActive = false
var bool shortActive = false
var int longBar = 0
var int shortBar = 0

var float longEntry = na
var float longSL = na
var float longTP = na

var float shortEntry = na
var float shortSL = na
var float shortTP = na

// ───── Candle 1 Data ─────
c1High = high[1]
c1Low = low[1]
c1Mid = (c1High + c1Low) / 2

// ───── Lookback Filter ─────
inLookback = bar_index >= (last_bar_index - lookback)

// ───── Entry Signals ─────
longSignal = close[1] < open[1] and close > open and close > c1Mid and close < c1High and not longActive
shortSignal = close[1] > open[1] and close < open and close < c1Mid and close > c1Low and not shortActive

// ───── Plot Entry Arrows ─────
plotshape(longSignal, title="Long Entry", style=shape.arrowup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.blue, size=size.small)
plotshape(shortSignal, title="Short Entry", style=shape.arrowdown, location=location.abovebar, color=color.orange, size=size.small)

// ───── Execute Long Entry ─────
if longSignal
longActive := true
longEntry := close
longSL := low
longTP := longEntry + (longEntry - longSL) * rr
longBar := bar_index

line.new(bar_index, longSL, bar_index + lineLen, longSL, color=color.red, width=2)
line.new(bar_index, longTP, bar_index + lineLen, longTP, color=color.green, width=2)

// ───── Execute Short Entry ─────
if shortSignal
shortActive := true
shortEntry := close
shortSL := high
shortTP := shortEntry - (shortSL - shortEntry) * rr
shortBar := bar_index

line.new(bar_index, shortSL, bar_index + lineLen, shortSL, color=color.red, width=2)
line.new(bar_index, shortTP, bar_index + lineLen, shortTP, color=color.green, width=2)

// ───── Long Management ─────
if longActive and bar_index > longBar
if high >= longTP
if inLookback
longWins += 1
longActive := false
else if low <= longSL
if inLookback
longLoss += 1
longActive := false

// ───── Short Management ─────
if shortActive and bar_index > shortBar
if low <= shortTP
if inLookback
shortWins += 1
shortActive := false
else if high >= shortSL
if inLookback
shortLoss += 1
shortActive := false

// ───── Percentage Calculations ─────
longTotal = longWins + longLoss
shortTotal = shortWins + shortLoss

longWinPct = longTotal > 0 ? (longWins / longTotal) * 100 : 0
longLossPct = longTotal > 0 ? (longLoss / longTotal) * 100 : 0

shortWinPct = shortTotal > 0 ? (shortWins / shortTotal) * 100 : 0
shortLossPct = shortTotal > 0 ? (shortLoss / shortTotal) * 100 : 0

// ───── Stats Table ─────
var table t = table.new(position.top_right, 4, 5, border_width=1)

// Headers
table.cell(t, 0, 0, "Type", bgcolor=color.gray)
table.cell(t, 1, 0, "Count", bgcolor=color.gray)
table.cell(t, 2, 0, "Win %", bgcolor=color.gray)
table.cell(t, 3, 0, "Loss %", bgcolor=color.gray)

// Long
table.cell(t, 0, 1, "Long Wins")
table.cell(t, 1, 1, str.tostring(longWins))
table.cell(t, 2, 1, str.tostring(longWinPct, "#.##") + "%")
table.cell(t, 3, 1, str.tostring(longLossPct, "#.##") + "%")

table.cell(t, 0, 2, "Long Losses")
table.cell(t, 1, 2, str.tostring(longLoss))
table.cell(t, 2, 2, "")
table.cell(t, 3, 2, "")

// Short
table.cell(t, 0, 3, "Short Wins")
table.cell(t, 1, 3, str.tostring(shortWins))
table.cell(t, 2, 3, str.tostring(shortWinPct, "#.##") + "%")
table.cell(t, 3, 3, str.tostring(shortLossPct, "#.##") + "%")

table.cell(t, 0, 4, "Short Losses")
table.cell(t, 1, 4, str.tostring(shortLoss))
table.cell(t, 2, 4, "")
table.cell(t, 3, 4, "")

I made the statiscs script so that you can see if this system has any edge. Upon finding edge on whichever combination of RR ,time frame any instrument, you can add more filters to make it better.
here is the latest version

here is Eurcad 4hr with 3000 candles and 300 candles. 300 candles more recent action shows even higher win rate for long trades only.

MTF setting

Friday Volumes are coming!

M5