The Swamp

Quoting gatorinla

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I closed the eu too..it stalled.. I may try again 1737/41

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Quoting gatorinla

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{quote} I closed UJ.. If it continues to 156.. It could be a buy chance.. Use your own analysis 157.46 may resist It stalled so I bailed {image}

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Quoting gatorinla

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uj 156.02 area is worth a peek at. I closed the short earlier when it stalled {quote} {image}

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Quoting gatorinla

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I was skeptical of making a new high this year. 1.2007 or 1.2083. Still fit the mold. If pa makes it there, it still has time to close below 1737 this year. It has time to do both. Time is getting short. {image}

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Quoting gatorinla

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Merry Christmas. I doubt its worth trading today. The 12h favors up as long as sustained above 1797. It took this back to close the 12h, that looks bullish. The retrace below may be shallow. {image}

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Quoting gatorinla

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I think if this hour closes above 1777, it leans bullish. Below 1776 bearish. The last 6h was below. {image}

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Quoting gatorinla

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{quote} Bear side. we mat see 1737.9 or 1749 tested. {image}

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Quoting gatorinla

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{quote} These above numbers are above 1737x and 1749.. The above structure is on the bullish side of 1737.x if that makes sense. The year close side may determine the 2026 early leaning direction. That is a larger lean. They may be supportive {image}

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Quoting gatorinla

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{quote} At the same time supportive, can turn to Resistance on a year close below 1737x.. I prefer the long bias. Because the 6mth. quarter pointed that way. Those will end in a few days.

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Quoting gatorinla

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{quote} The bulls don't need to make an effort to rise. All the bulls need to do is maintain the foothold above 1737 and 49 to close the year. If not, the bears should step in. In that case the high could be in this week.

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Quoting gatorinla

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{quote} Its being bought back above the magenta again.. Bulls have the control.. In a "Oh Shit" scenario for bulls. The bears would drop below 1737 hard and sustained. I side with bulls without the drop below 1737. But one has to have a bail plan. If the bears would come. Back below 1606 to close the year seems decisive. If the bears would come.. That's a big FU to bulls. Its bullish to me. I have 1737/49 as supports for closes. But since the smaller bears are showing some balls.. It has to be at least planned for. This time of the year is the larger...

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Quoting gatorinla

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{quote} The 6h just closed below 1775 and 76. Those may be R. The 12h not always but more often follows this 6h close. That usually means its going to be a down day. The problem being 1737 and 49 are not bullshit supports. They may be tested today (Tuesday) according to this current 6h close. 1775/76 has R value

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Quoting gatorinla

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{image} I don't know if it will go to 1768+ this hour to close the 6h. Its not looking like it.

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Quoting gatorinla

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I have to buy, if I get a buy signal. ATM low 1732. {image}

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Quoting gatorinla

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{quote} Florida is showing cracks like it did in 2007. Florida may be in trouble with high insurance costs, higher taxes, higher HOA fees. The American Dream in Florida looks to be slipping away. Some of it is caused by global warming, like it or not (yeah "global warming is not real", I heard that dumb shit before, and I heard the new dumbshit "man didn't cause it". tell the insurances actuaries this dumbshit), which forces your insurance costs higher. Insurance companies are in business to make money. In some places, insurance has increased in the last decade by 400%. That, along with the property tax increases and the HOA fees, is crushing people. The higher insurance costs are not only reflected in more powerful storms hitting Florida, but also in the removal or deportation of a lot of construction labor. So now when you get labor, it costs more. Inflation has also caused building materials to rise. And the recent storms have also caused tougher building standards. All of that together has put people who bought houses in the last two or three years on the edge of losing their homes. They may now owe more than the home is actually worth, because property values normally will depreciate. This will snowball as more and more people become underwater. When the property you paid, say, $400,000 for is now worth $370,000, on a modest middle-class income that’s a higher percentage of your monthly wages going toward living expenses and housing. Add in the inflation on food and everything else—that puts people underwater and more likely to lose their home or simply walk away from the money pit. The removed labor from the state—either voluntary or told to leave—also leaves empty spaces that are not rented. In other words, less housing is needed. Pretty much the same signs that started around 2007, last time, before the 2008 housing crisis. Florida is one of those states that may see a reduction in housing values. Now once these people turn in their keys or lose their homes because they’re unable to pay the notes, these houses all go to banks. The bank keeps a book on these houses, and the banks don’t sell them until after a long legal process of taking the house back, etc., which then allows them to put them back on the market. Usually, even then, the banks hold these houses for years so they don’t flood the market and reduce prices even further. Meanwhile, these houses sit empty. They’re boarded up, and they become vandalized. The banks have to pay to get the grass cut, pay taxes, HOA fees, and so forth. In other words, it puts a great burden on these banks, and many of them in a saturated local market tend to become insolvent. At some point, another bank will come in and buy all these houses up from many local banks, and it will be sitting with a large portfolio of hundreds or thousands of houses, or tens of thousands of houses. Meanwhile, these houses are not lived in, and they’re sitting next door to the guy who did everything right, cuts his grass, pays on time. The house the bank owns next door is worth half or less. This upstanding guy then decides to turn his keys in when he can buy the house next door for half the price. Anyway, I think you’ll see something like this in the next few months if it accelerates. It would take years to unwind all of this. Meanwhile, more hurricanes will hit, insurance premiums will be higher, and it’s not a good-looking picture. Have a good weekend. If you think I’m full of shit, do what I did in 2008 on my vacation. I was in Fort Lauderdale. I walked the beach at night and looked at the condominiums and noticed most of them had less than 10 percent of the lights on in the summer, the weekend before the 4th of July. A week or two later, the markets crashed. If you live in Fort Lauderdale or any beach town, this is not the prime time for that, but if you go walk the beach and you see very few lights on early after dark, beware of what’s coming in the upcoming months. If it takes a year, I’m okay with that too—but it is coming to Florida. Texas, California, Nevada, and Arizona have some cracks too. I didn't include all Gulf, or East coast states.

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