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The White Whale

  • #121
  • Dec 5, 2025 7:25am Dec 5, 2025 7:25am
closed the Dec 5 flys for $30. NDX sitting dead on the guts.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #122
  • Edited 11:56pm Dec 5, 2025 6:20pm | Edited 11:56pm
For next week

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #123
  • Dec 6, 2025 8:55am Dec 6, 2025 8:55am
I will have to try one of these no(low)-cost hi-lo's in NDX. Ideally can get in the bwf with enough credit to pay for protective downstream vert. The real prize is the expiry day run up of p/l to the theoretical maximum. So, in the setup shown, risking $80 to make >$8,000. The bwf with a 100/200 wing spread risks call it $20k bp per unit.
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...risk models very low, need to trade some to see the real deal near expiry. Safe bet is to close it b4 it gets to the far wing, I guess.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #124
  • Dec 6, 2025 9:42am Dec 6, 2025 9:42am
looks like at least 3dte is needed, for calls

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #125
  • Dec 9, 2025 8:16pm Dec 9, 2025 8:16pm
NDX combo for the week, I might add some QQQ to the upside b4 the FOMC
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #126
  • Edited 11:12am Dec 11, 2025 10:46am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting The Fool
NDX combo for the week, I might add some QQQ to the upside b4 the FOMC {image}
All my hopes n dreams whacked by ORCL. If NDX can rally > 250 pts into tomorrow, I will make some $ on the Friday fly, everything else has been a loser.

Losses on put spreads were small though. I lost about $1 on each of them. Loss on the 12/11 call fly will be total. All can be made up if NDX gets to 25900 Friday...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #127
  • Dec 11, 2025 12:56pm Dec 11, 2025 12:56pm
look at 0dte closing state to see what a run to itm in the next day might give. For the 12/12 call fly a run to close itm even 10 pts would be nice. Need some AI dip buyers to show up in force

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #128
  • Dec 12, 2025 9:15am Dec 12, 2025 9:15am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} All my hopes n dreams whacked by ORCL. If NDX can rally > 250 pts into tomorrow, I will make some $ on the Friday fly, everything else has been a loser. Losses on put spreads were small though. I lost about $1 on each of them. Loss on the 12/11 call fly will be total. All can be made up if NDX gets to 25900 Friday...
the put spreads I closed early did well - the fotm calendar went to a little over b/e but the put diagonal went to near $40 today. I closed them both for small losses...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #129
  • Dec 12, 2025 7:38pm Dec 12, 2025 7:38pm
must test drive these risk-free combos. Put side works similarly but might have to take a small net debit. Always put the calendar long @ date same as credit vert. calendar strike always closer to itm (or higher delta; if have good conviction, go 2:1 cldr:vert; better to go 2:1 and take one off @ cldr expiry & leave the long to run.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #130
  • Dec 20, 2025 10:08am Dec 20, 2025 10:08am
Looking for a good rally into Xmas.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #131
  • Dec 20, 2025 10:10am Dec 20, 2025 10:10am
same idea via QQQ in smaller accounts
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #132
  • Jan 4, 2026 9:03pm Jan 4, 2026 9:03pm
NDX has not shown much strength since b4 T'giving. I'd like to see some >200-400pt days in a row for a change....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #133
  • Jan 4, 2026 9:09pm Jan 4, 2026 9:09pm
for the bear case, cheap fotm put diagonals
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #134
  • Jan 4, 2026 9:15pm Jan 4, 2026 9:15pm
if no conviction for downside, avoid NDX, go with cheaper /NQ or QQQ...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #135
  • Jan 7, 2026 8:12pm Jan 7, 2026 8:12pm
possibility of a SCOTUS announcement on Trump's IEEPA tariffs Friday spells opportunity to me. If those tariffs are knocked down, my gut is we will see equities tank big time. I could be wrong and I will have something on for the bull case. And also, no guarantee that they will have a ruling ready Friday. Also also, they usually make such announcements at 1000 AM eastern, but, they might wait til after market close to make any announcement on the tariffs.

So, just assuming they announce on the tariffs Friday at 10:00 and something like this is what I will have for put spreads:

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risking $2600 to make >$50k. b/e at 25,600. I'd want the diagonals to ride thru to Monday. Looking for a >1,000 red candle then.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #136
  • Jan 15, 2026 9:24am Jan 15, 2026 9:24am
on paper, today, risking max loss <$100 to make up to $5k or more. We'll see how it looks Friday. Best would be a quick run to 26,000. Tricky would be a slow move up to less than that and a dance at expiry. Big down move will lose $80.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #137
  • Jan 15, 2026 12:12pm Jan 15, 2026 12:12pm
Quoting The Fool
on paper, today, risking max loss <$100 to make up to $5k or more. We'll see how it looks Friday. Best would be a quick run to 26,000. Tricky would be a slow move up to less than that and a dance at expiry. Big down move will lose $80. {image}
with the NDX downturn, I could close the bw fly for <$1 debit now, but I suppose I will let it ride til Friday.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138
  • Jan 15, 2026 10:20pm Jan 15, 2026 10:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}with the NDX downturn, I could close the bw fly for <$1 debit now, but I suppose I will let it ride til Friday.
Well I was stupid not to do that. The whole point of the bwf is to fund the 3x long calls. I coulda got out for like a 75c debit. Now watching /NQ overnight and lots of bluesky tech news and I could see a run towards 26,000 Friday. I can still make money on the combo, but I'll be fighting the bwf all the way up, and especially after 25,900...I guess I was thinking of pinning that, but that'll only pay off at the close. Stupid....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139
  • Jan 16, 2026 9:09am Jan 16, 2026 9:09am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Well I was stupid not to do that. The whole point of the bwf is to fund the 3x long calls.
doesn't matter, as NDX turned sluggish. I closed the long calls for 15-20c credit, trying to close the bwfly for small credit also.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #140
  • Jan 21, 2026 11:53am Jan 21, 2026 11:53am
entered this morning, b4 the latest Greenland pop....looking for > 25,800 by Friday

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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