Justin's Playground

A stop order is placed for fun.....

BE out. I am interested in reentry when it breaks the top...

Quick one.
This bastard is predictable actually....

A higgledy piggledy trade but managed to end up in black....




This is just a game.... My real max loss is limited to the cost I purchased this eval account.

Yes, indeed. It was nearly filling the pivot and came back down to hunt stops and then came back and finally filled the pivot. It's really possible in a choppy condition like today. Need some solid SL strategy. Pivot is obviously works like a magnet but filling the pivot is NOT guaranteed. I've blown my daytraders account in this move. Not a big deal though. Lesson learned. 1M trading is very vulnerable to chops. I will try 5M or 15M chart based day trading from next week.

Demo practicing from this week. No more prop firm eval accounts left as I blew them all.... Just for fun hobby.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Why day traders still lose money even if they use VWAP?


VWAP is a tool, not an edge by itself. Many day traders lose money with VWAP because of how they use it and what they ignore around it. Here are the real reasons—especially relevant for active futures traders like you.
1. VWAP is context-dependent, not a signal
Most traders treat VWAP like:

1. “Buy below VWAP”
2. “Sell above VWAP”

But VWAP doesn’t predict direction. It only shows where the average participant transacted.
Common failure:
Trading against a strong trend just because price is extended from VWAP.
Example (COMEX Gold):

1. Strong trend day
2. Price keeps pulling back shallowly above VWAP
3. Mean-reversion traders short → get steamrolled

VWAP works very differently on:

1. Trend day
2. Balanced / range day
3. News / liquidation day

Most losses happen because traders don’t identify the day type first.
2. Institutions use VWAP passively, not for entries
Big players:

1. Use VWAP to benchmark execution
2. Care about average fill quality, not tick-perfect entries

Retail traders:

1. Enter market orders at VWAP
2. Put tight stops just beyond VWAP

Result:

1. They become liquidity, not smart money.

VWAP attracts:

1. Stop hunts
2. Absorption
3. Fake breaks

3. VWAP gets overcrowded
Because VWAP is popular:

1. Everyone sees the same line
2. Everyone puts stops in the same places

Market makers know this.
Typical trap:

1. Price dips slightly below VWAP
2. Stops get triggered
3. Price instantly snaps back

Traders blame “manipulation,” but it’s actually predictable liquidity behavior.
4. No confirmation = low probability
VWAP alone has no timing mechanism.
Missing confirmations:

1. Order flow / delta
2. Volume profile (HVN/LVN)
3. Structure (higher low / lower high)
4. Time of day (open vs lunch vs close)

VWAP without confirmation = coin flip.
5. Wrong stop placement
Classic mistakes:

1. Stop exactly at VWAP
2. Stop a fixed number of ticks from VWAP

VWAP is not a support/resistance line—it’s a zone.
Smart traders:

1. Let VWAP get tested and defended
2. Place stops beyond structure, not the line itself

6. Psychological misuse
VWAP gives traders false confidence:
“Price is too far from VWAP, it has to revert”
That belief:

1. Encourages averaging down
2. Encourages oversized positions
3. Encourages fighting momentum

Trend days destroy this mindset.
7. VWAP works best as a filter, not a trigger
Profitable traders typically use VWAP to:

1. Decide bias (above = bullish, below = bearish)
2. Avoid bad trades (don’t short above VWAP on trend days)
3. Define areas of interest, not entries

The actual edge comes from:

1. Execution
2. Risk control
3. Reading participation

How consistently profitable traders actually use VWAP
They combine it with:

1. Session context (overnight high/low, opening range)
2. Volume profile
3. Delta divergence
4. Time-of-day behavior
5. Trend strength

VWAP answers “where”, not “when” or “why.”
Bottom line
Day traders lose money with VWAP because:

1. They trade it mechanically
2. They fight trend days
3. They ignore liquidity behavior
4. They mistake a reference point for a signal

VWAP doesn’t create an edge.
The trader does.
If you want, I can:

1. Break down VWAP usage specifically for Gold futures
2. Explain trend vs balance day VWAP rules
3. Show high-probability VWAP + order flow setups

Just tell me which one you want.

What is the most useful indicator in day trading?


There’s no single “most useful” indicator in day trading that works for everyone or every market. But among consistently profitable day traders, one concept stands above all indicators:
Price Action + Volume
Indicators are secondary. The market’s price and volume contain all information.
That said, if we must name the most useful indicator, the best answer is:
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)
Why VWAP is so powerful for day trading
VWAP is used heavily by institutions, which makes it self-fulfilling.

1. Shows fair value for the day
2. Acts as dynamic support/resistance
3. Excellent for mean reversion AND trend continuation
4. Works across stocks, futures, crypto
5. Very effective on intraday timeframes

How pros use VWAP

1. Above VWAP → bullish bias
2. Below VWAP → bearish bias
3. Pullbacks to VWAP in trend = high-probability entries
4. Rejection at VWAP = fade/mean-reversion trades

Volume (NOT just volume bars)
If price moves without volume → it’s suspect.
Key volume tools:

1. Volume spikes → institutional activity
2. Delta / Order Flow (for futures)
3. Volume Profile (HVN / LVN)

Simple Moving Average (20–50 EMA)
Not for signals — for structure.

1. Helps define trend
2. Acts as dynamic S/R
3. Works well when aligned with VWAP

Indicators that are overrated for day trading

1. MACD (too lagging)
2. RSI (often misused)
3. Stochastics (choppy in intraday noise)
4. Too many indicators → analysis paralysis

Best Indicator Combo (Minimal & Effective)
For a day trader like you (especially in futures):
VWAP
Volume / Order Flow
20 or 50 EMA
Everything else is optional.
The honest truth
Indicators don’t make money. Context does.

1. Market structure
2. Time of day
3. Liquidity
4. Volatility regime

If you want, tell me:

1. What market you trade (ES, NQ, Gold, etc.)
2. Your timeframe
3. Trend or mean-reversion style

I can suggest a very clean, professional indicator setup tailored exactly to your trading style.

Hi Justin,
For myself I find the the Best Indicator for Price is Structure and Mean Reversion.

Yes, of course we trust and believe in structures, not candles. I just wanted to figure out how to use VWAP. VWAP must have something but it's difficult to figure that out.... Anyway, have happy holidays and happy new year. Each year, you become even greater trader!

Jurik moving average with VWAP confirmation. Does this work?


Short answer: yes, it can work — but only in very specific ways.
Long answer below, tailored to day trading (which you do).
Why this combo makes sense conceptually
1. Jurik Moving Average (JMA)
Strengths

1. Extremely low lag compared to EMA/HMA
2. Excellent noise filtering
3. Great at defining short-term momentum direction

Weakness

1. By itself, it’s still just a derived price → can whipsaw in chop

2. VWAP
Strengths

1. Anchored to real traded volume
2. Acts as institutional fair value
3. Excellent mean / regime filter

Weakness

1. Terrible timing tool by itself
2. Late for entries if used alone

They complement each other well:
JMA = timing
VWAP = context
When JMA + VWAP actually works
Best market condition

1. Intraday trend days
2. Clear VWAP slope
3. No tight range compression

Worst condition

1. VWAP flat
2. Mean-reversion / lunchtime chop
3. News-driven volatility spikes

High-probability use cases (important)
1. VWAP as a regime filter (not entry)
This is where most traders mess up.
Rule

1. Only take longs above VWAP
2. Only take shorts below VWAP

Do NOT use VWAP cross as an entry.
2. JMA as a momentum trigger
Good JMA settings for day trading:

1. Length: 10–20
2. Phase: 0 to +50
3. Power: default / 2

Valid entry logic

1. Price pulls back toward JMA
2. JMA maintains slope
3. VWAP still holds bias

This avoids chasing.
3. Best structure setup (example)
Long

1. Price above VWAP
2. VWAP slope up
3. JMA pulls flat or slightly down
4. First strong close back above JMA
5. Entry on next bar or micro pullback

This works particularly well on:

1. ES
2. NQ
3. GC (Gold — which you trade)

Where traders go wrong
Using both as crosses

1. JMA cross + VWAP cross = late + laggy
2. Almost guarantees bad R:R

Over-smoothing JMA

1. Length > 30 = basically useless for intraday

Ignoring VWAP slope

1. Flat VWAP = no edge

Does this beat VWAP alone?
Yes, if:

1. You trade pullbacks, not breakouts
2. You accept fewer trades
3. You use hard risk limits

No, if:

1. You scalp 1–2 ticks
2. You trade chop
3. You expect indicator-only signals to print money

Advanced improvement (optional but powerful)
Since you already care about zero-lag / smooth averages:

1. Use JMA for entries
2. Use anchored VWAP (session or swing anchor)
3. Add volatility filter (ATR compression or range expansion)

This removes ~30–40% of losing trades.
Bottom line (honest answer)
JMA + VWAP is not a magic combo — but it’s a professional-grade framework when used correctly.
If you want, I can:

1. Propose exact JMA parameters for Gold (GC)
2. Design a non-repainting rule set
3. Compare this combo vs EMA + VWAP or ZLMA + VWAP

Just tell me how you trade GC (scalp vs pullback vs trend).

Yes, as Steve said, hindsight view is a wonderful thing. As he's in holiday, I tried to post some hindsight example of his trading style.
Actually, it was too close to market close so I don't really expect we would take this one anyway. Just wait wait wait until we finally find some good setup. One good trade per day should be good enough I think. Our mission is now to catch it in real time.... Not easy but not impossible either.

I think I have settled in 30 seconds scalping mainly using VWAP and some moving averages. Still working on Steve style 5M swing trading also. In the end, I haven't given up day trading until the last day of this year and I have decided to continue my endeavor in the new year. More postings to come.

Thank you Steve!!