Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

Excellent post Kette

Some useful stats on the 1hour Initial Balance for the ES S&P500 indice futures
and some other timbits

The 1hour initial balance is the period from 930am-1030am in otherwords the first
hours trading activity of the New York Open.

The probability of price breaking out or breaking down from the IB is extremely high.
Some say 70+%... my studies tell me 80-95% of days the IB will break. Keep in mind the
range of the IB is important... From narrow to wide... narrow tends to lead to breakouts and
price hitting IB extensions.. Wider IBs tend to stay more in range or extending to the 127% or
150% level.

The highest probability time for these IB breakouts is 1030am -1130am..This is the Golden Window.
IF price has not broken the IB by 1130am/2hours after the Open the probability of a successful trend days drops significantly.

Single sided Breakouts occur 75-85% of trading days
Dbl sided Breakouts occur 10% of trading days
Full range days occur 5-10% of trading days

On Single sided breakout days price will retrace 10% back within the IB range 70% of the time.
It will retrace 25% of the IB range 40% of the time.

On single sided breakdowns price will retrace 10% back within the IB range 80+% of the time.
It will retrace 25% of the IB range 70% of the time.
It will retrace 50% of the IB range nearly 50% of the time.

Big difference on the short side Hint

When we have a 5minute bar close outside of the IB, regardless of distance from the IB.
Price will hit the 127% extension of the IB 90% of days.
Price will hit the 161.8% extension of the IB 70% of days.

The days of the week all trade differently yet certain days vastly outperform the others.

Breakout Success by Days of the week:

#1 Thursdays by far are the highest probability of a successful BO and trend day
#2 Tuesday ..Quite often Mondays are inside days and Tuesdays generally breaks Mondays range.
#3 Friday Fridays can be hit or miss...think NFP
#4 Wednesday This is often a trap day,,,ex waiting for FOMC Breakouts frequently fail on Weds.
#5 Monday,,, is frequently an Inside day Lowest probability day of a successful IB Breakout


Some other Tidbits or Timbits as we have in Canada

Average daily Volume of the ES is 1.5-1.8 million contracts
RTHs compromise 75-85 % of that volume
Globex is 15-25 % of that volume.
I say this in context of using Volume Profile...Globex volume does matter and its VAH VAL levels etc.
But one needs to always pay attention to NY RTH levels.

And the Micro contracts are a different beast. It can be 50-50 the RTH volume and Globex.
So if your trading Micros my suggestion is use Emini Volume Profile.

Now with Gold futures the Volume is distributed much more evenly across both the GC and MGC contracts during RTH and Globex.

Another tidbit is when using Anchored VWAP trading ES... I always always always have a AVWAP to the prev days NY RTHs...anchored to the 930am NY Open and I Observe those levels going into the next days NY session... of course along with Session weekly etc...

Again its due to the volume... Globex ES is more retail based NY is more institutional thus the difference in volume and importance of NY RTH levels. And another reason why IB levels are pertinent thru Globex

Anyways hope some find some usefulness to the above in some way

Cheers !

At timestamp 23:49, the trader speaks a bit about VWAP.

Thanks for sharing DPM Richie Naso ! Interesting fellow...This guy made the ES market in years gone by... HUGE player.
And VWAP yep....When a guy like Richie is moving millions of shares of IBM and speaks of the importance of VWAP
might be wise to listen. Interesting how he talks of markets balancing themselves and VWAP

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14672546

Thanks for sharing.

Richie Naso on VWAP

Thanks for posting this. Goes to show that this indicator is used by the movers; so us Remoras can benefit from watching VWAP to see where the sharks are headed.

Yes sir ....I recall seeing reading the head of Citadel ?? talking with US Congress and mentioning VWAP...shooting from
the memory hip here lol... I may be out to lunch...

Gold of late has been just performing absolutely stellar off Various VWAPs from the Monthly on down.
But then Im only really watching ES and Gold....

First things first for those interested...Basic basic video on AMT.
And really its all you need. The basics of AMT will carry you far.

Chris Drysdale's VWAP core setup guide can be a real gem for some.
The same setups happen every single day.


Here's a link to the core setups and priniciples.
And I do have Chris's permission to share

DANG bloody hell...

I just spent the last 30+++ minutes writing a post....
somehow closed my browser and all gone...

Generally I will compose a longer (Important to me) post in Word.
oops.

Try it again tomorrow perhaps.... time to step away from this machine lol

Golden Levels

Timing Levels Behaviour of Price,,, my foundation,,,

ES
Today is Monday...

A traders toolbox generally over time will acquire different useful tools
along ones journey,,,,

Thur Fri Mon Scenario(high probability) ..if you have that tool and are AWARE of its use.
One would target the 6805 area when the short sets up for you.

It's a once a week scenario only Thur and Fri are the setup and by Fridays
close you know whether you should be possibly pulling out the "tool" on Monday.

Fridays VAL coincides with the target level...

How good can you get ? 1% better everyday.

Ears hoping u get to open it soon

Somewhere buried in a clogged artery in the world's ugliest man,
there is a tiny little clot struggling to break free I believe in you,
little clot go,
be free !

A good straightforward video explaining VWAP.

Blue’s approach highlights that trading success comes from understanding price behaviour, key levels, and timing, not from overloading charts or indicators. Focus on simple, repeatable setups, align with market flow, and use clear rules. Observing Initial Balance levels, VWAP, and price discovery patterns consistently can give an edge even in limited trading windows.

TIMINGS LEVELS BEHAVIOUR OF PRICE

Hi there! Happy new year to all, would like to contribute to the thread as I´m learning Blue´s way of gauging the market context, seems the right way to have some structure and organization to start looking for possible entries. Please before comenting, must say than I´m not a profitable trader at moment, I´m just a learner who struggle and is trying each and every chance to have an opportunity at this. So any feedback/help, good or bad will always be very welcome. Have a nice day!!

Analysis of 13/01 and today 14/01

Bienvenido tradernurse, qué bueno verte aquí.!!!
How awesome!! great charts...

Just on my phone right now I will be back at my desk in 45 minutes and take a look at the charts on the big screens... Then we can talk about it