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The Swamp

  • #126,001
  • Dec 10, 2025 9:03am Dec 10, 2025 9:03am
5 Days inside 60 pips range !
Today 160 ?
1.18 for serious bulls ?
1.1480 for B!
  • #126,002
  • Dec 10, 2025 9:16am Dec 10, 2025 9:16am
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...4?d=1765372338
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,003
  • Dec 10, 2025 9:25am Dec 10, 2025 9:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A dud atm. I do have it as bullish. I anticipated it dropping more today, the way the 12h behaved. It happens late day sometimes. The problem is FOMC news could prevent it after. I don't think the FED will have a good outlook. The package delivers like amazon. Laid off workers at a time they normally hire them. If I'm going to get the deeper pullback, the window may be after LC before FOMC. Because LC is the lowish now. It supported 1628. It may not give the depth I thought it would. I did anticipate a hot stove move from 1606/07ish. I still...
It came down, but now even higher. I still have it as bullish, but didn't get the retrace. The bankruptcies news cant be helping the usa outlook (usd). At a 15 year high and expected to be much higher to end the year 580k. Rember 15 years ago was in the collateral 2008 crash. The 6 time bankrupt leader is making Bankruptcies great again. The largest sector bankruptcies is the industrial manufacturing sectors. Who would of thunK? What could possibly go wrong in putting a moron in charge of the Nuke codes. He was supposed to bring back these jobs.
655 corporate bankruptcies in October. If this 15 high in bankruptcies go beyond to 16-17 years. It could pass the 2008 crises in corporate bankruptcies. I'm waiting for the excuses to follow.. Come on, make them all up.. I expect it.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/busin...897147906-co4_
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,004
  • Dec 10, 2025 9:37am Dec 10, 2025 9:37am
I will just take a stab at Florida being at the top of the list. But I may be wrong because Delaware. Has more corporations home base filed in it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,005
  • Dec 10, 2025 9:41am Dec 10, 2025 9:41am
Quoting gatorinla
I will just take a stab at Florida being at the top of the list. But I may be wrong because Delaware. Has more corporations home base filed in it.
I was wrong. Delaware didn't make the list. Its where a high % of financial companies reside. That may come later in the cycle.


In terms of sheer volume of filings, California has the most bankruptcies in America in 2025. When adjusted for population, however, states in the Southeast, such as Alabama and Georgia, have the highest per capita rates.
Total Bankruptcy Filings (Volume)
For the 12-month period ending September 30, 2025, California recorded the highest absolute number of filings. This is largely due to its status as the most populous state in the nation.

  1. California: 52,676 filings (for the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2025).

Other states with high volumes include:

  1. Florida
  2. Texas
  3. Ohio
  4. Michigan

Bankruptcy Filings Per Capita (Rate)
Per capita analysis offers a different perspective, highlighting areas where financial distress is most widespread relative to the number of residents. In these rankings, Southern states consistently appear at the top.
The states with the highest bankruptcy filing rates per 100,000 residents in 2025 are in the Southeast region:

  1. Alabama: 527.3 filings per 100,000 residents
  2. Georgia: 514.6 filings per 100,000 residents
  3. Mississippi: 483.1 filings per 100,000 residents
  4. Tennessee: 478.9 filings per 100,000 residents
  5. Kentucky: 472.5 filings per 100,000 residents

Overall, total bankruptcy filings across the U.S. have been increasing steadily through 2025, reflecting continuing financial pressures on households.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,006
  • Dec 10, 2025 9:45am Dec 10, 2025 9:45am
If you sold 1647 54 area. This Lc hour don't seem bearish for 1628. You may want to close. i have it as bullish myself. It dont to be able to get to 1606.. It made it as low as 1614 yesterday.
It still may get to 1606.. Its just not acting like its attracted to 1628 in this last hour for LC
.. If its going to 1606, it may be after /lC in the late cycle, but before FOMC is my guess.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,007
  • Dec 10, 2025 9:58am Dec 10, 2025 9:58am
Quoting gatorinla
If you sold 1647 54 area. This Lc hour don't seem bearish for 1628. You may want to close. i have it as bullish myself. It dont to be able to get to 1606.. It made it as low as 1614 yesterday. It still may get to 1606.. Its just not acting like its attracted to 1628 in this last hour for LC .. If its going to 1606, it may be after /lC in the late cycle, but before FOMC is my guess.
it should of done it, it not attracting this time.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,008
  • Dec 10, 2025 10:02am Dec 10, 2025 10:02am
Quoting gatorinla
If you sold 1647 54 area. This Lc hour don't seem bearish for 1628. You may want to close. i have it as bullish myself. It dont to be able to get to 1606.. It made it as low as 1614 yesterday. It still may get to 1606.. Its just not acting like its attracted to 1628 in this last hour for LC .. If its going to 1606, it may be after /lC in the late cycle, but before FOMC is my guess.
if you closed for the 10 pips.. It appears be wanting 1647/54 again. Its still a R area.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,009
  • Dec 10, 2025 10:37am Dec 10, 2025 10:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if you closed for the 10 pips.. It appears be wanting 1647/54 again. Its still a R area.
everyone just waiting for fomc to see where are we heading to
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #126,010
  • Dec 10, 2025 11:42am Dec 10, 2025 11:42am
A definite b/o attempt.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,011
  • Dec 10, 2025 11:44am Dec 10, 2025 11:44am
Quoting johncen
{quote} everyone just waiting for fomc to see where are we heading to
I think its going North, but may drop first to 1606. That may be enough to trigger stops, and rise. It made 1614. That was in the 1606 area expected. I just dont know if it makes another attempt and a DB. The 12h close pointed in that direction. The last 6h closed above 1647. Opposite of the 12h sign
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,012
  • Dec 10, 2025 12:01pm Dec 10, 2025 12:01pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} everyone just waiting for fomc to see where are we heading to
The admiration has held back on releasing some economic numbers. You know damn well if the numbers were good they would be released. He is living in a non reality world. He keeps telling us gasoline is 1.98 per gallon. Not once not twice. But over 1/2 dozen times.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,013
  • Dec 10, 2025 1:58pm Dec 10, 2025 1:58pm
It appears to be going North.. the b/o was 1647.. You may get a chance to long there in that 1647 area later.. It should not go far below. The LC is just a little below 1647.. Overnight you may get a new chance.
Consider it luck if it falls back to 164x. 1722 had a chain link there. 1737 and 1749 could resist
1657 has support merit too.. But I rather 1647 since its stronger support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,014
  • Dec 10, 2025 2:15pm Dec 10, 2025 2:15pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,015
  • Dec 10, 2025 8:46pm Dec 10, 2025 8:46pm
It may not retrace to 1635/41/47.. But if it does, it may not be able to go much lower if at all. I still have it as bullish. With 1693 the breakout for bulls.. ATM is sustained above 1693..It may support it.
Sustained below 1693 does not mean bearish, just less bullish to neutral. The normal attraction should be 1641. I don't think 1647 will give up. So it may wick below a little. 1641/42 could possibly be a charry long. It also may remain above 1693.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,016
  • Dec 10, 2025 8:58pm Dec 10, 2025 8:58pm
In less than 5 min its testing 1693
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,017
  • Edited 5:29am Dec 11, 2025 5:17am | Edited 5:29am
Everything I have still targets 1737 and probably 1749+ to close the year out. All my current indicators tell me to long. The 1737 and 49 area may also resist. I have a possible algo at 1723. The b/o to me was 1647. PA often returns to at after. Its not 100% because 1606 was one too. It did get to 1614. The support area worked. *1723 is the dog chain stretched. We may see a temp pull back there.
Nothing I see is bearish.. 1723 may mean nothing.
1723 is a physics thing where every action has a reaction. its lower than 1737 and 49
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,018
  • Dec 11, 2025 7:32am Dec 11, 2025 7:32am
The algo chain stretched I think at 1723. Lets see if anything happens
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,019
  • Dec 11, 2025 7:37am Dec 11, 2025 7:37am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #126,020
  • Dec 11, 2025 7:41am Dec 11, 2025 7:41am
It has to play out. Bulls came back.. a small initial "hot stove touch affect"
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