What happen in the market today?

Gold prices consolidate amid declining bets on a Fed interest rate cut.

Although gold prices fell on Friday, drawing a bearish candle with wicks at the top and bottom of the candle, its movement remained within a consolidation pattern. Gold experienced a prolonged correction after reaching a new all-time high of $4,381, falling to a low of $3,886 in late October. Gold's movement over the past five days has tended to correct within a range of around $3,998-$4,132. Gold briefly recovered to $4,244 in mid-November, but failed to extend its gains.

Several factors are hampering gold's rise, including declining expectations for a Fed interest rate cut and a strengthening US dollar. Strong US PMI data helped the US dollar remain resilient, preventing XAU/USD from gathering recovery momentum.

However, market analysis also suggests that the Fed will keep interest rates lower or even consider cutting them sooner in 2025 due to recent weak economic data. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is around 69.4%, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates is 30.6%. A dovish signal from the Fed tends to be positive for gold, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

The US dollar has recently shown stability after a period of weakness. The DXY is currently at 100.196. If expectations of a Fed rate cut strengthen, this could put pressure on the USD, which in turn supports gold, as gold is priced in USD. Although the Fed minutes were released the previous week, the market is still digesting their contents. Any indication of future policy could impact the USD.

The US stock market has shown a mild correction or tends to move sideways, often causing investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, which benefit from such conditions. From a geopolitical perspective, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, although not mentioned today, have historically supported gold as a hedge.

Gold also enjoys structural support from global central banks as an alternative reserve. According to the World Gold Council, central banks held approximately 230 tons of net gold in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of approximately 28% compared to the previous quarter. As of the first quarter of the year to date, central bank purchases were recorded at approximately 634 tons. The World Gold Council (WGC) estimates total central bank purchases in 2025 to be in the range of 750-900 tons. The WGC survey shows that most central banks anticipate increasing gold holdings over the next five years, with many reducing their US dollar holdings as reserves. This trend demonstrates a transition by central banks in emerging and developed economies, increasingly considering gold as a strategic component of national reserves.

Today's fundamental analysis, with expectations of a Fed interest rate cut and a cautious stock market stance, suggests that fundamental sentiment tends to support a slight increase in gold prices, although the market may be in a consolidation or sideways phase following previous price movements.

Today's price range forecast: A reasonable price range is within $4,000-$4,132, and a wider range is between $3,960-$3,992 and $4,180-$4,200.

Silver prices rose, driven by expectations of Fed easing.

Silver prices rose on Monday, November 24, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of $51,382, a low of $49,667, and a close of $51,380.

Fundamental factors influencing the XAGUSD price that traders are paying attention to include interest rates and US central bank policy, US dollar performance and safe-haven demand, industrial demand, and global supply.

The rise in silver prices appears to be influenced by expectations of a Fed rate cut at its December meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, bets on a Fed rate cut have risen by 86.1%, while expectations of an unchanged rate are only 14.9%. New York Fed Governor John Williams stated that he sees room for further interest rate cuts in the near future. A weakening labor market has revived investor expectations for a December rate cut. Silver, as a safe-haven asset, finds support when interest rates fall due to lower opportunity costs.

Today, the US will release economic data that could trigger volatility. Core PPI and retail sales are expected to come in at 0.2%, up from the previous release of minus 0.1%. Retail sales are expected to come in at 0.4%, down from the previously revised 0.6%. If PPI and retail sales data are higher than expected, the possibility that the Fed will hold off on cutting interest rates or keep rates relatively high could pressure silver. Conversely, lower data increases expectations of a rate cut and supports silver.

Since silver is priced in USD, a strengthening or weakening of the USD can impact the XAGUSD exchange rate. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, is currently above the 100,000 level. The DXY remains hovering near its peak, fluctuating within a range for three consecutive days, after pausing the previous week's gains.

Industrial demand for silver is currently high, driven by renewable energy sectors such as solar panels, electric vehicles, and the electronics industry, such as semiconductor chips. On the other hand, global supply is not keeping up with demand, creating a structural deficit caused by declining production in several major producing countries, such as Mexico. This supply deficit could support silver prices in the long term.

Today's silver price forecast: Support is estimated at $47.90 - $47.40. Resistance is estimated at $52.00 - $52.50.

The New Zealand Dollar Recovers Slightly Ahead of the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The NZD/USD currency pair drew a small-bodied bullish candlestick on Tuesday with short shadows at the top and bottom of the candlestick. Despite the slight increase, movement remained confined within a narrow range. NZD/USD formed a high of 0.56281, a low of 0.55912, and a close of 0.56177.

Fundamental analysis shows that New Zealand's domestic economy is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% in the third quarter of 2025, the highest since 2026.

Today, traders will focus on the RBNZ's interest rate policy. Given signs of a weak New Zealand economy, the RBNZ is expected to cut interest rates or maintain a dovish stance. Exports of commodities such as dairy products have also declined, putting additional pressure on the NZD.

The RBNZ's interest rate is currently around 2.50%, lower than the Fed's 4% target rate. The market is currently awaiting the RBNZ's announcement, with most analysts predicting a 25 basis point cut. If the RBNZ actually cuts, especially by 50 bps, this would significantly pressure the NZD.

New Zealand's disappointing macroeconomic data have been a major factor in the recent weakening of the NZD. Reports on manufacturing activity continue to show signs of caution due to rising costs and weak confidence.

Meanwhile, the USD is gaining relative support from its safe-haven status and the possibility that the Fed will be more cautious in cutting interest rates. The Fed cut its interest rate in October by around 4.00%. However, there is a more dovish outlook, with the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the December meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of a cut has risen to 82.7%, and the probability of leaving interest rates unchanged is 17.3%.

Today's market attention is also focused on US data, which could influence expectations of future Fed rate cuts. US unemployment claims are expected to reach 226,000, down from a previously revised 220,000. The market is also closely watching other data, such as Durable Goods Orders, which will be released today.

The NZDUSD appears to be under pressure due to the widening interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Fed, fueled by expectations of a 25 bps rate cut. This is compounded by weak domestic economic factors and New Zealand's disappointing economic recovery.

Today's price forecast is within the lower range of 0.5555 - 0.5580, and the upper range of 0.5680 - 0.5695.

GBP/JPY surges on expectations of UK fiscal and budget policy

The GBP/JPY pair, often referred to as "the Beast" due to its high volatility, driven by a combination of high-yielding currencies (GBP) and safe-haven currencies (JPY), rose on Wednesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with virtually no shadows. The price formed a high of 207.133, a low of 205.116, and a close of 207.088.

The GBP's strengthening was supported by positive sentiment towards the pound due to market expectations of UK fiscal and budget policy. If fiscal policy is perceived as stable or improving, this could strengthen the GBP against the yen. The latest report from the UK government under Rachel Reeves just announced a large fiscal budget: tax increases worth around £26 billion through various instruments. This includes a freeze on income tax thresholds, higher taxes on dividends, high-priced properties, pension taxes, and other taxes on investment/property income.

Part of the additional tax revenue will be used to expand social spending, such as increasing public services, health care, education, the minimum wage, and public investment. The government claims this policy aims to stabilize and restore fiscal headroom, the space to finance debt and spending without excessive debt increases.

The market responded with optimism, with UK government bonds surging and long-term bond yields falling, meaning lower government borrowing costs. The strengthening of the GBP indicates that the market views this new fiscal policy as a signal of fiscal stability and improvement. However, this policy faces criticism and risks, as it is perceived as burdening household and investor incomes, particularly for workers, retirees, and small and medium-sized businesses.

On the other hand, there is currently speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in the near future to curb inflation. However, uncertainty surrounding Japan's large fiscal stimulus and concerns about debt/deficit could keep the Japanese yen vulnerable. This situation creates a dynamic where the yen could strengthen slightly if the BoJ actually hikes or raises interest rates. However, structural pressures on the yen remain, such as debt, fiscal pressures, and stimulus, which could cause the yen to remain relatively weak.

The Japanese government currently carries a public debt burden, with a debt-to-GDP ratio among the highest in the world. For the coming fiscal year, the Japanese Ministry of Finance has requested a substantial allocation for debt service costs of approximately 32.4 trillion yen. This figure represents an increase of approximately 15% compared to the previous year, indicating that interest and debt costs are rising, along with rising government bond yields. However, in an effort to improve the fiscal situation, the government plans to reduce new government bond issuance compared to the previous period.

Although the GBP is currently trending higher, there are risks and uncertainties if UK fiscal policy creates uncertainty, especially if the market perceives a potential economic slowdown. Or if the Bank of Japan actually raises interest rates in response to the weakening JPY. This could potentially cause the JPY to strengthen against the GBP.

GBPJPY daily forecast: A realistic daily range is estimated between 206.00 and 208.00. Key support is around 206.00 - 206.50, and key resistance is around 208.00 - 208.50.

The Canadian Dollar Strengthens as Macroeconomic Data Points to Improvement

The USD/CAD currency pair drew a bearish candle on Thursday, extending the previous day's decline. The price formed a high of 1.40498, a low of 1.40277, and a close of 1.40281. The downtrend has crossed the middle band, seeking the next support target near the lower band.

The Canadian Dollar's strength appears to be largely influenced by improving Canadian economic data. Recently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has been in the spotlight due to improving Canadian macroeconomic data. The service sector has returned to growth, with the services PMI above 50, signaling more stable Canadian economic growth.

Today, Statistics Canada will release GDP data, which could be a key factor in Canadian dollar volatility. Many analysts expect the Canadian economy to grow in the third quarter, projecting around +0.5% quarter-on-quarter. According to Forexfactory, monthly GDP is estimated to grow by 0.2%, compared to the previous release of -0.3% contraction. If GDP shows positive growth, especially higher than consensus, it could signal that the Canadian economy is recovering from its contraction. Conversely, if the figure is weak or even contractionary, it could raise expectations of further monetary easing by the Bank of Canada (BoC), which could weaken the CAD. Because the market is currently factoring in expectations about BoC monetary policy, the GDP result could be a short-term catalyst.

On the other hand, market expectations of a Fed rate cut also support the Canadian dollar, as a Fed rate cut could impact lower-yielding US bonds, making deposits and USD-based instruments less attractive. Theoretically, global investors will shift funds to other countries offering higher yields, reducing demand for the USD, which in turn weakens the USD.

According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of an interest rate cut is currently estimated at 86.9%. Market expectations are for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's December 10, 2025, meeting. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is showing a weakening trend. The DXY is below 100.00. At the time of writing, it was at 99.556, a decrease of approximately -0.01%. The DXY has shown a bearish candle in the past two days and is currently near its previous low, which technically could be an important support area.

The Canadian dollar is also correlated with oil prices; rising oil prices tend to support the CAD. Currently, oil prices, although under slight pressure, saw a recovery yesterday, with WTI prices showing signs of an increase.

For the USDCAD price forecast, the main support area is focused on the 1.3950-1.3920 range as the lower boundary of a more stable trading range. A breakout of this level indicates strong selling pressure. The main resistance area is the 1.4100-1.4150 range, which represents the psychological level of the previous swing low.

Gold prices surged amid heightened market expectations for a Fed rate cut.

Last weekend, gold prices extended their gains on December 28, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. Gold prices reached a high of $4226, a low of $4156, and a close of $4223. This high price approached the historical high of $4244 reached on November 13.

Gold prices are generally bullish, based on short- to medium-term fundamental sentiment, supported by market expectations regarding US central bank policy and the global economy.

The market has been anticipating that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, with expectations that a cut will occur at its December meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bps is 87.4%, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range is 12.6%.

Expectations of a rate cut have weakened the US dollar, making low-yielding assets less attractive. The DXY is seen moving below the 100 level, currently around 99.479. Since gold is priced in USD, a weaker US dollar supports bullish gold prices.

Today's key data focus is on the US economic calendar, particularly the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI and the Chicago PMI, which will be released early in the US session. Weaker-than-expected data could strengthen speculation of an interest rate cut, thus benefiting gold. Conversely, stronger data could dampen expectations of a cut and support the USD.

Current global risk sentiment is fraught with concerns about a recession. The OECD/World Bank projects a slowdown of 2.3%-2.9% in 2025, heightening recession fears. In times of global economic and political uncertainty, gold tends to function as a safe-haven asset. The greater the concerns, the higher the demand for gold. Meanwhile, demand from central banks has also reportedly surged, providing a solid price floor for gold. Central banks such as the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the National Bank of Poland (NBP), and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) are some examples of global central banks that are strategic buyers of gold.

The unstable global economic environment and the potential for US dollar weakness continue to support gold, which is seen as a hedge, supported by monetary policy, institutional demand, and the potential for USD weakness.

Today's gold price forecast: strong support is estimated at around $4,132 and resistance at around $4,246-$4,277. The market is awaiting US PMI data. If it's weaker than forecast, gold's resistance target will be around $4,246, with a potential further increase to $4,277. However, a correction could occur if there's significant profit-taking or the US PMI data is surprisingly strong. If the price falls below $4,180, the short-term bullish trend could be threatened.

WTI oil prices rose on the back of OPEC+'s latest decision on production policy.

WTI oil prices traded around 59.37 on Monday, December 1st, drawing a bullish medium-bodied candle with a slight shadow at the top of the candle. WTI oil formed a high of 59.79, a low of 58.69, and a close of 59.39.

Crude oil prices were supported by strong buying interest after OPEC+ decided to halt all production increases starting in the first quarter of 2026. This could be a significant shift after several months of increased supply, with OPEC+ adding nearly 2.9 million barrels per day since April 2025. The OPEC+ policy change comes against the backdrop of sensitive geopolitical events, as the US seeks to de-escalate the war between Russia and Ukraine. The US has suggested a peace deal would include easing sanctions on Russia, which could potentially increase global oil supply.

The latest OPEC+ policy is seen as an effort to prevent price pressures from potential supply increases outside OPEC+. However, this sentiment appears to be limited by persistent concerns about a global oversupply from non-OPEC+ producers, particularly the US, which could potentially depress prices in the medium term until 2026. Data shows that US oil production remains high. US oil production data continues to reach historic highs, a fundamental factor that is bearish on oil prices. Monthly production data shows US crude oil production at 13.844 million barrels per day, up from 13.800 million barrels per day the previous month.

High supply from the US, which is not part of OPEC+, could undermine OPEC+'s efforts to balance the market. The market is concerned that increased US oil production will flood the market, especially if global demand slows. This strong production data reinforces the fundamental analysis that XTIUSD faces significant challenges in maintaining price gains.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, tensions in the Middle East, such as attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, are supporting factors for rising oil prices. These events can increase shipping costs and cause delays, creating a geopolitical risk premium.

The current oil demand outlook remains shrouded in uncertainty, largely related to the Fed's interest rate policy and the economic slowdown in several major regions, which are contributing to price pressures. US economic data, particularly interest rates and inflation, will continue to be a factor of concern as they can impact the US dollar.

The XTIUSD market currently appears to be in a tug-of-war between OPEC+ support and supply restrictions, geopolitical risks, and pressure from potential oversupply from non-OPEC+ groups and global demand uncertainty.

The daily forecast for XTIUSD is for key support in the range of 58.00-58.50, with key resistance in the range of 60.00-60.60. A break below 57 could confirm a dominant bearish trend. Meanwhile, a break above 61 could pave the way for higher resistance in the range of 62.00-63.00.

Australian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Australian GDP Data

The Australian dollar strengthened during Tuesday's trading session. The AUD/USD pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The AUD/USD price formed a high of 0.65709, a low of 0.65346, and a close of 0.65647.

The rise in this currency pair was supported by improving market sentiment and a weakening US dollar due to rising expectations of a Fed interest rate cut at its December 10th meeting. Currently, the US dollar index (DXY) remains below the 100-day level, at 99.356 at the time of writing, having reached a low of 99.009. The DXY measures the USD's performance against six other major currencies. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut is currently 82.9%, while the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates is 10.2%. Expectations of a Fed interest rate easing could weaken the USD against other currencies, including the AUD.

Another factor supporting the AUD/USD is persistently high inflation from the RBA, which has led the market to believe the RBA will not rush to cut interest rates, thus maintaining the attractiveness of the AUD. Meanwhile, the persistent weakness of the US dollar (USD) reflects a series of weaker US economic indicators, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.

Today, market attention will focus on Australian GDP data and US economic data, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI. These economic data could trigger market volatility.

External factors such as commodity prices, including Australian exports, and global demand also remain relevant. The AUD is highly sensitive to the commodity cycle and Australian exports. This is important for the AUD, a commodity currency. Several key Australian exports generate significant foreign exchange earnings, such as iron ore, Australia's largest export. In addition, coal, natural gas, agricultural products, and gold also contribute significantly to Australia's foreign exchange reserves.

Overall, fundamental conditions currently support the AUD against the USD in the short to medium term, especially if Australian monetary policy remains hawkish while the USD faces potential easing. However, there are risk warnings if the global economy weakens or if US economic data returns to strength and the USD strengthens, which could put pressure on the AUD, especially if commodity demand declines. Several factors of concern include inflation and the Australian GDP. Quarterly GDP expectations are expected to rise slightly to 0.7% from the previous 0.6%. Higher actual data support the AUD, while weaker data could weaken the AUD.

Today's key US economic data is the ADP non-farm employment change, which is expected to come in at 5k, significantly lower than the previously revised 42k. The ISM services PMI is expected to come in at 52.0, down from the previously revised 52.4.

The forecasted price range today, AUDUSD: strong support is around 0.6480 - 0.6450, and strong resistance is around 0.6650 - 0.6680.

GBP/USD surges on positive reaction to UK economic policy

The GBPUSD pair surged significantly on Wednesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The GBPUSD price formed a high of 1.133533, a low of 1.32072, and a close of 1.33516.

The most notable factor influencing the GBPUSD price surge was the weakening USD. Many market participants are increasingly confident that the Fed will soon cut interest rates, which has reduced US bond yields and the attractiveness of the USD, leading to capital flows shifting to other currencies such as the GBP. With expectations of lower interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding the USD has weakened, providing a relative advantage against the GBP.

This week, there has been positive sentiment towards the UK. Recent fiscal policy announcements and stances have reassured investors that, despite challenges, the market is no longer overly pessimistic about the GBP. With expectations that the Bank of England's monetary policy will remain relatively competitive against the USD, despite projections of lower interest rates, the GBP remains attractive to investors compared to USD-based assets.

Technical factors and market psychology also contribute to the strengthening of the GBP. Some market participants are adopting a risk-on approach, reinforced by improving global risk appetite, as markets become more optimistic about non-USD currencies. Capital flows tend to move away from the safe-haven USD, benefiting the GBPUSD.

Recent US economic data, including that from the manufacturing and labor sectors, is considered less convincing, tending to contraction or slowdown, which has raised expectations of interest rate cuts and put pressure on the USD.

The surge in the GBPUSD pair is largely due to a combination of USD weakness due to expectations of a Fed rate cut and a slowing economy, positive sentiment toward the GBP, market action tending towards risk-on capital flows, and a supportive technical position.

Risk factors to consider next include major fluctuations in US economic data, which could trigger a sudden change in direction or a strong rebound in the USD. Disappointing UK economic data, unexpected monetary policy from the Bank of England (BoE) or the Fed, and changes in global market sentiment could put pressure on major currency pairs like the GBP/USD.

The GBP/USD price range forecast for today is: support is around 1.3250 - 1.3200, and resistance is around 1.338 - 1.3420. Psychological levels are forecasted at 1.32000 and 1.34000; a break above these levels could lead to significant price movements.

Swiss Franc Weakens Amid Weaker Swiss Annual Inflation Data

The USD/CHF pair moved higher, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow, during the trading session on Thursday, December 4th. The USD/CHF price currently forms a high of 0.80387, a low of 0.79910, and a close of 0.80375.

The Swiss Franc's weakening is in line with weaker Swiss inflation data. Data released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on Wednesday showed that the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 0% year-on-year in November, from 0.1% in the previous month. The lower-than-expected inflation reading supports the view that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain accommodative monetary policy. This, in turn, could lead to a weakening of the Swiss Franc against the USD.

Recently, reports emerged that the United States and Switzerland had reached an agreement to reduce US import tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%. This agreement has boosted Swiss exports, supporting the strengthening of the CHF. On the monetary policy front, inflation in Switzerland has slowed to a four-year low, from the current SNB interest rate of 0%. Due to stagnant inflation, low interest rates, and expectations that the SNB may maintain low rates for a while, the CHF has found support as a safe-haven currency.

Meanwhile, in the US, dovish sentiment toward the Federal Reserve due to US economic risks and weak employment/inflation data has increased the CHF's appeal against the USD. Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, is up to 99.077 from a low of 98.765. The strengthening of the USD comes as US jobless claims, released on Thursday, came in lower than expected, at 191,000, compared to the expected 219,000, below the revised 218,000.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he plans to announce Jerome Powell's replacement as Fed chief early next year. According to Reuters, Kevin Hesset has emerged as the leading candidate for Fed chairman. Hesset is expected to push for more interest rate cuts, which could put selling pressure on the USD against the CHF.

Wednesday's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report showed that private employers lost 32,000 jobs in November. This figure was lower than the market consensus forecast of 5,000 jobs and marked the largest monthly decline since early 2023.

Today, the market will be paying attention to the core PCE index data, which is likely to be a factor in market volatility. PCE data is important because it is the Fed's favorite inflation measure, and therefore often serves as a key indicator for the market to predict whether the Fed will raise, maintain, or lower interest rates. If PCE data shows higher-than-expected US inflation, it could reinforce market expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish or at least delay rate cuts. This could support USD strength, which in turn puts pressure on the CHF.

While the CHF currently appears to be a safe haven under most circumstances, the SNB's very low interest rate could limit further appreciation against the USD in the long term, especially if the Fed adopts a more aggressive policy stance.

The USDCHF price forecast for today is a lower support range of 0.7925 - 0.7900, with upper resistance at 0.8120 - 0.8260. If US economic data is disappointing or dovish sentiment, the USD could weaken, falling to 0.7980 - 0.7925. If US data is strong or global risk-on, the USD could rise to 0.8035 - 0.8120.

Silver is bullish amidst support from global supply-demand dynamics.

On Friday, December 6th, the XAGUSD pair rose to reach its previous high of 59,295. The price formed a long bullish candle with a top shadow. Silver opened at 57,100, then rose to a record high of 59,295, a low of 56,586, and a close of 58,276.

Fundamental factors supporting silver prices come from a combination of several factors that collectively create a strong silver price, including: industrial and investment demand, expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, global supply, and global macroeconomic factors.

Demand for silver from the industrial and investment sectors remains high, as silver remains attractive as a precious metal and is also a necessary metal in industries such as electronics, energy, solar panels, and others. Countries with the highest silver demand include China, which consistently leads global silver consumption. The United States is also among the top three global silver consumers. India is also a major silver consumer. Three countries themselves account for approximately 38% of global silver consumption.

China has significant silver demand from the industrial and manufacturing sectors, including electronics, infrastructure, and technology.

In the United States and India, silver demand stems from a combination of industrial demand, jewelry, investment, and consumer use. The growth of industrialization and the development of the technology/energy sector, including renewable energy, in these major countries supports the consumption of metals like silver.

The rise in silver prices is also supported by the Fed's monetary policy. The potential for interest rate easing also supports precious metals like gold and silver. Lower interest rates tend to lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.

In terms of supply, silver faces challenges, with availability limited by pressure on global supply/logistics. This supports high silver prices if demand remains solid.

Global macro factors such as USD fluctuations, inflation, geopolitical or global economic uncertainty also influence silver's appeal as a safe-haven alternative asset. Fundamentally, silver is expected to remain bullish in the short to medium term, but remains vulnerable to volatility.

The silver price forecast highlights key support at 54.00-55.00, with short-term support at 57.00-57.50. Key resistance is in the range of 59.33-62.00, and short-term resistance is in the range of 57.50-60.00.

USD/JPY rises, market awaits Fed rate decision

The USD/JPY pair rose on Monday, forming a bullish candlestick that crossed the middle band line from the downside. The USD/JPY price formed a high of 155.986, a low of 154.903, and a close of 155.874.

The USD/JPY rose on Monday, supported by a recovery in the USD and rising US Treasury yields, which prompted market repositioning ahead of the Fed's key decision on Wednesday. The DXY is currently at 99.082, slightly above a low of 98.794.

Pressure on the yen is becoming more evident as markets anticipate the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in the near future. This comes from improving wage data in Japan and expectations that domestic inflation remains quite strong. According to official data, nominal wages in Japan will increase by around 1.9% year-on-year in September 2025. Meanwhile, the national minimum wage was raised to around 1,121 yen per hour in April 2025.

While the yen is strengthening due to the BoJ's hawkish sentiment, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates at its meeting this week, which could put pressure on the USD. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut is 89.4%, with a forecast of a 25 basis point cut.

The narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the US has historically made the yen attractive as a relatively higher-yielding asset. On the Japanese economy, despite rising wages and potential monetary normalization, third-quarter data showed an economic contraction, a factor that has made some investors remain cautious about domestic risks in Japan. Weak data like this could weigh on the JPY as it reduces pressure on the BoJ to reverse its dovish policy stance.

The JPY is often considered a safe-haven currency. When global markets experience turmoil or uncertainty, such as a sharp decline in the stock market, investors will seek safe assets that can strengthen the JPY. Current market sentiment appears to be more risk-neutral to risk-on.

External and geopolitical risks are also variables, but their impact currently appears to be less significant than interest rate factors and monetary policy expectations.

However, news of a 7.6 magnitude earthquake that struck northeastern Japan has heightened tensions. According to Nikkei Asia, a tsunami warning was issued for Hokkaido, Aomori, and Iwate. This event immediately weighed on Japanese assets, while the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened as investors assessed the potential economic impact and the risk that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might delay an anticipated interest rate hike.

The combination of expectations of an interest rate hike in Japan and expectations of a Fed rate cut, plus a narrowing yield spread, could strengthen the Yen relative to the USD in the short to medium term. This could create downward pressure and open up room for further weakening from current levels.

Today, the US will release data on the economic calendar, as listed on Forexfactory. JOLTS job openings and ADP Weekly Employment Change are potential triggers for volatility. JOLTS is a key economic indicator and often has a significant impact on USD movements. JOLTS job openings are estimated at 7.14 million.

A bullish scenario for USD/JPY is if the BoJ remains dovish and the market perceives Fed rate cut expectations as too aggressive, or if upcoming US data is again strong. A bearish scenario is if interest rate cut expectations strengthen significantly, or safe-haven sentiment towards the JPY suddenly increases due to global uncertainty.

USD/JPY price movement forecast: lower support range 154.50 - 155.00, resistance range 156.30 - 156.80.

AUD/JPY surges amid risk-on market sentiment

The AUD/JPY currency pair surged on Tuesday, extending bullish sentiment since April 2025. The AUD/JPY low in April was around 86.045 and has since risen to a high of 104.395. Yesterday, the price drew a long-bodied bullish candle with only a small shadow. The price formed a high of 104.395, a low of 103.001, and a close of 104.163. The price surge pushed AUD/JPY out of the upper band.

AUD/JPY mostly acts as a risk/carry indicator: When the yield spread between Australia and Japan widens and risk-on, AUD/JPY tends to rise. Conversely, when risk-off sentiment occurs, where investors seek safe assets, the yen tends to strengthen, and the AUD/JPY weakens. Recently, the spread and correlation with equities have supported a higher AUD/JPY, but warnings are emerging from the bond market, which is beginning to show risk.

The current bullish sentiment in AUDJPY is being influenced by a combination of the RBA's hawkish signals, rising wages in Japan, and risk-on market sentiment driving carry flows.

At its last meeting, the RBA held interest rates at 3.6% but signaled that a cut was imminent and that inflation risks remained. This statement supported the strengthening of the AUD.

The NAB survey showed that Australian business activity weakened slightly, but capacity utilization remained high, which kept inflationary pressures at bay. This means that the policy rate is not automatically easing, supporting the yield differential in favor of the AUD.

In Japan, recent data showed a rise in nominal wages. This wage increase tends to support a slight strengthening of the JPY in the medium term, but the short-term impact depends on risk sentiment.

The yield/carry trade remains the primary driver of the AUD/JPY pair. The RBA's higher interest rate compared to the BoJ's encourages investors to implement carry trades to obtain higher yields. This capital inflow pushes the AUD/JPY price up. The wider the interest rate differential, the stronger the upward momentum.

Geopolitical factors or unexpected events, such as the recent major earthquake in Japan, have triggered temporary safe-haven demand, which could temporarily depress the AUD/JPY, although the fundamental impact is more complex.

The combination of the RBA's hawkish tone and the current yield spread supports bullish sentiment, but risks to the yen as a safe-haven currency and the possibility of a technical correction could limit upside. Catalysts to monitor include Australian economic data releases such as employment, wages, retail sales, jobless claims, and the unemployment rate. Japanese data releases, such as the CPI, along with global bond developments or the Fed's decision, could trigger sentiment that could trigger flash movements.

Risks to be wary of include unexpected changes in the RBA or BoJ's tone, global risk-off shocks that could trigger a surge in yen demand, and the bond market. If global yields move sharply, carry trades could unwind quickly.

The forecast price range for AUDJPY is for key support roughly the 102.40-103.00 range, with key resistance in the 104.40-105.50 range if risk-on sentiment persists.

No — the RBA did not signal a cut was imminent; at its December meeting it held the cash rate at 3.60% and its commentary leaned more cautious/hawkish, even flagging the risk of future rate rises if inflation proves persistent.

NZD/USD rises to 0.58247 as the Fed cuts interest rates

The New Zealand dollar, a commodity currency and considered risk-sensitive, surged in Wednesday's trading session, forming a long-bodied bullish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom. The NZD/USD price formed a high of 0.58247, a low of 0.57611, and a close of 0.58155.

The recent rise of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar from its low a few weeks earlier indicates buying interest in the NZD. This likely stemmed from expectations of the Fed's easing and the RBNZ's increasingly neutral stance.

The Fed recently cut interest rates at its December 2025 meeting to a range of 3.50% - 3.75%. This was the third rate cut in 2025, indicating the Fed's response to economic weakness, particularly the slowing US labor market. But even though they lowered interest rates, the Fed signaled that they would not cut interest rates further quickly, with future decisions depending on inflation data, employment, and general economic conditions.

The impact of the interest rate cut was that the USD weakened against other currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Low interest rates make USD-denominated assets less attractive than before, which can support other currencies.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, showed significant weakness, dropping to its lowest level since November at 98.592.

Another impact of the Fed's interest rate cut is lower borrowing costs in the US - companies and investors may be more willing to borrow/invest, which could encourage capital flows to emerging markets, commodities, and risk-on currencies like the New Zealand Dollar.

However, because inflation remains high and the Fed remains cautious about overly easing, the long-term impact remains dependent on data developments. If inflation rises again, there is a risk that the Fed will have to tighten again.

On the other hand, New Zealand's economy is showing signs of weakness. In the second quarter of 2025, quarterly GDP contracted by 0.9%, much worse than expected. Broadly speaking, the economy has contracted in the last five quarters.

On the labor side, the unemployment rate rose, indicating a weakening labor market. Inflation soared to around 3.0% in the third quarter of 2025, above the RBNZ's inflation target of 1-3%. The RBNZ also stated that there is spare capacity in the economy, meaning that many resources are not yet fully utilized.

The RBNZ will aggressively cut interest rates in mid-2025 to stimulate the economy, such as a 50 basis point cut in October 2025, and in November 2025, they cut the OCR again to 2.25%, the lowest level since 2022. However, after this cut, the massive easing is likely over. They expect the OCR to remain stable over the medium term, meaning no further cuts are expected at this time.

The RBNZ expects inflation to fall by mid-2026 to around 2%, far from the current level of 3%. However, they will remain responsive to the real economy, and subsequent policy may change depending on global and domestic economic conditions.

Forecasted NZDUSD price range: key support range: 0.56200 - 055500, key resistance around 0.5830 - 0.58500. Consolidation or sideways movement range: 0.5700 - 05760.

EUR/JPY Extends Gains Amid Cautious ECB Stance

The EUR/JPY cross currency pair on Thursday formed a small-bodied bullish candle with a slight bottom shadow. The EUR/JPY price formed a high of 182.745, a low of 181.875, and a close of 182.654. Throughout 2025, the JPY is likely to weaken against the euro.

Fundamental analysis of the EUR/JPY is largely influenced by monetary policy and the economic outlook between the Eurozone and Japan.

The ECB reportedly maintained a cautious but confident stance. This stance suggests they have not yet fully shifted to a dovish or easing policy, despite the cautious tone. There are reports of optimism in the eurozone economy and positive macroeconomic conditions, which tend to support a more hawkish ECB stance and benefit the Euro. A more hawkish ECB stance, or a delay in easing policy, will maintain the Euro's appeal.

In Japan, speculation of a BoJ interest rate hike is increasing. This speculation is fueled by previous comments from the BoJ Governor, which have revived rate hike bets. This is a factor that could strengthen the JPY.

On the other hand, Japan's reportedly gloomy economic outlook and fiscal concerns have weighed on the JPY, making it the worst-performing currency among the G8. A downward revision to GDP also put pressure on the JPY.

The EURJPY has recently been moving directionlessly despite the ECB's cautious tone and speculation of a BoJ rate hike, demonstrating the power of the cross. The EURJPY had reached a multi-year peak around 182.746 and was struggling near a long-term high around 182.60, driven by the euro's resilience and the JPY's weakness before the BoJ speculation intensified.

Due to two opposing fundamental factors—the relatively better economic outlook for the eurozone versus speculation about a BoJ interest rate hike—the market may exhibit high volatility, but overall, it is likely to consolidate near recent highs, awaiting confirmation from data or subsequent BoJ or ECB announcements.

In addition to internal factors in the eurozone and Japan, global risk sentiment related to the Fed's decision and geopolitical risks can also influence market risk appetite, potentially strengthening the JPY as a safe-haven currency if sentiment worsens.

Today's movements are expected to be sensitive to revised economic data on Eurozone inflation and Japanese retail sales. If European inflation rises, the EURJPY could rise. If Japanese retail sales are particularly strong, the JPY could strengthen, pushing the EURJPY lower.

EURJPY price forecast: Main support is around 178.80 - 179.74 if bearish momentum emerges, and daily support is around 180.00 - 180.70. Main resistance is around 183.00 - 183.68, and daily resistance is around 182.00 - 182.50.

Bit late for that prediction!

USD/CAD is under bearish pressure due to divergent monetary policies and US dollar weakness.

The Canadian dollar, a commodity currency, tends to strengthen amid divergent monetary policies and US dollar weakness. On Friday, the USD/CAD pair formed a small-bodied bearish candle with a shadow at its top. The price formed a high of 1.37946, a low of 1.37534, and a close of 1.37626.

The Bank of Canada appears to be maintaining a cautious stance, stating that interest rates should remain at their current level in the short term. The BoC held the interest rate 25 basis points (bps) at 2.25%, indicating it is likely to wait for evidence of declining inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed recently cut its interest rate by 25 bps on December 10th to 3.50%-3.75%, meaning the USD/CAD interest rate spread is narrowing and could potentially weaken the USD. However, the Fed remains cautious, as the market is still weighing the prospect of further cuts.

As a commodity currency, the CAD is also influenced by oil price performance, as Canada relies heavily on oil exports. WTI oil prices are currently around $57 per barrel, relatively stable but down from their peak. The weakening oil price is reducing support for the CAD.

The key economic data that traders are focusing on this week is the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released today, and has the potential to be a catalyst for the Canadian dollar. If the data is stronger than expected, the CAD could strengthen.

The differential between the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rates following the Fed's rate cut remains favorable for the USD, with the Fed funds holding a larger portion than the BoC. Therefore, there is no expectation of dramatic CAD strengthening unless the BoC raises rates or Canadian data is particularly strong.

The US dollar remains under pressure due to weaker-than-expected US employment and growth data. Risk-on sentiment in global markets also often reduces the USD's appeal as a safe-haven currency. The CAD, a risk-sensitive commodity currency, is supported. However, if signs of we economic weakness accompany the cut, the USD as a safe-haven currency may remain strong through volatility in safe-haven flows, a situation currently neutral.

The US dollar index is currently below 100. The DXY reached its lowest level since November at 98.134 from a high of 100.395. The US dollar index is often used as a benchmark to measure the performance of the USD against six other major currencies.

The forecast price range for USDCAD is: key support is around 1.37500 - 1.37000, and key resistance is around 1.38000 - 1.39000. If USD weakness persists and market sentiment continues to digest policy differences, USDCAD could retest and potentially break through the 1.37500 support level and move towards 1.37000. If the USD finds technical support and unexpectedly stronger-than-expected US data arrives, it could push the price back towards 1.38000-1.38700.

WTI oil prices fell again below the $57 level.

Oil prices declined yesterday, continuing the downtrend for three consecutive days. The XTIUSD oil price formed a bearish candle and managed to break the lower band of 57, falling below 56.16. WTI oil prices formed a high of 57.49, a low of 56.16, and a close of 56.41.

It should be noted that the XTIUSD pair is highly vulnerable to global risks, particularly those related to oil supply and demand, as well as US monetary policy.

Based on previous reports in early December, OPEC+ likely maintained its production quotas. Technically, this decision is supportive of oil prices because it limits supply. However, concerns about oversupply and optimism about a Russia-Ukraine peace deal are limiting the commodity.

Data on US oil inventories and refinery activity, as reported by the EIA weekly report through December 5, shows refiners are still operating at high levels. The stock and product flow picture should be closely monitored in the next EIA release. Weekly crude oil inventories can still be a driver of short-term volatility.

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, with a target range of 3.50% - 3.75%. Interest rate cuts typically weaken the USD and tend to support oil prices traded in USD.

Oil prices are vulnerable to unpredictable geopolitical factors. US action against Venezuelan exports creates short-term risks. The US Coast Guard's seizure of an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, suppressing Venezuelan exports, creates the risk of regional supply shortages triggering short-term price increases when market disruptions occur. However, the global market remains well-supplied, so the impact could be limited unless a major escalation occurs.

Fundamental oil price drivers include the weakening of the USD following the Fed's rate cut, coupled with disruptions to Venezuelan supply, which could boost speculative oil demand. On the other hand, OPEC+'s production restraint, coupled with reports of a projected surplus in 2026 from several market participants, poses a risk of oversupply if demand weakens. Furthermore, Chinese demand is expected to be stable or not experience a major surge.

If this week's EIA release shows a buildup in crude oil inventories or a decline in refinery processing, it could further pressure the WTI price. Conversely, a decline in inventories or product demand would support prices.

Today, traders are focused on the release of key US economic data that could potentially catalyze USD movements, such as the NFP, unemployment rate, and services PMI.

Oil price forecast: key support range: $52-$55, key resistance range: $60-$65 per barrel. The intraday range is estimated at $55-$60, and the medium-term range is estimated at $52-$65, stemming from a combination of the Fed's interest rate cuts, OPEC+'s output restraint, and the prospect of a surplus in 2026.

Gold consolidates near the psychological level of $4,300

Gold price movement over the past three days has tended to be limited near the upper band line. After reaching a high of $4,353, the price fell again, fluctuating within a range of $4,271 to $4,353. Yesterday, gold formed a small bullish candle with short wicks at the top and bottom. Gold opened at $4,306, with a high of $4,334, and a low of $4,271, closing at $4,310.

Gold prices are influenced by several key factors, such as Fed sentiment and US interest rates. The market continues to monitor signals from the Fed. If US economic data, such as employment and inflation, indicate that the Fed will ease policy in the future, this tends to weaken the US dollar and support gold.

Recent US data released on December 16th showed mixed results. The economy added more people than expected to the labor force in November, but the Unemployment Rate rose to its highest level since 2021. Although the report confirmed further easing, expectations for an interest rate cut in January 2026 remain low at around 25%, as shown by Capital Edge data.

Meanwhile, US retail sales showed that American consumer spending remained slightly strong, with retail sales unchanged in October. The report indicated that people faced higher prices for food, furniture, and various other imported goods due to Trump's tariffs.

Traders will continue to monitor other US data, such as jobless claims due Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also a market focus, as gold is traded in USD. Strengthening or weakening of the USD can influence gold price movements. The DXY is currently rebounding to 98.203 after dropping to 97.869. The DXY sentiment is bearish below its 20-day moving average (MA).

Gold is a safe-haven asset that is also influenced by geopolitical factors. Global geopolitical or economic uncertainty tends to drive demand for gold. Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine war remain uncertain, although talks stalled after Kyiv drafted a 20-point plan that the Kremlin has not yet accepted, temporarily dampening demand for safe assets.

In talks supported by the US and the European Union, there has been tangible progress toward ending the war. Ukraine is considered willing to abandon its ambitions to join NATO as part of a Western security guarantee, but refuses to cede territory. Western sanctions against Russia remain in place and are impacting the global economy, including the energy and commodity sectors. This conflict is a factor contributing to global market uncertainty.

Conclusion: Gold is currently consolidating around the psychological level of $4,300 and seeking new catalysts. Traders will await US economic data and the market's interpretation of the Fed's monetary policy outlook.

The gold price range forecast, based on technical analysis, indicates consolidation. Major support is estimated to be in the range of $4,270-$4,250, and major resistance is in the range of $4,350-$4,380.