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  • #18,361
  • Dec 8, 2025 2:19pm Dec 8, 2025 2:19pm
eurusd h1
update

1.16420
If price climbs ABOVE it →
→ CHOCH UP
→ first confirmation of a bullish reversal
→ the wedge begins to expand upward
→ the market will go to test:
R: 1.16578
R: 1.16720


If price REJECTS 1.16420 →
→ continuation inside the wedge
→ another test of the lower red boundary
→ possible BOS DOWN below 1.16277 → drop to 1.16175

RANGE 1.16420 – 1.16277
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,362
  • Dec 8, 2025 2:33pm Dec 8, 2025 2:33pm
EURUSD H1
full patterns - rising and falling wedges, wedge in wedge

➤ If we break ABOVE 1.16420 → micro CHOCH UP → rise toward 1.16578
➤ If we break ABOVE 1.16578 → the rising wedge is invalid → rise toward 1.16720
➤ If we break ABOVE 1.16720 → BOS UP of the entire structure

➤ If we drop below 1.16277 → BOS DOWN → bearish confirmed → target 1.16175 → 1.15980

pic2 - H4
TRENDLINES
H4 BEARISH STRUCTURE IS STILL VALID.
All bullish wedges on H1 are only corrections.
As long as the H4 resistance does not break:
1.16578 – 1.16722

We’re waiting for Wednesday, the Federal Funds Rate.
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,363
  • Dec 8, 2025 3:51pm Dec 8, 2025 3:51pm
DXY H4

The rising wedge is valid.
It is a bearish pattern
It indicates that DXY may continue in its downtrend
And that would give EURUSD support for an upward move

Key level for confirmation: BREAKOUT DOWN
Confirmation is:
A break of the lower green diagonal
→ this means BOS DOWN
→ and DXY would continue toward 98.50 – 98.20

When does the wedge fail?
If DXY:
breaks the upper green line
makes a BOS UP above the last lower high
→ then the wedge FAILS and the move up continues.
BUT on the chart it still doesn’t look like strong bullish momentum — the structure is weak.
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,364
  • Dec 8, 2025 8:37pm Dec 8, 2025 8:37pm
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} On the 15 minute and hourly charts, it does look like a bearish break through the red line support, now turned resistance. {image} {image}
Red line resistance didn't hold, but price is still under the purple line, so sideways for now.
I'm currently hedged equally with 2 long and 2 short positions.
Waiting for breakout. Don't know which way.
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You cannot fail if you never give up.
  • #18,365
  • Dec 8, 2025 10:29pm Dec 8, 2025 10:29pm
The EUR/USD recovered but remained below the 1.1657–1.1672 resistance levels, attempting to rise and stabilize above the channel again. Support levels at 1.1632 and 1.1616 are preventing a further drop toward 1.1600/08 and 1.1591

Daily volatility (range) 39 pips

Significant news - US ADP Weekly Employment Change & JOLTS Job Openings.

Have a great day!

4H
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  • #18,366
  • Dec 8, 2025 10:32pm Dec 8, 2025 10:32pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} I am on shopping spree, buying into weakness. 1.1560 will be my check point to cut some longs loose, if seen. I interpret price action as the movers pushing down to accumulate before THE rate cut. Specs getting it wrong of the FED. They will be more focused on jobs than inflation this go. Maybe inflation will matter next round. NB
If the big institutions are indeed accumulating specifically for a dovish Fed pivot to save jobs, then these lower prices are a gift.

I wait for some lower but will have to follow up if price doesn't drop to 1.1600-1.1591
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #18,367
  • Dec 8, 2025 11:53pm Dec 8, 2025 11:53pm
EURUSD breaks below the parallel channel and now we are retesting the channel ... Let's see wether the channel lower trendline work as resistance ... if it works as resistance and stops the bulls then i will quickly switch to shorts ... EU on daily is above 20 and 50 SMA which is good for bulls and we might soon see a bullish crossover of these two Moving averages which would be good for bulls ... RSI is at 58.20 on daily which suggest there as still room for bullish momentum..
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  • #18,368
  • Dec 9, 2025 5:15am Dec 9, 2025 5:15am
EU has been consolidating in this triangle after we broke below the ascending channel ... if we break below the triangle then we might retest the 1.15910 support zone ...
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  • #18,369
  • Dec 9, 2025 5:20am Dec 9, 2025 5:20am
Quoting Meer-Shayhak
EU has been consolidating in this triangle after we broke below the ascending channel ... if we break below the triangle then we might retest the 1.15910 support zone ... {image}
IF we break above the triangle the we would target the upper resistance line of the channel
  • #18,370
  • Edited 6:51am Dec 9, 2025 6:33am | Edited 6:51am
interesting price action - slightly tested 4h SIBI above a few days ago. Seems price is in a consolidation range on the 4h timeframe. For now the last candles closed inside the OC range. Waiting how price will react to news at 10:00 NY time.
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  • #18,371
  • Dec 9, 2025 7:19am Dec 9, 2025 7:19am
Bias is short although we are directionless. ADP employment created a new weak low coming in a few minutes ago.

Will JOLTS break us out of the range? Not holding my breath

I'm looking at 1.16460

Good luck everyone!
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Easy Does it.
  • #18,372
  • Edited 7:53am Dec 9, 2025 7:38am | Edited 7:53am
Update: 1.16430 for bears
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Easy Does it.
  • #18,373
  • Dec 9, 2025 8:00am Dec 9, 2025 8:00am
Quoting 7154Superman
{quote} Not yet. 4 hour candle needs a clean break, close and hold below the red line at 1.1640 area to make it short term bearish. Another break, close and hold below the red line at 1.1585 area is medium term bearish. Finally, a break below the blue line at 1.1500 area on the daily chart is long term bearish. {image} {image}
not sure how to post chart but I draw the uptrend since 25nov on hr 4 chart from there I see a breakout.

in addition it’s LH & LL
was curious about your bullish bias
thanks for letting me know what you see. I’ll dig into it and research
  • #18,374
  • Dec 9, 2025 8:13am Dec 9, 2025 8:13am
Quoting Zeiferz
{quote} not sure how to post chart but I draw the uptrend since 25nov on hr 4 chart from there I see a breakout. in addition it’s LH & LL was curious about your bullish bias thanks for letting me know what you see. I’ll dig into it and research
take a screenshot and when posting a new reply just press Ctrl + V
  • #18,375
  • Dec 9, 2025 9:29am Dec 9, 2025 9:29am
got an entry at the previous day´s low manipulation. 2m breaker block inside a 5m breaker. PDL manipulation was also the consolidation´s manipulation.

Set SL to breakeven, TP at high 04.12.2025. Original SL 6 pips.
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  • #18,376
  • Dec 9, 2025 9:53am Dec 9, 2025 9:53am
Quoting DonEtienne28
got an entry at the previous day´s low manipulation. 2m breaker block inside a 5m breaker. PDL manipulation was also the consolidation´s manipulation. Set SL to breakeven, TP at high 04.12.2025. Original SL 6 pips. {image}
ict trader
Hi I'm Aayush.j
  • #18,377
  • Dec 9, 2025 10:24am Dec 9, 2025 10:24am
The deep buying is continuing and eu is still ranging but below 1.1657 and the trendlines!

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Quoting Js3mwtRc
The deep buying is continuing and eu is still ranging but below 1.1657 and the trendlines! {image}
Have to leave!
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #18,378
  • Dec 9, 2025 3:13pm Dec 9, 2025 3:13pm
eurusd h1
TRENDLINES

Until today we had wedges inside wedges, both falling and rising wedges, but today a change occurred.
The last green trendline no longer has the same slope → it is NOT a continuation of the rising wedge.

And therefore:
This is not a classic H1 rising-wedge continuation pattern.

The trendline (the green one on the right) that was drawn as the last one has:
– a less steep angle
– it is no longer parallel with the previous TLs
– it no longer forms a continuation pattern, but a trendline change pattern

“This is no longer a wedge.”
“This no longer creates the same bearish pressure as the previous waves.”

Loss of TL steepness = loss of downtrend momentum.
When a trendline “softens,” it means:
– sellers are losing strength,
– the downtrend is weakening,
– the pressure is balancing out.

This is not a rising wedge → it is a change of trend angle.
This means that:
– the previous TLs were part of one cycle,
– this last TL belongs to a new cycle,
– and that cycle may be preparation for a retest / reversal / BOS UP.

MY ASSESSMENT:
This is no longer a pattern for a clean short.
It is a phase of a weakening downtrend.
It is room for a pullback upward (at least short-term).
H1/H4 confluence suggests UP rather than DOWN.

A short makes sense only:
below 1.16175 (Main S)
or after rejection of the main R 1.16590 – 1.16780
or when the trendline slope “straightens” again into a steeper pattern
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,379
  • Edited 7:38pm Dec 9, 2025 7:27pm | Edited 7:38pm
Quoting Zeiferz
{quote} not sure how to post chart but I draw the uptrend since 25nov on hr 4 chart from there I see a breakout. in addition it’s LH & LL was curious about your bullish bias thanks for letting me know what you see. I’ll dig into it and research
See here how the purple line held the price down then red line held it up. I was sideways, not sure which way, but now I'm starting to lean bullish for FOMC tomorrow and the rest of this week. But of course I could be wrong.
I'm equally hedged though. Most likely price action will remain choppy both ways between 1.15 and 1.20 until the end of the year at least, so it's a good time to scalp, if you do it carefully.
Once I draw a trend line, I do not move them. I only delete them once they become irrelevant.
This way you can see how price reacts to them in real time.
I'm seeing price reacting to my lines all the time from both sides. They seem to work like a fenced barrier. It holds the price action until enough pressure is reached for it to break through.
The candle wicks are just stretching the fence, not breaking through. Once a candle closes and price holds on the other side, and the line begins to resist the price from coming back through, then you can call it a break out.
I develop these trend lines based on consistent algorithmic trend patterns that are being developed along the way. I have always seen these lines respected at least to some extent.
It's very interesting to set some lines, then just watch the price action treating it like an actual fence. It really gives me clarity on how to trade it.
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You cannot fail if you never give up.
  • #18,380
  • Dec 9, 2025 10:37pm Dec 9, 2025 10:37pm
The EUR/USD stayed below 1.1657 and stalled lower before the 1.1608/00 zone, with more support lower at the 1.1591 and 1.1570 levels. I expect the pair to trade with low volatility until we receive the expected 0.25% cut from the Fed later today, and I believe resistance at 1.1557 and 1.1572 will hold.

Daily volatility (range) 38 pips

Significant news - Fed Interest Rate Decision

Have a great day!
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