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Trichet and ECB Rate increase.

  • Poll

  • what will the ECB do?
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  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 6, 2006 9:02am Dec 6, 2006 9:02am
I am torn between potential euro buying leading up to the likely E U rate increase tommorow and the NFP expectations that may have been created by the ADP report. Maybe we will see some euro buying up till the trichet speech and then some dollar buyers come in after the reaction the Trichet has played out.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #2
  • Dec 6, 2006 2:09pm Dec 6, 2006 2:09pm
Big boyz are in play now. Everyone trying to be in their seats before the music stops. Check out the pirce action on short 3 or 5 minute charts.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #3
  • Dec 6, 2006 2:14pm Dec 6, 2006 2:14pm
haha yeah the game begins. this should be a big report, since many are calling for a rate increase but still some say there will be a hold on rates. anytime there is disagreement about a rate hike that seems to stir up a lot of volatility because so many people get themselves positioned.
Relax and be happy.
  • #4
  • Dec 6, 2006 4:47pm Dec 6, 2006 4:47pm
A rate increase is a 100% certainty - Trichet announced that (in his coded language) last month. It all turns on whether Trichet signals more rate increases to come or not. Again his coded language is easy to read into if you've been following it for the past year. I think the market is expecting hawkish comments, won't get them and the EURO falls big time.
  • #5
  • Dec 6, 2006 5:00pm Dec 6, 2006 5:00pm
Sorry if this is a silly question - if the rates are raised does that the mean the euro will go up>
mama
  • #6
  • Dec 6, 2006 5:07pm Dec 6, 2006 5:07pm
Quoting notouch
A rate increase is a 100% certainty - Trichet announced that (in his coded language) last month. It all turns on whether Trichet signals more rate increases to come or not. Again his coded language is easy to read into if you've been following it for the past year. I think the market is expecting hawkish comments, won't get them and the EURO falls big time.
Why didn't he just make at 50 point increase last time instead of waiting if he's so sure he would have to?
  • #7
  • Dec 6, 2006 5:09pm Dec 6, 2006 5:09pm
Quoting Mama007
Sorry if this is a silly question - if the rates are raised does that the mean the euro will go up>
not all the time but most often, it's supposed to. depend on the comment too
  • #8
  • Dec 6, 2006 5:13pm Dec 6, 2006 5:13pm
Nitman, because that would be destabilising. Steadily increasing rates by .25% every 2 or 3 months is what has been happening. He signalled last month that rates would increase this month. It's no secret. The market only reacts when something unexpected happens so the market won't react to a rate increase as it's already 100% priced in. It all depends on what Trichet says.
  • #9
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:07am Dec 7, 2006 6:07am
investica just posted some good analysis on this...

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ad.php?t=11039
Relax and be happy.
  • #10
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:15am Dec 7, 2006 6:15am
just posted a poll, will be interesting to see if we can call this one right
Relax and be happy.
  • #11
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:18am Dec 7, 2006 6:18am
Will it be euro+ if the rate hiked today?
And if, it is maintained, what will happen to euro?
Hello World
  • #12
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:20am Dec 7, 2006 6:20am
well since there is such a debate over this, if there is a raise euro will appriciate, and if there is a hold it will probably tank. the reason is that the statement is going to prove some people wrong, since there are traders on both sides of the fence.
Relax and be happy.
  • #13
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:24am Dec 7, 2006 6:24am
Will the rate decision or the Trichet testimony be the important one?
Should the Trichet testimony for 2007 fail to support the rate hike?
Hello World
  • #14
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:26am Dec 7, 2006 6:26am
Show me any analyst who has said that ECB rates won't rise today. All the Reuters analysts are saying they will increase, unsurprisingly considering Trichet announced the fact last month. 1245 is when they hike and the market won't even blip.
  • #15
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:31am Dec 7, 2006 6:31am
Quoting notouch
Show me any analyst who has said that ECB rates won't rise today. All the Reuters analysts are saying they will increase, unsurprisingly considering Trichet announced the fact last month. 1245 is when they hike and the market won't even blip.
So, the market reaction is not going to be much ?
It's predicted anyway, isn't it
Hello World
  • #16
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:33am Dec 7, 2006 6:33am
Quoting notouch
Show me any analyst who has said that ECB rates won't rise today. All the Reuters analysts are saying they will increase, unsurprisingly considering Trichet announced the fact last month. 1245 is when they hike and the market won't even blip.
there are some bberg guys calling for a hold, but for some reason i cant find them anymore LOL. maybe your right on this, but i still think there will be traders on both sides of this debate (although the "hold" side is looking fairly week).
Relax and be happy.
  • #17
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:36am Dec 7, 2006 6:36am
Quoting notouch
Show me any analyst who has said that ECB rates won't rise today. All the Reuters analysts are saying they will increase, unsurprisingly considering Trichet announced the fact last month. 1245 is when they hike and the market won't even blip.
then, if so, not many movement will we have tonight, unless any comments that gives a room for USD to continue it's retracement.
  • #18
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:38am Dec 7, 2006 6:38am
Quoting merlin
there are some bberg guys calling for a hold, but for some reason i cant find them anymore LOL. maybe your right on this, but i still think there will be traders on both sides of this debate (although the "hold" side is looking fairly week).
In case there is no rate hike, will it undermine euro?
Hello World
  • #19
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:39am Dec 7, 2006 6:39am
The debate is not what happens today but what will happen next year - that's why the Trichet press conference is key. Will Trichet signal rates will rise in February or March or give no hint? If he signals March or gives no hint the Euro will drop. There are a lot Euro longs who may want to take profit before NFP.
  • #20
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:44am Dec 7, 2006 6:44am
Raised to 3.5 % !!
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