Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Gold Forecast: The Old Monetary Metals Took a Break This Week

Mark J Lundeen

October 26, 2025

The Dow Jones is doing well, meaning that, like a sponge, it (the stock market) is soaking up a good amount of the monetary inflation circulating in the economy. This week, the Dow Jones closed at a new all-time high (BEV Zero = 0.0%) in its BEV chart below.
Also, on Friday’s close, it closed for the first time over 47,000. Are we on the way to 50,000 for the Dow Jones? I suspect we are, but there is something so wrong with that; 50K on a market index that started its current bull market advance in August 1982, below 800—or 0.8K, for those who follow the market in the Metric system.

Well, I don’t think we’ll see Dow Jones at 50K until sometime next year. If then, as there are a lot of things that could stop that from happening. So, what else is there to say about its Bear’s Eye View chart below? Let’s keep it simple; as long as the Dow Jones remains in scoring position, between its BEV 0.0% & -5% lines (within the red rectangle), the Dow Jones remains in a bullish advance. That being so, we should expect additional all-time highs in the Dow Jones in the weeks to come.

As the Dow Jones is my proxy for the broad stock market, I’m actually expecting the stock market, as a whole, to continue doing good, for as long as the Dow Jones remains in scoring position.


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The Bear’s Eye View of the Dow Jones above, plotting the past forty-five years in terms of new all-time highs, and percentage claw-backs from those new all-time highs, we see where this bull market began; at the star, in August 1982.

Since August 1982, we have the four major market corrections in the Dow Jones, claw-backs from a BEV Zero of greater than 35%. The 53% claw-back in March 2009 was the second deepest claw-back from an all-time high since the Dow Jones was first published in February 1885. A claw-back exceeded only by the 89% claw-back in July 1932. But for this bull market, such a decline proved to be only a bump in the road towards Dow Jones 50K.

I placed a black oval over our current advance in this massive bull market. Within this oval, since November 2023, when the Dow Jones first entered into scoring position, it has made sixty-eight new all-time highs, or BEV Zeros in the BEV chart above.

Now, slide your eyes to the left, along the red rectangle that highlights scoring position since 1980, to identify every other advance in this massive, forty-five-year bull market. Look at the cluster of BEV Zeros spanning from 1989 to 2000. Wow! What happened there? I can answer that question with one word: AlanGreenspan. Okay, Alan Greenspan is actually two words, and the name for the FOMC Idiot Primate par excellence.

No one, I mean no one, could inflate market valuations like Alan Greenspan could. There were times he would testify before Congress, mumbling total nonsense for hours on end, and everyone knew it. No one cared, including the Members of Congress, who Alan bullshitted to for six hours, as stock market valuations inflated during the entire time Greenspan mumbled nonsense.

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Let’s take a quick look at the past forty-five years for the Dow Jones, in terms of new all-time highs, and percentage claw-backs from those all-time highs, in the frequency table below. Since 1980, the Dow Jones has seen 891 new all-time highs, or 7.71% of the 11,549 daily closings in this sample, as seen in this table’s 0% row. Daily closings in scoring position, found in this table’s -0.001% row, were 4,755, or 41.17% of daily closings in the sample.

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Add those two rows together to see that the Dow Jones has been advancing in a bull market for 48.88% of all daily closings since 1980. Making the past forty-five years in the stock market, a humongous inflationary bubble in the American financial system. This bubble has a rendezvous with destiny; a day it will go bust. A day when all the King’s horses and all the King’s men won’t be able to put it back together again.

Not that I know when this party ends, though I do know it can end only in tears. But I admit it, this was fun while it lasted.
Next is the Dow Jones in daily bars. This week, I had to increase this chart’s scaling to 47,500 to fit the Dow Jones closing over 47,000 on it. How long before I have to increase its scaling to 48,000?


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Now on to my table listing the BEV values for the major market indexes I follow. The stock market closed the week with remarkable strength, with nine of the 20 indexes closing at new all-time highs, and the next seven within scoring position, less than 5% from their last all-time high.
Hey? What happened to the XAU, an index that was making new all-time highs on a regular basis very recently, closed this week way down at #20, with a BEV of -13.28%! Is something wrong going on here with the gold and silver miners?

I don’t think so. First thing to keep in mind: gold and silver bullion, as well as the companies that mine gold and silver, have few friends in Washington or on Wall Street. To make it simple, if you are investing in gold, silver, or the gold miners in the XAU below, you are betting against the inflationary schemes of the “policy makers,” and that big bubble I noted above. Some very powerful people don’t like investors doing that.

Unlike the stock and bond markets, markets that receive considerable support from Washington and Wall Street, the old monetary metals, being the old monetary metals, are seen as a report card on the American monetary system. When they decoupled the dollar from its $35 gold peg in August 1971, gold was officially at $35 an ounce, but traded in the gold market at $43.60.

What is gold trading for now? On Monday this week, it made its latest all-time high of $4,356, about 100X more than gold traded for in August 1971. For Washington’s report card on “Monetary Policy,” an increase in the price of gold by a factor of 100 since 1971, is a failing grade; a * Big Red F * for all the academics managing “monetary policy” for the US Dollar.

But few see that yet. But for those of us who do see it, we like gold, silver, and their miners as long-term holds in our investment portfolios. Look at the XAU below. After an advance like that since April, a correction is something only to be expected. If, for the next few months, the XAU took a break from its current advance, maybe going down to 250 or lower, I’m not going to lose any sleep over that.


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Since the XAU was first published in December 1983, it has been a volatile index, as seen in its BEV chart above.
I’m just a market enthusiast. I make no claims of market certainty for what is to come in the future. But, over the years, I’ve done alright. After making that disclaimer, looking at the Bear’s Eye View for the XAU above, if it can keep above its BEV -25% line during this correction, or 247 in dollar terms, I’d be happy with that.


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In this week’s performance table above, gold, silver and the XAU remain firmly in the top three positions, with nothing else close to taking them out. 2025 has been an outstanding year for precious metal assets. If following the gains seen so far this year, we now see a significant pullback in these markets, it might actually be a healthy market development.

As I haven’t covered the COMEX gold inventories since last May, this seems like a good time now. What catches my eye on this chart below is how little gold was held at the COMEX during the 1969 to 1980 gold bull market. If my memory serves me right, there wasn’t a COMEX futures gold market until sometime after gold was decoupled from its $35 gold peg. Why would there be a need to hedge future price swings in gold if gold were pegged at $35 an ounce?

Again, trusting my memory, before August 1971, the futures markets were exclusively agricultural, as varied rainfall over farmland made hedging price swings for grain and cattle, for farmers, a necessity. Industrial commodities like copper, interest rates, and FOREX were unnecessary when the dollar was fixed to gold. After the dollar was decoupled from its $35 gold peg in 1971, everything changed.


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Anyway, the gold held at the COMEX since gold’s second bull market began in 2001 below, has increased significantly. Keep in mind that for every ounce of physical gold held by the COMEX, seen below, there are multiple ounces of gold sold in the paper futures markets.

I’ve seen credible people claim that for every ounce of gold seen below, 50 to 100 ounces are shorted (sold) into the futures markets, where today the price of gold is actually set. If it weren’t for this tremendous supply of digital gold flowing from the COMEX into gold’s futures market, where would the price of physical gold be today?

That the price of gold is rising, as it has been since November 2023, when it entered into scoring position in its BEV chart, despite this avalanche of paper gold from the COMEX market, is very remarkable.

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Above is the Bear’s Eye View of the gold inventories at the COMEX storage facilities. The data is the same as seen in the top chart, just looking at it in the Bear’s Eye View.

During the 1980 to 2001 bear market in gold, gold inventories declined by over 90%. Why was that? Because by 1997, with the rising stock market, no one gave a damn about gold. Truth be told, for most investors, that is still true today.

But maybe most people are wrong about gold and the stock market. Below I’ve plotted the indexed values for gold (Red Plot) and the Dow Jones (Blue Plot), with 05 January 1980 = 1.00. Based on gold’s last all-time high on Monday this week, since 1970, gold’s advance during these fifty-five years has been twice that of the Dow Jones. Strange, I’ve never seen this chart anywhere in the mainstream financial media. They also never publish charts going back decades, the type of charts I publish weekly.


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To be honest about gold and the stock market’s relative performance, when comparing gold to the market performance of the NASDAQ Composite index, the table below, the NASDAQ has outperformed gold by a factor of 10. But does that make gold look historically bad, or historically cheap, when compared to the NASDAQ?

Comparing the Dow Jones to the NASDAQ Composite Index, the NASDAQ has outperformed the Dow Jones by a factor of 20.

Note on the table below. In 1970, the NASDAQ Composite didn’t exist yet. The earliest data I have for it is for 26 December 1978. So, that is the date I used for this comparison between the price of gold and the NASDAQ. Note that gold in 1978 was no longer at $35.50 an ounce.

As I was also curious how the Dow Jones would do, compared to gold and the NASDAQ, since December 1978, I included it in the table below. The Dow Jones was down by $19.76 from where it was in January 1970. From 1966 to 1982, the Dow Jones, my proxy for the broad stock market, did nothing for investors.


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What can we conclude from the data seen above;

1. That the stock bull market of the past few decades has so far outperformed gold as an investment,
2. But that doesn’t mean these trends will continue in the decades to come.

In late October 2025, I believe gold, silver, and their miners’ prospects for capital gains in the decades to come, far exceed those of the Dow Jones and NASDAQ Composite seen above.

This was an exciting week for gold, even if it was down a bit on the close of Friday’s trading. Look at the chart below, plotting gold’s days of extreme volatility (gold’s 3% days). This week, gold saw two 3% days (Red Arrow below). Monday closed 3.14% above last Friday’s close, a positive 3% day. On Tuesday, gold closed 5.22% below its close on Monday, a negative 3% day for gold.


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As seen in the chart above, these two 3% days for gold doubled gold’s totals of extreme days for 2025, from only 2 last week, to 4 at this week’s close. Let’s see how high the total for extreme volatility will be for 2025. The higher the better, and negative 3% days are fine too.

As mentioned above, gold’s day of extreme volatility on Tuesday, a move of -5.22% from Monday’s all-time high, knocked gold out of scoring position in a single day in gold’s BEV chart below. That doesn’t happen very often! But it doesn’t make me any less bullish on the gold market.

Looking at the chart below, at the lows of November 2024, a BEV of -8% seems a good place to be watching, to see if the current breakout from scoring position exceeded those lows of a year ago. However, I would not be surprised should gold once again enter scoring position in the weeks to come.

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If you found Gold’s BEV chart above a little depressing, its indexed value chart below should cheer you up. If you’re a bull on gold, what isn’t there to like about this chart?

After the advance seen by gold and silver so far in 2025, a little pullback from their last all-time highs is only to be expected. A pullback to 85 for gold and 20 for silver would not cancel their bullish advances seen below.


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For gold in its step sum table below, last week its 15-count increased to an extremely overbought +11. Markets don’t like being extremely overbought. So, I’m not surprised to see an increase in daily declines for this week, following gold’s last all-time high on Monday.

We should expect daily declines exceeding daily advances for the next few weeks. Should gold’s 15-count decrease down to a -7, thus making gold an oversold market sometime in November, that would be a big positive for the gold market. A point where all the weak hands in the gold market sold their positions, making the gold market ready to advance once again.

Am I making a prediction that gold is going to continue declining until its 15-count descends to a -7? Absolutely not!

Since 2024, gold, silver and their miners have been advancing like screaming banshees on the wind – why? I haven’t a clue. But looking at gold and silver in the chart above, someone out there does, and they have been buying gold and silver, as has not been seen since the 1970s. In my opinion, for what that’s worth, this just isn’t a good time to become bearish on the old monetary metals.

What did gold’s daily volatility’s 200D M/A close this week at? 0.91%, up from the 0.83% from a month ago. Good, very good.


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For the Dow Jones in its step sum table above, it's darn bullish. The Dow Jones sold off following its 15-count increase to a +7 on October 3rd, making it an overbought market. But now, with its 15-count at a neutral -1, the Dow Jones is once again making new all-time highs.

What is the Dow Jones daily volatility’s 200D M/A? 0.72%, a very reasonable number, supporting further increases in the Dow Jones valuation.
But historically, gold and the Dow Jones are counter-cyclical to each other. Meaning when one is going up, the other is going down, as seen in the chart below, plotting the Dow Jones to Gold Ratio.

For your information, I included the base data used to create this ratio in the chart beneath the ratio. If it looks familiar, that is because I already used this chart above. But it’s good to know it also forms the basis for the Dow Jones to Gold Ratio chart below.

For the Ratio, when it rises, the Dow Jones is outperforming gold. When it declines, gold outperforms the Dow Jones. This ratio has been contained inside the red box since 2014, eleven years, but is now breaking out to the downside, which is bullish for gold.


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If one is a Jew or Christian, God holds us accountable for what we do and sometimes don’t do.


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I bring this up, as I feel obligated to point out an approaching danger to humanity, that of AI, as reported in the CNBC article below.


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https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/800-...ence-race.html

If someone were to do a little research into the transhumanist movement, a group of elitist academics, receiving taxpayer funding for their research, these people say the future isn’t carbon, but silicon. In other words, people will be replaced by computers. Many of the leaders of Silicon Valley are members of the transhumanist movement, who do their utmost to someday enable AI to do exactly that, and they don’t keep this a secret.

Much effort has been made in past decades to create the “internet of things,” where everything, and everyone is connected to the internet. For example, the electrical grid. As a former electrician on US Naval Ships, I know a little something about steam-turbine electrical generation.
For the boiler tenders, to keep it simple, they are concerned about only two parameters;

1. Is the boiler operating at rated pressure?
2. Is the boiler’s water level within the rated parameters?
3. And that is it!

For the electricians, to keep it simple, they are concerned about only two parameters;

1. Are the generators at rated voltage?
2. Are the generators at rated frequency (60Hz)?
3. And that is it!

So, what in the hell would be the advantage of having a ship's boilers and electrical generators connected to the internet, other than to allow access to nefarious outsiders to the ship's vital systems? None that I can see. The same is mostly true for civilian electrical utilities.

So, why today are we concerned about China, or some other nefarious agent of chaos, causing electrical blackouts for the United States? Because some idiot connected our electrical utilities to the internet. They didn’t have to, but still, they did.

I suppose there were reasons for doing that with an electrical system spanning many states, which would not be obvious to someone like me, a naval electrician. But before the internet was created, America’s power grid never had difficulties maintaining rated voltage, at rated frequency, to all users, including people’s kitchen appliances and industrial users.

So, what advantage did connecting America’s electrical utility system to the internet give us? Absolutely none that I can see that outweigh the risks of internet hackers waging war on America’s electrical grid. Still, they did this, and I have to ask why?

Due to this deliberate effort to connect everything and everybody to the internet, the potential for AI to inflict havoc on society is becoming unlimited, should AI ever (when) take control of the worldwide web.

Mark J. Lundeen
[email protected]

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/in...-pre-war-world

Investing In A Pre-War World


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by Tyler Durden

Sunday, October 26, 2025 - 06:40 PM
By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

I’ve had the pleasure of having several in-person and video meetings with the Academy’s Head of Geopolitical Strategy, General (ret.) Spider Marks. These discussions, such as this one at SIFMA’s Annual Meeting, where the Academy was given the privilege of speaking, have helped us solidify our framework around ProSec.

Framing the conversation around a “Pre-War” world helps a lot in that respect as well.

When we use the word “investing,” it applies to:

1. Asset managers who will drive the flow of capital.
2. Corporations that will invest to create opportunities for their companies and stakeholders.
3. Governments that will invest time and money into achieving their strategic goals.

We dug out this clip from July 2024, with Charles Payne on Fox Biz, where we talked about so many of the same issues – semiconductors, the processing and refining of rare earths and critical minerals, and of course, the need for energy.
Yes, we have “refined” our thoughts on the subject:

1. “Refine Baby Refine” was too narrow and never caught on anyway. It was too difficult to get people to think more broadly than just about oil and gas (with the reference to refining), and it didn’t encapsulate our entire vision very well.
2. We pivoted to “National Production for National Security,” which is still our basic premise, but it is just a lot to say. I will admit, I spent some time with GROK and ChatGPT trying to figure out an acronym around this. We distilled it down to Production for Security (much easier to say 10 times fast than “National Production for National Security,” which we are labelling as ProSec).
   1. No, ProSec is not a registered trademark, and yes, adding the “TM” makes typing these notes take longer.
   2. Yes, we are working on an equity index that captures the ProSec concept, but if you think typing “TM” is out of my wheelhouse, then trying to build an equity index from scratch on a thesis that is evolving is in a league of its own.

Just over a week ago, we published:

1. Is ProSec the New ESG? That is the moment when we really tried to home in on this concept as a longer-term investment, policy, and governance issue. Just like ESG-dominated corporate culture, politics, and investments, we believe that ProSec is the evolution of that. It is starting in the U.S., but it will filter out to the rest of the world.
2. We delved into what we would focus on – anything from “lottery tickets” to National Champions. After this week, it is quite apparent that some of the “lottery tickets” are in the highly speculative momentum bucket, as we had some wild swings. Which makes me wonder if “National Champions” may play an even bigger role than previously thought.
3. We would not want to own companies in the right “space” that are not heavily domestic-focused (though we are encouraged by the admin signing a deal with Australia, where we will work with our allies to enhance how quickly we can achieve our goals). Our focus remains more on “processing and refining” and less on “extraction,” though both will be important

Now is a good time to “layer in” what we mean by a “Pre-War” World.

A Pre-War World
I am largely paraphrasing what Spider has been laying the groundwork for. Any deviations from Spider’s vision are either because of omission, misunderstanding, or I wanted to tweak things.

Since the end of World War II, we have been living in a Post-War World.

From the United Nations to NATO, we have been largely operating in a world outside of war.
The Soviet Union posed challenges, and that was the one sphere where “we,” the “West,” operated with a “Pre-War” mindset. Just think of the cooperation. The innovation. Even the sacrifices were made to ensure that we would not go to war with the Soviet Union.
A Pre-War mindset does not automatically lead to war.

1. In fact, a properly executed Pre-War Strategy should lead to the AVOIDANCE of war.

Maybe that seems a bit convoluted, but it really fits with “Deterrence” and “Peace through Strength” (other long-running themes at the Academy).

If you prepare well enough, conflict is less likely to arise as the attackers usually only attack when they see vulnerability (like Putin did with Ukraine – in which case he turned out to be wrong on his assessment of his forces and Ukraine’s, but that is another story).

We could argue that the Fall of the Soviet Union was a direct result of the Pre-War mentality being incredibly effective.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, we “basked” in the sunlight of the “Peace Dividend.”

There was no “war footing anywhere, except in America. Even that “war” effort was primarily directed to the Middle East (oil was still a big deal) and against terrorism (which, as we all know, is a difficult and complex battle).
Or so we thought.

While the West was busy enjoying the “Peace Dividend,” China was busy building up a significant military presence. Their equipment was improving, and the scope of their armed forces was growing. But it went far beyond just a military build-up. Expansion and militarization of the South China Sea Islands, constant “testing” around Taiwan and the Philippines, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the rapidly growing trade with countries (particularly the autocratic resource-rich nations) are all examples of this. Let’s not even talk about their rapidly growing industry, including their electricity production.

We used to “half joke” in meetings that the U.S had a “vision” of sustainability, but no plan to get there. And that China had no vision, but an excellent plan on how to get control of the things we might need. I say “half joke” because at the time, you had to say it with only mock seriousness, as you might have gotten tossed out of the room, depending on the audience.

The D.I.M.E. framework of levers of power was on full display with China.

1. Diplomacy.
2. Information.
3. Military.
4. Economic.

Let’s not go too far backward in time, but the D.I.M.E. Framework for China, Trade, and Strategic Competition from December 2019, crafted with a lot of guidance and input from General (ret.) Walsh isn’t a bad read. General (ret.) Walsh was part of the group that first labelled China as a “Strategic” Competitor in the National Defence Policy.

This is important for two main reasons:

1. We think it shows that China has had a “Pre-War” mentality, and we need to shift to that to truly compete effectively with them.
2. The strategies outlined by the DoD really do impact markets via geopolitics. That is important as we will highlight some new potential shifts in policy.

ProSec Thrives in a Pre-War World
Again, as you know (and are probably sick of hearing), we have been pushing for Production for Security for some time. Reinventing how we view “National Security” to encompass anything that we need to be secure (with chips and electricity generation as much at the forefront as new weapons systems).
While that policy can work, it can be slow. If we are truly developing a Pre-War mindset, the difference is:

1. Urgency. From putting astronauts on the moon to the Manhattan Project, you can see what a sense of urgency can achieve. If you are already “tired” of the headlines in and around ProSec, then I suspect that you will be “really tired” soon, as the pace of developments along all fronts expands rapidly. Just this week, I think the government added quantum to their list of announced discussions, and drones also had some headlines.
   1. The Russia/Ukraine war has taught us all a lot about the importance of drones in warfare going forward. While we knew it, it was unclear if Congress understood the urgency (Congress has a lot of influence on what the military spends money on). Expect rapid advancements on the drone front – both in the air and on the sea.

2. Sacrifice. Countries are often able to pull off amazing things when they move to “shared” sacrifice. It is difficult to argue that this theme didn’t help Ukraine with Russia or Israel with Iran. Is Deregulation a Sacrifice? For many, it is. Probably for all of us, there are some regulations that we are wedded to. But will some deregulation (that we might not accept in a Post-War World) be acceptable in a Pre-War World?
   1. We have often written and discussed that one of the great privileges of my job is that I get to talk to so many people in government and in so many different industries, from so many parts of the country (and increasingly, the world), and they all seem closer to agreement than if you lived in a world driven by social media (or more broadly, non-financial media). I think there is an immense amount of room “in the middle” to adopt policies that don’t make everyone happy, but are workable (it will probably go too far, but for today, I’m writing as the optimist).

The impetus to invoke ProSec is just beginning in the U.S. It will grow here and spread to our allies as well. This is THE investment theme – and it does incorporate AI and Data Centers as the U.S. is the leader there, and is necessary to “win” the Pre-War.

Where is the DoD Turning Its Attention?

China has been and will continue to be the “pacing” threat, but strong signals are coming out of D.C. that we will see a “shift” in emphasis.
That we will put “defence of the U.S. homeland” as a higher priority.

Just like National Production for National Security requires us to think about producing more than tanks and weapons, this policy will make us think differently about “border” security, and I think, more importantly, about national security.

The "war" on drugs has hardly been a war.
With what is occurring in and around Venezuela, drug smuggling is being elevated to the status of “war.” The U.S. is taking measures not seen before. As Spider has said, presumably the actions have been vetted by lawyers within the DoD and have been given the go-ahead.

My view (and not everyone on the GIG agrees with me) is that the actions around Venezuela are going to set new levels of acceptable engagement that will be brought against the Mexican Cartels when the time is right. Presumably in conjunction with the government of Mexico, but maybe the U.S. will do things unilaterally to “protect our nation.”

Again, these national policy papers have real-world repercussions.

Bottom Line
ProSec was always more than “just a trade,” but I believe it is rapidly developing into a crucial way to invest (at the corporate, government, and asset manager level). At some point, if I can get my act together, we might even have some indices that capture this movement.

As I hit send on this report, I imagine some consternation amongst many of our readers, but I think we will also see an acknowledgement that while ProSec is rough around the edges, there is something substantial about it, and it will become a global theme.

To be perfectly honest, all we have to do is examine what China has been doing and is doing (look at their recent developments on chips and AI), and we have a pretty clear view of what ProSec looks like!

While Pre-War sounds scary (and it is), a successful Pre-War plan will keep us from getting to the War stage.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/g...ovember-1-2025

Gold Price Exclusive Update - November 1, 2025

Jack Chan

Technical Analyst & Editor

November 1, 2025

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Our proprietary cycle indicator is DOWN.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.

Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.

Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short-term profits
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GLD is on a short-term sell signal.
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GDX is on a short-term sell signal.
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XGD.to is on a short-term sell signal.
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GDXJ is on a short-term sell signal.

Analysis
Current COT data N/A due to government shutdown.
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Our ratio is on a sell signal.
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Trend is UP for USD.
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The trend is now DOWN for gold stocks.
https://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/def...jc110125-9.jpg

The trend is now DOWN for gold.
https://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/def...c110125-10.jpg

A multi-month consolidation to build a handle would be ideal.
https://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/def...c110125-11.jpg

Watch for another multi-month consolidation.

Summary
Gold sector cycle is DOWN.
Trend is up for USD, down for gold & gold stocks.

We took profits and will wait for new set ups.

Disclosure
We do not offer predictions or forecasts for the markets. What you see here is our simple trading model which provides us the signals and set ups to be either long, short, or in cash at any given time. Entry points and stops are provided in real time to subscribers, therefore, this update may not reflect our current positions in the markets. Trade at your own discretion.

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November 7, 2025

Top Trump Officials Echo “Fallen Angels” Warning As Feared Alien Craft Nears Earth
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A troubling new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first notes Vice President J.D. Vance stunningly revealed: “I’m a big believer that there are like spiritual forces working on the physical world that a lot of us don’t see and a lot of us don’t understand and a lot of us don’t appreciate...Is it aliens or is it our guardian angel, or is it aliens or is it a not-so-guardian force that doesn’t care about us or in fact, actively wishes us harm?”.

Following the stunning revelation made by Vice President Vance, this report notes, top President Donald Trump ally Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene declared about extraterrestrial aliens: “I’m a Bible-believing Christian and I believe those could be fallen angels”, and it was also observed: “Both Vice President JD Vance and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene have floated the possibility in recent days that what some humans see as so-called extraterrestrials and UFOs could be supernatural and even demonic in nature”.

The echoing by top Trump officials of ancient Biblical warnings about spiritual forces and fallen angels, this report continues, joins world-renowned Harvard astrophysicist Professor Avi Loeb warning about the mysterious interstellar object 3I/ATLAS that’s acting like an alien spacecraft: “Earth went through five documented mass extinction events throughout its 4.54-billion-year history...They occurred approximately 445, 365, 252, 201 and 66 million years ago...The latest among them resulted in the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs, probably as a result of the Chicxulub asteroid impact...

It has been suggested that some extinction events resulted from astrophysical causes, such as exploding stars or passage through the spiral arms of the Milky Way galaxy...But one possibility was omitted: if life was seeded on Earth by an interstellar gardener, then it is also possible that this gardener resets terrestrial life whenever it goes in an unwanted direction”—Professor Loeb then worryingly added: “I hope that data collected in the coming weeks, especially around December 19, 2025 — when 3I/ATLAS gets closest to Earth, will reveal the true nature of this interstellar object...Let's hope that 3I/ATLAS will not deliver us unwanted gifts for the holidays”.

As feared 3I/ATLAS nears Earth, this report details, China joined the hunt for this cosmic enigma, near immediately after which it was alarmingly revealed: “The return of three Chinese astronauts back to Earth from the Tiangong space station has been delayed after their spacecraft was reportedly damaged by debris”—it was also shockingly reveled that Air Force personnel maintaining Air Force One for President Trump were sickened by the contents of a suspicious package—all of which joins the unexpected news: “Two days after passing through the Strait of Gibraltar en route to the Caribbean, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford has not moved significantly from a position just west of Morocco in North Africa...The flattop and elements of its strike group were ordered by President Donald Trump to join the ongoing enhanced counter-narcotics mission in the region, but it is unclear if plans have changed”.

Along with American defence experts revealing: “Notwithstanding major disruptions from the U.S. government shutdown, federal personnel are monitoring the rare interstellar comet known as 3I/ATLAS as it moves through the solar system...NASA experts are set to connect with at least one congressional lawmaker about the mysterious object, following her official request for more imagery to be released...3I/ATLAS is massive in size and traveled at the highest speed ever recorded for such an object”, this report concludes, the 9 reasons for Professor Loeb believing 3I/ATLAS could be an alien spacecraft were documented:

1. A Rare Orbital Path
Loeb notes that 3I/ATLAS follows a retrograde trajectory unusually aligned with the plane of the planets.
“Its retrograde trajectory is aligned to within five degrees with the ecliptic plane”, he explained.
The probability of such alignment by chance, he calculates, is about 0.2 percent. This precise alignment suggests a directed or engineered entry path rather than a random interstellar passage.

2. The Appearance Of An Anti-Tail
During July and August 2025, the comet displayed what astronomers call a sunward jet or anti-tail. In familiar comets, these features are typically optical illusions caused by viewing angles.
Loeb says that in the case of 3I/ATLAS, the effect cannot be explained by geometry alone.
This, he argues, suggests unusual material or energy activity inconsistent with known natural behaviour.

3. Unusual Mass And Velocity
Data show that 3I/ATLAS has a nucleus about a million times more massive than 1I/‘Oumuamua and a thousand times more massive than 2I/Borisov, yet it travels faster than both.

The odds of this combination occurring naturally, Loeb estimates, are less than 0.1 percent.
Such mass and speed make it one of the most energetic interstellar bodies ever observed.

4. Coincidental Timing
Loeb also points to what he calls “fine-tuned timing.”
The object’s trajectory brought it within close range of Mars, Venus, and Jupiter within a few weeks of each other, while remaining hidden from Earth during its perihelion, its nearest approach to the Sun.
He calculates the odds of that happening randomly as just 0.005 percent.

5. Industrial-level Nickel
Spectroscopic analysis revealed that 3I/ATLAS’s gas plume contains far more nickel than iron.
Loeb notes that this ratio mirrors that of nickel-based alloys produced in industrial processes on Earth.
The concentration, he adds, is orders of magnitude higher than in any known natural comet. The chance of such a composition arising naturally is below 1 percent.

6. Almost No Water
Unlike familiar comets, which are mostly ice, 3I/ATLAS appears to contain only about four percent water by mass.
Loeb argues that this dryness indicates a composition more like manufactured metal or stone than a frozen celestial body.

7. Unusual Light Polarization
Observations show that 3I/ATLAS reflects light with extreme negative polarization, a property not seen in other comets.
Loeb estimates the odds of this occurring naturally at under 1 percent.
He suggests that the effect might come from artificial surfaces or engineered materials rather than ice and dust.

8. A Link To The “Wow! Signal”
3I/ATLAS entered the solar system from nearly the same direction as the mysterious “Wow! Signal”, a strong radio burst detected in 1977 and long associated with speculation about extraterrestrial intelligence.
Loeb says the coincidence, within nine degrees, has a likelihood of just 0.6 percent.

9. An Extraordinary Brightening
Near its closest approach to the Sun, 3I/ATLAS suddenly brightened faster than any known comet and appeared bluer than the Sun itself.
Solar observatories, including STEREO, SOHO, and GOES-19, recorded the event.
Loeb describes the phenomenon as “unprecedented”, suggesting it could indicate artificial illumination or reflection.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]






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[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]
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Mises Wire

Moving at a High Speed toward an Economic Abyss
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Tags: Interventionism, The Fed, Inflation, U.S. Economy

11/07/2025•Mises Wire•George Ford Smith


Here is modern economic theory in one sentence: money needs to be plentiful for a prosperous economy. As a corollary: No problem is too big that can’t be resolved with enough money.

On the other hand, here are modern economic results in one sentence: a boom eventually nosedives into crisis, which is the necessary correction, but is delayed or fought by the process that caused it—massive money printing to save significant market participants.

Politicians favour money printing—leading to artificially low interest rates—to win favour with voters. An economy flush with money can keep people employed, keep GDP figures sparkling, and best of all, keep pundits off the politician’s backs, that is, for a while. Gold being the “Great Tattle-Tale,” central banks sometimes sell it to signal their faith in fiat, but today even the money printers are looking for salvation and are accumulating the barbarous relic, ignoring gold’s stark testimony.

I’m viewing the rush to gold, although some people are advising caution because gold is in for a price correction. But there’s another take, offered by Tavi Costa, Partner & Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital. The price of gold could go to the moon “if the U.S. were to revalue its gold inventory relative to outstanding Treasuries.”

Currently, US gold reserves cover about 2 percent of its roughly $36 trillion in Treasuries outstanding, compared to 17 percent in the 1970s and about 40 percent in the 1940s. Getting back to the 17 percent mark would mean gold at $25,000 an ounce, and reaching 40 percent would see gold close to $55,000 an ounce.

But there are assumptions in this analysis that need exposure. What would astronomical gold prices imply for dollar holders? At $55K, Big Macs would be close to $80, given an average price today of around $5.66. To arrive at $80 over the near horizon, the Fed would need to go into overdrive with guns blazing, in Zimbabwe fashion. What would that do to the politicians who promised milk and honey for all, especially retirees?

From a political (criminal) standpoint, it makes no sense to counterfeit if everyone benefits—the so-called helicopter drop proposed by Milton Friedman and made famous by former Fed governor and eventual chair ”Helicopter” Ben Bernanke. The idea behind money printing is to steal wealth surreptitiously from dollar holders, to create a hidden tax, thereby increasing government revenue. Your dollars buy less, so that the government can spend more. But incomes would lag, and that too would create political instability.

Some governments have hyperinflated their currencies as a way of cancelling debt, with ruinous effects on the currency and particularly debt holders. In the West, the model has been Weimar Germany in 1923, which hyperinflated the Mark.

Rather than hyperinflation, a more ethical and effective method advanced by Rothbard is “outright debt repudiation.” When government sells its debt, he points out, both parties in the transaction realize the money will be paid back “not out of the pockets or the hides of the politicians and bureaucrats, but out of the looted wallets and purses of the hapless taxpayers.”

In short, public creditors are willing to hand over money to the government now in order to receive a share of tax loot in the future. This is the opposite of a free market, or a genuinely voluntary transaction. Both parties are immorally contracting to participate in the violation of the property rights of citizens in the future.

Cancelling public debt, therefore, is an acknowledgement that the transactions amounted to “robbers parcelling out their shares of loot in advance” and is not a violation of legitimate contracts.

It’s doubtful government officials would cite this reasoning for cancelling the debt, but they might see it as a way of avoiding the final destruction of the currency, which they hold in various forms close to their thieving hearts. They know that even if they did destroy the common medium of exchange, the economy would limp on, and—in the absence of sound economics—with the aid of massive propaganda, they would eventually reinstate their inflationary house of cards, from which they profit at the expense of others.

Government and Markets are Enemies
The problem we face is the foundational conflict of states and markets, or coercion versus voluntary exchange. Ordinary people and ordinary experts alike see the state as somehow necessary, in spite of its long history of exploitation and destruction. It’s viewed as the concerned head of a family instead of an alien presence. It survives on deceit and plunder, and is promoted as the will of the people through their elected representatives. Any alleged failings, therefore, can be ascribed to defects in human nature and not the state as such.

Markets don’t work properly under state sovereignty, whether it’s the market for shoes, bikinis, or anything else. The failings of state interventions have been blamed on the market, with more interference regarded as the cure. Then more and more, as the cure seems forever elusive. What began as close to a free society begins to resemble a slave state. The propaganda machine ensures it will head that way until markets have capitulated to total bureaucratic control—or the courage of the plundered makes itself known.

If we are to have a future, we need to educate ourselves and others on the value of free markets. Reformers have opposed them since people began trading. In this regard, few remarks are more enlightening than the ones Mises wrote in the epilogue to Socialism (1950), in which he succinctly presented the contradictions of interventionism.

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Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis

1. The Failure of Interventionism

Nothing is more unpopular today than the free market economy, i.e., capitalism. Everything that is considered unsatisfactory in present-day conditions is charged to capitalism. The atheists make capitalism responsible for the survival of Christianity. But the papal encyclicals blame capitalism for the spread of irreligion and the sins of our contemporaries, and the Protestant churches and sects are no less vigorous in their indictment of capitalist greed. Friends of peace consider our wars as an offshoot of capitalist imperialism. But the adamant nationalist warmongers of Germany and Italy indicted capitalism for its ‘bourgeois’ pacifism, contrary to human nature and to the inescapable laws of history. Sermonizers accuse capitalism of disrupting the family and fostering licentiousness. But the ‘progressives’ blame capitalism for the preservation of allegedly outdated rules of sexual restraint. Almost all men agree that poverty is an outcome of capitalism. On the other hand, many deplore the fact that capitalism, in catering lavishly to the wishes of people intent upon getting more amenities and a better living, promotes a crass materialism.

These contradictory accusations of capitalism cancel one another. But the fact remains that there are few people left who would not condemn capitalism altogether.
Although capitalism is the economic system of modern Western civilization, the policies of all Western nations are guided by utterly anti-capitalistic ideas. The aim of these interventionist policies is not to preserve capitalism, but to substitute a mixed economy for it. It is assumed that this mixed economy is neither capitalism nor socialism. It is described as a third system, as far from capitalism as it is from socialism. It is alleged that it stands midway between socialism and capitalism, retaining the advantages of both and avoiding the disadvantages inherent in each.

More than half a century ago, the outstanding man in the British socialist movement, Sidney Webb, declared that the socialist philosophy is ‘but the conscious and explicit assertion of principles of social organization which have already in great part unconsciously adopted’. And he added that the economic history of the nineteenth century was ‘an almost continuous record of the progress of socialism’.1 A few years later, an eminent British statesman, Sir William Harcourt, stated: ‘We are all socialists now.’2 In 1913, an American, Elmer Roberts, published a book on the economic policies of the Imperial Government of Germany as conducted since the end of the 1870s, which he called ‘monarchical socialism’.3

However, it was not correct simply to identify interventionism and socialism. Many supporters of interventionism consider it the most appropriate method of realizing — step by step — full socialism. But many interventionists are not outright socialists; they aim at the establishment of the mixed economy as a permanent system of economic management. They endeavour to restrain, to regulate and to ‘improve’ capitalism by government interference with business and by labour unionism.

To comprehend the working of interventionism and of the mixed economy, it is necessary to clarify two points:

First: If within a society based on private ownership of the means of production, some of these means are owned and operated by the government or by municipalities, this still does not make for a mixed system which would combine socialism and private ownership. As long as only certain individual enterprises are publicly controlled, the characteristics of the market economy determining economic activity remain essentially unimpaired.

The publicly owned enterprises, too, as buyers of raw materials, semi-finished goods and labour, and as sellers of goods and services, must fit into the mechanism of the market economy. They are subject to the law of the market; they have to strive for profits or, at least, to avoid losses. When it is attempted to mitigate or to eliminate this dependence by covering the losses of such enterprises with subsidies out of public funds, the only result is a shifting of this dependence somewhere else. This is because the means for the subsidies have to be raised somewhere. They may be raised by collecting taxes. But the burden of such taxes has its effects on the public, not on the government collecting the tax. It is the market, and not the revenue department, which decides upon whom the burden of the tax falls and how it affects production and consumption. The market and its inescapable law are supreme.

Second: There are two different patterns for the realization of socialism. The one pattern — we may call it the Marxian or Russian pattern — is purely bureaucratic. All economic enterprises are departments of the government, just as the administration of the army and the navy or the postal system. Every single plant, shop or farm stands in the same relation to the superior central organization as does a post office to the office of the Postmaster-General. The whole nation forms one single labour army with compulsory service; the commander of this army is the chief of state.

The second pattern — we may call it the German or Zwangswirtschaft system4 — differs from the first one in that it, seemingly and nominally, maintains private ownership of the means of production, entrepreneurship, and market exchange. So-called entrepreneurs do the buying and selling, pay the workers, contract debts and pay interest and amortization. But they are no longer entrepreneurs. In Nazi Germany, they were called shop managers or Betriebsführer. The government tells these seeming entrepreneurs what and how to produce, at what prices and from whom to buy, and at what prices and to whom to sell. The government decrees at what wages labourers should work, and to whom and under what terms the capitalists should entrust their funds.

Market exchange is but a sham. As all prices, wages and interest rates are fixed by the authority, they are prices, wages and interest rates in appearance only; in fact, they are merely quantitative terms in the authoritarian orders determining each citizen’s income, consumption and standard of living. The authority, not the consumers, directs production. The central board of production management is supreme; all citizens are nothing but civil servants. This is socialism with the outward appearance of capitalism. Some labels of the capitalistic market economy are retained, but they signify here something entirely different from what they mean in the market economy.

It is necessary to point out this fact to prevent confusion between socialism and interventionism. The system of the hampered market economy, or interventionism, differs from socialism by the very fact that it is still a market economy. The authority seeks to influence the market through the intervention of its coercive power, but it does not want to eliminate the market. It desires that production and consumption should develop along lines different from those prescribed by the unhindered market, and it wants to achieve its aim by injecting into the working of the market orders, commands and prohibitions for whose enforcement the police power and its apparatus of coercion and compulsion stand ready. But these are isolated interventions; their authors assert that they do not plan to combine these measures into a completely integrated system which regulates all prices, wages and interest rates, and which thus places full control of production and consumption in the hands of the authorities.

However, all the methods of interventionism are doomed to failure. This means: the interventionist measures must result in conditions which, from the point of view of their own advocates, are more unsatisfactory than the previous state of affairs they were designed to alter. These policies are therefore contrary to the purpose.
Minimum wage rates, whether enforced by government decree or by labour union pressure and compulsion, are useless if they fix wage rates at the market level. But if they try to raise wage rates above the level which the unhampered labour market would have determined, they result in permanent unemployment of a great part of the potential labour force.

Government spending cannot create additional jobs. If the government provides the funds required by taxing the citizens or by borrowing from the public, it abolishes on the one hand as many jobs as it creates on the other. If government spending is financed by borrowing from the commercial banks, it means credit expansion and inflation. If in the course of such an inflation the rise in commodity prices exceeds the rise in nominal wage rates, unemployment will drop. But what makes unemployment shrink is precisely the fact that real wage rates are falling.

The inherent tendency of capitalist evolution is to raise real wage rates steadily. This is the effect of the progressive accumulation of capital by means of which technological methods of production are improved. There is no means by which the height of wage rates can be raised for all those eager to earn wages other than through the increase of the per capita quota of capital invested. Whenever the accumulation of additional capital stops, the tendency towards a further increase in real wage rates comes to a standstill. If capital consumption is substituted for an increase in capital available, real wage rates must drop temporarily until the checks on a further capital increase are removed. Government measures which retard capital accumulation or lead to capital consumption — such as confiscatory taxation — are therefore detrimental to the vital interests of the workers.

Credit expansion can bring about a temporary boom. But such a fictitious prosperity must end in a general depression of trade, a slump.
It can hardly be asserted that the economic history of the last decades has run counter to the pessimistic predictions of the economists. Our age has to face great economic troubles. But this is not a crisis of capitalism. It is the crisis of interventionism, of policies designed to improve capitalism and to substitute a better system for it.

No economist ever dared to assert that interventionism could result in anything else than disaster and chaos. The advocates of interventionism — foremost among them the Prussian Historical School and the American Institutionalists — were not economists. On the contrary. In order to promote their plans, they flatly denied that there is any such thing as economic law. In their opinion, governments are free to achieve all they aim at without being restrained by an inexorable regularity in the sequence of economic phenomena. Like the German socialist Ferdinand Lassalle, they maintain that the State is God.

The interventionists do not approach the study of economic matters with scientific disinterestedness. Most of them are driven by an envious resentment against those whose incomes are larger than their own. This bias makes it impossible for them to see things as they really are. For them, the main thing is not to improve the conditions of the masses, but to harm the entrepreneurs and capitalists, even if this policy victimizes the immense majority of the people.

In the eyes of the interventionists, the mere existence of profits is objectionable. They speak of profit without dealing with its corollary, loss. They do not comprehend that profit and loss are the instruments by means of which the consumers keep a tight rein on all entrepreneurial activities. It is profit and loss that make the consumers supreme in the direction of business. It is absurd to contrast production for profit and production for use. In an unhampered market, a man can earn profits only by supplying the consumers in the best and cheapest way with the goods they want to use.

Profit and loss withdraw the material factors of production from the hands of the inefficient and place them in the hands of the more efficient. It is their social function to make a man more influential in the conduct of business, the better he succeeds in producing commodities for which people scramble. The consumers suffer when the laws of the country prevent the most efficient entrepreneurs from expanding the sphere of their activities. What made some enterprises develop into ‘big business’ was precisely their success in meeting the best demand of the masses.

Anti-capitalistic policies sabotage the operation of the capitalist system of the market economy. The failure of interventionism does not demonstrate the necessity of adopting socialism. It merely exposes the futility of interventionism. All those evils which the self-styled ‘progressives’ interpret as evidence of the failure of capitalism are the outcome of their allegedly beneficial interference with the market. Only the ignorant, wrongly identifying interventionism and capitalism, believe that the remedy for these evils is socialism.

1. 1Sidney Webb in Fabian Essays in Socialism, first published in 1889 (American edition, New York, 1891, p. 4).
2. 2Cf. G. M. Trevelyan, A Shortened History of England (London 1942), p. 510.
3. 3Elmer Roberts, Monarchical Socialism in Germany (New York, 1913).
4. 4Zwang means compulsion, Wirtschaft means economy. The English language equivalent for Zwangswirtschaft is something like compulsory economy.

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November 8, 2025

Ukraine Issues “You Will Die Just Like Your Husband” Death Threat To Erika Kirk
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A foreboding new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Donald Trump revealed yesterday about a summit meeting with President Putin: “There’s always a chance, a very good chance...If we have it, I’d like to do it in Budapest”, says top Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov quickly replied: “We believe that at some point, a summit will certainly be welcomed by both sides”.

While the world awaits a Trump-Putin summit to end what Secretary of State Marco Rubio truthfully described as: “It’s a proxy war between nuclear powers, the United States helping Ukraine, and Russia”, this report notes, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) revealed that Russian battlegroups inflicted more than 3,285 casualties on Ukrainian troops over the past week and announced: “In response to Ukraine’s terrorist attacks on civilian facilities on Russian territory, on 1-7 November the Russian Armed Forces delivered seven combined strikes by precision weapons and attack unmanned aerial vehicles, hitting Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises and their gas and energy sites, transport infrastructure used to support the Ukrainian army’s operations, military airfields, armament and military hardware repair facilities, the workshops for the assembly and the sites for the storage of attack unmanned aerial vehicles and their preparation for launch, and also temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian armed formations, nationalists and foreign mercenaries”.

Following the Ministry of Defence announcement, this report continues, Ukrainian state media revealed: “Russia launched yet another wide-ranging attack on Ukrainian cities overnight on 8 November, using a combination of drones and missiles to strike targets across the country...Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk said that the massive combined missile and drone attack targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, resulting in emergency power outages being implemented in several regions...Throughout the fall, Russia has continued to intensify attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as it attempts to plunge the country into yet another harsh winter...The worst strikes on 3 and 5 October wiped out around 60% of Ukraine’s gas production sites”.

In charge of the collapsing Ukrainian energy system relentlessly targeted by Russia, this report details, was Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, whom unelected Ukrainian Dictator Vladimir Zelensky threw into prison and proclaimed about him yesterday: “He was the head of a large system, and this system was supposed to ensure the security of our energy sector...He was obliged to do this — and he did not”—world-renowned German historian Dr. Tarik Cyril Amar then observed: “Someone in the mainstream West has woken up to, if not the facts about the politics of Ukraine, then at least a quantum of disquiet...The last major wave of the likes of the Financial Times, The Economist, and the Spectator suddenly noticing – all at the same time, as if on cue – that Ukraine has an authoritarianism and corruption problem,”—and American tactical combat legend retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor, Ph.D., assessed: “I think Zelensky may suddenly disappear”.

Knowing well the demonic bloodlust insanity of Dictator Zelensky, this report notes, was publicly assassinated Christian icon Charlie Kirk, who warned before his brutal death: “Now understand that our own intelligence services are simply feeding Zelensky talking points...Zelensky is a puppet of the intelligence services...Zelensky is not just persecuting Putin...He is declaring war on the Russian people...He is not just saying that Putin is bad, listen carefully...He says Russian society is bad...This is how nuclear war arises...Zelensky probably blames the entire population of Russia for allowing another Hitler to seize power...If this is another Hitler who came to power, Zelensky, then why are there so many Nazis in your army?”.

Immediately after President Putin launched the “Special De-Nazification Operation” to liberate Ukraine, this report concludes, Charlie Kirk declared: “Crimea should be returned to Russia as a gesture of goodwill” and afterwards proclaimed: “It's simply unacceptable for ordinary people to spend $2 trillion that you don't have on wars you can't win, defending people who don't belong to you, while you're being invaded by people we don't know...Cut spending...End the mess in Ukraine”—a declaration and proclamation by Charlie Kirk just joined by Ukrainian Nazi forces posting a death threat video to his still grieving widow Erica Kirk, wherein they demonically warned her: “If you say what your husband said, call for the return of Ukrainian territories to the Russians, stop assisting Ukraine, you will die just like your husband...Take care of your neck, Erica”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

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November 8, 2025, EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition that it is linked to its source at WhatDoesItMean.com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

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November 26, 2025
Deep State Impeachers Attack Trump With Leaked Call To Destroy Ukraine Peace Deal
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

An insightful new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Donald Trump walked back the deadline for Ukraine to accept his peace plan yesterday, saying it was “just a map”, says he then dispatched Special Envoy Steve Witcoff to Moscow to meet with President Putin—Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov confirmed President Putin will meet with Witcoff, after which President Trump published the notice: “I look forward to hopefully meeting with President Zelenskyy and President Putin soon, but ONLY when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages”—all of which was followed by the news: “Vladimir Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, appeared visibly frustrated after President Donald Trump said he would only meet the Ukrainian leader once the peace framework was final or in its final stages...The New York Post said Trump’s message was published while Yermak was speaking to the outlet...According to the outlet, Yermak’s face dropped, apparently gutted by the news, and he declined to comment.

Also yesterday, this report notes, United States Army Secretary Dan Driscoll made a surprise visit to the Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi, where he did not discuss the peace plan saying that it would be discussed between Witcoff and President Putin—NBC News then revealed that Army Secretary Driscoll went to Abu Dhabi to warn the Ukrainian delegation of its “imminent defeat”—and was a warning joined by Chairwoman Valentina Matviyenko of the Russian Federation Council most factually observing: “We are not fighting Ukraine...NATO is fighting us using Ukrainians...Ukrainians will eventually understand that the conflict with Russia was cynically engineered by the West to inflict a strategic defeat on Moscow”.

Shortly after top Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov assessed yesterday: “A lot of people in foreign countries, including the United States, would be happy to derail the Ukraine peace talks”, this report continues, leftist Bloomberg News released what they claimed was a transcript of a 14 October call between Special Envoy Witkoff and top Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov—Bloomberg News did not release the audio but posted the transcript in Russian and English, and top Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev called the transcript “fake”—and the Wall Street Journal revealed today: “The White House is defending special envoy Steve Witkoff over a reportedly leaked conversation in which he told a Russian official that praising President Trump would help smooth over a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the war in Ukraine”.

Immediately after the fake transcript was released yesterday, this report details, top Republican Party neocon leader Congressman Don Bacon raged: “Witkoff acts like he’s on Russia’s payroll...This whole incident has been a fiasco and a blemish on our country...He needs to be fired”, and the leftist New York Times observed today: “Congressional Republicans who view Ukraine as a bulwark against Russian aggression are openly blasting President Trump’s team for an approach they argue amounts to appeasing the Kremlin in a bid to swiftly draw the conflict to a close”.

In 2019, this report concludes, the Deep State leaked a transcript of a call made between President Trump and President Zelensky—a call trying to prevent war, but led to the first impeachment of President Trump—the leaking of the transcript was orchestrated by Fiona Hill, whom the Deep State embedded in National Security Council during the first term of President Trump, she testified against President Trump during the failed impeachment, she is now a top policy advisor for the British government, and today she slammed the 2026 Putin Calendar: “It’s the idea of a man for every season...They are positioning Putin as this iconic figure, reminding everybody how cool he is, how much in charge he is, how much he’s kind of the living symbol and embodiment of literally everybody’s days”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

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November 26, 2025, EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition that it is linked to its source at WhatDoesItMean.com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

American Orthobros Ignite Global Political Earthquake

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General Flynn Calls For National Address From Trump On Color Revolution Threat


https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden

Thursday, November 27, 2025 - 11:45 AM

Whether it's the protest-industrial complex run by left-wing activist groups and bankrolled by unhinged progressive billionaires' dark money NGO networks, nonstop leftist corporate media campaigns designed to delegitimize Trump and sway sentiment polls, judicial warfare waged by radicalized judges, constant orchestrated scandals and leaks, the involvement of foreign-aligned NGOs, student-driven pressure movements, or even the weaponization of far-left militant groups - all of these elements function as interconnected spokes in a much larger color-revolution wheel - a regime change operation orchsrerated by leftist billionaire kings and Democrats.

The latest example - the scripted "Seditious Six" video urging the military to "refuse illegal orders" without specifying any - fits textbook color-revolution pressure messaging.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=aI1jnwY_

It reads as if the script were lifted straight from a CIA playbook for overseas regime change operations, using pressure campaigns so obvious now that even the average American can recognize what's going on:

1. delegitimization campaign against Trump;
2. framing normal authority as "illegitimate";
3. attempting to mobilize military disobedience;
4. attempt to trigger defection in the military and intelligence world.

Recall that riots in Los Angeles earlier this year were manufactured by leftist groups that were a form of pressure campaign to sow chaos for the administration to sway sentiment polls - yet that backfired.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=RBOpKFz_

New York Times bestselling author Peter Schweizer, along with his lead researcher Seamus Bruner, Jennica Pounds (known as "DataRepublican"), and others such as Mike Benz, have been moving the needle with their observations and bombshell findings on how the dark-money NGO ecosystem operates to conduct color revolution operations not only abroad but increasingly inside the U.S. since Trump's 2016 election.

The search term "color revolution" has risen to the highest levels since the Marxist BLM riots in 2020.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=GvZcmp5N

The constant pressure campaign is worsening - from riots in Los Angeles to Antifa attacks on ICE and Border Patrol. The latest example, the scripted "Seditious Six" video urging the military to "refuse illegal orders," shows the Left growing more desperate as it finds its back against the wall with funding networks being cut.
A big-picture view of the Left's color revolution operation comes from retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who described it on the Alex Jones Show. Flynn urged the Trump administration to immediately address the nation to expose this plot and outline countermeasures (reform the NGO world).

Key Points from Flynn's Remarks:

1. Seditious Conspiracy and Military Incitement: Flynn accuses the "Seditious Six" of releasing a scripted video encouraging U.S. military personnel to disobey lawful orders from Trump if they deem them unethical, calling it "textbook sedition" under federal law (18 U.S.C. § 2387). He highlights Rep. Elissa Slotkin (a former CIA officer) as a key figure, suggesting the group is part of a larger, pre-planned operation involving NGOs, the State Department, and intelligence agencies. Flynn questions who authored their "script" and demands investigations into potential mutiny incitement.
2. History of Lawfare and Deep State Operations: Flynn recounts a timeline of "illegal investigations and lawfare" against Trump since his 2016 victory, including the Russia hoax, impeachments, and recent probes. He frames this as "unrestricted warfare" by the deep state operatives, designed to create chaos and shield figures like Obama from accountability. He warns that opponents "will not roll over" and will escalate with new plans.
3. Flynn emphasizes that Trump must publicly confront this "seditious conspiracy" to rally supporters, protect National Guard troops, and prevent violence. He stresses transparency to counter the "double standard" in the justice system and warns of risks if Republicans in Congress delay cabinet confirmations or fail to act decisively.

Breaking! General Flynn Calls On President Trump To Immediately Address The Nation Concerning The Color Revolution Being Fomented By The Seditious 6 And The CIA As He Lays Out The String Of Illegal Investigations And Law-fare That The Leftist Have Engaged In Since DJT's Historic… pic.twitter.com/HYeXQwCNim
— Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) November 26, 2025

Revelations about left-wing NGOs and activist groups, color-revolution tactics aimed at Trump, riots, and the broader chaos emanating from the Democratic Party, only show the party has no real economic agenda beyond socialism with a sprinkle of toxic Marxism - all point to one core objective: regime change and the destruction of the America First movement.

"People need to understand that if this operation succeeds, things will move quickly - Trump would be removed from the scene almost immediately. Elite defection isn't an early warning sign of an overthrow; it's the final stage before one," DataRepublican told us, adding, "This is why the 'Seditious Six' must face the most severe penalties the law allows."

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"The News You Need Today…For The World You’ll Live In Tomorrow."

What You Aren’t Being Told About The World You Live In

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How Covert American Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive and Destroy Reputations

November 28, 2025
Corruption Police Raid Home Of Top Ukraine Negotiator After He Rejects Trump Peace Plan
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A compelling new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first notes President Putin met with European Union leader Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban this afternoon, says Orban warned right before he arrived in Moscow: “The Americans and the Russians are negotiating about the future, while the Brussels officials are waiting in the hallway, peeking through a keyhole...Europe is still plotting war while everyone else is negotiating for peace”.

During a lengthy press conference yesterday, this report notes, President Putin addressed the 28 Point Peace Plan put forward by President Donald Trump last week, saying it “could become the basis of future agreements”, because it swaps land for peace—Putin warned, however, that it was “legally impossible” to sign a peace treaty with Ukraine now because its unelected leaders seized power in violation of their own constitution—and Putin factually stated the only two options Ukraine has to end the war: “Ukrainian troops will withdraw from the territories they occupy, and then the hostilities will cease...If they don’t withdraw, we’ll achieve this through military means”.

Last Thursday, this report continues, Axios published its bombshell article “Scoop: Trump Plan Asks Ukraine To Cede Additional Territory For Security Guarantee”, and Axios revealed today: “President Trump kickstarted the latest peace talks in Ukraine last week after Vice President Vance, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, made the case that a new 28-point plan could bring a breakthrough...Their White House meeting on Nov. 18 — unreported until now — laid the groundwork for the talks in Geneva last weekend that have given the administration more hope than ever of stopping the war...In the talks, U.S. and Ukrainian officials narrowed a list of 28 conditions in the proposed peace plan to 20 items, and reached substantive agreement on 18...A senior administration official said the other two points haven't been discussed publicly "because they're delicate issues"...Those two issues are likely Ukrainian territorial concessions.

Last Sunday, this report details, top Ukrainian negotiator Andriy Yermak, the second most powerful official in Ukraine and chief aide of unelected Dictator Vladimir Zelensky, met with American officials in Geneva to discuss the President Trump peace plan—then yesterday, Yermak defiantly declared: “Not a single sane person today would sign a document to give up territory...As long as Zelensky is president, no one should count on us giving up territory...He will not sign away territory”.

Less than 24 hours after Yermak made his defiant declaration against the President Trump peace plan yesterday, this report concludes, Ukrainian corruption police forces raided his home and office—and were raids quickly followed by Executive Director Daria Kaleniuk of the Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Action Center revealing: “Usually searches are conducted right before charges are presented to possible suspects...So therefore we can expect today or very soon charges against Andriy Yermak”.

[Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

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November 28, 2025, EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ have been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exemplified in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[
Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

American Orthobros Ignite Global Political Earthquake

America Forgot That Wars Are Won By Schoolteachers, Not Generals

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Silver Uncoils: The Drive to $65 Begins
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=6bmNFF6m
by VBL
Wednesday, Dec 03, 2025 - 12:31
Silver Uncoils Driving Towards $65/oz in 2026
Authored by GoldFix
Coiling is Over, Advancing Now
Silver prices have entered a consolidation phase near the USD 50/oz level following a historic upside run earlier in the year. Price momentum has cooled, but the broader macro framework supporting the move remains in place. Declining real interest rates, persistent sovereign deficit pressures, and structural questions around fiat purchasing power continue to underpin investor interest in precious metals. While silver’s speculative energy has moderated, the pause reflects digestion rather than exhaustion, with the medium-term trend still biased higher provided capital flows reaccelerate.
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UBS Outlook and Price Targets
In the latest note from UBS, Dominic Schnider and Wayne Gordon raised their silver price forecasts by USD 5–8/oz, projecting average prices of USD 60/oz in 2026, with upside excursions toward USD 65/oz possible but unlikely to persist. UBS frames the outlook around the need for stronger investment demand to push prices decisively beyond prior highs, alongside expectations for renewed industrial demand growth into the second half of 2026. While the macro environment broadly remains supportive, the bank cautions that a future stabilization of U.S. interest rates near a neutral level of approximately 3% could temper investor urgency if growth conditions improve materially.
“We have increased our silver price forecasts by USD 5–8/oz and now expect the metal to trade at USD 60/oz in 2026with upside excursions toward USD 65/oz possible ”
- UBS
Demand Dynamics: Industrial Strength Meets Investment Dependence
UBS projects global silver demand to rise modestly to approximately 1.34 billion ounces in 2026 from 1.33 billion ounces this year. Incremental growth is concentrated in electrical and electronics applications, while photovoltaic demand is expected to remain stable near 190–195 million ounces annually. Additional tailwinds may emerge from expanding data-center construction driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure spending and from automotive electrification trends.
These increases are partially offset by weakness across discretionary segments. Jewelry demand is forecast to decline by 6% this year and a further 3% in 2026, while silverware consumption is expected to fall by 13% this year and another 9% next year due to persistent softness across India and broader international markets. Investment demand remains the primary swing factor. UBS estimates net physical and ETP inflows will grow to approximately 420 million ounces in 2026, up from roughly 400 million ounces this year.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...f_1307x704.png

Source: cmxgoldandsilver.com
Supply Outlook: Marginal Growth, Structural Deficits
On the supply side, mine production is forecast to hold near 820 million ounces in 2025 before rising approximately 1.8% to 835 million ounces in 2026. Output gains in Mexico and Russia are expected to offset declines in Peru and Indonesia, leading to limited net expansion. Recycling supply should increase about 1% this year, reaching a 13-year high, driven by elevated scrap recovery from western silverware recycling flows.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...1_376x358.webp

Despite incremental supply growth, UBS expects the physical market to remain in structural deficit. The 2025 shortfall is estimated near 300 million ounces, narrowing only modestly to approximately 293 million ounces in 2026, a deficit profile that continues to underscore the tightness of the global silver balance.
Price Modeling: Gold Anchor and Ratio Path
UBS derives its silver price outlook from its gold target and gold-silver ratio assumptions. With gold projected to trade near USD 4,500/oz in 2026 and economic activity remaining firm enough to support risk appetite, the bank estimates an average gold-silver ratio near 75x, compared with roughly 78x currently. Periodic dips toward 70x are possible, echoing ratio compressions observed following the initial COVID shock in 2021.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...f_1076x735.png

At a 75x ratio, [The ratio is currently at 72 with a $4,200 gold price] silver prices model near USD 60/oz, consistent with the bank’s base-case forecast, while more aggressive, short-lived compressions could support price spikes toward USD 65/oz.
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Initial Unemployment Claims Plunge by 27,000. Is This Plausible?
December 4, 2025

1:29 pm

Initial Unemployment Claims Plunge by 27,000. Is This Plausible?

Economics
Initial claims took a big dive. Let’s review the numbers.


https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1


Initial and continued claims by the Department of Labour

Today, the Department of Labour announced Unemployment Claims for the week ending November 29.

Key Initial Claims Numbers

1. In the week ending November 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 191,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
2. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022, when it was 189,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 216,000 to 218,000.
3. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 223,750 to 224,250.

Key Continued Claims Numbers

1. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending November 22, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
2. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 22 was 1,939,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
3. The previous week’s level was revised down by 17,000 from 1,960,000 to 1,943,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,945,250, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 4,250 from 1,955,750 to 1,951,500.

Seasonal Adjustments

1. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totalled 197,221 in the week ending November 29, a decrease of 49,419 (or -20.0 percent) from the previous week.
2. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 21,172 (or -8.6 percent) from the previous week. There were 211,226 initial claims in the comparable week in 2024.

What Happened?
I suspect three things. First, the seasonal adjustments are messed up.
Second, the number of people eligible to file a claim is dropping. The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file. Tariffs hit small businesses and the self-employed disproportionately.
Third, immigrants (legal or not) are fearful of calling attention to being unemployed.
Continued claims tell a better, yet still incomplete, picture.


Continued Unemployment Claims


https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1


Continued claims and the 4-week moving average of continued claims by the Department of Labour
Continued claims are hovering near the top end of their range.

Q: Have continued claims stabilized?
A: Technically, yes. But practically speaking, they don’t represent what’s really going on.

Continued Claims, 15+ and 27+ Week Unemployed
The combined picture adds those with expired benefits to continued claims.


https://i0.wp.com/mishtalk.com/wp-co...ality=80&ssl=1


Continued unemployment claims monthly average, and long-term unemployment numbers
I discussed the above chart on November 26, 2025, in Grim Unemployment Picture Is the Combined Worst Since October 2021
Four Factors Making Things Worse

1. The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file an unemployment claim.
2. Immigrants are hesitant to file a claim, even those who have been working here for years.
3. Illegal immigrants are highly unlikely to respond to BLS phone calls regarding unemployment. This means the unemployment level itself is undercounted.
4. Twelve states have a maximum of 21 weeks of benefits. Seven states, including Florida, offer 16 weeks of benefits or less. Once someone maxes out benefits, they drop off the continued claims counts.

Initial claims are not a good measure either. The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file. Tariffs hit small businesses and the self-employed disproportionately.
And BLS sampling procedures are known to be suspect. Immigrants and self-employed are not properly counted.
Continued Claims Plus Expired Benefits (Through September)

1. Continued Claims: 1,924,000 (now 1,945,250 4-week moving average)
2. 27+ Weeks Unemployment: 1,814,000 (and rising fast)
3. Continued Claims plus 27+ Weeks Unemployed: 3,738,000

The bare minimum number of adjusted continued claims is 3,738,000.
That’s because we need to add those ineligible for benefits, yet unemployed, to the total. And I say “minimum” because twelve states have a maximum of 21 weeks of benefits. Seven states, including Florida, offer 16 weeks of benefits or less.


Once someone maxes out benefits, they drop off the continued claims counts. Job-hopping also reduces the number of weeks of benefits.

Long-Term Unemployment
The unemployment level is 7,603,000. The 15+ weeks or longer unemployment number is 3,105,000.
Of those unemployed, over 40.8 percent, and rising fast, have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks. This assumes accurate BLS surveys. In practice, the number and percentage are likely to be understated.

The preceding chart is only through September. The BLS cancelled October. November will be delayed.

So, the above chart is the best combined picture we will have for a while.

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https://mises.org/mises-wire/fed-say...e5f3-230184928

Mises Wire

The Fed Says It Is “Data-Driven.” But the Data Isn’t Any Good.

https://cdn.mises.org/styles/respons...?itok=Dye3BPpL08/01/2025•Mises Wire•Ryan McMaken


Listen to this article • 12:59 min

It’s been a big week for “the data.” At Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Fed was holding its policy interest rate steady at the current 4.5 percent. Powell noted that there was no need to cut the rate because the job market is “solid.” Powell engaged in the usual song and dance of declaring that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is data-driven or “data-dependent” and assured the attending members of the press that FOMC policy is carefully implemented by federal employment data (among other data points).

Less than 48 hours later, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) released its July report, revealing that the “solid” job numbers the Fed had allegedly used for the past two months were very wrong. The Bureau of Labour Statistics had greatly overestimated job growth in its earlier reports for May and June.

Then, mere hours after the BLS numbers went public, President Trump announced he was firing the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics. But he wasn’t firing her because the agency’s data was initially wrong. Trump was firing her because Trump thought the revised BLS data was too low and made him look bad.

This leaves us with a couple of questions. The first is this: why are we still expected to take initial BLS job estimates seriously when they are often reduced by 75 percent or more upon later revisions?

The second question is this: what use is the Fed’s supposed devotion to being “data-driven” when the data itself is unreliable, and the Fed is basing its policies on data that turns out to be thoroughly wrong? The answer is: we can’t. The spectacle of the FOMC making policy based on wildly inaccurate employment numbers simply illustrates the absurdity of claims by Fed officials that the central bank can centrally plan the economy by divining the “correct” monetary policy based on government data.

The FOMC Meeting and Powell’s “Solid” Employment Numbers
After announcing it would make no change to the policy interest rate, Powell listed several factors that he said justified this policy. Among these claims was Powell’s assertion that “in the labour market, conditions have remained solid. Payroll job gains averaged 150,000 per month over the past three months. The unemployment rate at 4.1% remains low and has stayed in a narrow range over the past year.”

Throughout the press conference, Powell repeatedly emphasized—as he usually does—that the Fed and the FOMC were basing their policies on federal economic data and that the Fed is, to use an often-employed phrase, “data-dependent.” Notably, Powell also repeatedly emphasized that when it comes to employment data, the Fed is now more interested in the unemployment rate than in job growth or total employment levels.

All this talk of basing monetary policy on “data” is foundational to the central myth of modern central banking: namely, the idea there is that central bankers can centrally plan the economy by somehow calculating at what level to set short-term interest rates to fulfill the Fed’s mandates of full employment and price stability. The questions asked at the press conference by most of the reporters illustrated the success of this central bank propaganda. It was clear that the media audience believed that the Federal Reserve can, somehow, engineer the “right” level of price inflation—currently set at the arbitrary level of 2 percent—while also ensuring a robust job market. All that is required, the narrative goes, is that the Fed’s number crunchers convert government data—like the unemployment rate and the CPI level—into sound monetary policy.

The Federal Job Numbers Are Very Wrong
That was all on Wednesday. Then, on Friday morning, the BLS released new employment numbers, and suddenly all that Fed talk about “solid” job numbers didn’t look so convincing.

Friday’s job report was weak overall, with total job growth in the establishment survey coming in at only 73,000 new jobs (part-time or full-time) month-over-month in July. By itself, that would be fairly bad news and suggest a rapidly weakening job market. But that wasn’t the most notable part of the report. The big news comes from the fact that the total job growth for May and June was massively revised downward. For example, the initial job growth for May was reported by the BLS to be 144,000. But, as of Friday morning, the BLS now tells us that job growth in May was a measly 19,000 jobs. Job data underwent a similar shift for June. Until Friday morning, we were told that the US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, month over month. But, after Friday morning, we’re now told that the real total growth was a mere 14,000. That’s no mere rounding error.

Yet when the FOMC met in June, it was using the old bloated estimate of the May jobs numbers. So, the Fed’s “data-driven” decisions at the time were based on what are now apparently grossly inaccurate stats. Then, when the FOMC met again this month, it was using what now look like inflated job numbers from both May and June.

That suggests the entire enterprise of central planning using BLS data is pretty farcical.

Is the Fed Lying about the Data it Uses?
Given the fact that the FOMC meeting this week occurred so close to the release of new BLS numbers, one might suggest that the Fed wasn’t working with the old May and June stats, but had access to unpublished “better” data. That is, it’s reasonable to suspect that the Fed secretly knew the “real numbers” going into the July FOMC meeting. That may be true, but if true, then the Fed is deliberately participating in deception by repeating job numbers that the Fed knows to be false. For example, if Powell knew the “real” jobs number for May and June at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, why did he say that “Payroll job gains averaged 150,000 per month over the past three months.” That’s not remotely true in light of the revised data. The average monthly job gain for “the past three months”—presumably April, May and June when Powell said this—was 63,000, not 150,000. (The number is even lower if we’re talking about May, June, and July.) If Powell knew the revised numbers on Wednesday, then he lied to the public when he claimed the “150,000” number.

Powell’s knowledge of the troubling revised numbers may have also motivated his comments about how the FOMC and the Fed are now really concentrating on the unemployment rate. It may be that, knowing that job growth had tanked in May, June, and July, Powell wanted to drive home that he is no longer paying attention to job growth numbers but is focused on the unemployment rate. After all, if one looks only at the unemployment rate, things look pretty good. Even in the new July report from Friday morning, the unemployment rate only slightly increased, rising to 4.2 percent in July.

This number is belied, however, by continued declines in the labour force participation rate. In July, that rate fell to 62.2 percent. Excepting the COVID period—when the federal government was using printed money to essentially pay people to not work—the labour force participation rate is now at the lowest it’s been in more than a decade. If the labour participation rate were at more normal levels, the unemployment rate would be significantly higher.

In any case, it is strange for the Fed to suddenly start suggesting that job growth numbers aren’t that important two days before it becomes publicly obvious that job growth numbers at the BLS are so thoroughly unreliable.

The lesson here is that the Fed’s repeated claims to be “data-driven” are mostly political theatre. Even if the employment data represented amazingly accurate estimates, the Fed would still not be able to centrally plan or calculate the “correct” interest rates. As it is, the Fed doesn’t even have convincing employment numbers.

Trump Fires the BLS Commissioner
Within hours of the BLS’s new report going public, Trump announced that he would fire BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer. This move was hailed by the usual MAGA-style disciples of the Trump administration, who joined Trump in claiming that McEntarger was manipulating jobs reports for “political purposes.” Trump insists that the BLS numbers are too low and don’t reflect the fact that the US economy, thanks to Trump’s economic brilliance, is booming. But one could be forgiven for being confused here. If Trump is firing McEntarfer for publishing inaccurate numbers, is she being fired for the initial estimates—which made the job market look good—or is she being fired for the revised numbers? If she is trying to make Trump look bad, why did she first release numbers that made the job market look—to use Powell’s term—” solid”? Trump certainly had no problem with the reports released by McEntarger two months ago when the initial May data was released. At the time, time, Trump declared “GREAT JOB NUMBERS...!”

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McEntarger’s methods have benefited Trump. After all, it’s that initial release of data that gets the most headlines, and it’s the revisions that are usually forgotten and swept under the rug. McEntarger is doing the same thing she did during the Biden administration: release positive initial data, and then revise down the numbers after the fact. The overall effect is to benefit the incumbent administration, regardless of whether the incumbent is Biden or Trump. Trump seems to be too obtuse to understand this.

We know the answer to these questions, of course. McEntarger is only being fired for inaccuracies that make Trump look bad. Trump only cares about “inaccurate” job numbers when they are “too low.” So, we have no reason to expect the data to get any more accurate any time soon.
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By Christopher Whalen


July 25, 2025


Is True Value in Crypto or Gold?

With the Trump Administration headed down the road to higher inflation and the political chaos that results, it is worth asking why there are only” $4 trillion in notional crypto tokens, according to the Financial Times. The rise of bitcoin and other ethereal instruments evidences a strong desire on the part of many Americans to escape a sinking ship, but also confirms the love for creating new games to enable speculation. Are the crypto tokens a way to avoid the demise of fiat dollars?

As we noted in a recent comment in The Institutional Risk Analyst, the best returns in crypto at present are found investing in the stocks of some of the enablers. The fact that these new companies may or may not be stable businesses long-term does not matter in the speculative environment that currently governs Wall Street. We are particularly fascinated by the idea that a crypto firm can generate enough revenue to survive as a bank.

Robinhood Markets, for example, is up almost 500% in the past year, proving that there is a lot more leverage for investors in the facilitators of speculation in crypto and stablecoins than in the tokens themselves. Crypto-laden “special purpose acquisition companies” (SPACs) and various new, “Level 2” token games linked to existing crypto “markets” are the hot ticket today.

But the larger query, beyond the issues raised by bitcoin and substitutes, is the question about the nature of money. In my new book, “Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream,” author James Rickards notes that Americans “no longer know what money is” and have replaced “money with moneyness.” He then describes why money is one of the foundations of civilization.

“Money is not the point of civilization and it’s far from the most important feature,” Rickards argues. “Still, it’s part of the bedrock and performs crucial roles. Money is an advance on barter. Money is an alternative to violence. Money facilitates commerce and investment and acts as a store of wealth. Money is among the institutions, along with law, religion, and the family, that enable civilizations to be civil and avoid a Hobbesian war of all against all.”

Even though President Trump wants to make America the crypto capital of the world, and even threatens to open retirement accounts to these speculative notions, the rest of the world is migrating away from dollars back to the only true form of money that is not some form of debt, namely gold. Perhaps the most significant trend is the increasing purchases of gold by global central banks.

On July 1st, 2025, Basel III banking regulations officially reclassified physical gold as a Tier 1 asset, specifically a high-quality liquid asset (HQLA). This means that U.S. banks can now count physical gold at 100% of its market value towards their core capital reserves. Previously, gold was considered a Tier 3 asset, requiring banks to discount its value. But what is the proper discount rate for crypto and stablecoins?

A stable coin is a ridiculously expensive prepaid gift card. A stable coin, for example, backed by fiat dollars, does not change your fundamental economic and financial risk from holding dollar assets. You pay for the privilege of using a stable coin. The public mania around stablecoins is the latest evidence that humans are incapable of making rational decisions when they are part of a crowd. Long-term, we should view stablecoins as marketing tools for large advertisers to acquire and retain customers.

A stable coin backed by yen or Swiss francs, for example, is a very different proposition in terms of managing dollar risk, but such instruments also may fall afoul of state and federal securities laws. So how do individuals and countries protect themselves from the slow but inevitable decline of the dollar as the world’s primary money?

Owning gold or at least having exposure to the price of gold is perhaps the best option. The physical metal is independent of the fortunes of the state, yet as we learned in the 1930s, gold is vulnerable to confiscation.

More important to the analysis, however, may be the fact that so few investors have yet to rebalance their portfolio to reflect the opportunity presented as gold resumes its role as the world’s primary reserve asset.H ow much is the current allocation to gold by global investors?

“My rough guess, excluding central banks and physical gold in private hands, would be maybe 1% of portfolios globally and perhaps half of that amount for US investors,” notes Henry Smith, Director and Investment Manager, The Keep Fund Ltd., a Bahamas SMART Fund investing in the precious metals complex. “In your grandfather’s day, a trust portfolio would be 10% minimum in gold. We’re headed back there. That means we’re headed to five-digit gold and three-digit silver.”

Other mainstream analysts agree with Smyth’s prognostication. “Earlier this year, we examined the structural shift in gold’s demand and geopolitically influenced pricing drivers fueling its rebasing higher, ultimately posing the question if $4,000/oz is in the cards,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, in a June 2025 research note.

“To answer the question — yes, we think it is, particularly now with recession probabilities and ongoing trade and tariff risks. We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly,” Kaneva added.

The reason JPMorgan is right and, indeed, still too cautious on their gold outlook is that the usage of gold as a reserve asset, legal tender in contracts and collateral for financial transactions is growing, yet this is a gradual process. The narrowing of the market for US Treasury collateral as central banks reduce their purchases in favour of gold is still not top of mind – yet – for US investors, but higher interest rates for LT Treasury paper will end that lethargy.

One of the chief reasons to be bullish on gold and negative on the dollar is that there is so little deliverable gold available. A lack of deliverable gold supply can create upward pressure on prices, but other factors like demand fluctuations, market sentiment, and the role of gold as a financial asset significantly influence its short-term price. Even with limited physical supply, demand and overall market conditions can moderate price increases.

“De-dollarization — a theme among foreign reserve managers and investment institutions who are typically slow to act — is a misnomer as it’s highly unlikely anyone is seriously considering fully divesting themselves of US assets, argues Simon White of Bloomberg. “But the evolution of events this year has led many foreign investors to consider reducing their exposure to the US, which had already grown imprudently large.

This will take time to show up in the data.”

Editor’s note: Find more of Chris’s writing at his website, The Institutional Risk Analyst. Chris is also a frequent guest on financial shows and podcasts. Search him up on YouTube and you’ll find plenty of great content.

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