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  • #1,621
  • Dec 7, 2006 3:22am Dec 7, 2006 3:22am
Quoting dottore
Thank you very much Jacko for your enlightening comments... Interesting insight in market mechanics. Thanks again.
Thanks for your kind words.

I just like to keep an eye on the macro issues. I am a trend trader. I was long from 1.2500 to 1.3124. I then got out, then back in again 1.3200. (having said that, sometimes I "play" with some short term trades, but only to satisfy my occasional adrenalin driven, speculative urges)

I am a longer term trader than most traders here and so I am more "fundamentals-aware" lately. I suppose I just want to know why a market is trending in a certain direction

The longer the time frame, the more you need to be aware of the fundamentals...but I always trade off the charts.
  • #1,622
  • Dec 7, 2006 3:27am Dec 7, 2006 3:27am
Quoting dottore
From this graph it can (at least 4 me) also be a Guppy bubble signalling overheated market. Hmmmm...
Cheers dottore for another perspective, Still new to the GMMA so i will go and find out about this bubble you talk of and see if i can spot it as well.

Enjoy
Ademac
  • #1,623
  • Dec 7, 2006 3:31am Dec 7, 2006 3:31am
Quoting magicfx
and also help the ford etc, ....

if they go bust, what ya going to with detroit, sell it to disney land?
1. General Motors is already basically "bust"...its bonds are junk bonds, its making massive losses and it is hugely in debt (mainly to its ex-employees via its overly generous redundancy deals).

2. China is already seriously considering buying LARGE US manufacturers (eg GM) and moving the manufacturing back to China. You will soon see "designed by GM...manufactured in China" cars in US sooner than you think.

3. GM now has a joint GM-China venture already in China. Launched within the last 3 months. GM's intellectual property is already being moved to China.

Detroit will become a big parking lot.

(PS. Lenova is a China govt-backed company that bought IBM...the once mighty Big Blue)
  • #1,624
  • Dec 7, 2006 3:37am Dec 7, 2006 3:37am
one other interesting point is that gordon brown announced another 1.25p on the price of fuel yesterday which came into effect at midnight last night, though small with the $30 drop in the price of oil has had little or no effect on the cost of fuel in the u.k. still around the 90p per litre mark, all this will add to inflation
  • #1,625
  • Dec 7, 2006 3:51am Dec 7, 2006 3:51am
i think the reversal of gbp will start later on..
  • #1,626
  • Dec 7, 2006 4:40am Dec 7, 2006 4:40am
Magicfx,

Quote
everyones expecting 2.00 for cable, but have thought very little about what may happen after!

slightly out of context with our day to day activities and rubbing of the worry beads but here's where we are going.....
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  • #1,627
  • Dec 7, 2006 5:00am Dec 7, 2006 5:00am
the %'s are based on 100% being all open positions. The color fills up or down to a % level at any given price. You can see a bunch of traders that do not like to be wrong and are holding on.

By the way, GBP futures contracts are due to expire around the 17th or 18th. There are a ton of commercial traders that have been short for the last 4 to 5 weeks now at a rate of 10 short to 1 long.
  • #1,628
  • Dec 7, 2006 5:08am Dec 7, 2006 5:08am
IBM sold only the PC business (Thinkpads, etc) to Lenovo.
Quoting jacko
(PS. Lenova is a China govt-backed company that bought IBM...the once mighty Big Blue)
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #1,629
  • Dec 7, 2006 5:09am Dec 7, 2006 5:09am
Quoting Xerof
Magicfx,

slightly out of context with our day to day activities and rubbing of the worry beads but here's where we are going.....

It could be that I am just being dense this early morning, and if so I apologize, but how are you coming up with the 1.618%?

The concern I have is that this pair is seriously over bought and has been for a long time and on every time frame. While I believe that the pair may rise in 2007 to levels above 2, I am not convinced that it will be in the immediate future and most likely not without a serious retracement first.
  • #1,630
  • Dec 7, 2006 5:28am Dec 7, 2006 5:28am
Moonchild,

this is a monthly chart, and so should be taken in that context. As I inferred, for most, if not all of us, it has no immediate relevance to our trading, other than to demonstrate that we are in a very long term uptrend for the next few years......and then it's only getting back to levels seen a mere generation ago...

1.618% is a standard fib extension, as I'm sure you know, but lets just see if we get to 2.2900 odd by 2011 first , then decide whether it proceeds to 2.6400...lol

Oh, to answer your question......A went from 1.3680 to 1.9550, so 161% extension from B (1.7045), gives you 2.6543
  • #1,631
  • Dec 7, 2006 5:35am Dec 7, 2006 5:35am
Quoting Xerof
Moonchild,

this is a monthly chart, and so should be taken in that context. As I inferred, for most, if not all of us, it has no immediate relevance to our trading, other than to demonstrate that we are in a very long term uptrend for the next few years......and then it's only getting back to levels seen a mere generation ago...

1.618% is a standard fib extension, as I'm sure you know, but lets just see if we get to 2.2900 odd by 2011 first , then decide whether it proceeds to 2.6400...lol
As I said, I apologize for being dense, since the source of the percentage is now obvious. My only excuse is that it is 0230 here now.

And yes I am old enought to remember GBP being 3, in fact for most of my lifetime.
  • #1,632
  • Dec 7, 2006 5:44am Dec 7, 2006 5:44am
Yes, I have to admit to being 'senior' enough to remember 3 as well...my only regret is I didn't short it....lol
  • #1,633
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:11am Dec 7, 2006 6:11am
This is what I see using Elliott wave. This is not a recommendation but rather a possible filter. Checkout also the H4 and H1 if they are trending down. Anything can happen like news.
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I'm a disciplined trader and that's the only way I trade.
  • #1,634
  • Dec 7, 2006 1:43pm Dec 7, 2006 1:43pm
this is how i see it
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THEY CAN TAKE MY MONEY BUT THE CAN NEVER TAKE AWAY MY DREAMS.....ZZZZZZZZZZ
  • #1,635
  • Dec 7, 2006 8:34pm Dec 7, 2006 8:34pm
Good God, folks, I didn't mean to start a juggernaut thread! I was just making money shorting this pair and thought I'd share my thinking with you all. My terminology was incorrect, however.

"Reversal" is a loaded word to a lot of people in this market. To a guy who trades 5 minute charts it means 15 pips. To someone who trades daily charts it means 500 pips. Let's call it a consolidation, a reversal, a fart, or a burp, whatever.

All I know is that I made cash on shorts of late when everyone was still longing it. I guess I'd call it an overblown trend, it had to blow out somewhere, and it did. I just waited for it and recognized it, thanks to Tom Demark, among others. How far away from the longer-term avarages can price actually get on the spot market before the two converge?
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,636
  • Dec 7, 2006 8:40pm Dec 7, 2006 8:40pm
BTW, I actually print out daily candlestick charts on paper, sit down with a drink, count candles to figure out the TD sequential, and draw trendlines on them with a ruler and crayola colored pencils. Basically a crayon. So I chart the dailies with a crayon.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,637
  • Dec 7, 2006 8:49pm Dec 7, 2006 8:49pm
Quoting dukeofdents
BTW, I actually print out daily candlestick charts on paper, sit down with a drink, count candles to figure out the TD sequential, and draw trendlines on them with a ruler and crayola colored pencils. Basically a crayon. So I chart the dailies with a crayon.
People would laugh, but I actually trade the QQQQ that way.
Mr. Trend
  • #1,638
  • Dec 7, 2006 8:54pm Dec 7, 2006 8:54pm
Mr.Trend,

You've actually turned out to be a pretty okay dude despite our previous mutual pugilism.

That's funny as hell that you actually paper chart. Why, though? Computers can totally eliminate dreaded emotion and discretion in trading, which is why we see so many electronic billionaires today...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #1,639
  • Dec 7, 2006 9:08pm Dec 7, 2006 9:08pm
hell duke earned my respect for being a body man. but i believe were just corrective and the price will go up till the end of the year. im guess in 07 there will be a major fall. just my gut talking on that one
  • #1,640
  • Dec 7, 2006 9:14pm Dec 7, 2006 9:14pm
Like I said, bro, one man's reversal is another man's consolidation, and it's another man's continuation pattern. It all depends on your personal time frame...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
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