Only EURUSD

No pips made today! Bulls still pushing so 1.1613 can be taken out. Lets see what next hours/days will bring. I'll have to close for the week. It was nice trading with all have a great weekend!

The EUR/USD closed up this week. After a sell-off to 1.1491 earlier, it rose to a significant level of resistance at 1.1608, reached 1.1613, and consolidated below this level. It is now waiting for further news to start the next week. Support is located at the 1.1547/55 zone, and buyers should keep those lows in place so that higher targets can be achieved towards 1.1700. Some of the resistance levels are 1.1656 and 1.1669. On the other hand, sellers must continue the selling from the recently printed high (1.1613) and break the support zone so they can target 1.1511-1.1491 next.

Weekly volatility (range) 88 pips

Significant news - US ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index & Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.


Have a great weekend!

4H

EURUSD H4
trendlines and patterns
full chart

Very interesting chart, so many patterns..

OVERALL COMBINATION (this is very strong):
big rising wedge
small rising wedge ... „wedge in wedge“
falling wedge (counter-trend)
diamond
diagonal R (red, very strong)
All of this = extreme pressure toward SHORT.

1.Diamond – upper edge
-captures large swings
-has both horizontal and diagonal edges
-is a reversal pattern
-forms major H4 / multi-H4 pivots
-contains a liquidity cluster
-the main break point is above the shoulder of the wedge
-gray upper diagonal (diamond top) breaks exactly at 1.1630.
-the diamond has the highest weight of all patterns → its upper edge = very strong R.

2.Large blue rising wedge – upper touch
→ you have multi-line confluence resistance.
and small rising wedge (green) creates compression before the breakout
The higher probability is BREAK DOWN (since it is a rising wedge in the bearish context of the diamond)

3.H4 pivot HIGH exactly in that area
Pivot + diagonal = extremely strong obstacle.

4.EQ Highs + liquidity cluster
In the 1.16280 – 1.16320 region sits a liquidity “blade” → many SLs above the swing highs.
Price is heading there to grab them.
After that, a rejection is highly likely.

Summary
R ≈ 1.16280 – 1.16340 (Main)
The strongest resistance on the chart.
Probability = 70–80% (because of diamond + wedge + EQ highs)

Can a falling wedge stop the drop? And break through the resistance? Does this pattern have enough strength?
A falling wedge is only a temporary support.

A falling wedge CAN:
– stop the drop between 1.1580 – 1.1560
– give a bounce upward
– push the price back into 1.1620 – 1.1630 (R)

A falling wedge will probably NOT:
– break out above 1.1630
– flip the trend upward
– continue straight to 1.17+

Why not?
Because above the wedge there is:
– the diamond (main pattern)
– the big rising wedge resistance
– multiple diagonal confluences
– the H4 pivot high
– the liquidity cluster
That is simply too strong of a multi-resistance.

MAIN INVALIDATION (the most important)

The most dominant structure is the rising channel.
Only after breaking above 1.16130 does the market have a real chance to test 1.1630 – 1.16340.

Resistance: 1.16280 – 1.16340
H1 close above 1.16340 → resistance is broken
H1 rejection in the 1.16280–1.16340 zone → short remains valid

If, after reaching the R zone, we are unable to keep the price above Friday’s highs,
it means the resistance is holding and the short becomes dominant again.

Unless this rising channel remains bull has the room to go further up. Target 1666

Bias is long. I think we will retrace to around 1.16030 before continuing downward. Looking for a buy signal/tap into the 1.15890-1.15860 zone

15min RSI has bounced off the 30 level a few times previously, keeping an eye on confluences around that area.

Target 1.16250

Just my two cents! Good luck everyone!

The EUR/USD rose to 1.1616 but failed to hold above resistance at 1.1613 and dropped back inside the range, with the 1.1555 level supporting a continuation higher to 1.1649 or 1.1656/69 zone should come if volume and conditions allow.

In the case of a further drop below the weekly pivot at 1.1570, I expect the support level to hold. If it does not, however, then sellers should step in and drive the pair lower toward 1.1527 weekly S1 or the 1.1500/11 zone.

Daily volatility (range) 35 pips

Significant news - US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Have a great week!

EUSUSD H4,H1
trendlines, patterns

3 rising wedges
We have 3 rising wedges on the chart and plenty of time to go down…
The rising channel still has a valid structure.
As long as the price stays inside the channel, its upper boundary is a magnet.

And the market loves to:
‘touch the diagonal → sweep → only then reverse.’

3 wedges = weakening waves → they need one last push upward.
Yes, the market still has room to rise.

And it’s even very likely, because there is liquidity sitting above the wedge.
But that rise won’t be long — more like a final spike, not a new trend.”

The diamond pattern is invalid.
The price moved ABOVE the entire upper diagonal of the diamond.

EURUSD H1

and now....
new pattern - H&S
falling wedges...

Eu will reach at 1st resistance with once or will consolidate again at 1.1600. For a bearish case that's out for now as long the daily low holds.

yup more bullish than bearish

Entry missed by 5 pips! Happy with my analysis though! No trades today, see ya for the kill zone!

don't u just h8 that, it's like the market knows and refuses to trigger your winner but will seek out sl

Yea, I thought it would take the liquidity above the Nov. 13th high.

Next stop 1.1656/69 as long as stay above todays resistance - 1.1616. Then 1.1600-1.1590 still support.

A rise needs more time as it looks like and will come back tomorrow to trade again. Until then have a nice rest of the day!

Looking for a retrace to the 1.16300 area before a drop to the bottom of the upward channel, target 1.15800.

Keeping an eye on the 1H FVG right above our current price for a possible bounce point.

Green pips for all!

The EUR/USD dropped to 1.1604 in Asia after it hit a high of 1.1652 yesterday. Support is located near the 1.1600-1.1590 zone, and as long as the pair is trading above it, it has a chance to rise to the range high of 1.1652. If the price moves lower, the 1.1570 weekly pivot is below and may offer more consolidation later, but with a more bearish bias.

Daily volatility (range) 44 pips

Have a great day!

1H

If we look at EUR/USD on the daily chart, we can't deny the fact that it is in a bearish trend since end of september. It is making consistentlly LH and LL with the price action really nice, connecting the supply zone perfectlly and reactiong from them after taking liquidity.


We now face the same situation, with a LH marked and a structure that failed to break the LL. Price retraced back to the HTF supply zone, taking some of the liquidity resting in the supply and right now we are waiting for a clear reaction from the HTF orderflow.

On LTF, the bulls came and created their bullish orderflow, with really nice demand zones protected each time since the failed of breaking the structure.

For now, we have this battle of the supply and demand, bears vs bulls, where we need to be really cautios. I am interested in a more strength in USD even if rate cut decisions are pretty much to happen, i consider that USD can still recover the year loss.

Fractal Structural point of view, we already changed the direction to the downside, a clear reaction from the first liquidity swiped, but we are still inside a LTF demand zone. For me to have a better confluence on shorting and adding to this position would be to see another leg down into the fractal view of the market, and creating the bearish ordeflow to put presher on the buyers. After the bearish orderflow on LTF aligns with the bearish ordeflow on HTF, the ultimate confirmation would be achived and therefore we can se a new leg down.

If the price refuses to make a bearish orderflow, could be that the LTF bullish orderflow can finally push the price into the upside, breaking the supply chain and getting control of a uptrend for EURUSD, leaving both an orderflow with lots of liquidity inside but also a new protected demand zone on HTF.



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EU...ply-vs-demand/

I have two scenarios on my mind first wait for the parallel channel to break downside and then enter short or wait for the resistance zone 1.16520-1.16650 to break and then enter longs . right now i will wait patiently and let the market to give me a signal

bull might take us to 1660-80 level then we will see if bear kicks in