The PriceBob Strategy

Something is definitely going on today. Look at the volume on GU. Same on most major pairs.

I'm sure that the CME futures being down since before the London open has a lot to do with it. I may be wrong, but my understanding is that institutional foreign exchange traders rely upon US listed futures to hedge positions. When their hedging market is unavailable (or unreliable) it will likely limit spot trading as well.

I'm not sure how reliable spot volume data is, however, it probably has value on a relative basis.

Day #4:

Gold Short: 7.30 - 8.00 AM fixed bar (SL hit)

Should've stayed away from market today due to its volatility but here we go.

btw this looks sus

CME futures market was still halted.

You should not trade derivative markets like CFD's at bucket shops when the true market is closed.

Where are you trading from? Do you not have access to the CME exchange listed futures markets?

If you do have access, don't be stubborn. Forget FXCM and open an account with Ninjatrader or AMP Futures or Interactive Brokers. If you don't have the funds to meet account minimums, sign up for the cheapest prop firm evaluation you can afford.

At the very least you must be on top of what the futures markets are doing. If US futures are not trading then you shouldn't be trading either.

I'm trading from India. I don't have access to CME exchange listed futures markets unfortunately. I currently trade using CFD prop firm evaluation 5%ers.

https://tradeday.freshdesk.com/en/su...ited-countries

You really need to be willing to do some research and put in some effort if you wish to make it in this business.

Unless you are a citizen of a prohibited country, you should have access to US based prop firms that accept Indian citizens.

Just another excuse and by staying with a CFD firm you will have someone other than yourself to blame when you fail.

There is a world of difference between "can't" and "won't."

If you are unable to change for the better, then you "can't" change.

If you are able to change but unwilling to do so, then you "won't" change."

I think that that is the underlying basis for this truth stated 40 years ago by trading legend Ed Seykota:

"A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That's the kind of thing winning traders do." - Ed Seykota

"A losing trader isn't going to want to transform himself." That is, a losing trader won't transform himself, though he would otherwise be able.

And this reminds me of something I remarked here in the thread recently:

If success is indeed a choice, then the difference between those who become successful and those who fail is that those who succeeded chose to do the this they could do in order to become successful, while those who failed and continue to fail simply won't do those things that successful people are willing to do.

Yes I've heard of topstep, apex etc. I've also heard that the challenge rules are more strict than cfd, which makes sense now. I'll do more research on it. Thanks for you concern Vidvad.

Stay away from Apex.

Topstep or TradeDay.

"More strict?" I don't know what that could possibly mean, but I will say that the looser the rules the more likely you are being set up to sabotage your own efforts.

But your response indicates that you were aware that exchange listed futures products were available to you but that you not only chose NOT to trade them, but that you chose to be dishonest as to the reason why you chose poorly.

I'll help anyone if I am able. But man, there is no helping someone who is dishonest with himself and others about why he is where he is in his trading journey.

The roulette epiphany was my coming to terms with the fact that I hadn't been honest with myself about many things. But my dishonesty was because I was subconsciously fooling myself, that is, letting my ego fool me. I was outright lying to myself or others.

Trading success is about taking personal responsibility for your trading, and you can't take responsibility if you are so easily dishonest with yourself and with others.

Did nothing last two days and .....

Vidvad, I didn't know topstep is CME listed. I'm not into futures I started with forex and I trade only gold now. Later I've heard of futures prop firms and it's having monthly subscription, trailing drawdown etc. My brain only understood one word "complex". I didn't care that it's safe and regulated than CFDs until recently.

I was thinking that I need to develop a profitable system first then I can explore other markets like futures etc. I have realised that the CFD brokers are not reliable recently after you have mentioned it. I agree, it's my mistake to take the easiest path blindly without doing proper research.

If you still consider me dishonest, sorry.

I watched your videos 2 months ago and did it myself. For me, just watching it, I knew how to do it. It's just a candlestick. And the truth is, I don't have any other questions to message you. I backtested it myself and found my own fixed bar. For me, it's better to learn by myself.
If I had a method to make money, I would focus on it and do it quietly, and spend my free time on my family and my travel hobbies.
However, I see you enthusiastically sharing it with many others and even replying to many people's private messages while no matter how many times you say it, it's still just a fixed candlestick. Haha. I really admire your tolerance and giving.
I would think that posting a youtube video to share is more than enough and blessings will come to those who take the time and practice it. Whether or not the viewer makes a profit is none of my business. Since I'm a self-taught learner, I can't be patient with someone or ask questions that already have answers. Lol

I'm surprised that you "wasted" your time posting here to imply that vidvad is an idiot for "wasting" his time" giving his time and knowledge to help others.

You are what you think.
I think I am praising Vidvad with a generous heart. I see that the author has explained very well in the videos he posts and just watch the videos over and over again to understand. I am emphasizing to those who are too impatient to sit through all the videos and follow

A lot of "I" in your response. The world is not about you. Some people understand that is better to give than to receive, like Vidvad. You do not belong to those people obviously.

I'll pop this out here to be notoriously shot down by the FF 'legends and influencers', this thread is one of the best. One of the few threads that openly challenges the trader first, and the 'system' second. 95% of people will pass this by, as I would have done many years ago. But if you are serious about this business, discipline is everything.

You are right. Vidvad taught me not only about the fixed bar but also his lesson about giving.

What's interesting to me here is that you are so confident that you "get it," so to speak, that you think that this entire thread can be summarized so facilely as "it's just a candlestick."

It is not. Let's forget for now that the plan presented here is not a candlestick at all (This is the fixed bar method, not the fixed candlestick method. Candlesticks are themselves itself a type of indicator that brings too much unnecessary information into the plan, in my opinion).

But to dwell too long on that issue would be to fall into and thus perpetuate the same error that I ama highlighting in your understanding, so let me move to the heart of the matter:

This thread is NOT a thread about a candlestick. Nor even "just a bar." rogerha, by comparison, clearly "gets it."

This thread is about creating a simple, yet fully formed trading plan that allows the trader, as rogerha so simply yet elegantly states, to challenge himself.

I am not a fan of AI youtube, but this little channel has posted a number of little videos that, imo, strike at the heart of the matter. In fact, at times I've suspected that this content creator is a FF member who is using this thread as the inspiration for his videos lol. This particular video goes to the heart of what is missing when anyone says that this thread is "just about a candlestick."



From this video: "Here's a crazy fact. A simple coin flip with a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio outperforms 80% of retail traders. Really think about that for a second. If that doesn't make you question everything you know about trading, nothing will. Here's the setup. Imagine a trader that makes decisions by literally flipping a coin. If it's heads, they go long. If it's tails, they go short. They risk exactly $1 for every $1 they're trying to make. a perfect one:1 risk-reward ratio. They have a stop-loss at negative one and a take profit at positive one every single time. No analysis, no indicators, no gut feelings, just a coin, probability, and ironclad discipline. According to multiple studies, including data from major brokerages and academic research, this mindless, emotionless, completely random strategy would outperform more than 80% of retail traders. Let that sink in. Eight out of 10 people who spend hours analyzing charts, studying technical analysis, reading market news, and stressing over risk to reward ratios are doing worse than a quarter. Not because the coin toss is good, but because humans are that bad at handling uncertainty."

"let's understand why the mindless coin toss strategy outperforms the vast majority of traders. It's not about the strategy. It's not about the market analysis, and it's not about the RR ratio either. What destroys 80% of traders is that they lack the execution discipline to stick to their system."

And I, myself, would state this idea even more strongly and say that "What destroys 99.999999999999999999999% of traders that they lack the execution discipline to stick to their rules."

As to why I do what I do here, you clearly do not recognize the benefit that comes to one who continually is called upon to review, revise, refine, and repeat the thoughts that are the foundation of his trading principles and practices.

As exhausting as some individual participants are here, I benefit immensely from my own continuing examination of what I think, what I do, and how I've attempted to explain to others what I think and what I do. So there is a bit of self interest here on my part. However, it is not self-interest of the ego as I prefer to remain anonymous, and eventually I will no doubt withdraw completely from FF and the internet and go back to living a completely private life as a trader such as I lived before I joined here in 2022. And it is not self-interest of greed as I have no desire whatsoever to monetize what I've learned and what I try to share here. It is self-interest driven by the desire for self-knowledge: The desire for me to continue to uncover things about myself and the markets and trading that I do not yet know that I do not know.

In short, you sell this thread and its purpose and its content and even myself short by stating that it is just about a candlestick. In fact, your assessment couldn't be farther off the mark.

There are those who think they know it all. I was one of them for the longest time. However, the roulette epiphany opened my eyes to a world in which I suddenly realized that there was so much that I did not know. My aim in this thread has been to share the process I have used myself to identify those things I thought I knew but didn't, and to recognize those things of which I had previously been unaware, but now I know I do not know them. And in order to grow as a trader, and as a human being, I now see that the main purpose of any activity worthy of pursuing should be to fulfill the unfulfillable desire to understand all the things about myself and the world in which I find myself that I do not yet know that I do not know.