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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #8,361
  • Nov 22, 2025 8:47am Nov 22, 2025 8:47am
GBP/USD Long trade
The price dropped below the whole number 1.31000 and activity increased significantly.
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  • #8,362
  • Nov 25, 2025 11:04am Nov 25, 2025 11:04am
EURGBP.... Rare Highs.... One To Watch.... Heading South Soon?

There is enough there for it to happen. It might now be starting the breakout. Please do your own due diligence. Trade light relative to account equity!
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  • #8,363
  • Nov 27, 2025 10:38am Nov 27, 2025 10:38am
EURGBP.... Rare Highs.... One To Watch.... Heading South Soon?

It has begun. Where will it finish the year.....? Do your own due diligence and trade light relative to account equity.
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  • #8,364
  • Nov 29, 2025 4:50pm Nov 29, 2025 4:50pm
EURGBP.... Rare Highs.... One To Watch.... Heading South Soon?

If you are tired of waiting for this to breakout and drop, then take a look at the volume on Friday, as the MPMs supported price above a key level. We don't know how price will be manipulated next, but we might reason this is just too much volume when nothing is about to happen. Please do your own due diligence.
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  • #8,365
  • Dec 1, 2025 9:12pm Dec 1, 2025 9:12pm
EURGBP.... Rare Highs.... One To Watch.... Heading South Soon?

Here we are on the first day of trading of the last month of the year. What happened Friday after all that extremely high volume last Thursday? What happened is what has been happening quite often lately..... another move back higher, presumably to hit another crop of new stops. Regardless, we can reliably fall back on "Buy low. Sell high!", and this price area is significantly high on the Day chart. You can study the annotated attached chart and perhaps see the possibility by the end of December, a month with a lot of dull trading, price could still arrive in the RML area. On one or more of those dull trading days the MPMs might make some substantial moves, which is less costly for them when there is the absence of others competing for available liquidity. As always, please do your own due diligence.
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  • #8,366
  • Dec 1, 2025 11:34pm Dec 1, 2025 11:34pm
GBPCAD Bullish MM behavior?

Last week we printed the highest volume since April on red candles with long lower wicks and closes back above the 1.85000 (Whole Level). That isn't bearish continuation, that's bulls grabbing liquidity under a key level. Every push below the WL gets hit with stopping volume and price is lifted right back up. If this was real bear pressure the level would have broken already.
Classic MM play: run it down, fill orders, hold price above the level. When they're done loading, they'll decide where to take it. We cannot know what the MMs will do next, so use your own due diligence.

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  • #8,367
  • Edited 1:36am Dec 2, 2025 12:49am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting rage22
GBPCAD Bullish MM behavior? Last week we printed the highest volume since April on red candles with long lower wicks and closes back above the 1.85000 (Whole Level). That isn't bearish continuation, that's bulls grabbing liquidity under a key level. Every push below the WL gets hit with stopping volume and price is lifted right back up. If this was real bear pressure the level would have broken already. Classic MM play: run it down, fill orders, hold price above the level. When they're done loading, they'll decide where to take it. We cannot know...
GBPCAD Bullish MM behavior?

This chart outlines the day of high volume and the inset rectangle shows the high volume separate from the volume for the rest of the day. As you can see, the high volume we are concerned with is a huge % of the total day volume..... maybe 85-90% of the total. Look closely and see that most of this volume is in the upper 30% of the total range of this day! This gets us back to the fundamental: Buy low, sell high! So, it looks like this is an indication of bearishness, not bullishness. Of course, we still do not know how the price will be moved next. However, on this M30 chart we see the trends have now become stacked bearish.

In all fairness to rage22, who posted above about possible bullishness, we must all admit to ourselves that trading successfully is NOT easy. With hundreds of indicators available, not one of them predicts price accurately! And the reason is they are ALL based on THE PRICE! All indicators are a derivative of the prices. Except VOLUME of course, which is why we use it when many do not. And we accept as true that success in trading can only be had by........BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. So, it is up to us to determine if volume is favoring the higher or the lower prices. We have more than a "fair" chance if we stick to this and we wait for a trade in the appropriate direction when PA breaks the upcoming notable SR in that direction. We work this way to keep it that simple and so that we do not get too involved with thinking we know what the MMs did or are doing..... and thereby possibly lead ourselves astray by seeing things differently due to the bias such thinking causes.
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  • #8,368
  • Dec 2, 2025 1:41am Dec 2, 2025 1:41am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GBPCAD Bullish MM behavior? This chart outlines the day of high volume and the inset rectangle shows the high volume separate from the volume for the rest of the day. As you can see, the high volume we are concerned with is a huge % of the total day volume..... maybe 85-90% of the total. Look closely and see that most of this volume is in the upper 30% of the total range of this day! This gets us back to the fundamental: Buy low, sell high! So, it looks like this is an indication of bearishness, not bullishness. Of course, we still do not...
GBPCAD Bullish MM behavior?

Thanks for the explanation, TAH. I get the point about most of that daily volume showing up in the upper part of the range. I might be completely wrong and have missed some piece of the puzzle.
The reason I shared the bullish read is because on H4 we had repeated increases in volume right at the lows, every time price dipped under the whole level. Each push down got hit with notable activity and price was pulled back up right after, which to me still looks like MMs using the drops to load orders.
So I fully understand the bearish interpretation, but Im also watching how the lower timeframes keep reacting around the WL with these spikes in volume at the lows. However, it's possible they reversed course when they reached 1.86000 area. It's within my risk management, so lets see how it plays out. Im always open to learning, so if there's anything else to consider, I'll gladly take it on board.

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  • #8,369
  • Dec 2, 2025 3:11am Dec 2, 2025 3:11am
Quoting rage22
{quote} GBPCAD Bullish MM behavior? Thanks for the explanation, TAH. I get the point about most of that daily volume showing up in the upper part of the range. I might be completely wrong and have missed some piece of the puzzle. The reason I shared the bullish read is because on H4 we had repeated increases in volume right at the lows, every time price dipped under the whole level. Each push down got hit with notable activity and price was pulled back up right after, which to me still looks like MMs using the drops to load orders. So I fully understand...
Let's assume for a moment that it is bearish. Okay, the MMs & big money outfits are driving the price down, but the lower it goes the better the "bulls" see their chance for profit. All they need is encouragement. So, the MMs & Big Money put on their bull act....enough orders to spoof the market price upwards..... and the bulls jump in believing it really is destined to be bullish.... at which time the flood of buys is readily met with agreeable counterparties. Guess who they are! Yep, the bears close their "instigating buys" for small profit and continue to counterparty the re-excited buyers by taking the sell side. And, soon enough, the buyers are totally absorbed, rising price stops rising and the end result is the bears have more positions than before and have made interim profits on their "upstart" buys at the bottom. This would account for episodes of high volume at the lows.
  • #8,370
  • Dec 2, 2025 12:00pm Dec 2, 2025 12:00pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Let's assume for a moment that it is bearish. Okay, the MMs & big money outfits are driving the price down, but the lower it goes the better the "bulls" see their chance for profit. All they need is encouragement. So, the MMs & Big Money put on their bull act....enough orders to spoof the market price upwards..... and the bulls jump in believing it really is destined to be bullish.... at which time the flood of buys is readily met with agreeable counterparties. Guess who they are! Yep, the bears close their "instigating buys" for small profit...
Thanks TAH, you saved me from a trade that wouldn't have been profitable. I realized that over time I had forgotten the simple PVSRA and missed some essential clues to this whole puzzle.
  • #8,371
  • Dec 3, 2025 7:30am Dec 3, 2025 7:30am
GBPCAD Long Trade

Hey folks, yesterday my analysis was completely wrong, but today I had a successful trade.

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  • #8,372
  • Dec 3, 2025 9:53am Dec 3, 2025 9:53am
GBPCAD
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  • #8,373
  • Dec 3, 2025 10:19am Dec 3, 2025 10:19am
EURGBP

The drop begins.....
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  • #8,374
  • Dec 3, 2025 12:58pm Dec 3, 2025 12:58pm
GBPJPY Long Trade

The price is now in the same high volume area (one of the highest of the year) and trading above the Whole Level (207.000), personally im not going to look for long positions for now. In H1 it becomes clearer how this looks like StopHunt, my idea...

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  • #8,375
  • Dec 4, 2025 4:45am Dec 4, 2025 4:45am
GBPCAD

Appears to be staging for a good dump. There are 2 High impact releases on Friday. Please do your own due diligence.
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  • #8,376
  • Dec 4, 2025 5:43am Dec 4, 2025 5:43am
GBPUSD

Friday releases might be the catalyst.
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  • #8,377
  • Dec 4, 2025 5:50am Dec 4, 2025 5:50am
Quoting traderathome
GBPUSD Friday releases might be the catalyst. {image}
Thats OANDA broker? My broker delivers different PVA
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  • #8,378
  • Dec 4, 2025 12:19pm Dec 4, 2025 12:19pm
EURGBP

Still time this week for another move lower....
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  • #8,379
  • Dec 5, 2025 9:47am Dec 5, 2025 9:47am
GBPCAD Short Trade

Hi, a FIFO after today's news following what TAH showed us.

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  • #8,380
  • Dec 5, 2025 10:56am Dec 5, 2025 10:56am
USDJPY

I've been short on UJ since wednesday and I'll hold on. That's my idea, I could be wrong and I've been before.

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