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  • #18,161
  • Nov 20, 2025 10:40pm Nov 20, 2025 10:40pm
Quoting fx6996
{quote} Don't forget that there is a G20 meeting this weekend. My "expectation" is that whatever happens to EU tomorrow will be done and dead after the London close. I am actually long with a minor position from the pullback today long 1.1525 with a stop at 1.1505 and limit up to 1.575 which was support on Tuesday & Wednesday.
I have to worry as its Friday!
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  • #18,162
  • Nov 20, 2025 11:33pm Nov 20, 2025 11:33pm
1.15490

In a bad short from before NFP...the green data/DXY fall threw me. Too many data releases for one Thursday I guess. This range is just dancing near my SL, just letting it ride. Having a win medium give it all back sort of week. It happens.

I hope everyone has a great Friday!
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Easy Does it.
  • #18,163
  • Nov 21, 2025 1:28am Nov 21, 2025 1:28am
Quoting stealyerface
1.15490 In a bad short from before NFP...the green data/DXY fall threw me. Too many data releases for one Thursday I guess. This range is just dancing near my SL, just letting it ride. Having a win medium give it all back sort of week. It happens. I hope everyone has a great Friday! {image}
From a risk money management view, it is prudent to close all short-term orders just before the release and then reassess the conditions. Then, if the news is bearish, sell, if the news is bullish, buy with caution on a bearish trend (as the EU is bearish) and if the news is mixed, stay out until a strong break happens.

Js3mwtRc's Rule: Never expose capital to a volatility event unless the trade is structurally well-padded and the risk is minor relative to the expected reward.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #18,164
  • Nov 21, 2025 7:10am Nov 21, 2025 7:10am
Quoting josip
{quote} update1 EURUSD H1 trendlines and patterns rising and falling wedge+diamond At the moment, we have two opposite patterns waiting for a breakout: above 1.1565 → bullish below 1.1510 → bearish What this means for our patterns (diamond + rising wedge) The rising wedge is now the stronger argument Because the pivot confirmed rejection at the top of the wedge. The diamond needs to break through the pivot, otherwise it’s invalid And that’s exactly why the diamond has a problem right now. R (new H4 pivot): 1.1542 – 1.1545 → This...
update2
EURUSD H1
trendlines and patterns

Everything is going according to plan, we are back in the diamond pattern, and the rising wedge worked nicely.
waiting for news at 15.45...

The positions for R and S remain unchanged.
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,165
  • Nov 21, 2025 9:11am Nov 21, 2025 9:11am
Quoting josip
{quote} update2 EURUSD H1 trendlines and patterns Everything is going according to plan, we are back in the diamond pattern, and the rising wedge worked nicely. waiting for news at 15.45... The positions for R and S remain unchanged. {image}
1.1500 zone is too strong, will need strong fundamentals and a daily/weekly close to break for good.
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  • #18,166
  • Edited 11:06am Nov 21, 2025 10:55am | Edited 11:06am
DXY H1

Let’s take a look at what the DXY is doing and how the patterns look.
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,167
  • Nov 21, 2025 11:10am Nov 21, 2025 11:10am
The time to close for the week has come! EU should stay below resistance at 1.1552 and above 1.1491 weekly support level. More support below is at 1.1468 low. The trend is bearish but its not good time to take positions as the close is near and its dangerous to keep open positions in the weekend.

From me...
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  • #18,168
  • Nov 22, 2025 1:31am Nov 22, 2025 1:31am
The EUR/USD closed lower this week after the 1.1600–1.1579 support zone was broken and flipped into resistance. The pair reached the 1.1500–1.1491 support zone, closing just a few pips above it as the week ended with a strong dollar following the September NFP report, which came in stronger than expected.

Currently, buyers are testing the lower support zone. If they push hard, they could drive the pair toward the 1.1552 resistance level at or before the news to determine the next move. Further resistance sits above at 1.1592–1.1608.

Sellers must break the 1.1491 support low to trigger the next leg down. If downside momentum is strong, this could target the 1.1468 low, 1.1446 monthly support, and the 1.1400–1.1391 lower support zone.


Weekly volatility (range) 81 pips

Significant news - US PPI, US Retail Sales & US Unemployment Claims.


Have a great weekend!

4H
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  • #18,169
  • Nov 23, 2025 3:04am Nov 23, 2025 3:04am
EURUSD H4, H1
trendlines and patterns

we are in a descending channel (red, the main structure)
the trend is still BEARISH.
1.1500 → 1.1490 → 1.1480

Key Resistances (R)

R: 1.15239 – 1.15300
Expect a reaction before retesting the higher levels (1.1545 / 1.1555)

R (pivot): 1.1545
= price dropped there sharply and repeatedly

R (main): 1.1555
= this level is extremely important
= only its breakout would reverse the short-term trend

Key Supports (S)

S: 1.1510
= the first weak support

S: 1.1500 – 1.1497 (Main S)
→ multiple bounces
→ pivot low
→ liquidity zone
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,170
  • Edited 3:44am Nov 23, 2025 3:23am | Edited 3:44am
EURUSD

On Friday we witnessed liquidity sweeps.
Liquidity sweep = ‘clearing out stop-losses’ above or below a key level.

The market makes a quick move (wick / spike) with the purpose of:
-collecting liquidity
-triggering stop-losses
-taking pending orders (buy stops / sell stops)
-gathering energy for the opposite move

Why does the market do this?
Market makers, large institutions, or algorithms:
-need to take retail orders
-so they can fill their large positions.

For that, they need liquidity, which is located exactly:
ABOVE the swing high (buy stops)
BELOW the swing low (sell stops)
The market “sweeps” them and then continues in the opposite direction.

Sweeps often mark the end of a move.
A reversal often follows after a sweep.
They are professional entry zones.

Above the 1.1555 level there was a clear liquidity sweep.
-the price hit 1.1555,
-moved just a few pips above,
-immediately pulled back below the level,
-a sharp sell-off followed.

This is a textbook:
-bearish liquidity sweep above 1.1555.

Below the 1.1500 / 1.1497 level there was also a beautiful sweep.
-the price dropped sharply below 1.1500,
-reached around 1.1497,
-immediately returned back above 1.1500,
-and bounced ~20+ pips.
This is a bullish liquidity sweep below 1.1500.

And what does this imply for the next move?
This is critical:
-As long as we are between 1.1555 (top sweep) and 1.1500 (bottom sweep), the market is in a “liquidity box.”
-The market will try to retest ONE of these boundaries again.

When one side breaks → a big move will follow.

Most accurate S/R map based on sweeps
Resistance (R)
1.1523 – micro R (weak)
1.1545 – R pivot
1.1555 – STRONG R (bearish sweep zone)
1.1560–1.1565 – upper boundary of the channel + SMC supply
Support (S)
1.1510 – weak S
1.1500 – Main S
1.1497 – STRONG bullish sweep
(main defensive level)

EURUSD outlook for the new week
➤ The market is more likely to return to 1.1545–1.1555.
(this is the retest of the bearish sweep)
➤ The lower liquidity at 1.1500–1.1497 is currently cleaned out and strong.
(the market won’t break it without a fight)
➤ 1.1497 was too strong of a sweep for the market to ignore immediately.
(a typical sign of a temporary bottom in a downtrend)
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #18,171
  • Nov 23, 2025 10:30pm Nov 23, 2025 10:30pm
EUR/USD is trading near the top of the Asian range, capping gains below 1.1552 resistance while holding above the 1.1491 low in bearish consolidation. If momentum builds, 1.1445–1.1460 could be the next target. However, should ranging conditions persist, the pair may retest 1.1552, while a move toward 1.1592 remains unlikely for now.


Daily volatility (range) 38 pips


Have a great week!

1H
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  • #18,172
  • Nov 24, 2025 1:27am Nov 24, 2025 1:27am
Quoting Luxyus
my gut says the king will up his head this quarter {image}
week after week the path is getting confirmations.. actually in critical historical range 99.70<>100.46.
Impressive tool fib speed fan to trade the future
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonaccifan.asp
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chaos is just unknown order
  • #18,173
  • Nov 24, 2025 10:00am Nov 24, 2025 10:00am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
EUR/USD is trading near the top of the Asian range, capping gains below 1.1552 resistance while holding above the 1.1491 low in bearish consolidation. If momentum builds, 1.1445–1.1460 could be the next target. However, should ranging conditions persist, the pair may retest 1.1552, while a move toward 1.1592 remains unlikely for now. Daily volatility (range) 38 pips Have a great week! 1H {image}
EU was stronger this morning but stumbled near resistance and found support at around 1.1520. Now 1.1504 and 1.1491 should hold in case 1.1520 can't lead the price above towards higher levels as 1.1552.
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  • #18,174
  • Nov 24, 2025 1:52pm Nov 24, 2025 1:52pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} EU was stronger this morning but stumbled near resistance and found support at around 1.1520. Now 1.1504 and 1.1491 should hold in case 1.1520 can't lead the price above towards higher levels as 1.1552.
not sure if 1500 will hold to trigger another bounce
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,175
  • Nov 24, 2025 8:44pm Nov 24, 2025 8:44pm
Sessions have been making higher lows all day but 1.15490 is bull kryptonite! I think we will retrace a bit higher (1.15360 ish) before hopefully taking out some of these session lows! I am bearish under 15490.
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Easy Does it.
  • #18,176
  • Nov 24, 2025 10:27pm Nov 24, 2025 10:27pm
EUR/USD consolidated between 1.1552 and 1.1491, waiting for news that could break the pair out to test lower or higher levels.

Downside targets for sellers are the support levels at 1.1468/60 and 1.1445.

Upside targets are resistance levels at 1.1592 and 1.1600/08.

Daily volatility (range) 38 pips


Have a great day!

1H
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  • #18,177
  • Nov 24, 2025 10:29pm Nov 24, 2025 10:29pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} not sure if 1500 will hold to trigger another bounce
In that case 1.1450 is next and might hold!
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  • #18,178
  • Nov 25, 2025 1:41am Nov 25, 2025 1:41am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} In that case 1.1450 is next and might hold!
nothing much i can do for now.

i m thinking of buying as long as 1500 1470 holds. I still want another bounce to take out 1666 1680 before maybe some further drop.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #18,179
  • Nov 25, 2025 2:58am Nov 25, 2025 2:58am
Quoting johncen
{quote} nothing much i can do for now. i m thinking of buying as long as 1500 1470 holds. I still want another bounce to take out 1666 1680 before maybe some further drop.
A break higher has not confirmed yet so only fishing at lows works now which is more riskful.
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  • #18,180
  • Edited 4:11am Nov 25, 2025 4:00am | Edited 4:11am
price is still in a 4h consolidation range since yesterday. Letīs see in which direction price shows its hand first

judging by the emerging news, Dollar might gain strength, therefore Euro devaluation.

There are two PD arrays in close proximity to the actual price. The strongest one is previous week's low. Might see a bullish smart money reversal after purging PWL at the news event. The second one is the daily SIBI, not that strong. But as it is daily might give a reload to the downside.

Wait and see
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