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The Swamp

  • #125,781
  • Nov 19, 2025 9:57am Nov 19, 2025 9:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Sadly I didn't short 1588
yea was not at my desk at that time but pa to me remain choppy. I am not sure if bull is done here still
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,782
  • Nov 19, 2025 11:27am Nov 19, 2025 11:27am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea was not at my desk at that time but pa to me remain choppy. I am not sure if bull is done here still
I don't know how the unemployment numbers can be good, more so during the shutdown. This being the first news could be a large move
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  • #125,783
  • Nov 19, 2025 11:46am Nov 19, 2025 11:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I don't know how the unemployment numbers can be good, more so during the shutdown. This being the first news could be a large move {image}
Amazon laying off workers before the time they normally higher workers. That to me don't look good. If they are not expecting good sales. Laying off makes sense. If they are not expecting deliveries from purchases. It means some manufactures are filling less orders. Plus AI is taking some jobs. Less government workers etc. That to me, don't seem to provide a good outlook. But its all comparable to what the EU is doing. They have a war on their continent. Plus winter helps the usd through energy sales.
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  • #125,784
  • Nov 20, 2025 4:49am Nov 20, 2025 4:49am
It may have some attraction to 1546. Some possible R in that area 1546/54.. I think 1672 area is a better R area if it makes it that far. The 1470 area may support..
Ahead of the jobs report. I don't want to chance a bad one causing a big rise.
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  • #125,785
  • Nov 20, 2025 7:16am Nov 20, 2025 7:16am
news in 14
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  • #125,786
  • Nov 20, 2025 11:49am Nov 20, 2025 11:49am
Atm the 1526 area is a st crossroads. 1572 may have a role next week. If bearish, pa may be unable to make it much past 1572. Maybe less than 20 pips above, with a wicked candle closing below 72. pa would need to take 72 to be bullish or likely a slapped down if unable to hold above. Monday may give a better reading
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  • #125,787
  • Nov 20, 2025 12:02pm Nov 20, 2025 12:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
Atm the 1526 area is a st crossroads. 1572 may have a role next week. If bearish, pa may be unable to make it much past 1572. Maybe less than 20 pips above, with a wicked candle closing below 72. pa would need to take 72 to be bullish or likely a slapped down if unable to hold above. Monday may give a better reading {image}
i m thinking something similiar here
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,788
  • Nov 20, 2025 7:38pm Nov 20, 2025 7:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
Will Putin see 2026?
Will he?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,789
  • Nov 20, 2025 9:49pm Nov 20, 2025 9:49pm
Sustained above 1539 may be a bull b/o. It may be a R now. But even so it may have a wick above some, even if it falls after. If its to be bearish, it may be rejected somewhere above 1539.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,790
  • Nov 20, 2025 10:09pm Nov 20, 2025 10:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
Atm the 1526 area is a st crossroads. 1572 may have a role next week. If bearish, pa may be unable to make it much past 1572. Maybe less than 20 pips above, with a wicked candle closing below 72. pa would need to take 72 to be bullish or likely a slapped down if unable to hold above. Monday may give a better reading {image}
Th 6h closed above 1527. There will be pressure to break 1538..It may be worth a slap down to 1526
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  • #125,791
  • Edited Nov 21, 2025 4:32am Nov 20, 2025 11:27pm | Edited Nov 21, 2025 4:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Th 6h closed above 1527. There will be pressure to break 1538..It may be worth a slap down to 1526 {image}
It missed that last h close to break the magenta. Usually when the 6h closes like it did, the 12h later will do the same. That usually mean a up day. It may break North, it 1526 before..
The 12h did not follow the 6h this time. It may make 1526 or the stall point a sell instead. 1538 rejected b/o was also rejected. 1511 is a b/o point for South. It can support. Sustained below is a b/o, not just a wick. The 12h had indicated a down move today. A possible short on 1511 hold a little while it may get back to 1526/4x.
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  • #125,792
  • Nov 21, 2025 4:34am Nov 21, 2025 4:34am
It still would need to b/o 1511.. The 12h close favors that.
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  • #125,793
  • Nov 21, 2025 4:42am Nov 21, 2025 4:42am
at todays high a drop using adr is 53 pips.
The high to the right is higher. It may be best to watch, and see if it looks toppy.. in the 1526+ area. Even 1522 is better. It would still need to break 1511, and sustain below. That don't leave much meat for a tp, Unless it was sold higher. Its not worth a trade to me even after a sustained move under 1511. Because the adr is gone by then. Waiting for 1526 is better, and higher better.
I don't see a decent reason for the risk
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  • #125,794
  • Nov 21, 2025 4:58am Nov 21, 2025 4:58am
Quoting gatorinla
at todays high a drop using adr is 53 pips. The high to the right is higher. It may be best to watch, and see if it looks toppy.. in the 1526+ area. Even 1522 is better. It would still need to break 1511, and sustain below. That don't leave much meat for a tp, Unless it was sold higher. Its not worth a trade to me even after a sustained move under 1511. Because the adr is gone by then. Waiting for 1526 is better, and higher better. I don't see a decent reason for the risk {image}
the week average move is 170. at the current level it could be 1454.. But that means 1470 is letting it. I'm on the sideline. I could of longed 1411 bears failing, but the 12h close don't agree,
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  • #125,795
  • Nov 21, 2025 5:01am Nov 21, 2025 5:01am
Currently I think 1572 can play a role next week.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,796
  • Nov 21, 2025 5:10am Nov 21, 2025 5:10am
this is a tick bad number. Laying off before Christmas is not the best sign for the usd. Its all comparable. Some of Europe are preparing for war. That's not the best sign for the euro.
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  • #125,797
  • Nov 21, 2025 8:13am Nov 21, 2025 8:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It missed that last h close to break the magenta. Usually when the 6h closes like it did, the 12h later will do the same. That usually mean a up day. It may break North, it 1526 before.. The 12h did not follow the 6h this time. It may make 1526 or the stall point a sell instead. 1538 rejected b/o was also rejected. 1511 is a b/o point for South. It can support. Sustained below is a b/o, not just a wick. The 12h had indicated a down move today. A possible short on 1511 hold a little while it may get back to 1526/4x. {image} {image}
I bought adr, thinking it still needed to be able to close below 1511. I probably should had tp when it hit 1526 but missed it. But I missed shorting it. Its Friday I will just hold to hit b.e. or see if it breaks 1538 toward 1572. Earlier the 6h and 12h didn't agree. According to the 12h I should of closed this trade and shorted.
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  • #125,798
  • Nov 21, 2025 8:16am Nov 21, 2025 8:16am
Waiting now to see if 1511 holds support. It did reject earlier with no sustain
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  • #125,799
  • Nov 21, 2025 8:20am Nov 21, 2025 8:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I bought adr, thinking it still needed to be able to close below 1511. I probably should had tp when it hit 1526 but missed it. But I missed shorting it. Its Friday I will just hold to hit b.e. or see if it breaks 1538 toward 1572. Earlier the 6h and 12h didn't agree. According to the 12h I should of closed this trade and shorted. {image}
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  • #125,800
  • Nov 21, 2025 8:27am Nov 21, 2025 8:27am
those 4h candles didn't like crossing magenta. Like touching a hot stove.
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