Generating Alpha α

This Thread was created as a journal of my trades. It will include a screenshot of the trade.

This thread will serve as nothing more than a public journal of my trades. The purpose isn't meant to track account growth, but personal growth. I will be 100% Transparent and post my Wins and Losses, no matter the size.
Note that I do not have a strategy at all, I am completely discretionary and I trade based on conviction, which is justified through simple macro-economics, which includes but isn't limited to: Volatility Index, International Oil, S&P500, US Dollar Currency Index and US 10 Year Yields. I do not specialise in any specific trading method. I am a scalper, swing trader and position trader.

Note that the journal isn't intended to track account growth, meaning that I will be adding money as a way to compound, so my profits from my trades are not the sole reason of account growth, I do manage short term investment portfolio's for people as more of a hobby, rather than a source of income, so this journal will include both trades from my account and clients.

Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.

Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.

Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account

Scalp Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account
Manual Close, bad trade on my part, but earned some tidy profit today for a client with such a small account.

(Trade won't show up on broker statement)

Scalp Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.
(Manual Close)

Most of my trades are scalps as I do not have a lot of time to trade.

Scalp Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.
(Manual Close)

Bad trade on my part unfortunately.

Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.
(Manual Close)

Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.
(Stopped Out)

Stupid trade from me.
(Rule Broken 1) I took another trade despite two losses for the day; I also have another open position. In my defence, this is a new rule that I am implementing, and I have just forgotten it.

Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.
(Stopped Out)

Rule Broken, will be stepping away from the charts. It is clear that I am still not in touch with the mental game of trading, as such I will be concluding the trading session there.

Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.

3 Trades Today. 2 small losses, 1 big win for a client with a $1,200 account.
(Note, for some reason, the trades that hit my trailing SL don't show up as a statement)

(Will post the big win next message showing my analysis)

15 Min Candle displacement indicating passive order absorption, confirming with structure, long wicks at key resistance. Price then moves down with huge displacement, but then wicks upwards above most wicks and then closing all the way back downwards, indicating that banks and institutions have found the best area to enter there order in the market where these is a large number of volume where contracts can be swapped with minimal slippage.

And then there's the volatility index, big moves on XAU upwards, yet the volatility index crashes downward. Gauging market fear. Large market fear yet XAU extreme bullishness, you have to ask yourself whether XAU is going to be a continuation of a bullish sentiment or if it's preparing for something, in this case, an extreme sell-off.

On the 1m where all the large wicks on the 15M occur, pure consolidation, giving us an idea that XAU is preparing for a sell off (auction market theory) because even though US10Y and DXY are still in a downwards momentum (Resulting in Bullish XAU), VIX is crashing, confirming the location of smart money

VIX Downwards Momentum:
Combining this with the S&P500 (Inverse to Gold):

Result:

Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.


Ended up doubling my client's $1000 account to $2,200 in 5 days. Pretty chill week. Here are the statistics for his account

(A lot of the realized PnL Don't show up whenever my trades hit trailing SL, no clue why)

Trade on the Client's Account will not reveal statistics and will only show pre-trade analysis on my account.

Weekly Outlook for this Client:

Personal Account, trail hit.

Personal Account, Trail Hit. Predictable day on XAU.

Hypothesis; XAUUSD will fall in the next 15min candle on 6:55pm AEST Sydney Time.

Fundamentally, it’s supposed to go down. Last week alone, DXY and US10Y were never in favour of gold going up. This leads us to the question of whether or not gold is being artificially built up? And obviously, with the push being artificial, it can only last so long. Most of the traders understand that gold is supposed to be going down, yet it isn’t. In essence, macro misalignment but in the severe scale, and if u are aware, macro misalignment must ALWAYS align at the very end, I was wrong about the last message, But I should be right about the sell off, at the moment there is a large CVD divergence poised towards a sell off aswell as a CVD uptrend exhaustion, the sell off's on Gold are always extremely large yet it always recovers with little buy candle displacement to the very top. Just my analogy.

I have shorted at 4249 with pure discretion, flow shift, candle personality, forced behaviour and absorption on footprint bar statistics, I was wrong about the last call but I only have to be right once.

And yes, I am overleveraging 95% of 5 accounts on this short position in a Gold market that has been fucking awful. No, I do not give 2 fucks, and if I am wrong on this trade, I still believe I am right about the artificial buildup and I will continue to short because its such a clusterfuck to where Gold is literally just being propped up by news events related to rate cuts.

4237 Hit on Gold, expecting a solid drop off, ticks all boxes but if it doesn't drop I wouldnt be surprised