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Why Smart Traders Watch the First Hour (Initial Balance Guide)

  • #41
  • Nov 17, 2025 5:15pm Nov 17, 2025 5:15pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} So lemme ask you, if you're trading the ES open using Globex VP levels, what's more relevant for you: previous U.S. session or overnight (London and Asia) session?
They both are it just depends where there value is situated...meaning is Globex Value overlapping NY ?
Today was a good example of this. And when the value overlaps I draw a FRVP and VWAP for both the sessions.

Chart from this morning.
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I dont want to derail your thread with Volume Profile and VWAP etc
I am happy to talk IB its just my IB trading has morphed into using some other tools is all
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #42
  • Nov 17, 2025 5:41pm Nov 17, 2025 5:41pm
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Nice! I don't really subscribe to the idea of extensions (at least for indices) because the majority of times the moves in the IB are so big that it's not realistic for price to move 1x or 2x of the IB. That's also why I use such small targets. But I am trying to add to my indicator a small text somewhere on the chart that will indicate the average of an X number of IBs. Kinda like the ones in that indicator you shared.
To be honest as for just a standard multiple of the IB...Half the range is the sweet spot IMO and experience

Reason being is this.. I've spent years trading it and have backtested, very thoroughly, by hand years of data.
What I found is this... and I preface it with im not a big FIB mmm user? But they are a great tool for designing
rules around etc,,,

So what I found was a simple 127 and 161 extension of the IB range are key...in fact once a "bias" is set for the IB
and I will tell you how I set a "Bias" and I dont like that word...or prediction for that matter.
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OK so thats how I set my Bias for the IB now for Extension levels.
What my research found was once this "Bias" is set the 127% fib Extension will be hit 90% of the time.
and the 161.8 will be hit 70%....So thats why I say the half range extension falls somewhere between the two,,thus the sweetspot

This I have only tested on the ES SPX etc. NQ YM etc may be different..
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #43
  • Nov 17, 2025 6:34pm Nov 17, 2025 6:34pm
Quoting mrBaller
In stock futures, the volatility doubles/triples or more just after open, and the market makes higher ADX moves.{quote}
Really? I think that's been common knowledge since dinosaurs traded ticker tape.
Sorry, I don't see how your comment is related to my post you quoted.

Quote
Chasing a move just after open results in much more potential bang for the buck.
After open or not, I just showed it doesn't matter what hour you set as IB.
How else could it be - magic edge hour?
Air force
  • #44
  • Nov 18, 2025 3:49am Nov 18, 2025 3:49am
If the slippage+spread on the /ES for your order is say... One 2.0 points at 9AM, and fifteen minutes after open it is 0.25 points...

Say your targeting a 30 handle move. At 9AM your cost of execution will be 6.6%, vs after open... Your cost will be 0.83%. This is why the big boys shift at the start and end of the day. Big handicap difference.

Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Really? I think that's been common knowledge since dinosaurs traded ticker tape. Sorry, I don't see how your comment is related to my post you quoted. {quote} After open or not, I just showed it doesn't matter what hour you set as IB. How else could it be - magic edge hour?
Structure and time.
  • #45
  • Nov 18, 2025 4:10am Nov 18, 2025 4:10am
The specific "opening value" you use does not matter... It's just a point of reference. The actual opening price... Prior close, 30 second opening balance, 15 minute opening balance, 30 minute, etc...

It's all the same really. Does not matter what you use. All the different opening balance systems are kind of silly in my opinion. Just use the opening price. Simpler.
Structure and time.
  • #46
  • Nov 18, 2025 6:50am Nov 18, 2025 6:50am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} To be honest as for just a standard multiple of the IB...Half the range is the sweet spot IMO and experience Reason being is this.. I've spent years trading it and have backtested, very thoroughly, by hand years of data. What I found is this... and I preface it with im not a big FIB mmm user? But they are a great tool for designing rules around etc,,, So what I found was a simple 127 and 161 extension of the IB range are key...in fact once a "bias" is set for the IB and I will tell you how I set a "Bias" and I dont like that word...or...

Oh I like this! The waiting a few candles after the break out, the fib extension and the half ranges. Also, thanks for the information on the volume profiles. Not taking away any attention from this thread. Anyone who comes to this thread and reads the first post will know that IB is taken from auction market theory. I like VP but I havent figured out a way to automate a strategy around it or automate a strategy using VP and IB.
  • #47
  • Nov 20, 2025 7:45am Nov 20, 2025 7:45am
Hi everyone! Been silent since Tuesday after some market choppyness. Tuesday's U.S. sessions were mixed, had some false break outs, took some losses but hedged them and finally was able to make a small profit after yesterday's Nvidia earnings report which apparently are the only thing holding up the U.S. markets. Still in a Dow Jones long position that is doing well as of 8:44am EST because of the NFP report. Hopefully this volatility will slow down and I can get back to regular trading with the EA.
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  • #48
  • Nov 20, 2025 8:43am Nov 20, 2025 8:43am
Dow Jones positions closed at the open 7 minutes ago. Back to a profitable week.
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  • #49
  • Nov 20, 2025 9:27am Nov 20, 2025 9:27am
Quoting eadweardcap
Dow Jones positions closed at the open 7 minutes ago. Back to a profitable week. {image}
Congrats...however this is quiet a DD, it will be very hard to stick with the trade when trading live.
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  • #50
  • Nov 20, 2025 9:47am Nov 20, 2025 9:47am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Congrats...however this is quiet a DD, it will be very hard to stick with the trade when trading live. {image}
Well it depends on the size of the trades. But yeah the DD was somewhat relatively deep into profits but not into the principal. It's kinda like dollar cost averaging a bit.
  • #51
  • Nov 21, 2025 10:21am Nov 21, 2025 10:21am
All done for today, don't have much conviction on strong moves on the Dow Jones. This week's report.
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  • #52
  • Nov 21, 2025 11:00am Nov 21, 2025 11:00am
aaaaaaaand I was wrong.
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  • #53
  • Nov 24, 2025 10:07am Nov 24, 2025 10:07am
Happy Monday everyone! Today's trades came in early, all done for the day.
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  • #54
  • Nov 25, 2025 12:01am Nov 25, 2025 12:01am
Quoting eadweardcap
Happy Monday everyone! Today's trades came in early, all done for the day. {image}
So nice trade !! It works
  • #55
  • Nov 25, 2025 11:09am Nov 25, 2025 11:09am
Hi everyone! A bit of volatility today with some Ukraine news, PPI and apparently some Fed chair chatter. Still managed to take trades from the U.S. indexes.
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  • #56
  • Edited 1:44pm Nov 25, 2025 11:56am | Edited 1:44pm
Quoting eadweardcap
Hi everyone! A bit of volatility today with some Ukraine news, PPI and apparently some Fed chair chatter. Still managed to take trades from the U.S. indexes. {image}
Congrats, great couple days. I trade similar way, breakout of the fluent fixed bar. Here is today action on US 30 futures 5 Min TF.

I have 2 questions: What is your TP target? and what is your SL?(if it is bottom/top of opposite side of the range, what are your thoughts that it is a really high risk with your small TP target)
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  • #57
  • Nov 26, 2025 9:05am Nov 26, 2025 9:05am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Congrats, great couple days. I trade similar way, breakout of the fluent fixed bar. Here is today action on US 30 futures 5 Min TF. I have 2 questions: What is your TP target? and what is your SL?(if it is bottom/top of opposite side of the range, what are your thoughts that it is a really high risk with your small TP target) {image}
Hey man, thanks for the comment! So I have a few questions for you:

  1. What's the fluent fixed bar?
  2. Are those heikin ashi candles?

Now, to answer your questions my targets are fairly small: 10 pips on S&P 5000, 5 pips on Nasdaq and Dow Jones. Reason for this is because it's more probable for price to move that much after the IB break out, rather than price move 1x or 2x of the entire IB. So with that being said, I'd rather have a high probability of hitting those targets and getting the profit rather than have price move around all day waiting to hit a 1x IB or 2x IB and then hitting my SL because my target was too high. Does that make sense or did I do a horrible job explaining? haha

  • #58
  • Edited 9:40am Nov 26, 2025 9:29am | Edited 9:40am
Quoting eadweardcap
{quote} Hey man, thanks for the comment! So I have a few questions for you: What's the fluent fixed bar? Are those heikin ashi candles? Now, to answer your questions my targets are fairly small: 10 pips on S&P 5000, 5 pips on Nasdaq and Dow Jones. Reason for this is because it's more probable for price to move that much after the IB break out, rather than price move 1x or 2x of the entire IB. So with that being said, I'd rather have a high probability of hitting those targets and getting the profit rather than have price move around all day waiting...
No, you good...but you will get killed with taking SL at the opposite side of the range. I do not place 1X or 2X or 5X on the TP. Every price movement is random. Who is to say that that it will not move 20X? The most important part of trading is Money Management. I learned how to MM and stick and try to squeeze out of trade as much as possible. Why? See in bold font.

What's the fluent fixed bar? It is a bar that I deem important bar for the new session. Similar to ORB but could be another bar(5 Min - 1 Hour)
Are those heikin ashi candles? Yes.
  • #59
  • Nov 26, 2025 9:37am Nov 26, 2025 9:37am
Here we go for today...do I want to take a profit - Yes. Will I, not now but started on my MM.
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  • #60
  • Nov 26, 2025 10:34am Nov 26, 2025 10:34am
Quoting driven18
{quote} No, you good...but you will get killed with taking SL at the opposite side of the range. I do not place 1X or 2X or 5X on the TP. Every price movement is random. Who is to say that that it will not move 20X? The most important part of trading is Money Management. I learned how to MM and stick and try to squeeze out of trade as much as possible. Why? See in bold font. What's the fluent fixed bar? It is a bar that I deem important bar for the new session. Similar to ORB but could be another bar(5 Min - 1 Hour) Are those heikin ashi candles?...
Well here's where I like to play with Monte Carlo simulations and look at trade profitability percentage. You're absolutely right, money management is CRUCIAL in trading. Up to the point where I've seen traders that have like a 30% trade profitability but because they mange risk, they're insanely profitable.

Now, I'll share some statistics with you guys since I've been using this trading strategy around mid-October:
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So if we take some of those statistics and plug them into a Monte Carlo simulation calculator you get the following:
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So as you can see even in a really bad scenario there is still some upside.
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