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  • #21
  • Edited 4:38pm Aug 19, 2007 3:10pm | Edited 4:38pm
Quoting mobi
Most of the money arent speculative?
I cannot agree with you less.
90% of the money in forex are speculative ones.
Who certainly lost were big players who cannost putt all the money off the market.
But as mentioned above, it is part of the strategy.
I know about institutions who lost billions in speculation with currency (per trade) but overall they ends with 9 buck in profit.

Subprime mortgage is the black hole. Big players know it (part of the game). Everyone knows when it blows away it will smack down (tie up) U.S. economy. Yet, it didnt blow up.
We are digging pips upon bloated markets, yet risk is well known in advance.
Irony is when it blows up, the more rich you are, the less you lost (rich doesnt mean big)

Thanks
&
Nice day!
I concede sir, you are correct. I don't know if I was up too late last night and that caused me to misremember, or more likely of my own volition, but the majority of the trades for spot Forex are speculative.

After I got up today and started getting ready for the market to open, it was bugging me so I did some research and confirmed my error. Now what's bugging me is what was it that I was thinking of and why did I confuse it. Was it a different instrument or some specific pair or facet of Forex? I'm sure I remember reading something to that effect.

I am confident in the rest of statements however so my self esteem is not totally undone in this concession. You sure can't become a great trader without the ability to admit you were wrong.
  • #22
  • Aug 19, 2007 3:23pm Aug 19, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting Mr demark
You know, somehow i dont know if i should trust these charts from oanda. They almost always tell what the market is doing, Oppositely. (excuse my english)
I agree that the retail sentiment they show almost universally contrasts with the general direction of the market's trend. I'm not sure why that could be the case, unless the vast majority of traders are ignorant of basic T/A principles (which I don't think they are). I would be more skeptical of the data had it not been closely correlated with the same retail data provided by FXCM (reviewed weekly by dailyfx here).

The best real-world example of this in action is perhaps the USD/CAD trend reversal thread here at FF. The sentiment indicators were showing 80% net long USD/CAD throughout most of its 1500 pip downtrend, and all the while, traders here were calling bottoms and jumping in long. Now USD/CAD is starting to rebound and you have people posting short trades..
  • #23
  • Edited 4:48pm Aug 19, 2007 4:23pm | Edited 4:48pm
Quoting CateFul
In spot forex, most of the funds aren't speculative. Even in futures market this is the case. Take a look at the COT report.
COT isnt everything.
Try to observe the market rather then one parket!

Thanks
&
Nice day

Edit: COT is like one small corner of the market - CME (GLOBEX), is that represantive for the whole interbank sector? Worldwide? Dont mix futures & spot (in one parket) with whole market.
Motor of the forex are banks (who inveted it; you are mixing into it another part - a small part) connected worldwide via interbank sector (or - again - market).
You can read something about it here at FF also. So do your homework!
Thanks & Nice day!
  • #24
  • Edited 4:58pm Aug 19, 2007 4:34pm | Edited 4:58pm
Quoting mobi
COT isnt everything.
Try observe market rather then parket!

Thanks
&
Nice day
You're right, COT isn't everything but it's good at spoting market tops & bottoms. And it does show that commercials hold over 50% of all contracts in the futures market at any given time. They are the smart money here not some hedge fund companies. Commercials were net short on EUR for the last week while speculators were net long, talking about who's making money. But again the commercials don't
make money from speculative gains. Just my 2 pips.

Ah sorry my bad, if you are talking about volume, then yes, over 90% are speculative!

Have a good trading week.
Take a report.
  • #25
  • Aug 19, 2007 4:47pm Aug 19, 2007 4:47pm
hmmmmmmmmmmmm

well, i lost 80% of my deposit on Dow futures 2 weeks ago...but made up about 25% last week......

anyone else trade Dow futures? well you must be as crazy as me then....
  • #26
  • Aug 19, 2007 4:49pm Aug 19, 2007 4:49pm
Quoting Hagbard Celine
I concede sir, you are correct. I don't know if I was up too late last night and that caused me to misremember, or more likely of my own volition, but the majority of the trades for spot Forex are speculative.

After I got up today and started getting ready for the market to open, it was bugging me so I did some research and confirmed my error. Now what's bugging me is what was it that I was thinking of and why did I confuse it. Was it a different instrument or some specific pair or facet of Forex? I'm sure I remember reading something to that effect.

I am confident in the rest of statements however so my self esteem is not totally undone in this concession. You sure can't become a great trader without the ability to admit you were wrong.
I couldnt agree with you more!

Nice day, sir!
&
Thanks
Thanks & Nice day!
  • #27
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:07pm Aug 19, 2007 5:07pm
Quote
COT is like one small corner of the market - CME (GLOBEX), is that represantive for the whole interbank sector? Worldwide? Dont mix futures & spot (in one parket) with whole market.
Motor of the forex are banks (who inveted it; you are mixing into it another part - a small part) connected worldwide via interbank sector (or - again - market).
You can read something about it here at FF also. So do your homework!

You got me wrong. I wasn't saying COT represents spot forex. However we can use the futures market as a mirror, a proxy to the spot market. If the smart money is long AUD in the futures market what does that tell us? I trade both spot & futures, and commodites and I know exactly what you are talking about. Try read Larry Williams and compare the futures charts with the spot.

Have a nice trading week.
Take a report.
  • #28
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:13pm Aug 19, 2007 5:13pm
HC - it may be that you were thinking of the actual underlying flows that drive the speculative market; speculation is essentially like playing ping-pong on board a ship. Just hope this guy isn't the captain. Bears a striking resemblance to Ben Bernanke though.....

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...0/EJ_Smith.jpg

PS - that's Edward Smith, captain of the Titanic.
  • #29
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:14pm Aug 19, 2007 5:14pm
Quoting CateFul
You're right, COT isn't everything but it's good at spoting market tops & bottoms. And it does show that commercials hold over 50% of all contracts in the futures market at any given time. They are the smart money here not some hedge fund companies. Commercials were net short on EUR for the last week while speculators were net long, talking about who's making money. But again the commercials don't
make money from speculative gains. Just my 2 pips.

Ah sorry my bad, if you are talking about volume every day, then yes, over 90% are speculative!

Have a good trading week.
For sure, COT should be a good leading indicator! Smart money are everywhere!

When you are big fund, you use so called "money-machines." When you start it, you engage big, really big, whirl of events (money).
You cant stop it unless this machine do its round.
So you use many of that machines, so that one machine covers weakneses of the other machine.
But when "General event" become to live, theese units are acting as black holes in the market. This starts spiral of events.

So when it becomes to live, we only can look back and see if that "general event" was really a true "General event."

So look back and realize that past week was only a fart!

But as I said, smart money are everywhere!
Thanks & Nice day!
  • #30
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:18pm Aug 19, 2007 5:18pm
Quoting CateFul
You got me wrong. I wasn't saying COT represents spot forex. However we can use the futures market as a mirror, a proxy to the spot market. If the smart money is long AUD in the futures market what does that tell us? I trade both spot & futures, and commodites and I know exactly what you are talking about. Try read Larry Williams and compare the futures charts with the spot.

Have a nice trading week.
You got me wrong then!
I meant you have to read Williams' book!

Thanks
&
Nice day!
Thanks & Nice day!
  • #31
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:20pm Aug 19, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
HC - it may be that you were thinking of the actual underlying flows that drive the speculative market; speculation is essentially like playing ping-pong on board a ship. Just hope this guy isn't the captain. Bears a striking resemblance to Ben Bernanke though.....

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...0/EJ_Smith.jpg

PS - that's Edward Smith, captain of the Titanic.
That was a great laugh to start the week....!!!!! Most comedy is actually truth based.
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #32
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:21pm Aug 19, 2007 5:21pm
ok, i give up.:
Take a report.
  • #33
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:29pm Aug 19, 2007 5:29pm
Quoting mobi
COT isnt everything.
Try to observe the market rather then one parket!

Thanks
&
Nice day

Edit: COT is like one small corner of the market - CME (GLOBEX), is that represantive for the whole interbank sector? Worldwide? Dont mix futures & spot (in one parket) with whole market.
Motor of the forex are banks (who inveted it; you are mixing into it another part - a small part) connected worldwide via interbank sector (or - again - market).
You can read something about it here at FF also. So do your homework!

Mobi.....Just adding my small 2 cents worth, If Spot traders do not keep an eye on the COT, they are doing themselves a big dis-service. And I can assure you that I have done my Homework. If you are trading with anything less than a Bank or a true spot broker.....than you are most likely just trading with the "house".
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #34
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:32pm Aug 19, 2007 5:32pm
Quoting FxJarhead
Mobi.....Just adding my small 2 cents worth, If Spot traders do not keep an eye on the COT, they are doing themselves a big dis-service. And I can assure you that I have done my Homework. If you are trading with anything less than a Bank or a true spot broker.....than you are most likely just trading with the "house".
wow thanks for backing me up buddy^_^
Take a report.
  • #35
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:51pm Aug 19, 2007 5:51pm
Great inputs..thanks...hope this week is as rocking as last week...Just be on the right side guys...Good Luck.

Thank you for your inputs....It will help to get us to the core of things.
  • #36
  • Aug 19, 2007 6:00pm Aug 19, 2007 6:00pm
Quoting FxJarhead
Mobi.....Just adding my small 2 cents worth, If Spot traders do not keep an eye on the COT, they are doing themselves a big dis-service. And I can assure you that I have done my Homework. If you are trading with anything less than a Bank or a true spot broker.....than you are most likely just trading with the "house".
SPOT COT? FOREX?
---
You can look COT or you neednt.
I wasnt talking about that.
If you are talking about "all" spot brokers at COT report, this is yo' hmwrk?
My 2 cents are then awaiting some facts from yo' research!

Thanks
&
Nice day
Thanks & Nice day!
  • #37
  • Aug 19, 2007 6:05pm Aug 19, 2007 6:05pm
Quoting mobi
SPOT COT? FOREX?
---
You can look COT or you neednt.
I wasnt talking about that.
If you are talking about "all" spot brokers at COT report, this is yo' hmwrk?
My 2 cents are then awaiting some facts from yo' research!

Thanks
&
Nice day
Jeez, calm down. And what is spot COT??
Take a report.
  • #38
  • Aug 19, 2007 7:05pm Aug 19, 2007 7:05pm
Quoting CateFul
And what is spot COT??
An inteligent question imply 50% of the answer.
The more inteligent you are, the more than 50% of the answer it contains.
You are more inteligent, arent you?
So tray to answer less than half of this task.
I think, you should be able to do it!

Thanks
&
Have a great day!
Thanks & Nice day!
  • #39
  • Aug 19, 2007 7:23pm Aug 19, 2007 7:23pm
Quoting mobi
An inteligent question imply 50% of the answer.
The more inteligent you are, the more than 50% of the answer it contains.
You are more inteligent, arent you?
So tray to answer less than half of this task.
I think, you should be able to do it!

Thanks
&
Have a great day!
ok ok i'll back off.
Take a report.
  • #40
  • Aug 20, 2007 2:27am Aug 20, 2007 2:27am
Zero sum game? yes

But one must know who the players are in the game of forex!
If one does not know who the players are and how this whole thing works, you will be out of the market very quick, count on it!

To think retail traders traders are making a dent in this market, you have to be kidding!!!

I know some will disagree with me thats fine, but experience is something many and I mean many lack in forex.

Tip: Find out how the banks, companies and governments use the forex markets?

These are just some of the players.
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