What happen in the market today?

USDCAD falls ahead of BoC interest rate decision

The USDCAD pair trended downward during the week's trading. Although price volatility was very high in the short term, downward pressure was dominant. The USDCAD charted a bearish candle on October 28th with a fairly long candle body. The price formed a high of 1.40056, a low of 1.39333, and a close of 1.39433. This indicates the Canadian dollar is strengthening against the US dollar ahead of today's BoC interest rate decision. The BoC is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, before 2.50%. Theoretically, an interest rate cut tends to weaken the CAD because the return is relatively less attractive compared to the USD. On the other hand, the USD is expected to see an interest rate cut or easing by the Federal Reserve. Interest rate cuts tend to weaken currencies, but the USD still receives support from safe-haven flows and uncertain global conditions.

The CAD's strengthening on Tuesday appears to have been driven more by the report on US Consumer Confidence, which fell in October. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.6 from a revised 95.6 in September, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the USD, has weakened slightly over the past five days, trending towards a doji with a lower low. The DXY is currently down at 98.717 from a high of 98.565.

Today's focus will shift to the risk of interest rate decisions from the Bank of China (BoC) and the Federal Reserve, which are preparing to announce their decisions. The market currently expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates due to a sharp slowdown in the Canadian economy, which shrank by 1.6% in the second quarter due to US steel/aluminum tariffs and high unemployment.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is also almost certain to cut interest rates after weaker-than-expected US inflation data last week, reinforcing expectations of a dovish Fed stance. The Fedwatch tool indicates a 99.9% probability of a 25 bps interest rate cut.

Canada relies heavily on oil exports, and oil prices are currently falling after ending a session of gains during last week's trading. Weakening oil prices could put pressure on the CAD against the USD. Analysts report that pension fund hedges against the CAD are declining, reducing the automatic support for the CAD.

Combining Canadian and US fundamentals, USDCAD has the potential to rise due to the BoC interest rate cut. Although the Fed is also expected to cut rates, it still enjoys support as a safe-haven currency, benefiting the USD. However, if there is a sharp rebound in oil prices or a surprisingly strong Canadian economy, the CAD could strengthen further.

Today's USDCAD price forecast: support range: 1.39000 - 1.39500, resistance range: 1.41000 - 1.41500.

USD/JPY rises after the Fed's interest rate cut decision

On Wednesday, October 29th, the USD/JPY pair drew a bullish candle with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 153.061, a low of 151.543, and a close of 152.700.

The Fed finally cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected. The market surprised the market, as the USD strengthened against other major currencies, including the Japanese Yen, which rose significantly within an hour. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, rose around 0.43% after the cut. The DXY rose to a high of 99.356 from a low of 98.624 and closed at 99.167.

The market had previously predicted that the Fed would cut interest rates, with a 99% chance of a cut, according to the Fedwatch tool, just hours before the release. However, what's more important is not just the cut itself, but the tone of the Fed Chairman's statement, whether it will be dovish or hawkish. The FOMC statement showed that economic activity has been growing at a moderate pace. Job growth slowed this year, and the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with this development. Inflation has been rising since the beginning of the year and remains relatively high. The committee recommends a long-term inflation target of 2%. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high, and the risk of a job decline has increased in recent months.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) currently does not expect major changes in interest rates in the short term. It is expected to maintain the interest rate at 0.50%. In theory, the Japanese yen is quite vulnerable due to the difference in interest rates and long-term expectations. If the BoJ signals a hawkish signal or the market anticipates a Japanese interest rate hike, the JPY could strengthen. Conversely, if the BoJ is very dovish, the JPY is likely to remain weak. Internal government pressure also contributed to the Japanese government's warning that, through its financial authorities, it would monitor currency volatility and potentially intervene if the JPY weakened too rapidly.

Considering the fundamentals of both the US and Japan, the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the Bank of Japan's policies and potential intervention by the Japanese government. Currently, the USD remains biased to strengthen, but the risk of a reversal is significant if the BoJ suddenly signals a hawkish stance or Japan intervenes to strengthen the JPY.

Today's short-term price range forecast is 151.00-153.00, while the broader forecast is 150.00-154.00. Potential support is around 151.50-150.80. If the JPY strengthens, the price could fall to 150.50-151.00. Resistance is around 152.80-153.30. If momentum is strong or the JPY weakens further, it could rise to 153.25-153.50.

Today, traders will focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy and the tone of its monetary policy statement, which may provide subtle clues about Japan's economic outlook. Markets sometimes react quickly to policy changes.

WTI oil prices stabilize near the middle band

The XTIUSD oil price on Thursday, October 30, drew a Doji candlestick, reflecting market indecision within a narrow price range. The price formed a high of 60.55, a low of 59.46, and a close of 60.08, after opening at 60.15.

Fundamentally, the crude oil market is currently dominated by concerns about oversupply and slowing global demand. Factors that could influence the decline in oil prices include the IEA report showing a significant oil supply surplus since the beginning of the year. Global production is estimated at 1.9 million barrels per day, primarily from non-OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, and Canada, and is expected to continue to increase until 2026.

Although OPEC+ previously restricted supply, they are expected to gradually ease cuts with planned output increases, which could add to supply pressure on the market. Oil demand growth is expected to slow significantly compared to historical trends due to more challenging macroeconomic conditions and increased transportation efficiency.

Global oil stocks continue to rise, including those held on ships/at sea, reaching a four-year high, indicating an oversupplied market. Economic data from major economies like China show no strong growth in oil consumption, while there is also a decline in the risk premium due to easing geopolitical tensions, such as the Middle East peace agreement. On the other hand, the US administration is known to prioritize lower oil prices around $50 per barrel to manage inflation.

On the other hand, as a supporting factor for oil prices, although OPEC+ is gradually increasing, they are expected to be cautious to prevent stocks from rising too rapidly. They could also consider new supply cuts if prices fall too far. There is also a view that amid US sanctions on Russia, overall oil demand by major consumers remains strong. Meanwhile, a high Oil Volatility Index indicates market distrust and the potential for rapid price declines, but this could also lead to a sudden price reversal.

Comparing fundamental factors on both sides, market sentiment appears to remain bearish, driven by a clear supply surplus and slowing demand growth, although comments from OPEC+ may provide some price support.

The forecast oil price range is likely to be in the range of 59-63. Key resistance is around 66, and short-term support is around 61.50-63. Long-term support is around 55.00, and short-term support is around 58.99-59.57.

Gold prices fell on Friday due to the Fed's hawkish tone.

Gold prices on Friday drew a bearish candle with a small body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of $4,046, a low of $3,972, and a close of $4,002. Gold prices reached their lowest point for October on October 28th at $3,886. Gold then rebounded to 4046 at the end of October.

Gold's decline over the weekend appeared to be triggered by several factors. In his post-meeting statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the possibility of a December interest rate cut, saying it was not a foregone conclusion and emphasizing that policy decisions would remain data-dependent. Gold price movements also depended on the strength of the US dollar. The US dollar and Treasury yields remained strong after the Fed's cautious guidance, weighing on gold's rise, as traders reduced expectations of a rate cut this year.

Meanwhile, the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended positively, providing some temporary relief from US-China trade tensions. Improving market sentiment is also a factor weighing on gold's safe-haven appeal.

The global market's next focus will likely be on Friday's NFP data and today's ISM Manufacturing PMI. However, both figures are currently tentative due to the potential impact of the US government shutdown.

Gold's daily movement is estimated to be in the range of $3935-$4080. Strong resistance is around 4140-4165; a breakout of this level could confirm a bullish trend. Strong support is around 3905-3935; a breakout of this level could confirm a deeper correction.

The Australian dollar is trending lower against the USD ahead of the RBA interest rate decision.

On Monday, November 3, the AUD/USD pair drew a small-bodied bearish candle with long shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This candlestick pattern extended the previous four-day losing streak. AUD/USD formed a high of 0.6535, a low of 0.65176, and a close of 0.65381 from an open of 0.65413.

The main factor likely to drive the AUD/USD pair today is the RBA's interest rate decision. The market currently expects the RBA to maintain its cash rate at 3.60%. If the RBA ultimately cuts rates as expected, the focus will shift to the accompanying statement, or RBA rate statement, for subtle hints about the RBA's future policy tone. If the statement is hawkish, indicating the RBA remains wary of inflation, the implication is likely to be that the AUD will strengthen. If the RBA unexpectedly cuts rates, the AUD is likely to weaken sharply. Conversely, if the RBA unexpectedly raises rates, the Australian dollar could strengthen sharply.

Given the Australian economic backdrop, the higher-than-expected monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2025 has reduced market bets on further interest rate cuts in the near term and provided temporary support for the AUD. The market will also be closely monitoring other economic data from Australia this week, such as the trade balance. A larger trade surplus could support the AUD. This is because the AUD has a strong correlation with commodities such as copper and iron ore, with its strategic partner, China. If the global recovery strengthens, this could support the AUD.

The current pressure on the AUD is primarily due to the continued strength of the USD. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates soon are supporting the USD and putting pressure on the AUD. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, has risen over the past five days, reflecting this strong performance. The DXY has currently reached 99.988. While the Chinese economy and commodity demand remain at risk, disappointing data could negatively impact the AUD.

Although several US economic data releases have been delayed due to the government shutdown, the market will continue to focus on this week's US employment report. Weak US data could pressure the USD, while stronger data could support it.

Price movements ahead of the RBA announcement are likely to be cautious. Key support is forecasted at 0.6480-0.6500, with key resistance at 0.6600-0.6610. The RBA interest rate decision is high-impact news, so strict risk management is required. Significant price movements could occur following the RBA announcement.

NZD/USD plummets to 0.56473, lowest since July 2025

The New Zealand dollar plummeted on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.57095, a low of 0.56473, and a close of 0.56511.

Several reasons underpinning the New Zealand dollar's weakness include signs of cooling momentum in China's manufacturing sector, a key export market for New Zealand, and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. The strengthening of the USD as a safe-haven currency has further pressured the New Zealand dollar. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against six major currencies, showed an increase and successfully crossed the psychological level of 100.00.

The NZD exchange rate against the USD has been declining in recent days, even trending lower monthly since July.

According to data from the RBNZ, the trade-weighted index for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) recently experienced a slight decline from 66.60 to 66.24, indicating depreciation against its trading partner currencies. Analysts appear to be predicting a more bearish outlook for the NZD against the USD.

From an economic perspective, New Zealand is facing relatively weak growth, and the RBNZ has indicated that it could ease monetary policy further. For example, news related to the RBNZ's intention to cut interest rates and warn of further easing. A further drop in the RBNZ's interest rate would tend to weaken the NZD, as its yield relative to the USD becomes less attractive. Today, the market will focus on the release of Canadian economic news, which will focus on employment data. New Zealand's unemployment rate is forecast to rise from 5.2% to 5.3%. A higher reading would further pressure the NZD, while a lower reading could support the NZD in the short term.

The USD is currently relatively strong because US yields remain high and investors are seeking safe havens amid global uncertainty. US monetary policy and the Fed remain hawkish in many other countries, giving the USD an advantage. Global risk-off sentiment could support the USD and weaken commodity currencies like the NZD. Risks that could accelerate movements include US inflation or employment data, the RBNZ announcement, major changes in New Zealand exports or commodity conditions, and significant changes in global risk sentiment.

The NZDUSD price range today is estimated to move within the main support range of 0.5550 - 05820, with a realistic range of 0.5620 - 05740. If a positive catalyst occurs, such as better-than-expected New Zealand data, the price may rise to 0.5740. If a negative catalyst occurs, such as a weakening China or a stronger US, the price may break through the 0.5600 support level.

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GBP/USD attempted a recovery after hitting a low of 1.30101

The GBPUSD price movement on Wednesday, November 5th, attempted to recover from losses by drawing a medium-bodied bullish candle. The price formed a high of 1.30528, a low of 1.30100, and a close of 1.30495.

The GBP/USD pair is trending downwards to a seven-month low due to negative sentiment toward the pound sterling. Recently, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves signaled the possibility of tax increases in the upcoming budget, raising fiscal concerns. The UK economy has delivered less-than-encouraging data, with inflation remaining high at 3.8% year-on-year, but economic growth and productivity are weak. This situation raises doubts about the Bank of England's interest rate policy, which could be forced to hold or even lower interest rates. Today, the BoE will decide on the official interest rate, which is expected to remain at 4%. An unexpected decision, such as a rate cut, could further pressure the GBP. Conversely, a higher-than-expected rate increase could support GBP appreciation.

On the other hand, the US dollar is relatively strong due to global conditions of greater stock sell-offs and riskier assets, prompting many investors to return to safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. Furthermore, expectations that the Fed will be more cautious in cutting interest rates are supporting the strengthening of the USD amid the ongoing US federal government shutdown, which is now the longest in history.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, continues to show strength, reaching a high of 100.360, a low of 100.059, and closing at 100.182. The DXY's rise has crossed four moving averages: the 20, 50, 100, and 200 moving averages. Some analysts say a DXY above 100 indicates greater USD strength.

With weak GBP fundamentals and a strong USD, the structure suggests the risk of GBP/USD falling further, or at least fluctuating in a sideways to bearish range. However, a change could occur if significant positive news emerges for the UK, such as economic data far above expectations or the Bank of England (BoE) giving a hawkish signal, which could trigger a brief rally.

Today's forecast price range: resistance around 1.3250 - 1.3300, and support around 1.2950 - 1.3000. A realistic range today is estimated at around 1.3000 - 1.3300.

Oil prices are neutral, tending towards bearish amid oversupply concerns

The price of WTI crude oil on Thursday tended to be neutral with a bearish bias. The price drew a bearish candle with a short body and long shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. WTI oil prices formed a high of 60.28, a low of 58.81, and a close of 59.39. The price range moved near the middle band line.

Fundamentally, oil prices are currently under pressure. Concerns about oversupply remain a key issue in fundamental oil analysis. The latest data on US oil stocks from the EIA showed a significant surge of 5.2 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations. This increase in inventories adds to concerns about oversupply in the global market. US crude oil production is reported to remain at a record level of around 13.65 million barrels per day, further strengthening the supply side.

OPEC+ began cutting production in early November, supporting oil prices. However, the impact of excess supply from the US and concerns about weakening global demand tend to polarize market sentiment.

Global oil demand is vulnerable to global economic downturns, as US manufacturing data and Chinese economic activity show weakness. This puts pressure on demand. Furthermore, a strengthening US dollar can also be a factor in weakening oil prices. A stronger US dollar makes commodities denominated in US dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing relative demand.

The market currently appears to be caught between bullish factors stemming from OPEC+ cuts and bearish factors stemming from excess supply from the US and weak demand. Recent reports indicate that the oil market remains clouded by concerns about oversupply and weak economic data.

Considering the Doji-like candlestick pattern, this reflects market indecision. Overall, fundamental conditions tend to be neutral to slightly bearish, with OPEC+ cuts as a positive factor and weak global demand and oversupply as a negative factor.

Current geopolitical factors are less supportive of rising oil prices. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East typically support increases, peace or ceasefires in conflict zones tend to depress prices further.

Today's XTIUSD price range is estimated to be within a reasonable range of $57-$63.

Silver prices corrected, awaiting new triggers

The XAGUSD pair moved steadily within a narrow range on Friday, November 7th, drawing a small-bodied bullish candle with a relatively long shadow at the top of the candle. Silver prices reached a high of $ 48,868, a low of $ 47,627, and closed at $48,225.

Several factors influence silver prices, particularly industrial demand and inventories, US monetary policy, US dollar strength, market sentiment, and safe-haven trading.

From an industrial demand perspective, silver is gaining attention as a precious metal. It is primarily used in solar panels, electric vehicles, and various electronic devices. According to analysis, more than 60% of silver demand comes from these industrial sectors. Currently, despite high demand for green energy, the gloomy global manufacturing environment is one of the reasons holding back silver's rise. Physical supply is said to be under pressure, particularly because silver is often a byproduct of mining other metals, making it difficult to quickly increase production when demand increases. Under these conditions, structurally strong industrial demand and limited supply conditions support silver's resilience or even further gains.

Silver prices are also heavily influenced by the Fed's monetary policy and the US dollar, as silver is quoted in USD. When the dollar weakens or interest rates are expected to fall, precious metals like silver often benefit. However, there is currently an element of uncertainty in the US economy, delayed by the longest government shutdown in US history. Expectations of interest rate cuts are shifting, leaving the market somewhat dependent on the next catalyst.

Although silver's demand is primarily driven by the industrial sector, this precious metal also possesses safe-haven characteristics, albeit less strongly than gold. During times of global uncertainty, demand for silver can surge as a hedge. However, because prices have risen significantly from previous levels, there is a risk of a correction or consolidation, and the market may be waiting for a new trigger before a sharp move.

In the long term, silver remains structurally bullish due to strong industrial demand and limited supply. However, in the short term, the price is somewhat mixed without a strong catalyst, and prices could move sideways or correct slightly. The main risks are a strengthening US dollar or US economic data indicating economic resilience, which could diminish silver's appeal as a hedge.

The silver price forecast in a conservative scenario: support is in the range of 45,720-43,660, and resistance is around 49,000. If a breakout occurs, silver has the potential to reach 51,670.

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Gold prices rise as interest rate cut expectations grow

Gold prices surged on Monday, November 10, 2025, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of $4115 and a low of $3997, closing at $4110. The gold price surge has crossed the middle band line from the downside.

The gold price surge coincided with news that the US government could reopen soon after the longest government shutdown in US history in 2025. The United States Senate passed a stopgap funding bill on Sunday, with a 60-40 vote in favor. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives for President Donald Trump's signature. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced Monday that he believes they have the votes to pass the stopgap bill.

Factors from the US often drive gold prices. Recent US economic data, showing a weakening labor market and declining consumer sentiment, have raised expectations of an interest rate cut at the Fed's December 2025 meeting. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and tend to weaken the US dollar.

Concerns about global growth and a weakening US economy, along with the US government shutdown, despite signs of an end, have prompted investors to turn to safe-haven assets like gold.

Gold is often negatively correlated with the US dollar. Recently, the US dollar index (DXY) weakened below the psychological level of 100 and has fallen again to a low of 99.455.

Furthermore, continued central bank purchases also provide psychological support and strong fundamentals for gold prices in the long term. The bullish factor on Monday concludes that the market's focus is on weak US data and the potential for interest rate cuts.

Today's forecast price ranges worth noting include a potential low of $3,960, a high of $4,150, and an intraday range of $4,000-$4,110.

WTI oil prices rise as USD falls

The XTI/USD pair, the commodity pair for WTI oil against the US dollar, rose on Tuesday, forming a long-bodied bullish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom. WTI oil prices reached a high of 61.10, a low of 59.60, and closed at 60.81. The rise in oil prices approached the 50-day moving average (MA) line.

Tuesday's oil price increase was the largest increase since the beginning of the week, after a sideways movement near the middle band. The weakening US dollar was one of the reasons for the increase in oil prices, as oil is quoted in US dollars. The weakening US dollar encouraged holders of other currencies to purchase oil at lower prices.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, fell on Tuesday from a high of 99.738 to a low of 99.297 and closed at 99.447. News of the end of the US government shutdown appeared to weigh on the US dollar amid expectations of a Fed rate cut. On Monday, Democratic lawmakers agreed to support the government funding bill in the US Senate and advance it to the Republican-controlled House. The reopening of US federal agencies after the longest shutdown in history will resume government spending, a scenario that will increase Oil demand.

In terms of global supply, the market is experiencing concerns about oversupply from major economies, including OPEC+. Some analysts say OPEC+ oil production will continue to increase, targeting 137,000 barrels per day in December. This excess supply could put pressure on oil prices. However, the risk of supply disruptions caused by US sanctions on Russia and geopolitical disruptions could support short-term oil prices.

Data on US oil inventories and refinery utilization rates suggest consumption may increase, supporting demand. However, on a macro level, the global economy is relatively weak, so long-term demand could be restrained, putting downward pressure on oil prices. Geopolitical risk sentiment could also trigger a risk premium if a conflict escalates, potentially leading to rapid price increases.

The general outlook for oil fundamentals in the short term suggests price support due to supply risks and rising consumption. In the medium term, there is pressure from rising production coupled with subdued global demand. Oil prices appear to be more neutral to slightly bullish, with the caution that upside is limited. Today's potential oil price forecast is for support at 59.00 and resistance at 61.00. The broader range is 57.50-62.50.

AUD/USD rose, awaiting the jobs report.

The AUD/USD pair rose, drawing a bullish candle on Wednesday, November 12th, with a long body and shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The AUD/USD price formed a high of 0.65502, a low of 0.65162, and a close of 0.65429.

The Australian economy appears quite resilient, with commodity exports supporting it, and Australia is often considered a risk-on currency when global risk appetite improves. If global risk appetite improves and commodity demand increases, the AUD could receive a boost.

Today, the market will focus on Australian employment data, which could be the main catalyst for the AUD today. Consensus estimates a job increase of 20k, up from the previous increase of 14.9k. A stronger figure above 20,000 would be considered bullish for the AUD. Strong data raises expectations that the RBA may need to maintain high interest rates for longer or even consider a hike, supporting the AUD. Conversely, a weak figure would be considered bearish, indicating a weakening labor market and reducing pressure on the RBA to tighten policy. Australia's unemployment rate is expected to be 4.4%, up from 4.5% previously. A lower actual value tends to support the AUD, and likewise, a higher reading could pressure the AUD.

The AUD is also known as a commodity currency, sensitive to the price of iron ore and coal. Rising commodity prices typically support the AUD, while falling prices tend to pressure the AUD.

On the other hand, the USD is generally strengthening, driven by expectations of a hawkish Fed policy to control inflation. The DXY is currently at 99.505, slightly up from its previous low of 99.287. With no high-impact data releases, investors will be paying close attention to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the House of Representatives' vote on a funding bill to officially end the government shutdown. According to the Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is 65.4%, and the probability of maintaining rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range is 34.6%. This means the market is starting to be optimistic about the possibility of a rate cut at the December meeting.

Ahead of the release of Australian employment data, price movements are expected to be volatile. A bullish scenario would occur if Australian employment data is significantly better than expected, overcoming concerns about the Fed's hawkish policy. A bearish scenario would occur if Australian employment data disappoints and the USD continues to strengthen, driven by safe-haven demand or Fed expectations.

The forecasted AUDUSD price range is based on the main support level of 0.6480 - 0.6500, with the main resistance level at 0.6580 - 0.6600.

EUR/JPY Sets Record High Since the 1990s

The EUR/JPY currency pair, or the Euro against the Japanese Yen, is trending bullish. On Thursday, November 14, 2025, the EUR/JPY rose, drawing a bullish candlestick, extending its four-day winning streak. The price formed a high of 179.979, a low of 179.216, and a close of 179.798.

Positive factors supporting the Euro include the relatively stable Eurozone economic recovery and expectations that the ECB remains vigilant about inflation. Some analysts indicate a bullish bias for EUR/JPY as the Euro strengthens while the Yen weakens. The market's primary focus today is on key data that could confirm the recovery and address economic concerns. GDP is expected to grow by 0.2%. Stronger data could potentially support the Euro. The trade balance is expected to decline to 8.88 from the previous release of 9.78. Trade balance data indicate global demand for European goods. A larger surplus versus a narrowing deficit could provide positive support for the Euro.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen continues to face major pressure from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) loose monetary policy, and Japan's low yields compared to other countries make the JPY less attractive as a safe-haven currency. Reports suggest the BoJ is cautious and remains vigilant about the yen, which is under pressure from external factors, including the US and the euro. News today indicates a 5-year JGB government bond auction, which could provide a small indication of investor appetite for Japanese assets.

The strength of the US dollar and US bond yields could have an impact if the dollar strengthens and US yields rise, allowing the JPY to weaken further, and the euro to gain momentum if global risk conditions improve.

With today's Eurozone GDP data in the spotlight and global risk sentiment tending to be cautious, but also considering the recovery, the fundamental analysis bias for EURJPY today is leaning towards strengthening the euro if the Eurozone GDP data is positive or meets recovery expectations. However, other risks, including disappointing geopolitical and economic issues or sudden changes in Bank of Japan and ECB policy, remain a concern.

Today's key resistance range is estimated at around 180 if bullish momentum remains strong, and key support is around 178 as short-term support. If it fails to hold, it could reach another support level of 176.50. The realistic range is estimated at 178.00 - 180.50, with the possibility of an upward breakout and a downward breakdown if surprising data emerges.

USD/CAD strengthened slightly after a positive manufacturing sales report.

On Friday, November 14, 2025, the USD/CAD pair drew a bearish candlestick, forming a half-body of the previous candlestick. The price formed a high of 1.40453, a low of 1.40141, and a close of 1.40149. The strengthening Canadian dollar limited the bullish bias from the previous day.

Statistics Canada's September 2025 Manufacturing Survey reported that manufacturing sales reached their highest level since February 2025, rising 3.3% month-over-month to $72.1 billion in September. Sales increased in 14 of 21 subsectors, led by transportation equipment +9.2% and petroleum and coal +5.3%. With the overall increase in September, total manufacturing sales rose 2.7% year-over-year. Quarterly, sales increased 2.8% to $212.3 billion in the third quarter of 2025, the largest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2022. The petroleum and coal subsector, at +12.5%, primary metals at +6.4%, and transportation equipment at +3.2%, were the largest contributors to the increase in the third quarter of 2025.

Today, the market will focus on Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may provide subtle clues about future BoC policy. Monthly CPI is estimated at 0.2%, slightly up from 0.1% in the previous period. The median year-over-year CPI is estimated at 3.1%, slightly down from the previously revised 3.2%. Higher-than-expected inflation data tends to support a more hawkish BoC monetary policy stance, thus strengthening the CAD.

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to around 2.25% in October, and the market believes the easing cycle may be nearing completion. On the other hand, the Fed is also in a position where a cut is no longer seen as a near-term certainty, thus maintaining the USD's yield advantage over the CAD.

Because the CAD is a commodity currency and is also influenced by interest rates and commodity exports, if USD yields become more attractive, the USD tends to strengthen against the CAD. Global oil prices appear to remain overshadowed by concerns about oversupply, despite Friday's rise.

However, despite the slight increase in oil prices, the CAD has not yet significantly strengthened due to interest rates and a relatively weak domestic economy. The Bank of Canada lowered its growth projections for 2025 and 2026, reflecting Canada's somewhat sluggish economic growth. On the other hand, the US economy has been relatively strong, as evidenced by several reports that support the USD. While elements are supporting the CAD, such as positive manufacturing surveys, commodities, and the potential halt to interest rate cuts, the overall situation gives the USD a slight advantage in the short term.

The market currently shows the USDCAD pair moving within a relatively narrow range, awaiting key data such as inflation data and Fed officials' speeches that could trigger a change in direction. External factors such as global risk appetite, US-Canada trade conditions, and tariffs are also cited as potential directional factors. Fundamental analysis concludes that the USDCAD pair is slightly bullish, or at least that the CAD is unlikely to strengthen strongly unless there is a major positive data surprise for Canada or a sharp rise in oil prices. However, due to the balanced conditions and the market's somewhat cautious approach, the likelihood of significant action is limited or could even move sideways with slight USD strengthening.

The forecasted daily range movement is lower support around 1.3980, and upper resistance around 1.4050. If a bullish USD bias emerges, it could reach 1.4090. Conversely, if the CAD receives support, the price could retreat to 1.3950.

AUDUSD plummets ahead of Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The Australian dollar faced increasing selling pressure on Monday, November 17, 2025, breaking through the key support level of 0.6500 ahead of today's RBA minutes. The AUDUSD candlestick drew a long-bodied bearish candlestick with almost no shadows, reflecting a sharp decline. At the time of writing, the AUDUSD pair had formed a high of 0.65375, a low of 0.64820, and a close of 0.64861. This decline has crossed the middle band and is seeking a lower band target of around 0.64554.

The RBA is currently maintaining its cash rate at 3.6% and stating that the current policy is somewhat restrictive to dampen lingering inflation. Due to relatively high Australian inflation and a rebounding housing market, the RBA appears cautious about cutting more quickly. The market had initially anticipated a rate cut from the RBA, but these expectations have been tempered by relatively strong Australian employment data.

On the other hand, the US dollar strengthened due to expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates later than expected. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at its December 10, 2025, meeting is only 42.6%. Meanwhile, 55.6% believe the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged (3.75%-4.00%). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, showed improved performance, rising from a low of 99.245 to a high of 99.598 on Monday.

As the interest rate differential between the US and Australia narrows, this could also put pressure on the Australian dollar against the USD. The AUD is often classified as a commodity currency, meaning it is influenced by Australian exports, particularly to China, such as iron ore and copper. China's economic conditions and the commodity dilemma could put pressure on the AUD. Furthermore, global risk sentiment is a factor. If the market is optimistic and tends to be risk-on, the AUD could strengthen. Conversely, if market sentiment is fearful and tends to be risk-off, the USD, as a safe-haven currency, will benefit. Currently, the USD is receiving support from the strength of the US economy and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts, which has put some pressure on the AUD.

Overall, based on fundamental analysis, there is a negative bias towards AUDUSD in the short term due to a combination of USD strength, the RBA's lack of aggressive policy cuts, and the ongoing commodity market dilemma. However, this does not mean the AUD will fall freely, as there are also supporting factors such as stable interest rates in Australia and the potential for a commodity rebound if Chinese data improves.

The forecasted price range for the AUDUSD pair today is estimated at around 0.6460 - 0.6580. The support level to watch is around 0.6490 - 0.6465, with a breakout potentially reaching 0.6420. The main resistance level is around 0.6550 - 0.6580, with a further breakout potentially reaching 0.6620.

Oil prices strengthen despite persistent supply surplus concerns

The XTI/USD oil price, an instrument representing the price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil against the USD, rose on Tuesday, forming a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom. Oil prices reached a high of 60.73, a low of 59.26, and closed at 60.61.

WTI traded up nearly 1.5% despite persistent supply surplus concerns. Traders appear to be more focused on the upcoming US sanctions against Russia, which target Rosneft and Lukoil, due November 21st.

Oil prices are influenced by supply and demand. If US crude oil inventory data declines and refinery utilization increases, this can support prices. For example, the EIA's continuous decline in US refinery inventories is a positive factor. Today, the EIA's economic calendar will release crude oil inventories, which are expected to show a decline of 1.9 million.

On the other hand, some analysts are paying attention to the latest projections from the International Energy Agency, which predict that the global oil market is on track for a period of oversupply, with non-OPEC output growth and softer demand potentially weighing on the balance until early 2026.

Besides supply and demand factors, geopolitical factors are also of concern to traders. Supply-side pressure can arise if geopolitical risks arise, such as sanctions against producing countries. For example, comments that sanctions against Russia could disrupt oil exports and increase spot premiums.

Although short-term conditions could support an increase, there are risks from global oversupply and slowing demand, which could depress prices.

Another factor that traders are paying attention to regarding oil prices is the relationship between the US dollar, interest rates, and the global economy. Because oil is traded in US dollars, a strengthening USD could depress prices by making it relatively expensive for holders of other currencies. A slowing global economy could also depress oil prices.

Currently, conditions appear to favor a consolidation phase or a slight upside rather than a major breakout to the upside or downside. This is due to the relationship between short-term supply and inventory, but also the constraints of oversupply and weak demand.

The forecast short-term price range is estimated at 58.50-61.50 per barrel. Key resistance is around 61.50-62.00; a breakout of this level could lead to a rise to 63.50. Key support is around 58.00-58.50; a breakout of this level could lead to further support at 55.00.

Gold Trims Gains as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Ease

Gold prices failed to extend their gains on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, and trimmed gains by drawing a short-bodied bullish candle with a long shadow at the top of the candle. Gold prices formed a high of $4132, a low of $4055, and a close of $4073.

The Fed minutes stated that most officials warned that additional rate cuts could risk higher inflation and signaled a weakened commitment to the 20% target. Many supported the October rate cut, but some said they could support keeping rates unchanged. Officials generally noted that inflation remains quite high. The split in views within the FOMC points to a potential pause in rate cuts. There are concerns among hawkish members about the risk of high inflation becoming entrenched.

Today's market sentiment will be dominated by the release of crucial US economic data and its impact on expectations for the Fed's interest rate policy. Today's primary market focus is on the delayed release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. This data is crucial because it will provide a clear signal regarding the health of the US labor market, a key factor in the Fed's interest rate decision. According to Forexfactory, the NFP is forecast to rise by 53,000 from the previously revised 22,000. While higher than previously, the 53k figure is still relatively low for population growth. The weak figure reflects a significant slowdown in the US labor market. If the NFP data is worse than expected, it could increase market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut at its December meeting. This could support gold, a non-yielding asset. Conversely, if the NFP data is stronger than expected, it could reduce expectations for an interest rate cut and support the USD, as it would increase US Treasury yields.

The risk-off sentiment in global markets, fueled by economic uncertainty following the previous US government shutdown, continues to provide fundamental support for gold as a safe-haven asset.

The US dollar, as reflected by the US Dollar Index (DXY), surged to a high of 100,343 from a low of 99,494. The DXY tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies. Conversely, US Treasury yields were stable, with the 10-year US government bond yield at 4.11%. US real yields.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs revealed that central banks continue to buy gold, particularly the People's Bank of China (PBoC). The PBoC added an estimated 15 tons of the yellow metal to its forex reserves two months ago. They added that the PBoC could continue its purchases in November, which could push bullion prices higher.

The direction of gold prices today is expected to depend heavily on the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data release. However, based on recent sentiment, there is strong bullish potential if the employment data proves weak as expected, which could weaken the USD and increase gold.

The forecast price movement range is strong support around 4,030-4,032. However, if the NFP data is surprisingly strong, gold may break below $4,000. Strong resistance is estimated at around 4,118-4,120. A breakout of this level could lead gold to rise, with a target of 4,132. Gold is likely to be highly volatile today following the NFP release, necessitating strict risk management.

GBP pares losses ahead of UK retail sales data

The GBPUSD currency pair drew a bullish candlestick yesterday, Thursday, November 20th, with a small body and relatively long shadows at the top and bottom. The price formed a high of 1.13124, a low of 1.30376, and a close of 1.30758 from an open of 1.30564.

In the American trading session, GBP strengthened following the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which far exceeded expectations, revealing that the economy added more people to the labor force than expected. The US economy added 119,000 jobs in September, boosting the chances of a Fed rate cut to 43%, despite the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4%. Hawkish Fed officials warned against easing policy too quickly, as it could push inflation higher and undermine its 2% inflation target commitment. Meanwhile, in the UK, declining inflation and confidence reinforced bets on a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut.

Today is a busy day of economic data releases that have the potential to trigger market volatility. The pound sterling will be the main focus in the European session with the release of important UK retail sales data. According to Forexfactory, UK retail sales rose 0.5% in the previous release, and today's data is expected to contract by -0.1%. The implications of a strong data release could increase optimism about consumer spending and economic growth, providing a positive boost to the GBP. A weak figure could raise fears of a recession or slowdown, which could weigh on the GBP.

Other data releases of interest include the UK flash manufacturing PMI and the UK services PMI. The PMI is an indicator of healthy business activity; a reading above 50 indicates expansion. A stronger-than-expected UK PMI could support the GBP. The flash manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 49.3, a slight contraction from the previous release of 49.7. The flash services PMI is expected to come in at 51.9, a slight decrease from the previous release of 52.3.

In recent days, there have been reports of a decline in UK inflation (CPI) to 3.6% in October. This has the potential to increase speculation that the BoE will hold or even cut interest rates sooner, which tends to be negative for GBP. The market will be watching today's data for further clues regarding the BoE's policy direction.

Today, the US will also release economic data, including the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI. The US Flash Manufacturing PMI is estimated at 52.0, slightly down from the previous release of 52.5. The Flash Services PMI is estimated at 54.6, down from the previous release of 54.8. Looking at the UK and US PMI figures, business activity in the US is stronger than in the UK.

General sentiment towards the US dollar is currently influenced by the Fed's comments and US bond yields. The dollar tends to strengthen if US data shows a resilient economy, which could increase speculation that the Fed will hold interest rates for longer.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently up around 0.14% and is above the 100 level, indicating the US dollar's strong performance against six other major currencies. The DXY reached a high of 100.360 before finally falling to 100.257.

Today's forecast shows key resistance in the 1.3150-1.3180 range, and key support in the 1.2950-1.2920 range. A breakout of these levels could lead to further price increases.