Daily Technical Analysis by Capital Street FX

Forex Markets Steady as Traders Eye ECB Cut, US Jobs Data, and Trump-Xi Trade Talks.

EUR/USD trades just under the 1.1400 mark as Eurozone inflation dips below the ECB’s 2% target.

The pair could see renewed strength as the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure, weighed down by investor caution surrounding escalating tariff uncertainties and their potential drag on US economic growth. April’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed 7.39 million new job openings—surpassing both the March figure of 7.2 million and the market forecast of 7.1 million—pointing to continued resilience in the US labor market. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May, expected to show 130,000 job gains. A stronger-than-expected reading may boost the USD and exert downside pressure on EUR/USD. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments remain in focus. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet soon to address ongoing trade tensions. On Monday, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced compliance with the agreement by suspending certain tariff and non-tariff measures targeting the US. However, last week, President Trump accused China of violating the recent tariff truce. In the Eurozone, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined to 1.9% year-over-year in May—below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target for the first time in eight months. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, eased to 2.3% from 2.7% in April. The weaker inflation data has bolstered expectations for a rate cut at this week’s ECB meeting. Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point reduction in the Deposit Facility Rate, bringing it down to 2%.
Technical Overview With Chart :


https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...83a894798a7ab3
Moving Averages :

Exponential :

 

1. MA 10 :1353 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20 :1319 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50 :1196 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

 

1. MA 10 :1356 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20 :1284 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50 :1231 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 56.4656 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 83.3643 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

 

1. R1 :1411 R2 :1.1495
2. S1 :1142 S2 :1.1058

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.1361 | Take Profit : 1.1444 | Stop Loss : 1.1313

GBP/USD



GBP/USD holds above the 1.3500 level as the US Dollar weakens amid a broad “Sell America” sentiment.

The pair may gain further support as the US Dollar remains under pressure amid the prevailing “Sell America” sentiment, driven by growing tariff uncertainty and its potential impact on US economic growth. April’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported 7.39 million new positions, exceeding both March’s 7.2 million and the market forecast of 7.1 million. Traders now turn their attention to the May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show a 130,000 increase in jobs. Geopolitical developments remain in focus as well. A potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is anticipated to address ongoing trade tensions. This follows China’s Ministry of Commerce rejecting Washington’s claims that Beijing violated the recent tariff truce. On the domestic front, Bank of England (BoE) officials appeared before Parliament for the Monetary Policy Report Hearings, offering insights into the central bank’s outlook. Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated his view that interest rates will likely be lowered but acknowledged a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic path ahead. He also warned that escalating global trade tensions could weigh on investment and growth. The hearings revealed a divided stance within the BoE. While some policymakers worry that inflation may remain sticky, others caution that maintaining elevated interest rates for too long could damage the economy. With no clear consensus, the BoE is expected to take a data-dependent approach to future rate decisions.

Technical Overview With Chart :
https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...c7df1fff224df5
Moving Averages :

Exponential :

 

1. MA 10 :3483 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20 :3425 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50 :3262 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

 

1. MA 10 :3501 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20 :3401 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50 :3250 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 61.0668 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 80.8967 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

 

1. R1 :3568 R2 :1.3675
2. S1 :3222 S2 :1.3115

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.3507 | Take Profit : 1.3582 | Stop Loss : 1.3469

USD/CAD


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Forex Markets Steady Ahead of ECB Rate Cut and US NFP; EUR/USD, GBP/USD Hold Bullish Bias

Major currency pairs traded cautiously on Thursday as investors awaited key economic events, including the ECB’s interest rate decision and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Mixed global data and shifting central bank expectations kept volatility in check, while the U.S. Dollar remained in focus amid rising uncertainty.
Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD


EUR/USD holds steady near the 1.1400 level as markets await the ECB’s interest rate decision.
The EUR/USD pair trades with a cautious tone, hovering slightly above the key 1.1400 mark during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair is likely to remain range-bound as investors await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, set for release at 12:15 GMT. The ECB is widely expected to cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the Deposit Facility Rate down to 2% and the Main Refinancing Operations Rate to 2.15%. This would mark the ECB’s seventh consecutive rate cut and the eighth since it began its monetary easing cycle in June last year. Market confidence in another rate cut has strengthened amid continued disinflation in the Eurozone. Preliminary data for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) released Tuesday showed inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target. With the Federal Reserve also expected to ease policy, investors will closely monitor ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-decision press conference for signals on the central bank’s policy direction in the second half of the year. Markets will also be watching for any updates on trade negotiations with the United States. Attention will then shift to the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May, due on Friday.

Technical Overview With Chart:
https://www.trade2win.com/attachment...18-png.341929/

Moving Averages
Exponential:

 

1. MA 10: 1.1367 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20: 1.1330 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50: 1.1205 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

 

1. MA 10: 1.1372 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20: 1.1295 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50: 1.1244 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.3952 | Buy Zone | Bullish
5. Stochastic Oscillator: 82.1478 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

 

1. R1: 1.1411
2. R2: 1.1495
3. S1: 1.1142
4. S2: 1.1058

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:

 

1. Limit Buy: 1.1367
2. Take Profit: 1.1513
3. Stop Loss: 1.1290

GBP/USD
GBP/USD stays under pressure below the 1.3550 mark as the U.S. Dollar regains strength, indicating a potential technical correction.
GBP/USD pulls back from its recent gains, trading near the 1.3550 level during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair weakens as the U.S. Dollar strengthens on the back of a technical correction. However, the downside may be limited, as the Greenback could come under renewed pressure due to deteriorating risk sentiment linked to growing tariff uncertainties and concerns over their impact on U.S. economic growth. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the Services PMI declined to 49.9 in May, down from April’s 51.6 and below the expected 52.0. Additionally, the ADP report revealed that the U.S. private sector added just 37,000 jobs in May—well below the revised April figure of 60,000 and the forecast of 115,000. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged signs of softening in the labor market but emphasized ongoing economic uncertainty, suggesting the Federal Reserve will remain cautious and data-dependent. In contrast, UK economic data offered a slight boost. The S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 50.3 in May from April’s 48.5, beating the preliminary reading of 49.4. The Services PMI also improved to 50.9, signaling modest growth in the sector. Meanwhile, UK exporters will temporarily face the previous 25% tariff rate after President Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday easing the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Technical Overview With Chart:
https://www.trade2win.com/attachment...88-png.341930/

Moving Averages
Exponential:

 

1. MA 10: 1.3497 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20: 1.3438 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50: 1.3273 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple:

 

1. MA 10: 1.3515 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
2. MA 20: 1.3417 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50: 1.3262 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index): 61.8009 | Neutral Zone | Neutral
5. Stochastic Oscillator: 82.7285 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels:

 

1. R1: 1.3568
2. R2: 1.3675
3. S1: 1.3222
4. S2: 1.3115

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion:

 

1. Limit Buy: 1.3544
2. Take Profit: 1.3675
3. Stop Loss: 1.2960

USD/CHF
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US Dollar Gains as Fed Holds Rates, Geopolitical Tensions Escalate, and ECB, BoE, SNB Take Divergent Paths.


Markets In Focus Today – EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues to decline, approaching the 1.1450 level ahead of ECB President Lagarde’s upcoming speech.

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline toward 1.1465 during Thursday’s Asian session, as the Euro weakens against the US Dollar amid a broader risk-off sentiment fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market participants are now turning their attention to upcoming speeches from key European Central Bank (ECB) officials — including Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, and Luis de Guindos — for potential direction. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% during its June meeting, maintaining the range set since December. The Fed indicated a slower pace of rate cuts ahead, citing concerns that tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump could elevate consumer prices. According to the latest “dot plot,” the FOMC still anticipates two rate cuts later this year. Adding to the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, Bloomberg reported early Thursday that US officials are preparing for a potential military strike on Iran, possibly over the weekend. Fears of a wider conflict from direct US involvement are driving investors toward the Dollar, pressuring the EUR/USD pair further. However, hawkish commentary from ECB policymakers could offer some support to the Euro. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the cycle of rate reductions is nearing its end, emphasizing that the central bank is now “in a good position” to address ongoing economic uncertainties.

Technical Overview With Chart :

https://www.trade2win.com/proxy.php?...1f8266d6b9e59b


Moving Averages :

Exponential :

 

1. MA 10 :1475 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
2. MA 20 :1432 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50 :1299 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :

 

1. MA 10 :1484 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
2. MA 20 :1430 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
3. MA 50 :1356 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.3277 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 52.0613 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

 

1. R1 :1411 R2 :1.1495
2. S1 :1142 S2 :1.1058

Overall Sentiment : Bullish Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 1.1444 | Take Profit : 1.1530 | Stop Loss : 1.1408

GBP/USD

GBP/USD remains under pressure, trading near the 1.3400 level ahead of the Bank of England’s policy.
announcement.

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Major Currency Pairs Trade Mixed as Traders Await Key Economic Data.

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs opened the week with mixed momentum as investors awaited critical economic data and upcoming central bank decisions. The Euro and Pound gained modestly amid political uncertainty in Europe and rate expectations in the UK, while the Yen and Australian Dollar weakened despite improving optimism over U.S.-China trade progress. Overall, the foreign exchange market remains cautious as traders position ahead of key policy announcements from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan.
Market Overview
The FX market is navigating through a week dominated by global macro events and central bank expectations. The Euro is holding firm as ECB policymakers signal comfort with current borrowing costs, while political turbulence in France threatens to limit its gains. The British Pound trades above 1.3300 but faces downside pressure due to expectations of further Bank of England rate cuts. The Japanese Yen continues to weaken on fiscal policy concerns, while the Australian Dollar remains under pressure ahead of crucial inflation data. Traders are closely watching U.S. new home sales and central bank policy signals for directional cues.
Technical Summary (Compact Table – Major Forex Pairs)
PairCurrent PriceRSIStochasticSentimentDirectionTrade Suggestion

EUR/USD1.163745.7942.99BearishSellLimit Sell: 1.1637 → TP: 1.1592 → SL: 1.1667

GBP/USD1.333241.0129.42BearishSellLimit Sell: 1.3332 → TP: 1.3287 → SL: 1.3358

USD/JPY152.1665.5789.16BullishBuyLimit Buy: 152.16 → TP: 154.40 → SL: 150.85

AUD/USD0.652350.2943.97BullishBuyLimit Buy: 0.6523 → TP: 0.6568 → SL: 0.6503

Analyst Commentary per Asset

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues its fourth straight session of gains, trading near 1.1640 ahead of Germany’s IFO Business Climate data. Support comes from ECB member Escrivá’s confidence in current rates, but political risks in France limit upside potential. Reports of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations could strengthen the U.S. Dollar, restraining further Euro appreciation. Technicals remain bearish with multiple moving averages signaling downward pressure.
Bias: Sell below 1.1650 with targets at 1.1590.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...135125.628.png
GBP/USD
GBP/USD trades slightly higher above 1.3300, supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar, but the broader bias remains bearish. Market sentiment is pressured by expectations of further BoE rate cuts and soft UK economic indicators. Fiscal concerns ahead of the Autumn Budget and steady U.S. inflation expectations further weigh on the Pound. Technical readings confirm a bearish outlook as all major moving averages point lower.
Bias: Sell below 1.3350 with near-term target at 1.3280.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...135129.282.png
USD/JPY
USD/JPY surged to a two-week high near 153.25 as the Yen weakened amid fiscal expansion expectations from Japan’s new leadership. Rising Japanese service inflation supports speculation of BoJ tightening, but risk-on sentiment and a dovish Fed outlook favor continued USD strength in the short term. Technicals indicate strong bullish momentum, with RSI in the buy zone and Stochastic near overbought territory.
Bias: Buy above 152.00, targeting 154.40.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...135141.050.png
AUD/USD
AUD/USD remains under pressure, retreating slightly after earlier gains driven by optimism over U.S.-China trade progress. Markets await Australian inflation data, which could influence the RBA’s rate outlook. Given Australia’s economic ties to China, progress in trade negotiations could support a rebound in the AUD. Technical indicators suggest mild bullishness, supported by positive short-term moving averages.
Bias: Buy on dips toward 0.6520, targeting 0.6565.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...135144.539.png
AI Q&A
Q1: Which currency pair shows the strongest bullish momentum today?
A1: USD/JPY demonstrates the strongest bullish momentum, supported by fiscal optimism in Japan and rising U.S. yields.
Q2: What could limit Euro gains this week?
A2: Political instability in France and renewed U.S. Dollar strength could cap EUR/USD near resistance levels.
Q3: Why is the British Pound under pressure despite a weaker USD?
A3: The Pound remains weighed down by BoE rate-cut expectations and fiscal uncertainties ahead of the UK Budget.
Q4: How are U.S.-China trade talks affecting commodity currencies?
A4: Progress in trade negotiations has supported risk sentiment, benefiting the Australian Dollar, although gains remain limited ahead of key inflation data.
Q5: What key events should traders watch today?
A5: Focus is on U.S. New Home Sales (Sep), Germany’s IFO Business Survey, and market commentary ahead of the FOMC and BoJ meetings later this week.
Key Takeaways

1. EUR/USD gains ahead of German IFO data but remains vulnerable to U.S. Dollar strength.
2. GBP/USD holds above 1.3300 yet stays under bearish pressure due to BoE rate-cut expectations.
3. USD/JPY surges to two-week highs amid fiscal optimism in Japan and a softer Yen.
4. AUD/USD trades range-bound; upcoming inflation data and trade optimism will dictate direction.
5. Traders are positioning ahead of critical central bank meetings (Fed, ECB, BoJ) and U.S. economic data releases this week.

Major Currency Pairs Gain as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Fed Policy Decision. - 28/10/2025


Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs traded higher on Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar weakened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Growing expectations of a rate cut, coupled with easing U.S.–China trade tensions, boosted investor sentiment and strengthened currencies such as the Euro, Pound, and New Zealand Dollar. The Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near its weekly low at 98.50, reflecting broad Greenback weakness.
Market Overview
Forex markets saw an upbeat tone across major pairs as traders positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated monetary policy announcement. Market consensus points to a 25-basis-point rate cut, reflecting the Fed’s intent to support subdued economic momentum amid moderate inflation and lingering trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–China trade deal continues to support risk assets. The Euro and Pound outperformed, while commodity-linked currencies like the Kiwi and Loonie gained modestly amid mixed commodity prices and cautious sentiment.
Technical Summary (Compact Table)

PairTrendRSIStochasticSupport LevelsResistance LevelsTrade Suggestion.

EUR/USDBullish49.71 (Buy Zone)53.41 (Neutral)S1: 1.1635 / S2: 1.1562R1: 1.1872 / R2: 1.1946Buy Limit: 1.1630 / TP: 1.1692 / SL: 1.1593
GBP/USDBearish44.02 (Neutral)35.43 (Sell Zone)S1: 1.3344 / S2: 1.3249R1: 1.3651 / R2: 1.3746Sell Limit: 1.3358 / TP: 1.3294 / SL: 1.3407
NZD/USDNeutral47.29 (Neutral)59.67 (Buy Zone)S1: 0.5755 / S2: 0.5696R1: 0.5948 / R2: 0.6008Sell Limit: 0.5777 / TP: 0.5755 / SL: 0.5793
USD/CADBullish58.43 (Buy Zone)41.61 (Neutral)S1: 1.3778 / S2: 1.3722R1: 1.3959 / R2: 1.4014Buy Limit: 1.3976 / TP: 1.4039 / SL: 1.3946

Analyst Commentary Per Asset

EUR/USD
The Euro continues to gain traction as the U.S. Dollar remains weak ahead of the Fed’s rate decision. Bullish momentum persists for the fifth consecutive session, with the pair testing near 1.1670. Expectations of a dovish Fed and steady Eurozone GDP data could keep the pair supported above 1.1600. Technically, buyers maintain control as long as prices stay above the 10-day EMA.
Outlook: Bullish

Preferred Strategy: Buy on dips toward 1.1630, targeting 1.1690–1.1720.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...142234.197.png
GBP/USD
The Pound extends modest gains, trading near 1.3350, as dovish Fed expectations weigh on the Dollar. However, persistent uncertainty regarding the Bank of England’s policy stance and upcoming U.K. budget announcements could limit upside momentum. All key moving averages remain aligned bearishly, suggesting continued downward pressure.
Outlook: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell near resistance at 1.3358, targeting 1.3290.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...142238.930.png
NZD/USD
The Kiwi advances to a three-week high as easing U.S.–China trade tensions boost risk appetite. Despite this, dovish commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand caps strong upside potential. The short-term tone remains balanced, with buyers and sellers vying for control around 0.5780.
Outlook: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Range trade between 0.5750–0.5800 with tight stops.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...142247.940.png
USD/CAD
The pair holds steady near 1.4000 amid renewed Fed rate-cut expectations. Although the Greenback weakens broadly, lower oil prices and potential tariff-related trade friction with Canada weigh on the Loonie. With strong technical support at 1.3950, the pair maintains a constructive bias in the near term.
Outlook: Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Buy near 1.3970 for a move toward 1.4030.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...142251.163.png
AI Q&A
Q1: Why is the U.S. Dollar weakening ahead of the Fed decision?
A1: Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points to support economic growth, prompting traders to price in lower yields and reduce Dollar exposure.
Q2: How is U.S.–China trade optimism affecting forex markets?
A2: It is boosting risk sentiment, supporting higher-yielding currencies like the Euro, Pound, and Kiwi while reducing demand for safe-haven assets.
Q3: What technical level is key for EUR/USD traders?
A3: The 1.1600 level acts as a critical support; a sustained move above 1.1670 could signal further upside toward 1.1750.
Q4: What is driving GBP/USD’s bearish technical setup?
A4: Persistent negative crossovers across short- and medium-term moving averages and a neutral RSI indicate potential downside continuation.
Q5: Could USD/CAD break below 1.3950 soon?
A5: Unlikely in the short term, as Fed dovishness is offset by weak oil prices and potential Canadian trade headwinds, supporting USD/CAD near-term strength.
Key Takeaways

1. Forex markets are trading higher amid growing expectations of a Fed rate cut.
2. EUR/USD maintains bullish bias as the Dollar weakens broadly.
3. GBP/USD remains under pressure despite Fed expectations.
4. NZD/USD trades sideways, supported by trade optimism.
5. USD/CAD holds firm, balancing Dollar weakness against lower oil prices.
6. Traders await key U.S. data releases — CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales — for near-term direction.

Daily Forex Analysis – USD Slips as Traders Await Trump–Xi Meeting & Fed Impact - 30/10/2025

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary

Major currency pairs are showing mixed movements on Thursday as the U.S. Dollar weakens ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting and shifting central bank policy signals. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs gain modestly, while USD/JPY surges to an eight-month high following dovish comments from the Bank of Japan, and USD/CAD dips as the Bank of Canada’s hawkish stance supports the Canadian Dollar. Traders are exercising caution as key data releases and global policy decisions shape near-term direction.

Market Overview
The forex market is witnessing cautious volatility as investors react to diverging monetary policy signals and upcoming economic data. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) retreats toward 99.00 after the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut, described as a “risk management” move with no immediate plans for additional easing. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates steady at 2%, and BoC’s policy tone suggests its easing cycle may be nearing an end.
Traders are closely monitoring developments from the Trump–Xi meeting, which concluded without a trade agreement but resulted in tariff reductions and renewed optimism over rare-earth exports. Across the board, sentiment remains cautious, with attention turning to today’s key economic releases — including Eurozone GDP, U.S. GDP, and ECB’s press conference.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)

PairMA Trend (10–50)RSIStochasticSentimentDirectionTrade Suggestion
EUR/USDAll Bearish Crossovers44.94 (Neutral)42.47 (Neutral)BearishSellSell @1.1633 → TP: 1.1576 / SL: 1.1668
GBP/USDAll Bearish Crossovers33.05 (Bearish)14.74 (Neutral)BearishSellSell @1.3261 → TP: 1.3114 / SL: 1.3374
USD/JPYAll Bullish Crossovers64.81 (Bullish)83.54 (Neutral)BullishBuyBuy @152.47 → TP: 154.73 / SL: 151.17
USD/CADMixed: Short Bearish, Long Bullish59.26 (Bullish)20.51 (Neutral)Neutral-BullishBuyBuy @1.3881 → TP: 1.4032 / SL: 1.3811
Daily Forex Analysis – USD Slips as Traders Await Trump–Xi Meeting & Fed Impact - 30/10/2025
Analyst Commentary per Asset
EUR/USD
The euro edges higher toward 1.1630 as the U.S. Dollar weakens following the Trump–Xi meeting. Investors reacted positively to tariff cuts and policy clarity, though ECB caution continues to limit upside momentum. Key resistance sits near 1.1870, while sustained trading below 1.1635 may confirm further downside.
Outlook: Bearish bias remains dominant unless the ECB signals a policy shift or Eurozone GDP beats expectations.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...140803.786.png
GBP/USD
Sterling reclaims 1.3200, supported by USD weakness and speculation around the Bank of England’s December meeting. However, fiscal concerns and weak domestic data continue to cap upside potential. With RSI in the sell zone and all moving averages aligned bearishly, short-term pressure remains intact.
Outlook: Bearish; potential downside continuation toward 1.3110 if BoE maintains a dovish stance.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...140807.810.png
USD/JPY
The yen weakens sharply after BoJ Governor Ueda’s dovish remarks and optimism over Japan’s fiscal plans. The pair breaks to an eight-month high, reinforced by strong bullish crossovers. Traders may look for opportunities above 152.00 as the breakout sustains momentum.
Outlook: Bullish continuation expected; a break above 154.00 could open the path toward 155.50.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...140813.776.png
USD/CAD
USD/CAD drifts lower amid a stronger Canadian Dollar, supported by the BoC’s hawkish tone despite rate cuts. The pair remains below the 1.3950 level but finds support from the Fed’s pause in quantitative tightening. A mixed technical setup points to consolidation before a potential rebound.
Outlook: Neutral to mildly bullish; recovery possible if U.S. GDP data beats expectations.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...140816.538.png
AI Q&A
Q1: Why is the U.S. Dollar weakening today?
A1: The Dollar is softening as markets digest the Fed’s dovish rate cut and await clarity from the Trump–Xi trade meeting, which reduced tariffs but failed to yield a formal deal.
Q2: Which currency pair shows the strongest bullish signal?
A2: The USD/JPY pair, supported by dovish BoJ commentary and a strong technical breakout, remains the most bullish.
Q3: What’s the short-term risk for EUR/USD?
A3: A disappointing Eurozone GDP or hawkish Fed commentary could push EUR/USD below 1.1600, confirming further downside pressure.
Q4: Could the BoE’s December decision impact GBP/USD?
A4: Yes. Markets expect a 25-bps cut; confirmation of this could weigh heavily on Sterling and extend losses toward 1.3100.
Q5: How might today’s data releases affect volatility?
A5: U.S. GDP, ECB’s rate decision, and Germany’s CPI will be key volatility drivers; stronger data could trigger broad USD strength later in the day.
Key Takeaways

1. USD weakens ahead of major central bank announcements and trade headlines.
2. EUR/USD and GBP/USD recover mildly but remain within bearish setups.
3. USD/JPY posts a strong bullish breakout amid dovish BoJ comments.
4. USD/CAD holds steady as BoC hints at nearing the end of its easing cycle.
5. Traders eye U.S. GDP, ECB policy decision, and BoJ commentary for near-term direction.

Daily Forex Analysis – Forex Markets Mixed as Dollar Weakens, Euro and Yen Hold Steady.

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs traded with mixed momentum on Friday as the US Dollar weakened amid growing concerns about the US labor market. The Euro and Pound held steady, supported by central bank commentary, while the Yen faced modest pressure due to soft domestic data. The Canadian Dollar remained underpinned by firm demand, with traders awaiting key employment releases later in the day.
Market Overview
The US Dollar came under renewed selling pressure following data showing a surge in job cuts across American companies. Signs of a cooling labor market have fueled expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December, weighing on the Greenback. Meanwhile, the Euro and Pound held firm despite cautious sentiment, while the Yen and Canadian Dollar traded in tight ranges ahead of economic updates. Overall, markets remain focused on monetary policy trajectories from the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)
Currency PairTrendRSIStochasticSentimentResistance (R1/R2)Support (S1/S2)Trade Suggestion
EUR/USDBearish40.79 (Neutral)25.97 (Sell)Bearish1.1711 / 1.17721.1514 / 1.1454Sell 1.1580 → TP 1.1466 / SL 1.1656
GBP/USDBearish36.37 (Neutral)21.37 (Neutral)Bearish1.3423 / 1.35241.3094 / 1.2993Sell 1.3179 → TP 1.3019 / SL 1.3317
USD/JPYBullish59.21 (Buy)77.74 (Neutral)Bullish154.66 / 156.51148.65 / 146.80Buy 152.86 → TP 154.45 / SL 152.06
USD/CADBullish71.21 (Buy)89.68 (Neutral)Bullish1.4066 / 1.41111.3919 / 1.3874Buy 1.4075 → TP 1.4209 / SL 1.4003

Analyst Commentary per Asset
EUR/USD – Supported by Weak U.S. Labor Data
The EUR/USD pair holds near 1.1540 as weak U.S. labor data continues to weigh on the Greenback. The Challenger Job Cuts report showed a significant rise in layoffs, prompting traders to increase bets on a December Fed rate cut. The Euro remains stable amid comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who signaled comfort with current interest rate levels. Technically, the pair faces resistance at 1.1711, while a break below 1.1514 could accelerate downside momentum.
Outlook: Bearish bias remains intact; rallies toward 1.1580 may attract selling pressure.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...135302.159.png
GBP/USD – Dovish BoE Outlook Weighs on the Pound
GBP/USD retreats toward 1.3100 following a dovish stance from the Bank of England. Although rates were left unchanged at 4%, the split vote revealed a growing bias toward rate cuts, adding pressure on the Pound. The pair remains sensitive to U.S. economic updates, with traders monitoring the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for further clues on Fed policy. Technically, the pair stays weak below 1.3230, and any bounce may face resistance around 1.3420.
Outlook: Bearish; downside potential toward 1.3019 remains open if U.S. Dollar sentiment stabilizes.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...135307.559.png
USD/JPY – Yen Softens as Japan’s Data Misses Expectations
The Japanese Yen slipped on Friday after weak consumption data and continued policy ambiguity from the Bank of Japan. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance adds to dovish expectations, but potential FX intervention speculation limits losses. The pair maintains a bullish bias above 152.80 with short-term resistance at 154.66.
Outlook: Bullish trend intact; further gains likely if risk appetite strengthens.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...135311.620.png
USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Stays Strong Ahead of Jobs Data
USD/CAD continues its uptrend near 1.4120, hovering close to six-month highs. The pair benefits from a firmer Greenback and mixed Canadian data, as the Ivey PMI signaled slower growth momentum. However, the outlook for the Canadian Dollar remains balanced ahead of key employment data. A strong jobs report could limit USD/CAD upside momentum.
Outlook: Bullish but cautious; watch for 1.4200 resistance as potential profit-taking zone.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...135314.852.png
Elsewhere in the Forex Market

1. AUD/USD: Up 0.16% to 0.6489, supported by risk sentiment recovery.
2. USD/CHF: Up 0.18% to 0.8076, as the Dollar steadies against the Franc.
3. EUR/GBP: Up 0.03% at 0.8791.
4. EUR/AUD: Down 0.26% to 1.7774.
5. AUD/NZD: Up 0.56% at 1.1563.
6. USD/CNY: Up 0.05% to 7.1220.

Key Economic Events & Data Releases Today

1. (CAD) Employment Change (Oct): Forecast –5.0K | Previous 60.4K (19:00 GMT)
2. (CAD) Unemployment Rate (Oct): Forecast 7.1% | Previous 7.1% (19:00 GMT)

AI Q&A Section
Q1: Why is the U.S. Dollar under pressure today?
A: Weak labor data and rising job cuts have increased expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, weighing on the Dollar.
Q2: What’s driving the Euro’s resilience?
A: The Euro remains stable as ECB officials emphasize comfort with current policy settings and improving inflation outlooks.
Q3: Why did GBP/USD drop despite earlier gains?
A: The Pound weakened following the BoE’s dovish stance, with several members favoring rate cuts amid slowing inflation.
Q4: Can the Yen strengthen in the near term?
A: Further gains are limited unless the BoJ signals policy tightening or Japan’s economic data improves.
Q5: What’s next for USD/CAD?
A: Traders will monitor Canadian jobs data for direction; stronger employment could cap the pair’s bullish run.
Key Takeaways

1. Dollar weakness driven by U.S. job cut data and dovish Fed expectations.
2. EUR/USD holds steady but remains vulnerable below 1.1600.
3. GBP/USD under pressure following BoE’s dovish tone.
4. USD/JPY maintains bullish momentum despite JPY intervention risks.
5. USD/CAD trades near six-month highs ahead of Canada’s labor market data.
6. Overall sentiment: Cautiously bearish for USD, with selective strength in commodity-linked currencies.

Forex Market Insights – Dollar Steadies After U.S. Shutdown Ends.

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary

Major currency pairs traded cautiously on Thursday after the official end of the record-breaking U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. Dollar (USD) steadied as traders reassessed Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, while investors awaited key data from the UK, China, and the Eurozone. The Euro and Swiss Franc held firm against the greenback, while the British Pound and New Zealand Dollar weakened on domestic policy uncertainty.
Market Overview

Markets are adjusting to the new fiscal landscape following President Trump’s approval of the funding bill that officially ended the 43-day U.S. government shutdown. The resolution has bolstered overall risk appetite, yet the U.S. Dollar remains under mixed pressure due to conflicting signals from Federal Reserve policymakers.
Recent labor market data painted a weaker picture of the U.S. economy, with ADP and Challenger reports both signaling increased job losses. However, hawkish comments from Fed officials have tempered expectations of a near-term rate cut, keeping traders cautious. In Europe, the Euro holds steady as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain policy rates, while the British Pound trades lower ahead of critical UK GDP data. Meanwhile, risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi remain under pressure due to weak domestic fundamentals and global uncertainty.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)

PairTrendRSISentimentKey Levels (Support / Resistance)Trade Suggestion

EUR/USDBullish51.38BuyS1: 1.1514 / R1: 1.1711Buy Limit 1.1590 → TP 1.1637 / SL 1.1566
GBP/USDBearish39.63SellS1: 1.3094 / R1: 1.3423Sell Limit 1.3171 → TP 1.3080 / SL 1.3236
NZD/USDBearish39.44SellS1: 0.5688 / R1: 0.5812Sell Limit 0.5691 → TP 0.5628 / SL 0.5729
USD/CHFBearish43.55NeutralS1: 0.7919 / R1: 0.8075Sell Limit 0.8001 → TP 0.7940 / SL 0.8034

Analyst Commentary per Asset

EUR/USD
EUR/USD remains steady near 1.1600 after six straight sessions of gains, as traders digest the U.S. government’s reopening and reassess rate expectations. Weaker U.S. employment data supports a mildly dovish bias, but hawkish Fed commentary keeps the greenback anchored. The Euro benefits from stability in ECB policy expectations, suggesting the pair could consolidate above 1.1550 before the next directional move.
Outlook: Mild bullish bias; buy on dips toward 1.1590.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...152728.242.png
GBP/USD
The Pound remains under pressure below 1.3150, weighed by concerns about a potential BoE rate cut in December. Investor focus is squarely on the UK’s Q3 GDP data, expected to confirm sluggish growth. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials provide further downside for the pair.
Outlook: Bearish; rallies toward 1.3170 may face resistance, favoring short positions.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...152735.647.png
NZD/USD
NZD/USD extends losses toward 0.5650 as the Kiwi faces renewed selling pressure. The currency remains vulnerable amid RBNZ’s aggressive rate cuts and weak domestic data. Meanwhile, the USD gains traction on optimism over fiscal stability and upcoming U.S. data releases.
Outlook: Bearish continuation; selling rallies remains favored below 0.5700.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...152741.736.png
USD/CHF
USD/CHF trades quietly around 0.8000, weighed by dovish Fed expectations and a firm Swiss Franc. The pair’s technical setup suggests limited upside potential unless U.S. yields recover. The SNB’s steady inflation outlook adds further strength to the CHF, keeping the pair biased lower.
Outlook: Bearish bias; potential drift toward 0.7940 support zone.
https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/w...152748.789.png
AI Q&A Section
Q1: What is driving cautious sentiment in forex markets today?
A: Traders are reassessing Fed rate expectations after mixed U.S. labor data and the official end of the government shutdown, creating uncertainty around future monetary policy.
Q2: Why is the Euro holding firm despite a stronger Dollar?
A: The Euro benefits from stable ECB policy guidance and lower inflation volatility across the Eurozone, which offsets mild USD strength.
Q3: What factors are pressuring the British Pound?
A: The Pound faces pressure from expectations of a BoE rate cut and concerns over weaker economic growth in Q3.
Q4: Why is the New Zealand Dollar underperforming?
A: The Kiwi is weighed down by recent RBNZ rate cuts, soft GDP growth, and rising unemployment, signaling economic weakness.
Q5: How does Fed policy uncertainty affect USD/CHF?
A: Dovish expectations limit the USD’s upside potential, while the stable SNB policy and firm Swiss data strengthen CHF demand.
Key Takeaways

1. EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias amid stable ECB outlook and soft U.S. data.
2. GBP/USD under pressure as UK growth data looms and BoE easing bets rise.
3. NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further downside amid weak Kiwi fundamentals.
4. USD/CHF consolidates near 0.8000 as dovish Fed sentiment offsets recovery attempts.
5. Overall sentiment: cautious and data-driven, with traders awaiting fresh macro catalysts from Europe and the UK.

Forex Market Insights – EUR/USD Steady, GBP/USD Slips and JPY Weakens in Friday Trade.

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs trade mixed on Friday as markets digest shifting central bank expectations and U.S. data uncertainty following the prolonged government shutdown. EUR/USD holds near two-week highs, GBP/USD weakens amid renewed UK fiscal concerns, USD/JPY remains near multi-month lows on BoJ hesitation, and AUD/USD edges higher, supported by firmer Chinese macro data and improved domestic fundamentals. The U.S. Dollar stays soft, limiting downside across risk-aligned currencies.

Market Overview
Forex markets remain range-bound yet directionally biased as shifting policy expectations shape sentiment across major pairs. The U.S. Dollar lingers near a two-week low as traders brace for delayed or missing U.S. economic data, placing greater weight on FOMC remarks for policy clarity. Eurozone GDP and Chinese economic releases influence broader FX flows, while UK fiscal concerns pressure GBP/USD ahead of the November budget. Meanwhile, expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike continue to fade, weighing heavily on the Yen. Commodity currencies find support from improved risk appetite and China’s latest economic prints.





Analyst Commentary per Asset
EUR/USD – Bullish Bias
EUR/USD holds near 1.1635 after Thursday’s rally, supported by ongoing Dollar weakness and diverging policy expectations between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Markets assign a roughly 50% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, while ECB is expected to remain on hold through next year—reinforcing relative EUR strength. A break above the 50-day SMA remains the key trigger for fresh bullish momentum. Traders now await Eurozone Q3 GDP and statements from FOMC officials for directional cues.
Trade Idea:
Limit Buy: 1.1603
Take Profit: 1.1668
Stop Loss: 1.1569


GBP/USD – Bearish Bias
GBP/USD drifts toward 1.3150 after the UK government dropped plans to raise income-tax thresholds, raising concerns about fiscal stability ahead of the November 26 budget. Weak UK data has reinforced expectations for a December Bank of England rate cut, amplifying downside pressure. However, Dollar softness limits deeper losses for now. Traders remain cautious as U.S. data disruptions could influence near-term Dollar movements.
Trade Idea:
Limit Sell: 1.3186
Take Profit: 1.3027
Stop Loss: 1.3259

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USD/JPY – Strong Bullish Bias
USD/JPY trades near a nine-month high as markets lower expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Comments from Prime Minister Takaichi and government officials reinforce the preference for continued low rates, while warnings from Japanese authorities hint at possible intervention if volatility increases. The USD’s softness prevents sharper upside, but the structural trend remains favorable for USD/JPY bulls.
Trade Idea:
Limit Buy: 153.56
Take Profit: 156.01
Stop Loss: 152.23

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

AUD/USD – Neutral to Bearish Bias
AUD/USD edges higher supported by Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production data and Australia’s strong labor market. However, mixed Chinese figures and concerns over the RBA’s restrictive policy stance keep upside limited. The pair trades cautiously as U.S. Dollar softness provides short-term support.
Trade Idea:
Limit Sell: 0.6556
Take Profit: 0.6497
Stop Loss: 0.6595

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

AI Q&A
Q1: Why is the US Dollar weakening despite the end of the government shutdown?
A: Uncertainty around missing economic data and doubts about the strength of U.S. growth have kept USD under pressure.
Q2: What key level must EUR/USD break to extend its rally?
A: EUR/USD must clear the 50-day SMA decisively for renewed bullish momentum.
Q3: Why is GBP/USD struggling even as the USD weakens?
A: UK fiscal credibility concerns and expectations of a December BoE rate cut weigh heavily on Sterling.
Q4: Is intervention likely in USD/JPY?
A: Japanese authorities have hinted at intervention if volatility increases, but immediate action seems unlikely unless sharp one-way moves accelerate.
Q5: What is the main risk for AUD/USD traders today?
A: Mixed Chinese data—strong consumer activity but weaker industrial performance—may cause intraday volatility.
Key Takeaways

1. USD remains weak due to uncertainty surrounding delayed U.S. macro data.
2. EUR/USD retains bullish momentum but needs a break above the 50-day SMA.
3. GBP/USD pressured by UK fiscal uncertainty and softer economic outlook.
4. USD/JPY supported by BoJ’s dovish stance, keeping the yen near multi-month lows.
5. AUD/USD lifted by Chinese data but overall trend remains mixed.
6. Markets await Eurozone GDP and key global releases for next directional moves.

Forex Analysis – Forex Market Drops as USD Strengthens Before Key Data.

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary

Major currency pairs are trading under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens on fading expectations of a December Fed rate cut. With traders pricing in only a 49% probability of easing—down sharply from last week—risk-sensitive currencies such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD continue to weaken. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains supported by Fed policy divergence and persistent uncertainty around the Bank of Japan’s tightening outlook. Market sentiment now hinges on upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls and UK–EU inflation data.

Market Overview

Currencies are moving cautiously as global markets shift their attention to key policy cues from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan. The USD remains the outperformer amid rising skepticism about near-term rate cuts, while the Euro and Pound face headwinds from weak economic momentum and data sensitivity ahead of inflation prints. The Australian Dollar is pressured by global risk aversion and soft equities, whereas the Japanese Yen continues to struggle as BoJ policy direction remains unclear despite verbal intervention risks. Traders await imminent US labor data and UK/EU CPI releases to reassess near-term policy trajectories.
Technical Summary (Compact Table)
(Based on provided technicals — update with live charts before publishing)



Analyst Commentary Per Asset
EUR/USD – Bearish Bias Persists Below 1.1600
EUR/USD remains weak, consolidating near 1.1580 as the USD strengthens on receding Fed rate-cut expectations. The pair is unable to reclaim the 1.1600 handle amid softer Eurozone outlook and cautious ECB sentiment. With markets awaiting Nonfarm Payrolls, downside risks persist unless a significant miss pulls rate-cut probabilities higher.
Trade Plan:

1. Limit Sell: 1.1611
2. TP: 1.1542
3. SL: 1.1655
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   

GBP/USD – Pound Softens Ahead of Critical UK CPI Data
GBP/USD trades near 1.3130, pressured by firm USD demand and rising expectations of a December BoE rate cut if inflation softens further. With UK CPI, PPI, and RPI due today, volatility is likely to spike. A dovish read could push GBP/USD toward key support near 1.3090.
Trade Plan:

1. Limit Sell: 1.3190
2. TP: 1.3083
3. SL: 1.3261
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   

AUD/USD – AUD Slips as Risk Sentiment Deteriorates
AUD/USD weakens following a global equity pullback tied to stretched AI valuations and risk-off flows. Despite steady wage growth and more balanced RBA policy tone, the AUD remains sensitive to global risk appetite. Support sits at 0.6465, and a failure to hold this region could invite further losses.
Trade Plan:

1. Limit Sell: 0.6503
2. TP: 0.6465
3. SL: 0.6525
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   

USD/JPY – Yen Remains Weak Amid BoJ Policy Ambiguity
USD/JPY trades near multi-month highs, supported by strong yield differentials and Fed–BoJ policy divergence. Intervention risks persist, but markets remain doubtful without a clear shift in BoJ stance. A sustained breakout above 154.80 opens the path toward 156.69.
Trade Plan:

1. Limit Buy: 154.80
2. TP: 156.69
3. SL: 153.70
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   

AI Q&A
Q1: Why is the USD strengthening even when economic data is mixed?
A: Markets focus on policy expectations. Recent Fed commentary suggests hesitation toward cutting rates, strengthening USD despite softer data.
Q2: What will move EUR/USD next?
A: The September US Nonfarm Payrolls report. A strong reading reduces rate-cut odds further → EUR/USD downside.
Q3: Can GBP/USD recover if UK CPI beats expectations?
A: Yes. Higher-than-expected CPI reduces BoE rate-cut probability, supporting GBP.
Q4: Why is AUD/USD so sensitive to equities?
A: AUD is a risk-linked currency tied to global commodity cycles and equity sentiment. Risk-off = AUD weakness.
Q5: Will Japan intervene to support the Yen soon?
A: Intervention is possible but unlikely without extreme volatility. A clearer BoJ policy shift is required for sustained Yen strength.
Key Takeaways

1. USD strengthens as December Fed rate-cut odds fall to 49%.
2. EUR/USD stays pressured below 1.1600 ahead of NFP.
3. GBP/USD traders await UK CPI for direction.
4. AUD/USD weakens on global equity sell-off and risk aversion.
5. USD/JPY remains strong but sensitive to intervention risks.
6. Major market drivers today: UK CPI, EU CPI, US labor data, FOMC minutes.

Daily Market Analysis - Capital Street FX

Forex Analysis – Forex Markets Cautious .as Dollar Strengthens Before NFP. - 20/11/2025

Headlines & Market Snapshot
Major FX pairs are trading cautiously on Thursday as the US Dollar strengthens ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Shifting central bank expectations—particularly from the Fed, BoE, RBNZ, and PBOC—are keeping risk sentiment fragile. EUR/USD continues to slide toward 1.1500, GBP/USD attempts a mild recovery, NZD/USD stabilizes above 0.5600, and USD/CAD holds firm as oil prices weaken.


Market Overview
The broader forex market remains defensive as traders brace for the delayed US NFP report, which is set to heavily influence rate-cut expectations for December. The Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near a five-month high, reflecting fading odds of Fed easing. Meanwhile, the Pound remains under pressure from rising BoE dovish expectations, the Kiwi struggles amid concerns of RBNZ cuts, and the Canadian Dollar weakens due to softer crude prices. Market volatility is expected to rise sharply once the NFP data is released.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)
PairRSITrend BiasKey SupportKey ResistanceTrade Signal
EUR/USD39.83 (Bearish)Downtrend1.1514 / 1.14541.1711 / 1.1772Sell below 1.1555
GBP/USD35.37 (Bearish)Downtrend1.3094 / 1.29931.3423 / 1.3524Sell below 1.3143
NZD/USD33.07 (Bearish)Downtrend0.5688 / 0.56500.5812 / 0.5850Sell below 0.5637
USD/CAD56.51 (Bullish)Uptrend1.3919 / 1.38741.4066 / 1.4111Buy above 1.4012

Analyst Commentary Per Asset

EUR/USD — Bearish Direction Continues Toward 1.1500
EUR/USD remains under heavy pressure as the Dollar strengthens further, driven by collapsing expectations for a December Fed rate cut. The pair trades near a two-week low, weighed down by hawkish FOMC minutes and cautious market sentiment ahead of NFP. The Euro receives no meaningful support from regional data, keeping downside momentum intact.
Trade Setup:
Limit Sell: 1.1555
Take Profit: 1.1484
Stop Loss: 1.1603




GBP/USD — Mild Uptick but Overall Bias Remains Bearish
The Pound is attempting a limited rebound after Wednesday’s sharp drop, driven by markets pricing an 85% probability of a December BoE rate cut. Softer UK CPI and weakening labor data have reinforced expectations of policy easing. Upcoming UK Retail Sales and PMI data may add further volatility.
Trade Setup:
Limit Sell: 1.3143
Take Profit: 1.2998
Stop Loss: 1.3250




NZD/USD — Holds Above 0.5600 After PBOC Maintains Rates
NZD/USD trades mildly higher near 0.5605, supported by steady PBOC policy. However, downside risks remain elevated as markets expect RBNZ rate cuts amid rising unemployment and slowing domestic demand. The upcoming US NFP report will determine whether the pair can sustain gains or revert lower.
Trade Setup:
Limit Sell: 0.5637
Take Profit: 0.5576
Stop Loss: 0.5680



USD/CAD — Firm Above 1.4050 as Oil Prices Drop
USD/CAD remains steady as markets await US employment data. Weaker crude prices—following reports of a possible US proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict—are weighing on CAD. Fed rate-cut expectations have sharply reduced, supporting the USD in the short term.
Trade Setup:
Limit Buy: 1.4012
Take Profit: 1.4147
Stop Loss: 1.3937




AI Q&A Section (5 Questions & Answers)
Q1: Why is the US Dollar strengthening ahead of NFP?
A: Traders expect NFP to provide clarity on Fed policy. With rate-cut expectations falling, capital is flowing into the Dollar.
Q2: What happens to EUR/USD if NFP beats expectations?
A: A strong NFP print would likely push EUR/USD below 1.1500 and deepen the bearish trend.
Q3: Why is the Pound under pressure despite today’s recovery?
A: Markets are heavily pricing a December BoE rate cut due to easing inflation and rising unemployment.
Q4: What could shift momentum in NZD/USD?
A: A weaker-than-expected NFP report could pull the USD lower and support a short-term Kiwi rebound.
Q5: How sensitive is USD/CAD to oil markets right now?
A: Very sensitive. Any declines in crude—Canada’s key export—add immediate bullish pressure to USD/CAD.

Key Takeaways

 

1. US Dollar strength remains the dominant theme as markets await NFP.
2. EUR/USD continues to slide, with bearish technicals aligning with macro pressure.
3. GBP/USD rebounds slightly but remains fundamentally bearish due to BoE rate-cut expectations.
4. NZD/USD trades cautiously as markets anticipate RBNZ easing.
5. USD/CAD is supported by weakening oil prices and reduced Fed easing bets.
6. Volatility expected to spike after the US employment report release.

Forex Weekly Outlook: USD Strength Pressures EUR, GBP & AUD.

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major forex pairs are trading cautiously this week as mixed U.S. economic data casts uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy direction. The U.S. Dollar strengthened broadly, supported by solid labor market figures and fading expectations of a December rate cut. Meanwhile, EUR/USD hovers near multi-week lows, GBP/USD extends losses ahead of the UK Autumn Budget, AUD/USD remains pressured by weaker commodity sentiment, and USD/JPY continues to track bullish momentum despite intervention risks. Markets now shift their attention to a heavy data docket from the U.S., Eurozone, UK, Australia, and Japan, keeping near-term volatility elevated.

Market Overview
FX markets remain in consolidation mode as traders digest a mix of U.S. data—including stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls, softer PMI readings, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy trajectory. Divergent domestic fundamentals drove varied performances across major currency pairs. The Dollar remained resilient as yield support persisted, while European and UK data offered little relief to their respective currencies. The week ahead brings a cluster of high-impact releases, including German GDP, UK Autumn Budget, U.S. PPI, Retail Sales, and Core PCE—likely shaping directional moves into December.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)
(Illustrative values based on your provided technicals — ready for live-data update before publishing.)
PairTrend BiasRSIStochasticKey Support LevelsKey Resistance LevelsTrade Setup

EUR/USDBearish38.78 (Sell Zone)30.38 (Sell)1.1514 / 1.14541.1711 / 1.1772Sell 1.1551 → TP 1.1468 → SL 1.1597
GBP/USDBearish39.31 (Neutral)31.55 (Sell)1.3094 / 1.29931.3423 / 1.3524Sell 1.3122 → TP 1.3060 → SL 1.3166
AUD/USDBearish40.01 (Neutral)14.83 (Neutral)0.6465 / 0.64210.6610 / 0.6654Sell 0.6476 → TP 0.6414 → SL 0.6519
USD/JPYBullish65.59 (Buy Zone)86.63 (Buy)148.65 / 146.80154.66 / 156.51Buy 155.78 → TP 158.04 → SL 154.48

Analyst Commentary Per Asset

EUR/USD – Outlook: Bearish Sentiment Prevails as Data Fails to Inspire
EUR/USD spent the week under pressure, retreating toward 1.1500 as U.S. data offered mixed signals but kept the Dollar broadly supported. Labor market updates, including a stronger NFP print of 119K, failed to trigger sustained volatility but reinforced a cautious environment. European data lacked momentum, and with Germany’s heavy calendar—including GDP, IFO, Retail Sales, and HICP—Eurozone fundamentals remain fragile. EUR/USD remains locked in a sell-biased structure unless the Fed softens its tone or European data surprises strongly to the upside.




GBP/USD – Outlook: Sterling Remains a Sell-on-Rallies Setup Ahead of UK Budget
GBP/USD resumed its downward trajectory as broad USD strength and UK fiscal concerns pressured the currency. Softer UK CPI, weak retail sales, and uncertainty around the Autumn Forecast Statement weighed on sentiment. Traders remain defensive, with the US Dollar favored ahead of high-impact U.S. data and Nvidia earnings. With markets reducing expectations of early Fed cuts and the UK facing fiscal constraints, GBP/USD continues to carry downside risk unless the upcoming Budget delivers unexpected fiscal support.



AUD/USD – Outlook: Aussie Weakens as Strong USD Caps Recovery Attempts
AUD/USD attempted gains early in the week on the back of improved domestic PMIs, but the recovery quickly faded as the U.S. Dollar regained strength. Weaker commodity sentiment—especially iron ore—also limited upside potential. Markets are now awaiting RBA meeting minutes and key U.S. data to gauge near-term direction. Unless the RBA adopts a hawkish stance, AUD/USD remains vulnerable to further declines driven by U.S. yield support.



USD/JPY – Outlook: Bullish Momentum Holds, but Intervention Risks Rising
USD/JPY saw volatile swings as Japanese officials issued warnings about excessive Yen weakness, yet intervention fears did little to alter the broader bullish trend. The pair remains supported by elevated U.S. yields, a strong Dollar, and delayed expectations for a BoJ rate hike. Japan’s stimulus package further pressured the Yen. While upside remains favored, traders must watch for potential intervention-triggered dips, particularly near multi-month highs.




AI Q&A
Q1: Why is the USD staying strong even with mixed data?
A: Because U.S. yields remain elevated and markets have sharply reduced expectations for a December Fed rate cut.
Q2: Is EUR/USD likely to break below 1.1450 soon?
A: Only if Eurozone data disappoints and the U.S. Dollar extends its yield-driven momentum—both plausible scenarios.
Q3: What could cause a rebound in GBP/USD?
A: A fiscally supportive UK Budget or significantly weaker U.S. data could trigger short-term Sterling recovery.
Q4: Is AUD/USD undervalued at current levels?
A: Fundamentally, AUD remains pressured by soft domestic demand and weaker commodity markets, so valuation may stay depressed.
Q5: Will Japan intervene in the FX market soon?
A: Intervention is possible if moves turn disorderly, but verbal warnings are the preferred first step.

Key Takeaways

 

1. The U.S. Dollar remains broadly supported as traders scale back Fed rate-cut expectations.
2. EUR/USD hovers near November lows, awaiting a heavy German data calendar.
3. GBP/USD remains pressured by UK fiscal concerns ahead of the Autumn Budget.
4. AUD/USD struggles to recover as stronger USD and weak commodities limit upside.
5. USD/JPY retains bullish momentum but faces rising intervention risks from Japanese authorities.
6. A high-impact global data week lies ahead, likely shaping end-of-month volatility across major pairs.

Forex Analysis – Major Forex Pairs Steady as Fed Cut Bets Drive Market Mood. - 28/11/2025.

Headlines & Market Snapshot
Major currency pairs are trading cautiously as shifting expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut continue to shape market sentiment. The US Dollar remains under pressure, supporting gains in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while USD/JPY holds in consolidation and AUD/USD trims gains despite strong domestic inflation data. Risk sentiment stays mixed ahead of global inflation releases and GDP prints.
Market Overview
FX markets remain sensitive to evolving interest rate expectations, with traders positioning for a potential December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The latest CME FedWatch data reflects an 87% probability of a 25 bps cut—up sharply from last week—placing downward pressure on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, political developments around the next Fed chair and strong inflation readings from the Eurozone, Japan, and Australia are adding layers of complexity to directional flows. EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue to benefit from USD softness, while USD/JPY trades within a narrowing range as fiscal concerns and intervention risks limit downside. AUD/USD sees two-way movement as strong domestic price data tempers dovish RBA expectations.
Technical Summary Table — Major Currency Pairs
Pair
RSI
Stochastic
MA Bias (10/20/50)
Sentiment
Direction
Key Levels (R1/S1)
EUR/USD
50.31 (Bullish)
60.67
Bullish / Bullish / Bearish
Bullish
Buy
R1: 1.1711 / S1: 1.1514
GBP/USD
52.32 (Bullish)
88.13
Bullish / Bullish / Bearish
Neutral
Buy
R1: 1.3423 / S1: 1.3094
USD/JPY
62.29 (Bullish)
66.56
Bullish / Bullish / Bullish
Bullish
Buy
R1: 154.66 / S1: 148.65
AUD/USD
53.47 (Bullish)
65.93
Bullish / Bullish / Bullish
Neutral
Sell
R1: 0.6610 / S1: 0.6465
Analyst Commentary Per Asset
EUR/USD — Outlook: Bullish
EUR/USD trades near 1.1590 after easing from a three-day rally. USD stabilisation is limiting intraday upside, but expectations for a December Fed rate cut—currently priced at 87%—continue to favor the Euro. ECB Minutes indicating no immediate need for further easing provide mild underlying support. With inflation trending toward target and economic conditions stabilising, EUR/USD maintains upward bias.
Trade Suggestion:
Limit Buy: 1.1565
Take Profit: 1.1613
Stop Loss: 1.1541


GBP/USD — Outlook: Buy Bias
GBP/USD trades near 1.3240, extending a seven-session winning streak. USD weakness amid rate-cut speculation supports the pair, while domestic market focus shifts to the UK’s newly released fiscal outlook. The larger-than-anticipated £22B fiscal buffer stabilised sentiment despite softer growth projections. Pound momentum remains constructive.
Trade Suggestion:
Limit Buy: 1.3191
Take Profit: 1.3328
Stop Loss: 1.3124


USD/JPY — Outlook: Bullish
USD/JPY trades in a consolidation band but retains bullish momentum due to rising JGB yields driven by Japan’s worsening fiscal profile. BoJ tightening expectations and potential intervention limit downside, while a softening USD caps upside. The pair remains supported above key moving averages, with a gradual upward bias intact.
Trade Suggestion:
Limit Buy: 155.12
Take Profit: 157.40
Stop Loss: 153.82


AUD/USD — Outlook: Neutral-to-Bearish
AUD/USD trims intraday gains despite a sixth day of overall advance. Stronger-than-expected inflation and rising private sector credit reinforce expectations of steady RBA policy, reducing rate-cut probabilities. USD softness provides support, but AUD bulls face resistance as RBA hike expectations remain uncertain.


AI Q&A
1. Why is the US Dollar losing momentum this week?
Because an 87% probability of a December Fed rate cut is priced in, reducing USD yield appeal and pressuring the currency.
2. Why is EUR/USD showing strength despite limited Eurozone growth?
Dovish Fed expectations outweigh Eurozone risks, improving relative yield flows toward the Euro.
3. Could USD/JPY see direct intervention from Japan soon?
Yes—if volatility spikes or USD/JPY approaches extreme highs, Japan may intervene to limit Yen depreciation.
4. Is GBP/USD supported by the UK Budget release?
Yes—the unexpectedly large £22B fiscal buffer stabilised sentiment and supported Sterling.
5. Why did AUD/USD fail to hold intraday gains?
Traders are reassessing the RBA outlook after strong inflation but remain cautious given soft domestic growth signals.
Key Takeaways

1. Markets are increasingly pricing in a December Fed rate cut, heavily influencing USD direction.
2. EUR/USD and GBP/USD maintain upward momentum due to broad US Dollar weakness.
3. USD/JPY remains supported but capped as fiscal concerns and intervention risks balance each other.
4. AUD/USD faces mixed signals as strong inflation meets cautious RBA guidance.
5. Short-term FX volatility will likely increase ahead of German inflation, Japanese PMI, and US consumer data.

Forex Traders on Alert: Dollar Slides While Majors Approach Technical Trigger Points.

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary

Major currency pairs start the week with a cautiously bullish tone as a softer US Dollar, shifting central bank expectations, and high-impact global data releases drive early market direction. EUR/USD regains upward momentum above 1.1600, GBP/USD holds firm on UK budget optimism, USD/JPY weakens amid BoJ hawkish signals, and AUD/USD retreats slightly after disappointing Chinese PMI data. Divergent monetary outlooks remain the central driver for forex flows.

Market Overview

Currency markets open the week with mixed but active sentiment as traders adjust positions ahead of key US ISM and PMI releases. The US Dollar remains under pressure as expectations for a December Fed rate cut strengthen, while regional fundamentals shape individual currency moves. EUR gains support from firm ECB outlook, GBP steadies amid UK fiscal updates, JPY strengthens on rising BoJ tightening bets, and AUD corrects lower after weak Chinese data but finds support from strong domestic inflation readings.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)
Major Currency Technical Overview
PairRSIStochasticTrend BiasSupport LevelsResistance LevelsTrade Suggestion

EUR/USD54.24 (Bullish)65.75 (Neutral)BullishS1: 1.1503 / S2: 1.1458R1: 1.1646 / R2: 1.1690Buy @ 1.1585 → TP 1.1633, SL 1.1563
GBP/USD53.95 (Bullish)83.69 (Neutral)Neutral–BullishS1: 1.3070 / S2: 1.3009R1: 1.3268 / R2: 1.3329Buy @ 1.3189 → TP 1.3286, SL 1.3145
USD/JPY54.54 (Bullish)54.39 (Neutral)Neutral–BearishS1: 153.67 / S2: 152.48R1: 157.55 / R2: 158.74Sell @ 155.98 → TP 154.50, SL 156.75
AUD/USD57.59 (Bullish)76.76 (Neutral)BullishS1: 0.6456 / S2: 0.6418R1: 0.6577 / R2: 0.6615Buy @ 0.6542 → TP 0.6566, SL 0.6531

Analyst Commentary Per Pair

EUR/USD — Bullish Tone Strengthens
EUR/USD resumes its ascent above 1.1600 as dovish Fed expectations pressure the USD. Markets are pricing in a December rate cut with confidence, keeping DXY near a two-week low. The euro gains further support from ECB stability signals, with policymakers unanimously backing steady rates and ruling out additional cuts in 2025. A decisive break above the 50-day SMA could extend the pair’s one-week uptrend. Traders now watch US ISM and Eurozone PMI for near-term direction.



GBP/USD — Supported by UK Fiscal Outlook
GBP/USD trades steady around 1.3230 after the UK Autumn Budget lifted near-term economic sentiment. Upgraded OBR growth projections for 2025–2027 help cushion downside risks. Meanwhile, Fed rate-cut expectations—currently priced at 87% for December—keep USD gains limited. Dovish remarks from Waller and Daly reinforce expectations of easing. The pair maintains a neutral-bullish bias heading into US PMI releases.



USD/JPY — JPY Strengthens on BoJ Hawkishness
The Yen extends its two-week high after BoJ Governor Ueda signals a potential rate hike, lifting Japanese yields to multi-year highs and narrowing the US–Japan rate differential. Meanwhile, USD attempts a mild rebound but remains weighed down by expectations of a December Fed cut. The stark policy divergence keeps the bias tilted in favor of JPY. Market focus now shifts to US ISM data for intraday direction.





AUD/USD — Pullback After Weak China PMI
AUD/USD eases below 0.6550 as weaker Chinese manufacturing data (PMI 49.9 vs 50.5 expected) weighs on sentiment. However, strong Australian inflation and RBA Governor Bullock’s rejection of rate-cut discussions provide underlying support. A softer USD continues to favor upside recovery, but momentum is temporarily capped by China-linked weakness. Traders watch US PMI and upcoming PCE inflation data later in the week.




AI Q&A — Top 5 Trader Questions
1. Will EUR/USD continue higher if US data comes in weak?
Yes—weak US PMI would reinforce Fed rate-cut bets and likely push EUR/USD toward 1.1650+.
2. What could push GBP/USD above 1.3300?
A combination of softer US data plus stronger-than-expected UK PMI or economic sentiment.
3. Why is USD/JPY biased to the downside despite bullish indicators?
BoJ’s hawkish stance and rising Japanese yields outweigh USD technical strength.
4. Is AUD/USD still bullish even after China’s PMI miss?
Yes—domestic inflation strength and a dovish Fed still favor upside, unless China data worsens further.
5. What is the biggest risk for forex markets this week?
A surprise upside in US PMI or inflation, which could reduce expectations for a December Fed cut.

Key Takeaways

 

1. USD remains broadly soft as markets increasingly price in a December Fed rate cut.
2. EUR/USD maintains bullish structure above 1.1600 with ECB stability supporting sentiment.
3. GBP/USD stays resilient on UK fiscal improvements and USD weakness.
4. USD/JPY remains pressured as BoJ tightening expectations boost the Yen.
5. AUD/USD corrects lower but stays bullish overall thanks to RBA signals and USD softness.
6. US ISM PMI and PCE inflation data will be the week’s primary volatility triggers.

Forex Analysis – Forex Markets Steady as Traders Await Key US PCE Data.
Headlines & Market Snapshot
Major currency pairs are extending their advance on Friday as traders shift to a cautious, wait-and-watch stance ahead of the highly anticipated US Core PCE inflation report. The US Dollar remains broadly offered as markets price in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, supporting gains in the Euro, Pound, Yen, and Aussie. Risk sentiment remains constructive, reinforcing USD weakness and favoring further upside in select major pairs.

Market Overview
FX markets are trading with a clear bullish tilt against the US Dollar, driven by dovish Fed expectations and improving global risk appetite. The Euro and Pound are holding steady near weekly highs, the Japanese Yen continues to gain strength on hawkish BoJ expectations, and the Australian Dollar extends an impressive multi-session rally backed by strong domestic data. With the US PCE Price Index set for release later today, traders remain cautious but positioned for potential USD softness if inflation aligns with expectations. Broader sentiment favors continued USD downside unless the PCE reading surprises to the upside.

Technical Summary Table (Compact)
Major FX Pairs – Key Technical Indicators
PairRSIStochTrendKey Levels (R1 / S1)Bias
EUR/USD59.50 (Bullish)87.37 (Buy Zone)Strong Uptrend1.1646 / 1.1502Buy
GBP/USD62.67 (Bullish)89.91 (Buy Zone)Strong Uptrend1.3268 / 1.3070Buy
USD/JPY48.24 (Neutral)20.80 (Sell Zone)Weak/Turning Lower157.55 / 153.67Sell
AUD/USD67.17 (Bullish)97.27 (Overbought Buy Zone)Strong Uptrend0.6578 / 0.6456Buy

Analyst Commentary by Asset

EUR/USD — Bullish Bias Holds as Traders Await US PCE
EUR/USD trades in the mid-1.1600s, supported by consistent buying interest and subdued USD momentum. Expectations of a Fed rate cut next week—priced at nearly 85%—keep the USD on the defensive. Meanwhile, the Euro is backed by confidence that the ECB has ended its easing cycle, with Lagarde reinforcing inflation stability near the 2% target. The pair’s breakout above the 100-day SMA strengthens the bullish setup.
Trade Setup:
Limit Buy: 1.1626
TP: 1.1681
SL: 1.1601




GBP/USD — Bullish but Capped by BoE Rate-Cut Expectations
GBP/USD holds near 1.3330, steady but cautious as traders await US Core PCE data. While Fed rate-cut expectations support the pair, the Pound’s upside is limited by soft UK economic conditions and a 90% probability of a December BoE rate cut. Technicals remain supportive above 1.3300, but momentum could stall if PCE surprises higher.
Trade Setup:
Limit Buy: 1.3272
TP: 1.3409
SL: 1.3203




USD/JPY — Yen Strength Persists Ahead of PCE
USD/JPY continues to slide toward multi-week lows as markets price in a potential BoJ rate hike. Rising JGB yields and hawkish comments from Governor Ueda keep the Yen supported despite weak household spending data. With risk sentiment cautious and the USD soft, the downside bias remains intact unless PCE disrupts expectations.
Trade Setup:
Limit Sell: 154.93
TP: 153.61
SL: 155.66






AUD/USD — Aussie Extends an 11-Day Rally
AUD/USD pushes toward 0.6620, driven by strong Australian household spending and renewed RBA hawkish expectations. Governor Michele Bullock’s warning on inflation has encouraged speculation of further tightening. With Fed easing expectations supporting risk assets broadly, AUD/USD remains the strongest performer among major FX pairs.
Trade Setup:
Limit Buy: 0.6598
TP: 0.6660
SL: 0.6562




AI Q&A — Top 5 Trader Questions
1Will the US PCE data change today’s USD trend?
If PCE matches expectations, USD weakness is likely to continue. A hotter reading could trigger a short-term rebound in the USD.
2EUR/USD positioned for a breakout above 1.1700?
Yes. Technical momentum and fundamentals favor continued upside, but confirmation requires a soft PCE print.
3Why is GBP/USD struggling despite USD weakness?
Expectations of faster BoE rate cuts are limiting Sterling’s upside relative to other majors.
4USD/JPY likely to break below 154.00?
Yes, if PCE is soft and BoJ continues signaling normalization, a break below 154.00 becomes likely.
5AUD/USD becoming overbought?
Momentum is stretched (Stoch > 97), but fundamentals support further upside unless risk sentiment reverses.

Key Takeaways

 

1. USD remains pressured as markets price in a high probability of a Fed rate cut next week.
2. EUR/USD and AUD/USD lead FX gains, supported by strong fundamentals and bullish technicals.
3. GBP/USD stays bullish but capped by BoE rate-cut expectations.
4. USD/JPY continues lower as Yen strength builds on hawkish BoJ sentiment.
5. All focus is now on the US Core PCE inflation report — a potential turning point for short-term USD direction.

Forex Weekly Outlook: Major Pairs Gain Ahead of Fed Decision.
Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs begin the week with cautious optimism as traders await the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy decision. Expectations of a dovish Fed continue weighing on the US Dollar, supporting bullish momentum across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD. With bond yields stabilizing and global sentiment improving, markets are preparing for a potentially pivotal week driven by economic data and central-bank guidance.
Market Overview
Currency markets are trading with a supportive tilt toward risk assets as the US Dollar softens ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December rate announcement. A 25 bps rate cut is fully priced in, while investors await updated economic projections and forward guidance to gauge the policy path into 2026.
The Euro and Pound maintain upward momentum as European and UK fundamentals hold steady, while the Yen stabilizes amid BoJ normalization expectations. The Australian Dollar benefits from upbeat risk sentiment and narrowing rate differentials. This week’s key drivers include the Fed decision, US labor data, inflation indicators, and global yield movements.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)
PairTrendRSIStochasticKey Levels (R1 / S1)DirectionTrade Suggestion
EUR/USDBullish57.79 (Buy Zone)85.22 (Buy)R1: 1.1646 / S1: 1.1502BuyBuy 1.1623 → TP 1.1682, SL 1.1595
GBP/USDBullish61.45 (Buy Zone)88.38 (Buy)R1: 1.3268 / S1: 1.3070BuyBuy 1.3274 → TP 1.3470, SL 1.3171
USD/JPYMixed-to-Bullish53.67 (Buy Zone)29.48 (Sell)R1: 157.55 / S1: 153.67BuyBuy 154.70 → TP 156.35, SL 153.98
AUD/USDStrong Bullish68.60 (Buy Zone)95.91 (Buy)R1: 0.6578 / S1: 0.6456BuyBuy 0.6611 → TP 0.6667, SL 0.6587

Analyst Commentary Per Asset
EUR/USD — Bullish Bias Ahead of Fed
EUR/USD trades near two-month highs after a strong rally powered by USD weakness. Traders anticipate a dovish Fed stance next week, with markets pricing in another 25 bps rate cut. Euro strength is supported by steady ECB policy and improving sentiment across Eurozone yields. A break above 1.1680 could open the path toward 1.1750 if the Fed signals deeper easing for 2026.




GBP/USD — Sterling Extends Gains on Fiscal Stability & USD Weakness
GBP/USD remains strong as the UK’s fiscal update boosted confidence without imposing heavy burdens on households. Upgraded GDP forecasts and broad USD selling helped push the pair above 1.3350. This week’s Fed meeting, along with UK monthly GDP data, will be key for Sterling’s next directional push.




USD/JPY — Consolidating Ahead of Fed; BoJ Speculation Supports JPY
USD/JPY is steady but lacks strong directional conviction. The pair remains sensitive to Fed expectations, with potential downside risk if the Fed signals more aggressive easing. Meanwhile, the Yen is supported by expectations of BoJ normalization in 2026. Short-term moves will hinge on US labor data and Powell’s guidance.




AUD/USD — Strong Uptrend Supported by Risk Appetite
AUD/USD holds firm near recent highs as global risk sentiment improves and the US Dollar weakens. The RBA’s cautious stance, coupled with resilient domestic data, supports AUD momentum. If the Fed maintains a dovish tone, the pair may target 0.6750–0.6800 in the coming sessions.




AI Q&A Section (5 Questions & Answers)
1. Why is the US Dollar weakening this week?
Because markets expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25 bps rate cut and potentially signal further easing into 2026.
2. Which currency pair looks the strongest technically?
AUD/USD, with strong bullish indicators, high RSI, and firm trend structure.
3. What is the biggest risk event this week?
The FOMC interest rate decision, projections, and Powell’s press conference on Thursday.
4. Is GBP/USD likely to extend gains?
Yes—if the Fed signals deeper easing and UK GDP data comes in stronger than expected.
5. Can USD/JPY drop below 154.00 again?
Yes, if the Fed delivers a dovish surprise or if BoJ signals earlier-than-expected policy tightening.

Key Takeaways

1. Markets are positioned cautiously ahead of the critical Fed decision.
2. USD weakness is driving bullish momentum across EUR, GBP, and AUD.
3. AUD/USD shows the strongest technical setup among major pairs.
4. USD/JPY remains highly sensitive to yield spreads and Fed commentary.
5. This week’s economic calendar is heavily packed with Fed, BoC, RBA, SNB, GDP, JOLTS, and CPI data that may trigger high volatility.

Forex Market Analysis: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/CAD · USD/CHF
Capital Street FX | Friday, March 6, 2026 | NFP Day + ECB Decision
DXY: ~97.85 | Fed Funds: 3.50–3.75% | ECB Rate: 2.00% | BoE Rate: 3.75%
Market Overview

Forex markets enter Friday, March 6, navigating two dominant and simultaneous forces: the Eurozone ECB rate decision during the European session, and the US Non-Farm Payrolls report at 13:30 GMT. Both are capable of moving EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/CHF significantly on their own. Together, they make this one of the highest-volatility sessions of the month.

The US Dollar remains structurally weak. Aggregate speculative net-short USD positioning stands at its most bearish extreme since March 2021 — a $22.8 billion short position. The Fed is on an easing path with two 25bp cuts priced for 2026, while the US fiscal deficit approaches 6% of GDP. At the same time, geopolitical risk from the Strait of Hormuz crisis — following US-Israel Operation Epic Fury — is providing short-term safe-haven support for the dollar, creating choppy, indecisive intraday price action ahead of the data.

The week macro backdrop is defined by active 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico (effective March 4), a 20% levy on China, and ongoing Hormuz shipping disruptions that have collapsed tanker transits from 24 to just 4 per day. These forces are directly shaping USD/CAD and USD/CHF price action this session.

EUR/USD — Cautiously Bullish | ECB Decision Day

EUR/USD is caught in a high-conviction tug-of-war. The macro structure remains medium-term bullish — the pair has been on a three-year uptrend since its September 2022 lows and confirmed bullish structure by defending the 200-day moving average near 1.1470 in late 2025. However, the daily chart printed a shooting star candlestick when the pair probed the 1.18 handle earlier this week — a textbook bearish exhaustion signal at resistance. The pair faded the rally and is now stabilising near 1.1725–1.1758.

The ECB holds rates at 2.00% with no cut expected. The outcome is entirely dependent on Lagarde's forward guidance. If the ECB signals hawkish comfort with current rates, EUR/USD could spike toward 1.1760–1.1800. If Lagarde introduces dovish language citing Middle East energy inflation risk, the pair could test the 1.1500 support zone. The base case is a non-event — leaving EUR/USD to trade purely on NFP data at 13:30 GMT.

The ECB meeting carries a 10% probability of a surprise cut, which would be a sharp EUR/USD negative — potentially an 80–120 pip move lower. Reduce position sizes through the European session.

Key Levels:
• Resistance 1: 1.1800 — shooting star high / weekly resistance
• Resistance 2: 1.2000 — major psychological level
• Support 1: 1.1725–1.1758 — current stabilisation zone
• Support 2: 1.1500 — ECB dovish scenario test level
• Invalidation: 1.1470 — 200-Day Moving Average

Trade Setup:
• Weak NFP (below 160K): Buy toward 1.1550–1.1600 | Target: 1.1750–1.1800 | Stop: Close below 1.1470
• Strong NFP (above 220K): Sell bounce to 1.1800 | Watch 1.1500 for buy-dip | Stop: Close below 1.1450

GBP/USD — Range-Bound | Low Conviction Ahead of NFP

GBP/USD pulled back from a 42-day high above 1.38 earlier this week. The pair retains bullish structural integrity provided 1.3641 holds on a daily close, but near-term momentum has stalled. The weekly chart printed a bearish engulfing candle — a classic near-term caution signal.

The pair is trading below the 20-day SMA (1.3620) and is now testing the 50-day SMA (1.3540). A daily close below the 50-day SMA would represent significant technical deterioration. RSI at 42 shows bearish bias with no oversold bounce signal yet. ADX is below 20 — no strong trend conviction. Range-fade strategy is preferred.

Fundamentally, the Bank of England holds at 3.75% on a razor-thin vote, with markets now pricing a rate cut in April or May 2026 — earlier than consensus a month ago. UK CPI stands at 3.0% and the labour market is at its worst level in four years. USD weakness is providing indirect GBP support but BoE easing expectations are capping upside.

Key Levels:
• Resistance 1: 1.2700 — range ceiling / weekly target
• Resistance 2: 1.2750 — secondary resistance
• Support 1: 1.2580 — 200-DMA / 50-SMA cluster (key buy zone)
• Support 2: 1.2560 — structural invalidation for range trade
• Invalidation: 1.3641 — daily close below breaks the bullish structure entirely

Trade Setup:
• Buy: 1.2560–1.2580 | Target: 1.2700–1.2750 | Stop: Daily close below 1.2540
• Sell: Rejection at 1.2700–1.2750 | Target: 1.2580 | Stop: Daily close above 1.2780
• Strong NFP: Watch for break below 1.2580 | Target: 1.2540

USD/CAD — Bearish Bias | Oil vs Tariff Tug-of-War

USD/CAD is caught between opposing fundamental forces. The Hormuz crisis sent WTI crude surging 9–13% at the Monday open, directly supporting the Canadian dollar as a major oil-exporting nation. At the same time, active 25% US tariffs on Canada (effective March 4) are a structural headwind for CAD, directly hitting export revenues. The oil shock is currently the dominant force, keeping USD/CAD pressured near 1.3700.

Oil direction is the master variable for this pair today. In extreme risk-off environments, USD safe-haven demand can temporarily override the oil-CAD correlation, creating short-term distortions. Active traders must monitor both crude prices and the DXY simultaneously. The sell-on-rally approach offers superior risk-to-reward versus chasing breakouts after the pair's significant moves this week.

USD/CAD experienced a whipsaw earlier in the week as the oil-CAD rivalry intensified. The pair is trading near the 1.3700 balance zone. Selling rallies toward the upper range boundary remains the preferred strategy while crude stays elevated.

Key Levels:
• Resistance 1: 1.3750 — tariff risk premium / sell zone
• Resistance 2: 1.3800 — strong sell zone / upper boundary
• Support 1: 1.3600 — near-term floor
• Support 2: 1.3550 — extended bearish target if oil holds high
• Invalidation: Daily close above 1.3850

Trade Setup:
• Sell rallies: Entry 1.3750–1.3800 | Target: 1.3550–1.3600 | Stop: Close above 1.3850
• Weak NFP: USD/CAD drops toward 1.3550–1.3600
• Strong NFP: USD/CAD bounces to 1.3750 — sell opportunity
• Watch WTI crude as lead indicator — oil rising confirms CAD strength

USD/CHF — Bearish Bias | Safe-Haven CHF Flows Active

USD/CHF is trading near 0.7950, recovering modestly from recent session lows as the US dollar steadies ahead of NFP. The Swiss franc is a classic geopolitical safe-haven. The Hormuz crisis is actively driving defensive flows into CHF alongside gold — both are moving in tandem, confirming genuine safe-haven demand rather than isolated positioning.

The DXY below the 98.68 pivot keeps sustained USD/CHF recovery attempts structurally capped. The pair faces a double headwind: a weak USD and a demand-driven CHF. CFTC data shows asset managers near record net-short the Swiss franc — a contrarian risk that could trigger a sharp CHF unwind if the Hormuz crisis resolves diplomatically. Watch for Iran-related headlines as a binary risk throughout the session.

Gold surging toward the $5,270–$5,413 range confirms the safe-haven demand environment. Gold and CHF are highly correlated in geopolitical shock environments. Use XAU/USD as a lead indicator for CHF direction — gold rising confirms the CHF bid; gold falling signals risk of CHF unwind.

Market participants remain cautious ahead of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data, which could provide additional short-term USD direction after the main NFP event.

Key Levels:
• Resistance 1: 0.8000 — major psychological resistance / strong sell zone
• Resistance 2: 0.8050 — secondary resistance
• Support 1: 0.7900 — near-term floor
• Support 2: 0.7850 — extended bearish target
• Invalidation: Daily close above 0.8100

Trade Setup:
• Sell rallies: Entry toward 0.8000 | Target: 0.7850–0.7900 | Stop: Close above 0.8100
• Weak NFP: USD/CHF drops toward 0.7850–0.7900
• Strong NFP: USD/CHF bounces to 0.8000 — sell the level
• Iran diplomacy headline: Exit CHF longs immediately — CHF safe-haven unwind risk

NFP Scenario Guide — 13:30 GMT

NFP Result
USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CHF
Below 160K (Weak)
Sells
Rally → 1.1750+
Rally → 1.2700+
Drop → 1.3550
Drop → 0.7850
160K–200K (In-Line)
Neutral
Range 1.15–1.18
Range 1.258–1.27
Range 1.36–1.38
Range 0.79–0.80
Above 220K (Strong)
Rallies
Test 1.1500 S
Test 1.2580 S
Bounce → 1.3800
Bounce → 0.8000

Note: Always reduce to half size or go flat in the 30 minutes before NFP. The initial spike is rarely the real move. Wait for the first 5-minute candle to close before committing to a direction.

Q&A

Q1: Why is the US Dollar structurally weak heading into NFP?
Aggregate net-short USD positioning stands at $22.8 billion — the most bearish extreme since March 2021. The Fed is on an easing path with two 25bp cuts priced for 2026. US Q4 2025 GDP slowed to 1.4% annualised. The fiscal deficit is approaching 6% of GDP. These are all long-term USD headwinds.

Q2: Why is USD/CAD not simply falling with a weak USD?
Active 25% US tariffs on Canada (effective March 4) are directly weighing on the Canadian dollar by hitting export revenues. The oil surge from the Hormuz crisis is currently offsetting this, but the tariff headwind will compound over time. The pair is caught between two opposing forces.

Q3: What is driving the Swiss franc higher?
The Hormuz crisis is triggering safe-haven flows into CHF and gold simultaneously. The DXY below 98.68 reinforces CHF strength. CFTC data shows asset managers near record net-short CHF — meaning they are positioned for a weaker franc, which makes any rally sharper as shorts are forced to cover.

Q4: What happens to EUR/USD if the ECB surprises with a cut?
A surprise ECB cut carries a 10% probability but would trigger an 80–120 pip decline in EUR/USD. The pair would rapidly test the 1.1500 support zone. This is why position sizes should be reduced through the European session before the decision is announced.

Q5: Which pair has the cleanest setup today?
USD/CHF offers the cleanest risk-reward setup: sell rallies toward 0.8000 with a defined stop above 0.8100 while geopolitical risk remains elevated. The double headwind of a weak USD and safe-haven CHF demand creates a consistent sell-on-strength environment.

Key Takeaways

• ECB rate decision (European session) and US NFP (13:30 GMT) are both capable of significant moves — reduce position sizes until both events pass.
• EUR/USD three-year uptrend is intact but a shooting star at 1.18 signals caution. Dips toward 1.1500–1.1600 remain buying opportunities within the broader trend.
• GBP/USD is range-bound with ADX below 20. Range-fade strategy preferred. Buy 1.2580, sell 1.2700.
• USD/CAD is caught between oil-supported CAD and tariff-weakened CAD. Sell rallies toward 1.3750–1.3800 while crude stays elevated.
• USD/CHF is the cleanest sell-on-strength trade while the Hormuz crisis is active. Sell toward 0.8000, use gold as lead indicator.
• Do not chase moves into NFP. Wait for the first 5-minute candle close after 13:30 GMT before taking any position.

Risk Disclaimer
This report is produced by Capital Street FX for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade any financial instrument. Forex and CFD trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Leverage can magnify both profits and losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always verify prices with your broker before executing trades. Capital Street FX is regulated by FSC Mauritius (C112010690) and FSA Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (22064-IBC-2014).