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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #11,141
  • Aug 18, 2007 9:40pm Aug 18, 2007 9:40pm
Quoting VishalJ
Am I the only one here who thinks that GJ will still go down? (after a temporary upswing) I don't think the basic subprime issue has been solved by a cut in the discount rates - this just soothes the pain a bit, but the underlying pathology remains.
No, you aren't the only one. The market is very touchy right now and what the feds did on Friday was just a band-aid on a gaping wound. If we get any more bad economic news this week, I think we can easily see another strong reaction to the downside.

And then of course Markam will go back to polishing his gold and guns, though they are probably pretty well polished after this week.
  • #11,142
  • Aug 18, 2007 9:47pm Aug 18, 2007 9:47pm
Quoting VishalJ
Am I the only one here who thinks that GJ will still go down? (after a temporary upswing) I don't think the basic subprime issue has been solved by a cut in the discount rates - this just soothes the pain a bit, but the underlying pathology remains.
It will. Try to find one piece of good economic news right now.

The current financial crisis isn't even my big concern. My biggest concern right now is Hurricane Dean. The world is currently using about 2 million barrels/day more oil than it is producing. We are much worse shape for a major hit in the gulf than we were 2 years ago. If a significant portion of american and/or mexican oil production capability is damaged, or worse still, we get a direct hit on Houston, $100/barrel will be the minimum price that oil goes to. The US economy (and stock market) will just shrivel up and die.
  • #11,143
  • Aug 18, 2007 9:48pm Aug 18, 2007 9:48pm
Quoting brucehvn
No, you aren't the only one. The market is very touchy right now and what the feds did on Friday was just a band-aid on a gaping wound. If we get any more bad economic news this week, I think we can easily see another strong reaction to the downside.

And then of course Markam will go back to polishing his gold and guns, though they are probably pretty well polished after this week.
  • #11,144
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:00pm Aug 18, 2007 10:00pm
Quoting markam
It will. Try to find one piece of good economic news right now.

The current financial crisis isn't even my big concern. My biggest concern right now is Hurricane Dean. The world is currently using about 2 million barrels/day more oil than it is producing. We are much worse shape for a major hit in the gulf than we were 2 years ago. If a significant portion of american and/or mexican oil production capability is damaged, or worse still, we get a direct hit on Houston, $100/barrel will be the minimum price that oil goes to. The US economy (and stock market) will just shrivel up and die.

Then finally that would solve the immigration problem....
  • #11,145
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:06pm Aug 18, 2007 10:06pm
Looking more likely right now that Dean will be a bit south of here... hope so, all that evacuating stuff last time was a real drag !!! But just saying the H word makes gas prices go up... I suspect they will start up tomorrow or the next day...

Might make for some good SHORT trades on USD/CAD
  • #11,146
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:42pm Aug 18, 2007 10:42pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Looking more likely right now that Dean will be a bit south of here... hope so, all that evacuating stuff last time was a real drag !!! But just saying the H word makes gas prices go up... I suspect they will start up tomorrow or the next day...

Might make for some good SHORT trades on USD/CAD

If that goes (oil price up), it will add more fuel to this pair to shoot up even faster http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
I have mentioned earlier in my post, this pair is inversely related with usd/cad.
  • #11,147
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:57pm Aug 18, 2007 10:57pm
guys forget the usd/cad

it is the cad/jpy which is largely related to oil price movement

". In fact, over the past two years, CAD/JPY has had an 85% positive correlation with oil prices"

read this:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...Currencies.asp

and taking the subprime mess too in addition to oil--this is definately the pair (cad/jpy)to make some $$$$
  • #11,148
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:59pm Aug 18, 2007 10:59pm
An Attractive Oil Play: CAD/JPY
Looking at this from a net oil exporter/importer perspective, the currency pair that tops the list of currencies to trade to express a view on oil prices is the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. In fact, over the past two years, CAD/JPY has had an 85% positive correlation with oil prices. As we can see in Figure 2 below, more often than not, oil prices tend to be the leading indicator (as with USD/CAD) for CAD/JPY price action with a noticeable delay. As oil prices continued to rally, CAD/JPY easily broke the $100 level to hit a high of $105 before reversing. The "Oil vs CAD/JPY" chart also clearly shows the delayed reversal in CAD/JPY - which would have been a perfect trading opportunity.


http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articl...odities_2r.gif
Figure 2 - A look at the correlation between the price of oil and the price action in the CAD/JPY from December 2002 to September 2005
  • #11,149
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:00pm Aug 18, 2007 11:00pm
To the questions:

Whats responsible for the massive buys on all the jpy pairs across the board?

Why did the JPY strengthen and all of a sudden a rush to the exit?


HalifaxCB gives an indepth explanation:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post1545172

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post1545872
  • #11,150
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:01pm Aug 18, 2007 11:01pm
these are the 2 sites im always chkin on crude oil prices

http://321energy.com/

and

http://www.igindex.co.uk/

for live prices
  • #11,151
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:05pm Aug 18, 2007 11:05pm
THINK OIL PRICES ARE HEADED TO $100?
KEEP YOUR EYES ON CAD/JPY

very interesting read:

http://www.fxcm.com/oil-prices-vs-ca...01d+728*90+ros

i hope thats enough info for u guys
  • #11,152
  • Aug 19, 2007 2:26am Aug 19, 2007 2:26am
keeping uptodate with the carrytrade unwinding situation:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/...yen.php?page=1
  • #11,153
  • Aug 19, 2007 2:38am Aug 19, 2007 2:38am
Thankyou Hakuna ..excellent information very much appreciated as all your posts..very much looking forward to Monday and wish all good pips(luck)
  • #11,154
  • Edited 7:58am Aug 19, 2007 7:18am | Edited 7:58am
WOW.. I'm very excited about the new MT4 system. I don't have to rely on the unstable VT charts anymore. A big thank you goes to QUE and also creztor & emda . here's a screen shot of my FXDD MT4...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: que.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #11,155
  • Aug 19, 2007 7:29am Aug 19, 2007 7:29am
so many charts??

How do you manage to see all of them at one glance?

I'm still trying to mess around with all these in the MT4 too though i use another platform for trading.

Quoting auslanco
WOW.. I'm very excited about the new MT4 system. I don't have to rely on the unstable VT charts anymore. A big thank you goes to QUE and also creztor & emda . here's a screen shot of my FXDD MT4...
  • #11,156
  • Aug 19, 2007 7:35am Aug 19, 2007 7:35am
Hi guys is anyone very good on cable? i need some one to help solve a problem on my live acccount b/4 i finally runs out of money. plz. i need help for God sake. martins....
  • #11,157
  • Aug 19, 2007 7:56am Aug 19, 2007 7:56am
Quoting intelmaster
so many charts??

How do you manage to see all of them at one glance?

I'm still trying to mess around with all these in the MT4 too though i use another platform for trading.

The main indicators for this strategy are

QQE/SI
TFT/Gann hilow
5 SMA

I use the other indicators as additional supporting indicators.
  • #11,158
  • Aug 19, 2007 8:01am Aug 19, 2007 8:01am
Do you require the momentum / ADX to be at a certain level before u do the trade? Or just focus on the QQE, HiLo & SMA?

I did view the other thread to see how you get in / out of the trade.. but how do you use the momentum & adx?

Quoting auslanco
The main indicators for this strategy are

QQE/SI
TFT/Gann hilow
5 SMA

I use the other indicators as additional supporting indicators.
  • #11,159
  • Aug 19, 2007 8:25am Aug 19, 2007 8:25am
Quoting intelmaster
Do you require the momentum / ADX to be at a certain level before u do the trade? Or just focus on the QQE, HiLo & SMA?

I did view the other thread to see how you get in / out of the trade.. but how do you use the momentum & adx?
Momentum:
I use the momentum indicator to catch the retracements after a big sudden price fall or rise. This indicator is accurate only on trending markets with high volumes. this is a very tricky indicator. I started using this indicator after studying it for almost 1 year on my demo account. Therefor it's not recommended for newbies to catch the retracement using this indicator as this could kill your account since you are going against the trend. You can Find more info on how to use the momentum indicator on the other GBP/JPY analysis thread. Once you learn & confident on this indicator, It can be very useful to maximize your profits. For the last week 40% (over 1000 pips) of my profits came from this indicator.

ADX: This is a additional indicator I use to confirm the trend .
  • #11,160
  • Aug 19, 2007 8:32am Aug 19, 2007 8:32am
Quoting mcmartins
Hi guys is anyone very good on cable? i need some one to help solve a problem on my live acccount b/4 i finally runs out of money. plz. i need help for God sake. martins....
No one here cannot be responsible for your account. However if you give some details on your current position with your account.. we may be able to give you some suggestions.
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