Morning Briefing

31 Oct 25. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST

Good Morning!

The tentative tariffs truce between US-China & BOJ’s dovish stance supported the strength in Dollar. The Dollar Index can now rise towards 100-101 on a sustained move above 99.50. While Euro remains vulnerable to fall towards 1.15-1.14 while it trades below 1.1650. EURINR continues to trade within 103-102 region. EURJPY & USDJPY have risen as anticipated and now whether the resistance near 179-180 & 154.50 hold or not will have to be seen. USDCNY has rebounded from 7.0961 and if sustained, can test the resistance near 7.12-7.125 region. The Aussie can test the support near 0.6520 or even 0.645 if the fall extends further. The Pound needs to bounce from the support near 1.3140. Else, a breach below 1.3140 can drag it towards 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR had risen above 88.50 and it can test the resistance near 88.85 region before a pullback towards 88 occurs thereafter.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. A break above their immediate resistance can take them higher straight away. Else, one more leg of fall is possible before a bullish reversal happens. The German Yields have inched up. They have limited room on the upside. Resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag them lower again. The 10Yr GoI has made a bullish breakout of its range. That turns the outlook bullish to see more rise from here.

Most major indices except Nikkei have dipped and could test respective support levels before rebounding. The Dow, Dax, Nifty and Shanghai could test 47000-46500, 24000, 25800/25600 and 3900 before a possible rebound is seen. While the Nikkei has resumed it's upward rally and could soon surpass 52000 to target a fresh high of 54000 in the medium term.

Brent and WTI remain weak below $66 and $62 respectively, with scope for further declines towards $63 and $59. Gold and Silver, despite minor rebounds, stay vulnerable below $4100 and $50, suggesting potential drops towards $3850-3800 and $46-44. Copper continues to trade within a tight $5.20-5.00 range after failing to sustain gains above $5.20, while Natural Gas has turned bullish, rising sharply on colder US weather forecasts and could extend higher towards $4.15-4.20 in the near term.

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03 Nov 25. 0829 IST or 0259 GMT or 2159 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can head toward 100-101 if the rise sustains above 99.50-99.0. While Euro remain vulnerable to fall towards 1.15-1.14 while it trades below 1.1650. EURINR continues to trade within 103-102 region. EURJPY & USDJPY have immediate support below current levels. Need to see whether the support hold and rebound occurs or the fall gets extended further. USDCNY looks bearish towards 7.075 while it trades below 7.125. The Aussie can test the support near 0.6520 or even 0.645 if the fall extends further. The Pound needs to bounce from the support near 1.3140. Else, a breach below 1.3140 can drag it towards 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR can extend the rise towards 89.00-89.30 on a break past 88.80 before eventually coming down.

The US Treasury yields remain higher. The yields have to breach their immediate resistance to rise further from here itself. Else one more leg of fall will still be possible before a reversal happens. The German yields remain higher and stable. They have room to rise to test their resistance and then reverse lower again. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. Failure to rise back immediately can take it further lower.

The Dow and DAX have closed on a positive note last week but both indices will have to remain above 47500 and 23900 respectively to hold the upmove intact from here else can have scope to decline to 47000-46500 and 23800 respectively. Nikkei has surged well above 52000 and could be headed towards 53000-54000 soon. Nifty has dipped below the crucial support at 25800. Unless an immediate bounce is seen, Nifty can continue its fall to 25600/25400 soon. Shanghai needs to hold above 3900 to trade within 3900-4000. A brek below 3900, if seen can take it lower towards 3850-3800.

Crude prices have rebounded slightly, supported by geopolitical tensions, but remain weak below $66 (Brent) and $62 (WTI) with risks of further decline. Gold and Silver extended their corrections, staying bearish below $4100 and $50 respectively. Copper remains range-bound between $5.20-$5.00. Natural Gas continues to strengthen, targeting $4.20 in the near term.

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04 Nov 25. 0818 IST or 0248 GMT or 2148 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index & Euro can move towards 101 & 1.14 respectively. EURINR continues to trade within 103-102 region. EURJPY is stuck between 179-177 region. The USDJPY can extend the ongoing rise to 156 or even 158 on a confirmed rise past 155. Immediate support at 154. USDCNY is holding the 7.10-7.15 range quite well for now. The Aussie can fall within its 0.660-0.645 range. The Pound has dipped below 1.3140 and failing to see an immediate bounce from current levels can drag it toward 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR need to see a break above 88.85 to rise towards 89.00-89.30.

The US Treasury yields have risen above their intermediate resistance. That opens the door to see more rise from here itself without seeing another leg of fall. The German yields are going up as expected to test their resistance. They can reverse lower and fall back after testing the resistance. The 10Yr GoI failed to sustain the intraday rise yesterday. That keeps the chances alive of seeing a dip in the coming days.

The Dow closed slightly on a negative note while DAX moved up. The Dow needs to break past 47500 to avoid a dip to 47000-46000 while the Dax needs to break above 24250-24300 to rise further towards 24600-24800. Nifty has also bounced well yesterday and if it breaks above 25800 today, it can rally towards 26000 or higher soon. Nikkei continues its uptrend targeting 53000-54000. Shanghai trades flat. It is likely to trade within the 3900-4000 region for the near term.

Crude prices continue to weaken as expected. Gold is holding steady near $4000 and may remain range-bound between $3900-4100 until a clear breakout occurs. Silver continues its slide with potential to test $46-44 soon. Copper stays confined within $5.20-5.00, showing no decisive move yet. Natural Gas, however, has surged sharply on expectations of a colder US winter and could rise further towards $4.40-4.50 in the near term.

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06 Nov 25. 0817 IST or 0247 GMT or 2147 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index and Euro can test targets of 101 and 1.140–1.135 respectively. EURINR appears bearish toward 101.50–101.00 while trading below 102.50. EURJPY and USDJPY have scope to rise towards 178-180 & 154-155 in the near term. USDCNY can continue to trade within 7.10-7.15 region. The Aussie is maintaining the 0.645–0.660 range. The Pound has dipped below 1.3140 and if sustained, could fall toward 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR remained closed yesterday on the account of Guru Nanak Jayanti.

The US Treasury yields are going up in line with our expectation. The yields can rise more from here to test their resistance after which a corrective dip is possible. The German Yields sustain higher. There is limited room on the upside. Resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag the yields lower eventually. The 10Yr GoI has bounced well from its low on Tuesday. But while below its immediate resistance, there are chances to see a dip again.

The Dow and Dax have risen in the latest session but could have room for a test of 46500 and 23500 before moving up towards 48000 and 24500 respectively. Nifty fell as expected. It can test support at 25400 before rising towards 25800 gradually. Nikkei saw profit taking in the last two sessions but has risen today. While above 48000, Nikkei can retest 52000-54000 in the coming weeks. Shanghai trades slightly in the positive. It is likely to trade within the 3900-4000 region for the near term.

Crude prices fell sharply as Brent dropped to $63.44 and WTI to $59.62 after higher EIA inventories, keeping the outlook weak towards $63-62 and $59-58. Gold rebounded from $3935.70 and may stay within $3900-4100, while Silver’s bounce to $48 needs a break above for $50-52, else it risks for a fall towards $45-44. Copper held support at $4.88 and could rise to $5.10-5.20 within a $5.20-4.90 range. Natural Gas steadied near $4.20 and may head towards $4.40-4.50 while above $4.00.

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07 Nov 25. 0849 IST or 0319 GMT or 2219 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index had slightly inched lower but the target of 101 remains intact while the support at 99.50 holds. Euro & EURINR looks bearish toward 1.140-1.135 & 101.50-101.00 respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY have scope to rise toward 178-180 & 154-155 if both the pair stays above 176 & 153 respectively. USDCNY continues to trade within 7.15-7.10 region. The Aussie is trading lower within its 0.660-0.645 range. The Pound has risen well but the target of 1.28 is kept open for now as long as the pair trades below the resistance at 1.3150. USDINR can hold the 88.50-88.85 range in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. But supports are there while above which the rise that we are expecting can still happen. The German Yields have dipped slightly. They have limited upside from here and are likely to fall eventually. The 10Yr GoI dipped as expected and then bounced back. It has to sustain above its support in order to move higher and avoid more fall.

The Dow and Dax have declined and have room to test 46500 and 23000 in the near term before pausing for a rebound. Nifty is also falling as expected and can test support near 25400 before rebouding. Failure to bounce back from 25400 can lead to further decline towards 25000 or lower. Nikkei dipped to 49073 yesterday but has managed to rise back today. View is bullish above 48000. Shanghai has broken above 4000 and looks bullish towards 4500-4100.

Crude prices stay under pressure with Brent slipping to $62.84 and WTI touching $58.83, both still vulnerable to $62 and $58 in the near term as softer demand weighs on sentiment. Gold continues to drift inside its $3900-4100 band, while Silver is trying to clear $48 for a possible push towards $50-52. Copper has bounced towards $5.10-5.20 within its broader $5.20-4.90 range, and Natural gas is firm after hitting $4.42, with room to stretch towards $4.50-4.60.

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10 Nov 25. 0818 IST or 0248 GMT or 2148 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is expected to hold above 99.50 and move towards 101 in the near term. Euro & EURINR appears bearish toward 1.14 & 101.50-101.00 while they trade below 1.16 & 102.70 respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY can head towards 178-180 & 154-155 in the coming sessions. USDCNY continues to trade within 7.15-7.10 region. The Aussie is holding the 0.645-0.660 range quite well for now. If the Pound holds above 1.3150, it can initially test 1.3250. Otherwise, a failure to sustain could drag it lower toward 1.28 from current levels. While the resistance at 88.85 holds in USDINR, a pullback toward 88.50-88.25 can be seen.

The US Treasury yields remain volatile and range bound. The range can remain intact for some more time. Bias is positive to make a bullish breakout and rise eventually. The German yields are inching up. But resistance can cap the upside and drag them lower in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI is holding above its near-term support. That keeps alive the chances of seeing some rise in this week and avoid more fall.

The Dow is holding above 46500 and can work its way towards 48000. DAX has support near 23500-23000 and can rebound towards 25000. Nifty must stay above 25200 to avoid more weakness and can climb towards 25800. Nikkei stays bullish above 49000 with room to head towards 52000. Shanghai can still test 4050 while it trades above 3950.

Crude prices are holding below key resistances, keeping the scope open for a drop towards $62 on Brent and $58 on WTI. Gold is steady above $4000 and can move towards $4100-4200, while Silver’s rise above $48 supports a push to $50-52. Copper is firm and can test $5.10-5.20 within its broader $5.20-4.90 range. Natural gas remains strong with room to reach $4.50-4.60 in the coming weeks.

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11 Nov 25. 0804 IST or 0234 GMT or 2134 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can move towards 101 in the near term. The Euro & EURINR can fall toward 1.140-1.135 & 101.50-101.00 respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY are rising as anticipated and can head towards 180 & 155 in the coming sessions. USDCNY continues to trade within 7.15-7.10 region. The Aussie has risen a bit within its 0.645-0.660 range. The Pound has a scope to test the upper resistance near 1.3250 while it holds above 1.3150. USDINR is trading within 88.50-88.85 range. While the resistance at 88.85 holds in USDINR, a pullback toward 88.50-88.25 can be seen.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. The range is intact for now and can continue for some more time. Our bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of this range. Some positive trigger might be needed for this. The German Yields are coming close to their resistance. We expect the yields to reverse lower after testing the resistance. The 10Yr GoI has come down. It looks vulnerable to break the support and fall more. We will have to watch it closely today.

The Dow rose in hopes of the federal government shutdown to near an end. A rise to 48000 is on the cards. The Dax has moved up too but needs to rise past 24000 to rise further towards 25000. Nifty has risen but may face slight resistance near 25700-25800 region from where a near term dip looks possible. Nikkei continues to rally heading towards 52000-54000 while above 51000. Shanghai is headed towards resistance at 4050 which if holds can lead to a decent dip to 3950-3900.

Crude prices stay weak below resistance and can fall towards $62 on Brent and $58 on WTI. Gold can extend its rise towards $4150-4200 and Silver can head up towards $51-52. Copper can push towards $5.10-5.20 within its broader $5.20-4.90 range. Natural gas still has room to climb towards $4.55-4.60 in the coming weeks.

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12 Nov 25. 0817 IST or 0247 GMT or 2147 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index need to rise past 100 to head towards 101. Else, a break below 99 can negate the anticipated rise and extend the fall towards 98. The Euro & EURINR face immediate resistance at 1.16 & 102.60. The targets of 1.14 & 101.50-101.00 are kept alive while the respective resistances hold. EURJPY and USDJPY are rising as anticipated and can head towards 180 & 155 in the coming sessions. USDCNY continues to trade within 7.15-7.10 region. The Aussie can hold the 0.645-0.660 range in the near term. Pound has been coming off and a breach below 1.3140 can open the doors for 1.30 as well in the coming sessions. Yesterday, USDINR declined to an low of 88.41 on offshore but has since recovered. A confirmed break below 88.50 will be necessary to push the pair lower toward the 88.30-88.25 region in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply in the early Asian session today. The range is intact and can continue for some more time. The bias is positive to get a bullish breakout of this range eventually. The German yields have come down as expected after testing their resistance. That keeps intact our bearish view of seeing a fall back. The 10Yr GoI has bounced back. The support is holding well. A further rise from here will reduce the danger of the fall that was cautioned yesterday.

The Dow and Dax have risen. The Dow may soon test 48000 and a break past would open up chances of 49000. The DAX has risen above 24000 and needs to sustain to target 25000. Nifty needs to cross the 25700/800 region to rise further. Else the index can be stuck within 25800-25400 region. Nikkei may face slight dip to 49000 if it fails to rise back above 52000 immediately. Shanghai can trade within 4050-3950 for the near term.

Crude prices have risen contrary to expectations, with Brent likely to test $66 and WTI heading towards $62 before any pullback. Gold is holding firm above $4100 and can rise towards $4150-4200, while Silver continues to strengthen towards $51.50-52.00. Copper remains within its broad $5.20-4.90 range. Natural gas is inching higher towards $4.60, and a sustained break above this level could extend its bullish move towards $4.70-4.80.

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13 Nov 25. 0831 IST or 0301 GMT or 2201 EST

Good Morning!

The US government shutdown has effectively ended as of 12-Nov-25 after 43 days of closure. The Dollar Index needs to rise past 100 to head towards 101. Else, a break below 99 can negate the anticipated rise and extend the fall towards 98. The Euro & EURINR looks stable below 1.16 & 103 for now. The targets of 1.14 & 101.50-101.00 are kept alive for now until further clarity. EURJPY can test 180 soon. While USDJPY met our target of 155 and now a sustained move above 155 will be needed to head towards 156-158. Else, a pullback towards 154-152 looks likely. USDCNY continues to trade within 7.15-7.10 region. The Aussie is trading higher within its 0.645-0.660 range. Pound has slipped below 1.3140 and can target 1.30 in the near term. USDINR is holding the 88.50-88.85 region for now.

The US Treasury yields dipped within the range and then has risen back. The sideways range remains intact, and the yields can continue to oscillate within it. The German yields have dipped further. The view is bearish to see more fall from here. The 10Yr GoI can continue to oscillate within its sideways range.

The Dow and Dax have risen and could be headed towards 49000 and 24500-25000. Nifty has risen on optimism over US-India trade deal. The index has risen above 25800 and could be headed towards 26000 soon. Nikkei is headed towards 52000 with downside limited to 49000 in the near term. Shanghai can trade within 4050-3950 for the near term.

Crude prices have dropped sharply, with Brent slipping to $62.56 and WTI hitting $58.30, and both can extend lower towards $61-60 and $57-56 as supply concerns build. Gold is steadily climbing towards $4200-4250, while Silver looks ready for a stronger move if it clears $53.77, which can open a rise to $54.50-55.50, though failure can pull it back to $52-50. Copper is expected to stay within $5.20-4.90 for now, and Natural Gas needs a break above $4.60 to push towards $4.70-4.80.

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14 Nov 25. 0806 IST or 0236 GMT or 2136 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has slipped below 99.45 and can drift towards 99-98, while EURUSD is inching higher with room to test 1.17-1.1735 before a medium-term pullback. EURINR looks firm above 102.50 and may rise to 104.5, and EURJPY is testing resistance at 180 where rejection can send it towards 178-176 unless a sustained break pushes it to 182-184. Dollar-Yen sits in a tight 155-154 band that could trigger a move to either 156-158 or 152 once broken. USDCNY is holding support near 7.0950 with a chance of a bounce, Aussie remains capped at 0.6580 within its range, Pound stays vulnerable to 1.30 while below 1.3250, and USDINR continues to trade inside 88.50-88.85 with downside opening only on a break below 88.50.

The US Treasury yields are continuing to move up and have come close to the upper end of their range. We will have to wait and see if the expected bullish breakout is happening now or not. The German yields have also risen back sharply and are just below their key resistance. A strong break above this resistance will negate our earlier bearish view. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its support and can rise more from here.

Most indices have declined on the ending of the longest ever US government shutdown as now concerns look around the FED's rate cut decision for Dec-25. The Dow and DAX have scope to test 47000 and 24000-23500 before bouncing back in the medium term. Nifty ended in the positive yesterday and could test 26000 before declining from there. Nikkei and Shanghai have declined. While Nikkei can trade within 49000-52000 for the near term, Shanghai can remain within the 3950-4050 region.

Crude prices bounced against expectations as the US government’s reopening lifted sentiment, but Brent still looks vulnerable below $65 and WTI below $62, keeping the broader view intact for a dip towards $60 and $56. Gold is holding firm after testing $4250 and can push towards $4300-4350 with the downside now limited to $4000, while Silver needs a sustained break above $54 for a move to $55-56 or else risks slipping back to $51-50. Copper is likely to stay range-bound between $5.20 and $4.90. Natural gas continues to rise in line with expectations with room to head towards $4.70-4.80.

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17 Nov 25. 0833 IST or 0303 GMT or 2203 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has moved up a bit but the target of 98 is kept open as long as it trades below 100. The EURUSD is approaching the support near 1.1550 from where a rebound towards 1.165-1.1735 is expected. EURINR looks firm above 102.50 and may rise to 104.5, EURJPY & USDJPY are hovering near the resistance coming at 180 & 155 respectively. Watch price action closely to see whether the pairs hold below resistance or extends the rise further. USDCNY is back within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie can trade within 0.6580-0.6480/60 region for some time. Pound stays vulnerable to fall towards 1.30 while below 1.3250. USDINR continues to trade within 88.50-88.85 for now.

The US Treasury yields are now at the upper end of their range. Need to wait and see if the expected bullish breakout is happening now or the yields are going to retain their range and fall back from here. The German Yields have risen, breaking above their resistance. While this break sustains, the yields can rise further and will negate our earlier bearish view. The 10Yr GoI is inching up. The support is holding well and that keeps the door open to see more rise in the coming days.

Global indices are mixed, with the Dow still open to a fall towards 46500 before attempting a rebound, while the DAX has slipped into a tighter 23500-24500 band and needs a breakout for clearer direction. Nifty has recovered well and stays biased higher as long as it holds above 25600-25500, leaving room for a push towards 26200. Nikkei is supported near 49000 and can revisit 51000-52000 if that floor holds, whereas Shanghai remains weak and is likely to hover inside the 4050-3950 range for now.

Crude prices bounced on Friday after Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk port, but both Brent and WTI still look vulnerable unless they rise past their key resistance levels, keeping room for a drop towards lower supports. Gold slipped sharply and is now leaning on the $4000 support, which needs to hold to avoid a deeper slide, while Silver tested $50 and risks further weakness if that level breaks. Copper continues to drift inside its wider $5.20-4.90 band. Natural gas stays under pressure unless it pushes back above $4.7, which is essential to revive any bullish attempt.

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18 Nov 25. 0838 IST or 0308 GMT or 2208 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index is stuck within 99-100 region. EURUSD can attempt to bounce back towards 1.16-1.17 if the support near 1.1550 holds. EURINR can trade within 103.50-102.00 region for some time. EURJPY can test 182 before getting peaked out. USDJPY can move towards 158 or even 160 on a sustained move above 156. USDCNY is gradually rising within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie is coming off within its 0.6580-0.6480/60 range and can test the support near 0.6460 if the fall extends further. Pound stays vulnerable to fall towards 1.30 while below 1.32. USDINR continues to trade within 88.50-88.80 for now.

The US Treasury yields are turning down from the upper end of their range. So, for now, the sideways range remains intact and a fall within it is possible. A bullish breakout is needed to go up. The German Yields are holding above their resistance. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to confirm the breakout and move higher. The 10Yr GoI continues to move up and can rise further in the coming days.

Global indices are mixed, with the Dow headed towards 46500 before attempting a rebound and the DAX headed towards 23500-23000 before pausing for a rebound. Nifty is rising well and can test 26200 before facing rejection. Nikkei is supported near 49000 but if breaks, can test lower support at 48000. A bounce from 49000 or 48000 can eventually take it higher in the long run. Shanghai can test 3950 before rising towards 4050 or higher. Break below 3950, if seen, can take it down to 3900.

Crude prices remains range-bound with Brent holding inside $66-62 and WTI inside $62-58 before both turn lower in the coming weeks. Gold is slipping towards the key $4000 support that decides whether it bounces or extends its fall toward $3800-3600. Silver is steady above $50 but stays vulnerable if that level breaks. Copper is still moving inside its broader $5.20-4.90 band as long as it holds above $4.90. Natural gas continues to weaken with room to slide towards $4.30.

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19 Nov 25. 0806 IST or 0236 GMT or 2136 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index continues to trade within 99-100 region for now. EURUSD can initially test 1.550 before attempting to bounce back towards 1.165. EURINR is trading lower within its 103.50-102.00 range. EURJPY can test 182 before getting peaked out. USDJPY can move towards 158 or even 160 on a sustained move above 156. USDCNY is gradually rising within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie has bounced well from the low of 0.6450 and the 0.6450-0.6560 range is likely to hold for now. Pound stays vulnerable to fall towards 1.30 while below 1.32. USDINR continues to trade within 88.50-88.80 for now.

The US Treasury yields remain stable near the upper end of their range. They have to get a bullish breakout of this range to go higher. Else they can fall within the range. The German Yields seem to struggle in getting a strong follow-through rise after the resistance breakout. Need to wait and watch if they manage to rise from here or fall below the resistance again. The 10Yr GoI has dipped slightly. Bias remains positive to rise within the range.

Crucial support is seen for most indices with the Dow, Dax and Nifty at 46000, 23000 and 25800 respectively which needs to hold for the indices to rebound back to higher levels again.Nikkei and Shanghai too have supports at 48000 and 3900 respectively which needs to hold for the indices to rebound else could become vulnerable to decline sharply over the coming days. Watch price action near the crucial supports carefully for the near term.

Brent and WTI are inching higher but still look set to stay inside their ranges and eventually turn lower. Gold is holding above $4000 for now but risks a deeper slide if that level gives way. Silver bounced back after a brief dip below $50 and needs to stay above that mark to avoid slipping toward $48-47. Copper continues to drift inside its broad $5.20-4.90 range. Natural gas remains weak after breaking below $4.30, keeping the door open for a drop toward $4.2-4.0.

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20 Nov 25. 0833 IST or 0303 GMT or 2203 EST

Good Morning!

The FED minutes released yesterday dampened the chance of a Dec-25 rate cut and led to the strength in the Dollar. The Dollar Index has risen past 100 and has a scope to extend the rise to 101 or even 102 as well. EURUSD & EURINR have dipped below 1.155 & 102 respectively. If the fall continues further, the pairs can be vulnerable to test 1.15-1.140 & 101 respectively. EURJPY & USDJPY are approaching our mentioned targets of 182-183 & 158-160 which can be tested in the near term. USDCNY is gradually rising within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie is trading lower within its 0.660-0.645 range. Pound is coming off as anticipated and can soon test the level of 1.30. USDINR is holding the 88.50-88.80 range for now, but the fall to 88.25 remain into the play while the USDINR trades below 88.80 level. Watch out for the US NFP, Unemployment, Avg hrly earnings, Philifed Index & Existing Home sales data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields are attempting to move up. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of the current range and rise going forward. The Fed meeting minutes release indicating the difference of opinion on the policy decision has raised doubts about getting another rate cut in December. This could support the yields to go up. The German Yields remain higher but stable. They need a strong follow-through rise to go further up from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. But support can limit the downside. The yield is likely to remain inside a sideways range.

The Dow has risen from 45905 and needs to sustain its rise above 46000 to slowly head towards 47000. Nikkei has risen sharply and looks bullish towards 52000 while above 49000. Dax could have room to test 23000 before rising back towards 24000-24500 in the medium term. Nifty has risen to close above 26000 again but has crucial resistance at 26200 which if holds can produce a rejection. A decisive rise above 26200 is needed for medium term bullishness to set in. Shanghai is holding above 3900 and can gradually rise to 4000-4050.

Crude prices stay weak as Brent holds within $66-62 and WTI trades inside $62-58 range for now. Gold is pushing higher above $4000 and can head towards $4150-4250. Silver must hold above $50 to aim for $51-52 or risk a slide to $48-47. Copper stays steady within $5.20-4.90. Natural gas needs a break above $4.7 to target $4.9-5.0 or it may fall toward $4.2-4.0.

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21 Nov 25. 0830 IST or 0300 GMT or 2200 EST

Good Morning!

The U.S. economy added 119k jobs in Sep-25, surpassing expectations of 54k, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, creating an unclear picture for the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision next month. The Dollar Index can test 101 as long as it stays above 100. EURUSD and EURINR hold the 1.15–1.16 and 102–103 ranges respectively for now. EURJPY and USDJPY are nearing targets of 183 and 160 that could be tested soon. While below 7.125, USDNCY can decline within its 7.13/125-7.09 range. The Aussie needs to surpass 0.6460 to maintain the 0.6450–0.6550 range; otherwise, it could fall toward 0.64 or lower. The Pound is attempting a rebound but the upside can be capped at 1.315-1.320 for now. The targets of 1.30-1.28 are kept open while the Pound trades below 1.32. USDINR can hold the 88.80-88.50/40 range for some time before a breakout occurs.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. That keeps the sideways range intact. The expected bullish breakout is getting delayed. The jobs data release showed that the US added 119K jobs to its non-farm payroll in September. The Unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%. The German Yields remain higher but stable. A strong rise is needed from here to go up and avoid a fall back. The 10Yr GoI remains stable within its sideways range.

The Dow has plunged after the delayed September jobs report was released yesterday. There is a decent support at 45000 which needs to hold for the Dow to rise back, else the index can continue to decline in the coming days. Dax continues to trade within 23000-24500. Nifty has risen to close to resistance at 26200. A rise past this can continue rally towards 26500 else, can lead to a decline towards 26000-25800. Watch price action near 26200. Nikkei has lost gains seen yesterday and plunged to levels below 49000. However while above lower support at 48000, the index could still have some scope to rebound. Shanghai has broken below 3900 and can now fall to 3800 or lower soon.

Crude prices stay weak with Brent and WTI both hovering at the lower end of their ranges and at risk of deeper drops if $62 and $58 break. Gold holds firm above $4000 and can push towards $4150-4250, while Silver trades above $50 with room to rise unless it slips below that support. Copper remains stable within its broader $5.20-4.90 band. Natural gas stays vulnerable below $4.7 with scope for a fall towards $4.2-4.0.

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24 Nov 25. 0832 IST or 0302 GMT or 2202 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can test 101 soon. EURUSD is trading lower within its 1.16.-1.15 range. EURINR needs to see a rise past 103.50 to head towards 104. EURJPY and USDJPY are rebounding and if sustained, can head towards 182-183 & 160 region respectively. Watch price action closely around current levels. USDNCY can decline within its 7.13/125-7.09 range. The Aussie & Pound can broadly trade within 0.64-0.66 & 1.30-1.32 region respectively for some time. USDINR has a scope to test 90.00-90.25 in the near term if the pair opens above 89.50.

The US Treasury yields have come down and have room to dip further within their range. It will have to be seen if they are reversing higher from the lower end of their range. The German Yields are struggling to get a strong follow-through rise after breaking above their resistance. That keeps the chances alive of seeing a fall back in the coming days. The Indian 10Yr GoI has risen well and can rise within its range.

The Dow has risen to close at 46245 after an initial decline seen in the early sessions of last week. While above 45500/45000, the index can rise towards 48000 in the near term. But note that in the longer-term charts, 48000 is a crucial resistance. Dax also managed to close above 23000 last week and if the rise sustains, it can rise towards 24000-24500 or higher, else a decisive break below 23000, can open chances of a further decline towards 22000-21000 in the coming weeks. Nifty too needs to sustain above 26000 to head towards 26200 or higher else can initially test 25800 before rebounding towards 26000-26200. Nikkei is headed towards an important support region near 48000-47585 while Shanghai too needs to sustain above 3800 to prevent a fall to 3700-3600. However, bias is to the downside for both Nikkei and Shanghai for the next 1-2 months.

Crude prices have bounced from the sharp decline seen on Friday but while Brent and WTI remains below $64 and $60, the prices could have decent scope for a fall to $60 and $56-54 respectively in the coming days. Gold is likely to trade within $4000-4150 while Silver can rise to $51-52 while above $48. Copper remains stable within its broader $5.20-4.90 band. Natural gas could rise towards $4.7/4.8 while above $4.4 on expected colder US weather for end-Nov’25.

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25 Nov 25. 0745 IST or 0215 GMT or 2115 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index can move towards 101 while it sustains above 99.50. EURUSD is trading within its 1.15.-1.16 range. EURINR can initially test 102.50 before rebounding within its 102.00-103.50/104 range. EURJPY and USDJPY needs to see a break on either side of their 180–182 & 156-158 range respectively. USDNCY is coming off and can fall towards the lower end of its 7.125-7.090 range. The Aussie need to sustain above current levels to move towards 0.65-0.655, while Pound faces immediate resistance at 1.315 which can be tested before coming down. USDINR is trading below 89.50 and has a scope to extend the decline towards 89.00-88.75. US PPI, US Retail sales & US Case Schiller are the data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have dipped further. A break below their immediate support can drag the yields lower first from here and then a reversal can happen. The German Yields remain lower. They look vulnerable to break their immediate support and fall more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI remains mixed and can go either way from here within its sideways range.

The Dow and Dax have risen following comments from Governor Waller on expectations of a potential FED rate cut in Dec-25 and on optimism on Ukraine’s peace deal. Dow could trade within 48000-45500/45000 region while Dax can trade within 23600-23000 for the near term. Nifty slipped below 26000 and could test 25800 before rebounding towards 26200 again. Nikkei has rebounded and trades higher today. A further rise towards 50000-52000 looks likely for the near term. Shanghai can bounce within the 3800-4050 region.

Crude prices have risen from levels seen yesterday. Brent and WTI could be headed towards near term resistances at $64 and $60-60.50 respectively before facing rejection from there in the coming days. Gold and Silver has risen. Gold needs to rise above $4150-4200 to indicate some near term bullishness else can remain within the $4150-4000 region while Silver looks bullish while above $48. Copper remains stable within its broader $5.10-4.90 band. Natural gas has risen as expected and could have scope to test $4.7/4.8 while above $4.4.

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26 Nov 25. 0831 IST or 0301 GMT or 2201 EST

Good Morning!

The weaker than expected US Retail sales & Consumer confidence data releases at 0.1%(0.4%) & 88.7(93.4) led Dollar Index to decline yesterday. Still the target of 101 can get achieved as long as the DXY trades above 99.50. EURUSD & EURINR face immediate resistance at 1.16 & 103.50 respectively. EURJPY is trading within 182-180 region. USDJPY can test the support near 155.50 before rising back later. USDNCY has declined below 7.09 and failing to see an immediate bounce back can extend the fall towards 7.07-7.065 as well. The Aussie can extend the rise to 0.65-0.655. Pound needs to see a sustained move above 1.32 to turn bullish in the near term, else it can continue to consolidate between 1.32-1.30 region. USDINR is trading below 89.50 and has a scope to extend the decline towards 89.00-88.75. US Personal income, US PCE & US Durable goods are the data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have come down to their key support. Failure to bounce back immediately can drag them further lower from here. The German Yields have dipped further. They look vulnerable to break below their immediate support and fall more. The 10Yr GoI has come down but has support which can limit the downside. We expect the yield to rise back from this support.

The Dow and Dax are rising and could test 48000 and 23600 soon, from where a rejection can be possible in the medium term. Nifty is headed towards our expected 25800, where the price action needs to be watched. A rebound can take it back to 26000-26200 (preferred), else can open the door for further decline to 25400-25200 (less likely). Nikkei is bullish towards 50000-52000, while Shanghai can continue to rise towards 4000, while in the 3800-4000 trade range.

Crude prices have dipped slightly. Brent and WTI could be trading in a near-term range of $64-62 and $60.50-58/56. Gold and Silver have moved up. Gold and Silver have important and decent resistance levels of $4200 and $52/54, respectively, which may hold for the near term. Only a break above the mentioned levels, if seen, can take the prices up towards $4400 and $54 respectively. Copper has broken above $5.10 and is now headed to the next resistance at $5.2, from where a rejection back to $4.80 looks likely. Natural gas has dipped within the range of $4.7-4.4, within which a bounce from $4.4 looks likely in the next couple of days.

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27 Nov 25. 0813 IST or 0243 GMT or 2143 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index need to see a immediate bounce from current levels to keep the target of 101 alive. Else, it can be vulnerable to fall towards 99 or lower. EURUSD & EURINR face immediate resistance near at 1.1610 & 103.75 respectively. Wath price action closely to see whether the respective resistance holds or not. EURJPY is trading within 180-182 region. USDJPY has a scope to rise back towards 158 while it trades above 155.75. USDCNY can fall towards 7.07-7.065 before rebounding later. The Aussie can test the target of 0.655 in the coming sessions. Pound has moved above 1.32 and if sustained, can head towards 1.33-1.34 in the near term. USDINR can hold the 89.00-89.50 range in the near term.

The US Treasury yields continue to move down. They have room to fall further to test their support. Thereafter the yields can rise back again. The German Yields remain lower. The struggle to get a strong rise keeps them vulnerable to fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI is holding above its support. The yields can rise back if it manages to sustain above the support.

The Dow and Dax continue to rise, targeting 48000 and 24000-24200. Nifty tested crucial resistance near 26200. A break above 26250 can take it higher towards 26400 eventually. Else, we may see an initial decline to 25800/25500 within a medium-term uptrend. Nikkei has risen as expected and is now bullish towards 52000, while Shanghai can continue to rise towards 4000 while in the 3800-4000 trade range.

Crude remains stable with limited downside potential in the near term. Gold tested 4200 and pulled back; a break above 4200 could open 4400, while failure to rise may drag it back to 4050. Silver is nearing its long-term resistance at $54, from where a drop toward $50–48 is likely unless a sustained break above $54 triggers fresh bullishness. Copper has spiked to resistance at $5.21, and while this holds, a dip toward $5–4.8 is expected. Natural gas has gained on stronger-than-expected inventory draws, but below 4.7, a decline toward 4.4 is possible.

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28 Nov 25. 0808 IST or 0238 GMT or 2138 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has immediate support near 99.50. While it holds above this level, the rise toward 101 remains in play. EURUSD & EURINR can decline within 1.16-1.15 & 103.75-102.00 range respectively. EURJPY is trading within 180-182 region. USDJPY has a scope to rise back towards 158 while it trades above 156. USDCNY can fall towards 7.07-7.065 before rebounding later. The Aussie can test 0.655 on the upside. Thereafter, whether the rise extends or not will have to be seen. Pound has declined a bit but the target of 1.33-1.34 is kept open while it trades above 1.32. USDINR can hold the 89.00-89.50 range in the near term.

The US Treasury yields are hovering around their support. Immediate resistances are ahead while below which a fall is still possible before a reversal is seen. The German Yields remain stable. Unless a strong rise is seen from here, a break below their immediate support and fall cannot be ruled out from here. The 10Yr GoI is bouncing back well from its support. The yield can rise more in the coming days.

The Dow was closed yesterday for Thanksgiving Day, while the Dax has risen and can continue to target 24000-24200. Nifty needs to break above 26500 to keep the bullish momentum intact else can face a decline from there in the coming sessions. Till then, a rise to 26400/500 looks likely in the very near term. Nikkei has risen as expected and is now bullish towards 52000, while Shanghai can continue to rise towards 4000 while in the 3800-4000 trade range.

Crude prices have risen slightly and could continue to move up in the near term. Gold and Silver have broken above their immediate resistance levels of $4200 and $54 and if the rise sustains, we may look for further bullishness. However, we need to remain cautious till the bullish sentiment is established. Copper has dipped, as it holds below the resistance at $5.21. It can test $5.1-5.0 before eventually rebounding in the medium term. Natural gas holds strong. Watch price action at $4.7, a break above which can be further bullish; else a decline from there can drag it lower to $4.4 gradually.

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