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TA + FA = PA Psychological Analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 18, 2007 11:56am Aug 18, 2007 11:56am
I've been kicking around the idea of combining TA and FA into a new category i'll call "Psychological Ananysis". Here's a basic idea for how it can work:

TA's like moving averages, S/R, candles, MACD divergence etc will be used to identify areas of "inflection points"-places where the market will potentially be making a "decision". That decision will be based on FA, the fundamentals-what is happening at that particular time. Putting that together will create the PA-psychological analysis.

Any interest in exploring this further?
  • #2
  • Aug 18, 2007 12:06pm Aug 18, 2007 12:06pm
Some have already unofficially named it "fundatechnical", but it hasn't really taken off given only 94 google matches.
  • #3
  • Aug 18, 2007 12:07pm Aug 18, 2007 12:07pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
I've been kicking around the idea of combining TA and FA into a new category i'll call "Psychological Ananysis". Here's a basic idea for how it can work:

TA's like moving averages, S/R, candles, MACD divergence etc will be used to identify areas of "inflection points"-places where the market will potentially be making a "decision". That decision will be based on FA, the fundamentals-what is happening at that particular time. Putting that together will create the PA-psychological analysis.

Any interest in exploring this further?
I am....

Thursday's Dow Jones session showed it all. There is a level where the three of them converge boosting a violent move.

Either overbought (TA) + subprime crisis (FA) + panic (PA) when the problems began or the short term oversold (TA) + Fed-coming-for-help rumour (FA) + Stocks bargain at 12,500 dow jones (PA)

That was clear because the move was fast and furious. But may be working as we speak during those boring trading days...
  • #4
  • Aug 18, 2007 1:19pm Aug 18, 2007 1:19pm
OK I will rely on TA traders to provide the insight there. I'll provide the FA and other readers can contibute too.

We'll put that together for the overall PA. Let's see how it goes.
  • #5
  • Aug 18, 2007 1:27pm Aug 18, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting cesarnc
I am....

Thursday's Dow Jones session showed it all. There is a level where the three of them converge boosting a violent move.

Either overbought (TA) + subprime crisis (FA) + panic (PA) when the problems began or the short term oversold (TA) + Fed-coming-for-help rumour (FA) + Stocks bargain at 12,500 dow jones (PA)

That was clear because the move was fast and furious. But may be working as we speak during those boring trading days...
Even a broken clock is right two times a day..
But none the less, every approach needs its shot. Im interested to see where this goes as well.
  • #6
  • Aug 18, 2007 2:14pm Aug 18, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
OK I will rely on TA traders to provide the insight there. I'll provide the FA and other readers can contibute too.

We'll put that together for the overall PA. Let's see how it goes.
On the overall PA for Monday, I want to see how Asia is going to react to Friday as the last market to trade the Fed's propelled turnaround.

It was visible that US market was able to control its nerves looking at the half-full part of the glass, while the Asian market sucumbed to a generalized Psychological crackdown.

Dow traded a 10% loss at the apex of the trouble but never closed a day losing more than 7% from last top (13,000 points off the 14,000). While Asian markets went down some 5-8% only on Friday session.

I'm looking at this event very closely in face of the lession taken after Feb's Chinese crisis. It looks like TA, FA and PA can get aligned in such a way early this week, that a massive recovery of the bottoms would provide the best setup ever since Feb.

I wasn't experienced enough to read between those lines and simply missed the opportunity to (for example) long GJ for a 2,000 pips reward out of 100 pips risk. I'm not going to allow that to happen again.

Two beautiful setups within a year. My first year in forex. I don't take for granted we are having other one of those 6 months from now - sincerely I hope so
  • #7
  • Aug 18, 2007 2:25pm Aug 18, 2007 2:25pm
And on TA, this is what poped in front of me when I checked the Euro weekly. This trendline was there before the chaos.

Panic just forgot its existence (shoot first ask later week, of course). But surely the bottom fishers were dying to get a piece of this one.

RMK1 - Euro is accountable for 58% of the dollar index alone. So its bias is 12 countries' bias on the dollar as well...

RMK2 - If I'm working on the weekend? Oh boy, with all those juicy bottoms across the board, I would be able to call it a year on Aug 31 - 4 months vacation
  • #8
  • Aug 18, 2007 2:26pm Aug 18, 2007 2:26pm
Forgot the chart...
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  • #9
  • Aug 19, 2007 2:56am Aug 19, 2007 2:56am
I concentrate on GBP/JPY-that's where the pips are and the connections are much easier to make.
  • #10
  • Aug 19, 2007 10:28am Aug 19, 2007 10:28am
Anyone care to contribute some TA for the GBP/JPY and the JPY crosses in general? BTW the trendline on your E/U chart matches nicely with a weekly G/U chart
  • #11
  • Aug 19, 2007 11:44am Aug 19, 2007 11:44am
Your buying into a downtrend market(only trade 4h charts but what the hell do i know im still new to this game).
  • #12
  • Aug 19, 2007 12:09pm Aug 19, 2007 12:09pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
Anyone care to contribute some TA for the GBP/JPY and the JPY crosses in general? BTW the trendline on your E/U chart matches nicely with a weekly G/U chart
GJ traded back above the 23% fib of the down move on the weekly. UJ didn't yet. Technically, too much down pressure yet and I have no calls on the Asian PA for today. Impulsive recovery following Friday's NYC or choppy until further clue. I would give 60/40 in anticipation, though.

On my side I prefer confirmation of the recovery, miss some 100 maybe 200 pips until 229, then go long first target 240s, long haul.
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  • #13
  • Aug 19, 2007 12:10pm Aug 19, 2007 12:10pm
UJ
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  • #14
  • Aug 19, 2007 4:21pm Aug 19, 2007 4:21pm
"Caution" is the mood hitting the wires so far. Kind of "we may have seen the bottom, too soon to tell" and "Bernanke has sent a message, we're not sure what he meant" LOL
  • #15
  • Aug 19, 2007 4:59pm Aug 19, 2007 4:59pm
I'm looking at the same fib on my weekly chart-except I don't use the wick at the top. And without looking at how the Nikkei is trading I can't form an opinion yet. Anything is really possible here-you could see prices in a tight range, although i'm thinking about more volitility especially on news regarding the current situation. Definately in "observation mode" at this time though.
  • #16
  • Aug 19, 2007 5:15pm Aug 19, 2007 5:15pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
I'm looking at the same fib on my weekly chart-except I don't use the wick at the top. And without looking at how the Nikkei is trading I can't form an opinion yet. Anything is really possible here-you could see prices in a tight range, although i'm thinking about more volitility especially on news regarding the current situation. Definately in "observation mode" at this time though.
Same here... I'm only in during Asia, confirming strong push up + volatile yen down (UJ up). Not buying any yen at these highs. Otherwise, I'll catch up at Frankfurt only.
  • #17
  • Edited 9:16pm Aug 19, 2007 5:19pm | Edited 9:16pm
Here was a possible "inflection point" as shown by the bearish divergence in the MACD and momentum indicators. I don't really see them showing anything now. I'm using this fib of the last uptrend on the daily chart, but at this point I can't say if the down trend will continue or not. I am interested to see if support will be found at the 2236 level, around the 225.6 area (bid)
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  • #18
  • Aug 19, 2007 6:50pm Aug 19, 2007 6:50pm
The perfect indicator for psychological anaylisis would be Elliot wave theory
since it is the graphical representation of crowd psychology, only problem is everybody has a different wave count and a different idea of how far are we going up/down and all the little details can get confusing which is why most people regard it as a lost cause. NOT ME. I study it everday, almost more than I study the current charts, why? because it works.
Anyway long story short, most Ellioticians have the same opinion about the current situation and that is, we ARE NOT finished with this bear movement.
So please be careful about any long positions. Yes we should see a small up movement (maybe we already have seen this on friday) but the real strength is still bearish. It still has a way to go before the running of the bulls.
My two pips.

Nice thread by the way, but I still like to crake jokes on the cable thread.
Just Trade It
  • #19
  • Aug 19, 2007 7:16pm Aug 19, 2007 7:16pm
Nikkei 2%+ at open. Tells everything about PA. To check whether or not will sustain gains...

I don't EW for techis, you could imagine for PA. I don't belive hedge funds crash because of end of wave 5, or market will recover because of "impulsive sub-wave 4 iii(b)" or whatever ....

There are ultra-cheap shares across the planet so far. It is a hell of a bargain if indeed we've seen the bottom. I'm biased with these people until confirmation we haven't. No trades taken, though.
  • #20
  • Aug 19, 2007 8:11pm Aug 19, 2007 8:11pm
Quoting cesarnc
I don't belive hedge funds crash because of end of wave 5, or market will recover because of "impulsive sub-wave 4 iii(b)" or whatever .... .

I do

Its been good to me so far, Yes ther are times when we all are wondering what the hell is going on, like now, but EW does give you and good idea of what can happen next based off of chart info that goes back to over a hundred years. And yet the market has certain patterns that it still follows. Yes the fundamentals are what pushes the market in any direction, but the charts always unfolds in patterns and E.W can help you figure out which pattern we are in and which pattern MIGHT happen next ( alot better probibilty than just guessing). However I do not make trades based off of E.W alone, but it is my favorite tool in the box and I like big tool boxes with lots of tools.
In my big garage with all my toys.
Just Trade It
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