China to remove tariffs on US agriculture goods from Nov 10

I desperately hope you are right because I have (and had) WAYYY too much leverage on....but every time I think we are out of the woods on one of these moves, I hear my old pal 'Happy' in the back of my head saying "It ain't over yet McGavin...."

That said, 1000 points on the /nq in 36 hours is nothing to sneeze at. The move off the lows (240 pts up) isn't really full-on "retracement" mode either. There was a breech of the 20 day MA on the /nq which would warrant a stall (and bounce). If today closes below that level though, there could be more downside ahead (even if just to the 50 day MA, we are still talking 620+ addition points to the downside).

Cautious optimism is probably the way to play it....not balls to the wall insane leverage at these levels (as I am currently attempting).

I’d disagree 35T the area to be watching for a potential bounce area this month is 24800-25000 NQ , SPX 6700 or below . I think we have further downside to come across the board in US indices . Selling generally induces selling by its very nature of the herd effect .

Intraday bounces possible,but not a dip buying opportunity as yet .

NB - Of course you’ll tell us all in hindsight how correct you were .

I'll say this: the world could do well with a sliver of your optimism if applied more broadly than just the markets! It's certainly easier on the psyche to think so positively all the time, that's for sure!

I was pleasantly surprised to see the bounce off overnight lows. I thought the 20day MA would be our bounce spot, but when it broke through I was thinking: oh, boy, here we go. So far, anyway, the bleeding paused.

Now, I can't tell you how many times we've seen a rally into the open and then a crash to new daily lows recently (oh, wait, I can just look at the charts). BUT...I do hope that isn't the case today. All indexes are green as I type this, which is quite welcomed.

That said, the "AI unwind" you're talking about was, in my opinion, NOT what just occurred. That move, if it happens, would lead to a ~30-50% drawdown in the /nq as the move would be initiated by a catastrophic blow to the concept of AI (government somehow banning it, missiles launched erroneously, FSD cars purposely crashing into one another, who the heck knows). Likely, nope. But a 5% pullback in /nq could more closely align to sentiment of "we don't know if we'll get all the power we need to push the AI as far as it can go over the next 6-9 months, but it is still going to be big...". THAT narrative, I'd believe....and am hoping never to see the catastrophic meltdown from a full-on rug pull. A $6 bounce in NVDA is hardly an "explosion" off lows

So, where do we stand? There's usually a little time between "bear markets" (well simplify this term to a 20% drawdown). We've had 3 in the past 5 years (4 if you want to get really technical about it), including 1 this year. That is way above normal, and quite recent [so let's not see it again any time soon, yeah?]. Markets typically pull back 5% a few times a year. Well, we just saw 5% down in the /rty and the /nq was close behind (over 4%) at overnight lows at 1100 off the highs from last week. Could we see move down to the 25000 area and finishing off the 5% move? Its possible....but I certainly hope not.

As for your last sentences, you're spot on. "It will implode some day...." The only addition I would off to the final sentence is: "....or it could be tomorrow". That's the game.

Good luck to everyone today/this week.

China's "some US tariff off" news overnight seemed to help stabilize things a bit. Services PMI today is going to move the market as well. And, while it won't make a ruling any time soon, the SCOUS tariff oral arguments today will no doubt be leaked and cause a little stir at some point as well (depending on when that occurs). If the government could get its act together and re-open, the perceived stability would also be a, I have to imagine, a catalyst to the upside...even if temporarily. Then it's all about NVDA earnings on 11/19.

More good news to make stocks go to new all time highs. A single down day was all they could do. Everyone desperately buying everything, Nvidia flying off the lows, unstoppable.

That was the AI overvalued crash everyone was waiting for. Look at the after hours lows on AI stocks, they exploded off those lows. So the so called crash had trillions of dollars waiting to go long, not sell. New all time highs soon, by definition. A market that is literally never allowed to go down in 6 months has to go higher. Never broke a prior low, never had two down weeks, every dip bought with a literal straight line up move. There is zero fear or weakness in this market. Sure it will implode one day, they always do, but that could be a long time from now.

Another 50 point move up in the SPX again tonight. Unstoppable dip buyers 100% continues.

Trump benevolence and virtue is omnipresent and blessing the entire world.