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The Swamp

  • #125,661
  • Nov 3, 2025 4:12am Nov 3, 2025 4:12am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i m not sure if 1520 can hold or we will go 1480 first
That 6h gave me a clue to close Friday's long and to short.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,662
  • Nov 3, 2025 4:13am Nov 3, 2025 4:13am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea i m not sure if i should take a long here… not enough confirmation but it does have the opportunity to go back up from here or a bit lower…
I have a bearish bias since the 6h closed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,663
  • Nov 3, 2025 4:35am Nov 3, 2025 4:35am
If it gets in the 1471 area.. I will look for some closing. 1533 could always attract pa. But the b/o 1520/23 can resist.. that's a coin flip. Monday's tend to run. The earlier signs 6h and 12h indicate a run would be bearish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,664
  • Nov 3, 2025 4:55am Nov 3, 2025 4:55am
Quoting gatorinla
If it gets in the 1471 area.. I will look for some closing. 1533 could always attract pa. But the b/o 1520/23 can resist.. that's a coin flip. Monday's tend to run. The earlier signs 6h and 12h indicate a run would be bearish {image}
yea everything pointing south for now. Even if we get a bounce later it might be limited.
i tend to believe we have seen the top for this year already
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,665
  • Nov 3, 2025 5:58am Nov 3, 2025 5:58am
Quoting gatorinla
If it gets in the 1471 area.. I will look for some closing. 1533 could always attract pa. But the b/o 1520/23 can resist.. that's a coin flip. Monday's tend to run. The earlier signs 6h and 12h indicate a run would be bearish {image}
1464/71ish +- area. Has a Fib, I put a trajectory (not based on anything but a 1737 fair value year close pulled from the nearest low that still works.) PA is still well above the trajectory fair year value at 1.039x (pulled from this years high). Between the 2 is 1.1xxx. I will assume one will pull harder. Putting this here in the event there some support at 1.146x/71ish area. My ma's are all bearish. So I'm thinking 147x area. If some crazy shit happens with a bounce. PA could be attracted to 1622 early Wednesday morning during London.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,666
  • Nov 3, 2025 6:00am Nov 3, 2025 6:00am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea everything pointing south for now. Even if we get a bounce later it might be limited. i tend to believe we have seen the top for this year already
Late year runs can stick
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,667
  • Nov 3, 2025 7:25am Nov 3, 2025 7:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1464/71ish +- area. Has a Fib, I put a trajectory (not based on anything but a 1737 fair value year close pulled from the nearest low that still works.) PA is still well above the trajectory fair year value at 1.039x (pulled from this years high). Between the 2 is 1.1xxx. I will assume one will pull harder. Putting this here in the event there some support at 1.146x/71ish area. My ma's are all bearish. So I'm thinking 147x area. If some crazy shit happens with a bounce. PA could be attracted to 1622 early Wednesday morning during London....
ADR is also this area. If its truly making a bear run if may just fall below the 1471 area. But since January pa has weakened the usd. The current headlines don't seem to be improving the usd image. It has that fib there at 1471. LC can still pull to 1533x.. I was hoping it hit 1471ish first.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,668
  • Nov 3, 2025 11:15am Nov 3, 2025 11:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ADR is also this area. If its truly making a bear run if may just fall below the 1471 area. But since January pa has weakened the usd. The current headlines don't seem to be improving the usd image. It has that fib there at 1471. LC can still pull to 1533x.. I was hoping it hit 1471ish first.
poor us data is stopping us for further down, after 3 days of dropping we might need a bit of consolidation/retracement.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,669
  • Nov 3, 2025 6:40pm Nov 3, 2025 6:40pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} poor us data is stopping us for further down, after 3 days of dropping we might need a bit of consolidation/retracement.
I'm looking to TP and buy in the 1471ish area.
I may have a better decision later. But atm this is my plan if the 6h closes below 1614.. It looks like 1471 area will test.
I have a day trend support there also. It don't look like 1623 will happen
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,670
  • Edited 9:04pm Nov 3, 2025 8:50pm | Edited 9:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm looking to TP and buy in the 1471ish area. I may have a better decision later. But atm this is my plan if the 6h closes below 1614.. It looks like 1471 area will test. I have a day trend support there also. It don't look like 1623 will happen
similiar plan here. I am waiting for 1480 to be hit
not sure if we will but for now it does look like we are going there
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,671
  • Nov 3, 2025 10:07pm Nov 3, 2025 10:07pm
the 6h looks down, so the 12h may close below 1514,, for a drop.. The 1406 level is a b/o support..
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  • #125,672
  • Nov 3, 2025 10:09pm Nov 3, 2025 10:09pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} similiar plan here. I am waiting for 1480 to be hit not sure if we will but for now it does look like we are going there
I think 1471 on a day close may support.. If not that trend breaks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,673
  • Nov 3, 2025 10:19pm Nov 3, 2025 10:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think 1471 on a day close may support.. If not that trend breaks.
i do have a free fall scenario which it could be very fast but I m not sure if we will see that 1480 to usdx is possibly 100.25 which is the last high (1st Aug). It should react
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,674
  • Nov 4, 2025 9:06am Nov 4, 2025 9:06am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i do have a free fall scenario which it could be very fast but I m not sure if we will see that 1480 to usdx is possibly 100.25 which is the last high (1st Aug). It should react
Most often 1470 would take a day close below. It usually takes a few tries to break it with a day close. It may be rejected there. Its hitting the trajectory line now.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1464/71ish +- area. Has a Fib, I put a trajectory (not based on anything but a 1737 fair value year close pulled from the nearest low that still works.) PA is still well above the trajectory fair year value at 1.039x (pulled from this years high). Between the 2 is 1.1xxx. I will assume one will pull harder. Putting this here in the event there some support at 1.146x/71ish area. My ma's are all bearish. So I'm thinking 147x area. If some crazy shit happens with a bounce. PA could be attracted to 1622 early Wednesday morning during London. {image}
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  • #125,675
  • Nov 4, 2025 9:24am Nov 4, 2025 9:24am
My Ma's are bearish like yours are. This 1470 area may give bears a hard time.. I have day trend support here on a day bullish trend..
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  • #125,676
  • Nov 4, 2025 9:38am Nov 4, 2025 9:38am
If pa gets back above 1533 (This week),, its likely going up further.. See if 1533 supports.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,677
  • Nov 4, 2025 2:56pm Nov 4, 2025 2:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
My Ma's are bearish like yours are. This 1470 area may give bears a hard time.. I have day trend support here on a day bullish trend.. {image}
1470-80 critical support! I expect a bounce here too but let see
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,678
  • Nov 4, 2025 3:31pm Nov 4, 2025 3:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Most often 1470 would take a day close below. It usually takes a few tries to break it with a day close. It may be rejected there. Its hitting the trajectory line now. {quote} {image}
Nothing much happened here except it stalled. The liquid could be 70 71 or deeper. Its still on the bearish side.. Bears need a LL and sustained pa below 1470 with a day close to break the day uptrend support
If pa is above 1476 on the 6h close. That may be short term neutral range territory. If the same 6h closes above 1501. The 12h will usually follow. In that case pa may retrace some, but the day may be a little bullish enough to test the R at 1533. It may be above 1533
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,679
  • Nov 5, 2025 8:29am Nov 5, 2025 8:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Nothing much happened here except it stalled. The liquid could be 70 71 or deeper. Its still on the bearish side.. Bears need a LL and sustained pa below 1470 with a day close to break the day uptrend support If pa is above 1476 on the 6h close. That may be short term neutral range territory. If the same 6h closes above 1501. The 12h will usually follow. In that case pa may retrace some, but the day may be a little bullish enough to test the R at 1533. It may be above 1533 {image}
Bears need to hold below 1476x and close the day below 1470. This beats the day uptrend. If not It may be going higher. Maybe 1,2067
If the bears cant kill the bull here.. look for a challenge at 1533.. Above it may gain momentum in a rise.
All your Ma's are bearish now. It made a LL.. But it has to break this 1470 support.. If it does in the future 1470 can be a R forming.
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  • #125,680
  • Nov 5, 2025 5:41pm Nov 5, 2025 5:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bears need to hold below 1476x and close the day below 1470. This beats the day uptrend. If not It may be going higher. Maybe 1,2067 If the bears cant kill the bull here.. look for a challenge at 1533.. Above it may gain momentum in a rise. All your Ma's are bearish now. It made a LL.. But it has to break this 1470 support.. If it does in the future 1470 can be a R forming. {image}
It so has been unable to get below and -1476. It also didn't take the day close below 1470. If the next 6h closes above 1493., there is a good chance it could be breaking out. More so if the 12 is above it indicating a up day. If it later can take 1533.9+ it may be another higher b/o.
All b/o points are resistance too.. They can swat it down. It has to be sustained above, not just a wick..
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