The White Whale

can prbly do that Thurs for a buck or two....will see what CPI does for the index. Shorting NDX based on the premise of October pre-election volatility, none of that seen as of yet. No guarantee that it will appear at all.

Plowed profits from the call spread into a roll of the put spread, rolled 18700 O11/14 cldr puts to N01/04 19200 (also 19300, 19500) cldr puts. Looking for a pre-election pullback, if only small. new spreads will do ok with anything under 20,000.

we'll see if TSLA tanks and pushes down on the index, break even on 11/1 is about 20,000. If I can get out with any profit at all in the next week, I'll be happy.

I rolled the NDX put cldrs again in the last week, so it's now at Nov8/11 19000 for about $9 debit. For a while on the drop under 20,000 Thursday they were worth near $20. I'm hanging in. I may try to run to next Friday, but if we get a good pullback by Tues I'll likely grab some cash, take 1/2 off. I think what we saw on Thursday was a small hint of what's in store during the coming week if there's a messy election outcome....

yep, those were trashed and I got em sold for a dollar.

I am taming the beast, though. Here's a general approach that is good for steady profit: double calendars on a 2-week cycle. Pick the calendar strikes close to the 2-week expiry exp move, but tweak to put those on round numbers with some kind of volume, if possible. Generally, put the trade on by Thurs-Fri of week 0, and plan on taking it off partially by Friday of week 1, or by the first day or so of week 2. Only let a side run to expiry if you really think there's a chance NDX could stick your target strike. I have rather gotten more mechanical and will just take the whole thing off by Tues or so of week 2. Then rinse & repeat.

I typically have to thin numbers to clear cash calls in Week 2, because I am pushing the limit on size. Of course, I wouldn't do that if I thought I might fail.....

For the entry, use market awareness to trade around big events. For instance, I will wait til price action clears tomorrow's FOMC, then contemplate my entry. Also use mkt awareness to assess the spread between the calendars - you might bring them closer in than the expected move length. You'll have a deeper initial debit, but also a higher POP.

You can hedge put tail risk a bit, but I usually don't....market just never goes down. Well never is an overstatement, but you know what I means...

We need more traders willing to ride this pig, the volume is pretty thin in there and fills can be well off the mid sometimes, but I always get filled....

1st entry for the run to Black Friday

The premise is we will see a cave by Trump on the tariffs (or perhaps other tariff relief news) by the weekend. Risking $300 to make max >$15,000 per unit.

Tried filling up to $3.25...NDX spreads hard to fill, usually need to go pretty far above the mid. It'll be there again, something similar....

NDX lotto play for the week, I will take off the calendar for $35...

closed all put flys for $2.60, a $2 loss; closed 2/6 call flys for $15.50, have a $35 tp set for 4/6 remaining

....took one more call cldr off for $14.50, now will hold thru the tech earnings gauntlet into Thurs

NDX for next week....I only filled the moonshot call calendar, need to enter the put trades Monday...

more likely will combo as shown below. A 100-wide call diagonal @30-35 delta and double (or triple) up the fotm calendar. As shown, leaves a >$700 downside credit and the combo will make money on a push above 26,000.

I can't do a 100-wide put diagonal for decent credit, so content to take small credit on downside protection from the calls. Tough to bet against the N100 anyway, especially if you can manage to enter on any kind of dip.

(reassess all NDX, as weekend spreads will come in Monday, so that large call credit might come way down....)

with put skew as is and iv's elevated, can't do reasonable no-downside-risk put combos like this on SPX, either. Will be better if/when iv's come down. But I don't see that happening soon, not by much.

SPX I'd say start with the diagonal at 10-15 delta, 25-wide, and then find the fotm calendar that debits a comparable amount. Ratio 2:1 or whatever you like more than that. These will make money on any drop, but really need at least 50 down from the open....

This weeks Fri/Mon spreads. Just need NDX to do what it loves to do. B/E is a little over 26,000 @ expiry

trying to fill the put fly shown to cover the downside a bit, it also b/e @ 26,000....filled

a slow grind up ~150-200 pts a day til Thurs-Friday will suit me fine.

I rolled down the 27000 calls to 26400, otherwise sitting tight. A btfd moment or not, I'll have to put something on 1dte for a Wed bounce

back to pure long NDX, entered the combo shown hoping for a steady grind up to 26,000 by Friday. Off to a good start overnight with /NQ up 320 now. I may add a little something to guard the downside, maybe some QQQ put spreads, but the upside looks safe. We'll see. As shown <$2k risk could easily net >$30k. Perfect finish Friday close near 26,050 could be >$60k.