Old Fashioned Trading - Aimed at First - Two Year Traders

It warms my heart that post, If I've provoked a long-term lurker with knowledge to agree and post I'm on to something, so thank you for the contribution

A Sell Example

1. Prev Daily High, it's rejected - double top / failed high.
2. Previous day New York session 'Point of Control' under and moving away.
3. A break, actually two breaks.
4. Faint green line, Asia session high and low range, left the range moving down.
5. Bearish engulfing candle.
6. Volume increase, above the average volume, current last closed bar tick volume.
7. Volume delta increasing.
8. Current session H8 'Point of control' touched and moving away.
9. There is another bearish engulfing and this was from pullback to first break (the inside grey candle touches 38% fib pullback).

The ADR 218 pip. Partial 25% at 200 pip, take profit 400, stop loss 200 and because of where this is, double top/ failed high and what has been happening with gold, the long-term daily fib level and observed parabolic (post#10). I'm going to leave a small 25% as a runner, either trailing or manually following it down.

The second image; Removing most of my indicators, you would have to draw previous day high, no fib, no sessions, and substituting volume profile and replacing with anchored VWAP, set to the top high candle, with this and looking at the tick volume, you can see the volume is with the bears, even with a bullish candle reacting to the high of yesterday New York session - volume gives the game away!

I've left candle detection to show colours, the dark red is bearish engulfing, the bullish engulfing I'm referring to is cyan (light blue) :-with no ego, no bias, purely observing volume, which every platform has, no indicators needed apart from a moving average, a bit of practice, a bit of experience, hard work, time, and fix that psychology - Just look at it, Daniel-san

wax on, wax off...

To summarise this thread's message, **For now this is where impulsive, inpatient targeted training ends. In a couple of weeks or after a loss, go back to the beginning and read, watching all the videos, through to here and including this post again, **

I've left the door open to quite a shitty looking house, in a not too posh, quite average neighbourhood (imagine Bradford).

In this house at the end of the hallway, a 90° hallway, through the kitchen, past all that health food and down the basement, you have to open the door first, its not open for you, past the gym, there is a games room. The room also has a vault, with the door wide open and full of gold.

You never made it up the driveway to look inside this house because you're not a thief!

Or, because on that street, all you can hear are supercars, engines, revving, you follow the glorious noise, the tempting harmonics of a V10, and the shiny new latest supercars. You rest and gather your thoughts, with the cool broccoli head dudes, in between the " bruh bruv", "vibes and whats cooking", you are kicked in the balls and punched in the face, AGAIN!


How many times do you want to be punched in the face?

I plan this week in between markets to talk / discuss topics below (if anything of interest pops up during the week I'll post a couple examples of trades and a losing trade):

It will have more of a study / back to school feel to it, several topics planned:

1 Gaps / FVG,
2 New York open/close time and how it affects interbank,
3 How brokers can have different open times for the 4hr chart,
4. Gaps with futures chart,
5. Round numbers,
6. Breaker Blocks/Inducement - but might be next week, depends if an opportunity for an example presents itself.

Also, I need need to actually trade at some stage.

Will have more time at the weekend, I will be addressing fear/hesitancy or at least attempting to address and will stay on this subject for a period of time.

Fundamentals Warning, yeah I know boring...

Futures market, if you are not familiar with it:

Futures markets originally were for farmers and merchant traders to offset and hedge the future price of grain, tulips, rice, tobacco. Anything exposed to the weather has an obvious risk to it. Farming is risky with the weather, you can't forecast the outcome of a crop's yield or price. America takes farming to industrial levels, huge fields, with huge crop yields and huge weather!

History

Netherlands - This started as early as the 1600's, forward contracts - Tulips and spices

England -1600-1700s - Tea

Asia and Japan 1730's Standardised futures for price of Rice

US Chicago - Modern-day futures style contracts are from mid-1800s, future price of grain, hogs, cheese etc.



Gold has futures with Jewellers and production in mind. If you buy as a jeweller, it can be some time before your product is on the market and sold. If you're a small family firm, purchased a gold bullion bar, if you use small quantities of gold 'carat', the price you paid for this stock will have changed drastically. By the time the piece of jewelry gets to market, you may have to lower the price and that price is less than the spot price of gold you purchased the bullion bar. Futures is used to hedge this risk.

A hedge is a way to protect yourself from future price changes if you're exposed to the price of oil dropping and your stock is heavily dependent on energy prices. You will hedge by taking a position against oil. So, if the worst does happen, you have achieved a profit with oil, and that counters the loss from stock.

Brokers do the same if they are exposed to a number of trades in one direction; they will hedge on the market, brokers will have been long on Gold all year. Bookmakers do similar with betting. A lot of bets on one horse, they will themselves take a bet with that horse, or hire a hitman to shoot the horse..

Short version - spot is over the counter jewellery (London Bullion Market Association).
Futures - wherever futures price level is, spot eventually will follow.

Yesterday is a good example to highlight and will lead into a couple of the topics above, FVG, round numbers, futures gap, spot gaps and highlight the "The King of Greed".

This chart is also an example of how easy trading actually is when trending. Any number of trend following strategies and systems would have worked yesterday, if anything, this highlights how overly restrictive mine is:

I've increased the opacity of session box/lines and round numbers horizontal lines, round number here are every 500 pips or $5.

1. Gap, the week has opened with a gap to spot price.
2. Break, from the gap, start of the week - I ignored this
3. Asia session 'Point of control'.
4. Break - this is valid, now looking for shorts.
5. Break - confirms short, or signal opportunity to short again.
6. London 'Point of control'.
7. Dark cloud candle, touching round number.
8. Volume details
9. Round number lines.
10. Daily open price.
FVG - will discuss later

Not shown here, but I will cover on the next post, the futures Daily chart has gapped down (post#27). The first break I discount because it's start of the week and the gap has broken it. Although that and with the futures gap, I'm looking for shorts.

The second break, I'm looking for a pullback, the pullback is late Asia (green box). That light blue candle is detected as engulfing, but its tiny also a spinning top and with no volume. Without a candle to confirm, I would take that signal with volume, but volume is marginally under average and the delta was decreasing. So I left it, I don't want to be in slow meandering trade, waiting for my take profit to hit and I'm getting close to London open, early New York and at risk for a reversal. You could say opportunity missed.

The third break, I haven't touched on 'elliot theory' yet, but this is my last opportunity of the day, I wouldn't short again on fourth break, three is final number. I'm ok with the idea of finishing blank, no trades. There is a yellow dark cloud in the middle of the wick inside candles, 8th candle from the break, with volume but its too confined within that range, I don't like the look of it, so close to New York open. Missed opportunity two, maybe.

Just before New York, there is another small break but I discount it, with it being so close to New York, a lot of trades anticipate that New York will pullback and go back early. At the end of New York's manipulation hour, there is a pull back, with several points I like, its moving away from London 'POC' it has touched a round number, it is half the range of London (premium value 50% area) it is a 'Dark Cloud', an excellent, reliable short signal, small bottom wick, and a good increase in volume, over average and delta.

It also, more importantly, lining up with a major break of Friday low, pulling back to that round number is also what 'SMC' type language classifies as the breaker block of that Friday low and is matching, lining up with a fair value gap as the breaking candle or, ICT 'the pissing UNICORN setup - shut the fuck up'

The decisions I have with TP and stop loss, stop loss above the high - just slightly over 100 pip away. The ADR 16000/6 (can't believe I'm typing 16000) = 2666 | 266.6 pips puts it lower than low from last week or very close. 1.25% fib I'm not really interested in. I decided to go with straight forward 2:1 200 pip no partial, hopefully over within an hour. (it was two candles - 30 minutes)

You, could quite easily from here target the next round number as a take profit, if it doesn't get there tonight, it will be early tomorrow. (500 pips)

(It smashes through the next 500 in 5 candles) Opportunity missed 3

Do, I dwell on the opportunities missed, could have finished the day with a lot more pips? No, it's more than enough for me, It's Monday, 200 pips up, dodged all the risk, at risk for 30 minutes, I've watched Netflix, no stress, set a couple of alerts, and read the internet, job done - kept to my rules

Final two images, are start of trade and trade history

Gold Future Day Chart

I use investing.com, but TradingView has several options

https://uk.investing.com/commodities...treaming-chart

Start of Yesterday, there was a gap. I've been tracking this for a few years. I can't say every single time without fail, but in those years, I can't remember seeing a day when gold spot hasn't finished the day in the direction of gold futures gap. It might still be a minor doji, inside day, but it will finish bearish if the futures gap is down and bearish.

If you're not sure what a gap is, you're best reading on investing.com or investipedia or ask ChatGPT, it's excellent for answers to these types of questions, better than me.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp

ChatGPT - gap explanation.

Question: concisely explain a gap in price candle?

A gap in a price candle refers to a visible space between two consecutive candles on a chart where no trading occurred. It happens when the opening price of a new candle is significantly higher or lower than the closing price of the previous one.
In short:

1. Up gap (gap up): The new candle opens above the prior candle’s high.
2. Down gap (gap down): The new candle opens below the prior candle’s low.

Gaps usually occur due to overnight news, earnings, or market sentiment changes between trading sessions, and they represent a sudden shift in supply and demand.

It's excellent for education


Images - Futures Day investing chart (Monday Open) & the new day spot price closing candle (Tuesday Open)- The result bearish day

Touch a little bit of hesitancy, it comes from fear, but I won't be discussing fear. (later post)

I'll use an example of a trade that was nearly a trade here; some of this might sound a bit on the obvious side. Everyone who suffers from hesitancy they are aware of this, and it's the awareness that causes the hesitation.

Will also touch on FVG a little bit.

FVG is a good name, it's a short, catchy abbreviation, and I use the name a lot. It's a lot easier than Wykcoff version. Michael Huddleston has either been in sales or marketing; he's good at it, and is not a criticism.

FVG – Essentially Wyckoffian inefficiencies or imbalances in price.
Order Blocks – Wyckoff composite operator footprints (the last buy or sell before a move).
Liquidity Sweep – Wyckoff spring or upthrust.

If anyone should have the recognition, it's Richard Wycoff, but it's not a shiny new supercar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wyckoff?

1. Fib 0.35 it's 35% of the leg down, close to 38% and limit orders will be here, I don't know how many.
2. A Break
3. FVG's all bearish down - that implies lots of momentum, selling power.
4. Asia's 'Point of control' and a piercing line candle, and then an engulfing, finishes as Dark Cloud
5. Volume

The fib is not really a rule, because at any stage from any timeframe, you are going to be close to a retracement fib value because of the fractal nature, but the 15min - 1hr is used a lot, I know sell orders will be here. Bears haven't finished jumping out the window just yet. FVG, I do take note of. I don't like going against this. The indicator I use also shows 4-hour FVG. I have opacity on low, and it extends two days' worth of candles. I use it like a 200 EMA, lots of mild pink, I'm looking down only. I've shortened the extent and increased the opacity to see it as a hot pink (magenta). The candle and volume were a signal to go; I don't like piercing lines, and I don't find them reliable and they are a medium probability. The previous candle volume was up, but unfortunately closed under the long-term volume average. That, in combination with the 'POC' and New York 'POC' being marginally above it, I didn't take. The next engulfing, I didn't take, although over the POC, the volume had dropped so much, the line isn't drawn, it's black. The dark cloud with the volume and trend drops further.

If this had been above the POC, I would have taken the trade, even though my gut instinct is that it will fail. Say if I did take the trade and it fails - 100pip loss. Next trade I hesitate and don't take, that would have been a win +200pip, my loss is cancelled and 100 pip up, but now because I didn't take I'm still 100 down, I take the next frustrated with the last two, start to lose my rhythm, skips a few steps, open before candle close because I'm chasing the day and it's another loss. Next trade, I am really going to hesitate, it's the crescendo events that hesitancy causes, we're taught patience is good, cut losses early but interference will ultimately lead to death by a thousand cuts.

Hesitant usually comes from doubt/lack of trust/fear after a painful loss - if you take it down to root cause, the truthful why it fails, it is usually, stop in the wrong place, position sizing wrong, over risk, which has other root causes too, usually greed or pointing to other psychological traits. Consequently, hesitancy is usually a marker of other psychological issues and isn't the cause itself. Also, a lack of rules can cause it because you don't have structure, and you're guessing, which is the usual first year, you don't really know what you're doing.

Simulator time helps with this; it builds confidence, you spot problems, add rules where required, and it's the stats from testing you have to trust. If you don't have rules or stats, then you have nothing to trust, and it is no wonder you are cautious and hesitant. It is also the result of impatient or impulsive type behaviour, and hesitancy is the end result of that damage. If you fix the cause, with time, hesitancy repairs itself.

If you have stats you have to trust, it's wasting all that time you spent testing, and also like the roulette wheel defect (see win rate post#16), you have to let the stats play out, you have to roll the dice.

“Never let the fear of striking out keep you from playing the game.”
– Babe Ruth

Easier said than done, but I think trading is closest to professional sports or performance sports; To win, you have to swing!

Turned a lot of the clutter off to show a breaker block, chart image below (Unicorn Setup).

These are the money makers, really easy to spot and trade.


Also, a good time to demonstrate FOMO - fear of missing out. That downwards move late Monday, the two red hammers, after the break. That is prime temptation, punch me in the face. There is and always will be a pullback in play. If there isn't, then wait for the next! There is a constant, endless supply of pips, and unless you trade 24-7, never sleep or have the most efficient, accurate EA, you will never have it all. Decide what is enough for you and celebrate the win! Actually, no, don't celebrate, shrug and say "whatevs", win or lose is the same outcome, it's a trade, nothing more, your emotional attachment to money is the real enemy.

You would have to get out of bed at midnight (UK time) to trade this pullback, but still, it's a pullback after the drop. Almost back to the starting point and no pips lost. The pip, money missed, gutted feeling, are the raw human emotions of greed and regret. With time, you will have more than you know what to do with anyway, and you just don't care. Set a profit, stop trading, spend the money, and enjoy life.

Luckily, I've never struggled with greed, I have zero emotional attachment to money, couldn't care less, probably why I ended up bankrupt, and homeless, but still zero attachment to money... However, I do use a pip as my currency, and talk in pips, bank for pips, and weekly target of pips. I try and remove the money aspect; it's hard to really remove the money aspect completely because money is important, but I still try to limit the emotion to it.

For breaker block you have mark a high or low, and its this break. The same way you define a break earlier (page 1) but they are internal breaks. This is a market structure shift, which really should be performed on the time frame above that you are intending to trade. 3 or 4 times higher, so, if the 15 minute, you want to mark structure on the 1 hr chart. This was a CHoCH for the 1 hr. You mark the last lowest candle before the break and you can draw a rectangle as a zone, extend it until price breaks through it and wait for a pullback, back into the zone. Mark a 50% and then divide into another 50%. You are interested in between 25-50%. Stop loss, above the zone, Take profit, Fib all the way to 125% -200% extensions, with partials. You can chart hop, looking for these and forget all the intraday rubbish - these are high probability moves, a lot of traders are looking for these.

I'm going to link a video and an indicator, if you have no knowledge of this at all, you need to study it, at least to a level of basic understanding.

This video is nearly 5 hrs and free, its well put together, no time wasting, no bullshit but its a hard subject to concentrate without thinking of sheep and sleep. It needs to be broken into chunks, 20/30 min chunks. it's impossible to watch all at once.



Market structure starts at 15.52 minutes

Inbalance (FVG) - 38 minutes

Breaker block 3:33

Inducements 1:56

The indicator is TradingView, seeing sometimes helps understand.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/C...s-SMC-LuxAlgo/

SMC inducement - Often when you first read pullback types methods, your first thought will be: How do you know the move is finished? If there is always a pullback in play, there will be a pullback of the pullback. It may be small but there will at some stage be a small pullback; The ABC pattern.

This should keep you safe. You wait for the first pullback to happen, mark a line, similar to marking a line for a break, instead of a break being a close, a wick is enough to validate this inducement check.

This method is essentially a Wyckoff spring, liquidity sweep. To follow these rules exactly, no inducement, then you don't trade. You keep moving this line along the trend until this inducement occurs. If you exclusively trade gold, this may be a week on Tuesday.

I do not always check for this; this is what POC is doing for me, and is how and why I use 'POC'.

This can be used on any time frame and is one the reason for markets ranging, waiting for the higher time frame to complete an ABC pattern (see last image of recent 8hr XAUUSD Chart) Also, you can see Daily imbalance FVG at play on this chart

Most of early pullback type loss mistakes are due to trading the pullback of a pullback and confusion, it's where simulation and training time should be used, the rewards are from training time. It feels obvious now but I remember at times getting confused and to make it easier spent hours looking for an indicator. Spend this time in the simulator instead. The rewards from training are immense - concentrate all your available time and efforts on training. If you draw a chart with axis 1. Account balance $ axis 2. Your training hours - The chart will be exponential and parabolic.

The video above goes through this in a lot more detail than this. It's a good video and I have watched it several times, I think 4 times in total, it helps with insomnia .

Imbalance (FVG)

The video above (post#29) covers the subject in detail, with training type exercises.

Brief Description: The common mistakes made with imbalance marking are ignoring overlapping wicks, or where price has returned. The video exercises go through this in detail; examples you see at times are technically not a gap. Video (33 minutes)

The smaller the time frame you go with these, the less reliable they become. I use these in a trend reversal (see image), after a break, if the candle is a large bullish/bearish candle, there will be a pullback of 3 or so candles. I wait for the second candle to give an imbalance and then wait for 3/4 candle to tap into the zone, and then it's safe to trade - I hate draw-down, my psychology hates it.

The principles of imbalance are a zone where an impulse move has left a price zone unfilled. The unfilled zone is a forensic clue, observed when the modern market moves from algorithmic type inter-bank pricing, they generate large numbers of orders to move in a direction, and will return to close these orders before reversing to continue onwards. Think of it like a relay race, handing the baton, if you have access to tick charts or the 1 minute chart, sometimes with low volatility it is noticeable and looks like a computer pattern, it's not human, we don't trade like that.

The theory being, if a zone is unfilled, price wants to return to close these open orders. There is price averaging at work here too but it's not algorithmic in nature and will touch on that another time.

I use the 4hr FVG as a direction check, I go in the direction of these gaps. (Probably easier to use a moving average)

15 minute as the tap into description above, I don't really go lower than 15 minute, they become too frequent but if you mark 15 minute gap, drop to 5 minute and use the 15 zone, you should be good.

The daily FVG / Weekly FVG, the futures market will respond to these, after profit taking, retracement, the first Daily inbalance gap prices touches - it will respond.

4hr Candle Open Times

With the way forex brokers across the world lease server space for data feeds and how these servers are based in different time zones. There is a visible difference in the 4hr chart candles and some other candle times. The opening times of these 4 hour candle are different. The problem depends on your time zone, in relation to your data server and in relation to New York time.

My explanation makes it sound complicated but it is not the solution is, either:

a. Don't give a shit.
b. Use Investing.com for your 4hr charts.

Servers, although connected in a way to to the inter-bank they are not and they are separate. For a server, time is important; they have a time server, linked to either an atomic time source or a GPS antenna, getting the accurate time from the GPS network's atomic clock.

To an outsider, first response is why don't all servers use UTC? I would promote you right there on the spot, give you a salary raise.


As an example, from my system:


From a UK Data Server (GMT), I have these 4-hour candle open times:

02:00, 06:00, 10:00, 14:00, 18:00, 22:00

Converting to New York Time

01:00, 05:00, 09:00, 13:00, 17:00, 21:00


For a European Data Server (UTC+1), I have these 4-hour open times:

03:00, 07:00, 11:00, 15:00, 19:00, 23:00

Converting to New York Time

02:00, 06:00, 10:00, 14:00, 18:00, 22:00


For the US Data Server (UTC+4), I have these 4-hour times:

05:00, 09:00, 13:00, 17:00, 21:00, 01:00

Converting to New York Time:

00:00, 04:00, 08:00, 12:00, 16:00, 20:00,


I prefer investing.com as a source because they are aligned with New York midnight open (next post #33). If you were a conspiracist, then "brokers do this on purpose". However, it is due to the expense. I have worked in this industry before, it's always due to cost reduction. MBA executives don't care about technical details like this and its ramifications. They rent the cheapest, most cost effective server. Depending on bandwidth as the limiting factor and maybe latency, they use in as many customer timezones as possible until the customers complain so much and they start to take their business elsewhere. Renting more server space is always the last resort.

But investing.com is by far the most reliable. The examples below are first US server, second GMT, last Europe. The difference is subtle, wicks and dojis are the most affected, because these are reversal patterns, I don't give a shit, is not the way to go!

New York Midnight

I mark the price level at New York midnight on my chart. For my timezone, that is 5 am and twice a year, 4 am. Around 6-7 am my time (01:00-0200 NY time), the price will turn and start moving towards this level. I will quite often scalp towards it or use it as further confluence for the direction of my trade and modify my take profit to be in line with it.

It doesn't always run for this; if there is a strong trend, it's ignored. I'll include a few examples in the next couple of days.

The Reason ( Source: ChatGPT)

The 24-hour nature of gold trading

Gold (XAU/USD) trades 24 hours a day through the global over-the-counter (OTC) interbank market and major exchanges (COMEX, LBMA, Shanghai Gold Exchange, etc.). The price you see at any given time — the spot price — is effectively the most recent global consensus between large liquidity providers, market makers, and institutional traders.

Key trading sessions: U.S. Eastern Standard Time.

1. New York: 08:00-17:00
2. Asia (Tokyo/Singapore/Hong Kong): 17:00-0100
3. Europe/London: 02:00-11:00

Importance of New York midnight

When it’s midnight in New York, the US trading desks are mostly closed, and the Asia session is dominant.

At this point:

1. Liquidity thins out (fewer interbank quotes and market makers).
2. Price becomes more range-bound, but moves can be sharper if Asian flows or central bank actions hit the market (less depth = bigger jumps).
3. The spot price during this window often represents a carry-over of New York settlement sentiment, particularly COMEX futures closing levels.

Essentially,the “New York midnight price” becomes the anchor that Asian markets trade around until London liquidity comes in.

How Europe/London open reshapes price

When London opens (around 02–03 a.m. EST):

1. Liquidity surges — London is the global hub for physical gold trading (LBMA) and interbank OTC settlement.
2. European banks (Barclays, UBS, Deutsche Bank, etc.) begin quoting two-way prices.
3. The spot price typically adjusts toward where interbank fair value is established — this can mean:
   1. Tightening spreads (e.g., from $0.50 to $0.10 wide)
   2. Price reversion to align with COMEX futures' implied value
   3. Directional moves based on overnight sentiment (USD strength, yields, risk appetite)

   
   

Thus, the London open often “resets” gold’s global reference price, as physical demand, ETF orders, and bank flows converge.

How the price moves toward that value (interbank mechanism)

Gold’s interbank price evolves through a network of quotes and arbitrage relationships:

1. Spot vs. Futures Arbitrage
   Market makers keep the COMEX futures price and spot OTC price aligned via swaps (using gold forwards, lease rates, and USD funding costs).
   If COMEX trades at a premium, arbitrageurs sell futures and buy spot until the spread normalizes.
2. Regional Arbitrage
   1. London OTC price (LBMA) vs. Shanghai Gold Exchange (CNY gold)
   2. London vs. New York (COMEX)
      Traders use USD/CNY or EUR/USD conversions and shipping costs to align regional markets.

3. Liquidity Migration
   As trading moves westward (Asia → Europe → US), the deepest liquidity center dictates the reference price.
   So between New York midnight and London open, gold’s price gravitates toward where the next major liquidity window will set its mark — the London fix.

Good examples this morning:

 

1. Parabolic volume distribution displays the tops and the volume from that moment.
2. Bulls walk up the stairs.
3. 4-Hour Imbalance (FVG) and direction.
4. The open from Asia session likes to tap and touch New York session's volume (0.65 fib area).
5. When price leaves and moves away from a 'POC' with volume and candle pattern to confirm you are safe to trade with high probability.
6. Inducement lines - ABC to corrective waves.
7. Previous Day high, will be the deciding factor here: OHLC trading

Also, there are many different ways; supertrend is also on that chart (dark yellow broken line). Simply, with an additional moving average, when trending, the same results can be obtained... The moving average is faint and a dotted line.

They are all accomplishing the same thing; mine is tailored for my lifestyle and psychology.

It's simulator/training time that will get you here, not the system.

Example of how futures is the deciding factor with market direction, spot follows, and futures lead.


First image is 4-hour futures, with a gap and how price has filled that level and reversed.

Second image is spot 4-hour, because of timings and 4-hour candle open times it will not look the same but there is no gap.

Example of why to be careful near the Previous Daily High

1. There was a break, it is the third 'bullish' break, and care is required around these areas. The fib number is 2.09, that's a common end for the 5th wave from 'Elliot theory' (161.8% - 200%). It is above the 'POC' from London and with. 2. Volume is very close to being a buy signal. This is one of the reasons I coded an indicator for candle patterns. They are hard to judge, and I used to get these wrong and call as engulfing, but they are not. It's slightly higher than the previous candle close. If the candle size were bigger, I would classify it as a kicker. Kickers that are not larger than the recent average candle size are usually manipulation candles, a correction to get a higher price before moving down.

This is also the New York open candle 8am EST, not the CME open (8:20), but this is an example of why, during the first hour from the open, it's best to avoid trading. At the end of the hour, mark the first hour's high & low and wait for the break. This is the reason I mark the sessions first hour Green / Blue / Red | Asia / New York / London.

Either magnify your chart size to check the candle really does engulf the close price, or use inducement, I've marked the inducement in white

Round Numbers (Whole numbers)

By this we mean 4000.00, 3950.00, 3980.00, 3980.50, 3980.10

This is a feature from humans trading, a few possible reasons, the 'old methods' from before charts have been carried over into modern institutional trader habits and training: Setting limit orders at complete numbers. Modern accounting, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly & yearly targets, profits terminate at these round numbers.

This has been a feature of human trading, for I imagine, all of the time that trading has existed. The first video I posted on post(#4), the Billion dollar day, with no charts on display, round numbers were used. When they shout numbers across the trading desk, they're not shouting buy at '4983.78'

I mark the 500pip distance on gold or $5, values under this are worth marking, 200 pip, and 100 pip. I don't mark because of clutter and how it clashes with a lot of lines and the session boxes and 'POC'.

There are several ways to trade. You can hedge from value to value, set up alerts and open orders in both directions, and hedge, close orders as you go. If your personality can handle this, then you have very little to do, but I don't think gold is suitable, or you need huge capital for the draw-down.

Gold does like to move from 500 to 500. In a really strong uptrend this year, I have taken trades after the break of the 500. There will be a wick that touches the 500 line it has just broken. I trade from that candle and target the next 500. It is a really easy trade if you can get good at it, handle the win rate. It's a strong contender for a strategy alongside a full-time job. It's easy to set alerts, not too frequent, it's simple, low stress, low time, and a profitable strategy. The R:R is excellent with these, but it can take a few days and maybe over a weekend (In the UK, this may qualify it for capital gains tax). If you see it do this in a session, it's probably going in that direction.

I mainly use round number as Confluence, further trust in my trade. Most of the time, I adjust profits to this, if it's passing a round number on route and if it will be an all-time high (ATH), this will be my target or partial. If it's not at an ATH, and it is leaving a round number with Confluence, I will set my take profit as the next 500. I very rarely use limit orders as I most often wait for confirmation.

The image attached, in the middle, slightly off center, where it touches a level several times. That is position averaging, order placed, brought back, another order, brought back again. It will be 3 times and then allowed to move - It's a marker from when Whale shorts gold.

The last image shows 3 easy winning trades, 2 losses, but profits will be huge from R:R

On education that will be last for this week. I'll post examples of topics if I see anything, a losing trade, as many losing trades as possible, I will show.

The weekend starting on the subject of fear, and then more education topics next Week:

1. Equal High, equal low trading.
2. The number 3 in trading.
4. Position averaging.
5. Market Sessions.
6. News and trading.

This is what I have planned so far and will not be the last week; there will be more.

Checklists & Procedures (continues on page 3, post 42)

As I'm getting ready to take a trade, I start to tell the story. like how a pilot would scan his/her instruments, read out minimums. I do the same trading.

Good Points - Major News yesterday, 'FOMC' rates cut, fundamentally, gold should go up*. There is a break, left the Asia session high range, volume has increased, it's above the POC, above the open, bottom of the previous day low range, near 2-week low, it's on a round number, possible position averaging. It started from an equal low. Bad points - the highest volume candle is above, it left Asia low range too, before the high, 4-hour FVG are bearish, London is about to open, and they rarely buy gold.

This is not out loud, I'm not talking to myself, well maybe a little. Go through your checklist; it leaves you less to do. I'm waiting for a final confirmation, waiting for volume, volume delta, and candle pattern, and preferably a bullish FVG, to cancel the 4-hour bearish FVG. However, with the round number, I'm close to pulling the trigger, and I'm looking for Confluence, which I think I'm close to getting, but I also don't want to shoot myself in the foot. I and we all make better decisions when we're not rushing.

If it doesn't happen, I wait, keep adjusting, but be careful of bias. You have to reset that picture sometimes. Impatient, impulsive individuals, you want to get in, and you go looking for a reason to change the story, or you're disappointed with the ending and skip the checklist, which can also be from FOMO. You're not prepared and rushing; slow it down, and concentrate with a checklist. Self-Discipline!

I used to have a written checklist with a score; over a minimum score, and trade was allowed.

* There is a lot more to fundamental news than Fed rate cut, US resuming Nuclear testing, tariff negotiations were not an end, a mild relief. Fed were 'dovish'. I was expecting gold to go up is the short non boring no tooth pick for eyes required fundamental story.

How to Trade News (more to follow next week)

1. Supertrend, use if getting confused with direction.
2. New York 'POC'.
3. New York Session Box, low and high range from the first hour of trading.
4. FOMC news, first 15-minute candle.
5. Entry.
6. 4-hour imbalance FVG.

If you're struggling to identify a break or making mistakes with market structure, use 'supertrend'. Period 9, Multiplier 2.8, if option for source HL2 or median, type exponential.

Wait for the first 15-minute candle to close, either stay on 15-minute or drop to 5-minute. Wait for a pullback or doji. Doji on the 15-minute is what I wait for, or a small spinning top. There is another doji, 3 candles away, and that would be the first 5-minute pullback.

Enter on the close of that doji/spinning top candle, if it gives a FVG, which it does, and in the direction of the FVG and 4-hour FVG. Also, with 'supertrend' direction (if you're using it). See how that first candle after the news went for the New York volume 'POC' and the break of the New York session low and the round number. Target from News, the next round number, and go aggressive with stops, breakeven 33% of the way there, take partial to cover your initial risk amount.