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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,561
  • Oct 17, 2025 3:16pm Oct 17, 2025 3:16pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} You guys said my name too many times, now I have to post! But yeah people are just people... the masses will jump from one popular strategy to the next hoping they strike gold. At one point in time on FF there were soo many VSA/volume threads, also on babypips too. Davit came around and all these weekly pivot threads started popping up, then it was ICT {image}
Hi nice to see you againĦĦĦĦ
Now is all ICT everywhere it does not matter if you look ff or any youtube video the soon as you put trading all this ICT staff comes up.

I had a look at it but did not like it, specially is nothing new, the guy is just a marketing genius.

I always thought that sing volume was the way to go I just did not know how to read it.

I was hook to learning volume since I read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator
Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,562
  • Oct 18, 2025 9:16pm Oct 18, 2025 9:16pm
Speaking of VSA, look at weekly of NQ and ES. Volume increasing on an inside bar/harami set up. Looks like shes about to blow.

Held these into the weekend
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  • #36,563
  • Oct 19, 2025 5:15pm Oct 19, 2025 5:15pm
just made a g Note on that gap up, starting the week with another 1 pound in the account
  • #36,564
  • Oct 20, 2025 2:52pm Oct 20, 2025 2:52pm
Quoting Frag8383
.. I for instance struggle for a long time trying to understand with all the bars definitions and so on and I have come to terms that I don’t give a s.......... about definitions I only care is about where is the volume and that has made my trading a lot simpler and more focused instead pf trying to find every single pattern...(Emphasis added)
A lot of people, myself included, make this mistake and find themselves frustrated and confused. In truth, playing the nomenclature game obscures the fact that the most important things are the volume/price concepts that underlie everything.

For example,

One does not need to be able to distinguish between Stopping Volume and Hidden Professional Buying. One only needs to see that there has been Ultra high volume on a DOWN Interval that closed off its lows and the next bar is UP. Seeking that alerts you that the supply/demand dynamic has changed - Demand entered on the DOWN bar. Which is one of the basic principles of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) : Strength when it appears, usually appears on DOWN bars.

Or for example,

One does not need to be able to distinguish between a No Demand interval and an Up Thrust (in the form of No Demand) interval. Generally speaking, both are UP bars on volume less than the previous two intervals. It is the decreasing volume as price moves UP that alerts us to the lack of professional interest in upside price movement. And if this price/volume action occurs in the right place, this lack of interest in upside price movement likely means an interest in movement in the opposite direction. That is to say, if the professionals aren't bullish, they're probably bearish.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,565
  • Oct 20, 2025 4:01pm Oct 20, 2025 4:01pm
Speaking of No Demand, there were a lot of symbols showing a lack of conviction today. The S&P 500 ETF is one, altho the spread is not as narrow as I'd like and price has cleared short-term resistance:
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  • #36,566
  • Edited 6:04pm Oct 20, 2025 5:23pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting Macallik
Speaking of No Demand, there were a lot of symbols showing a lack of conviction today. The S&P 500 ETF is one, altho the spread is not as narrow as I'd like and price has cleared short-term resistance: {image}
Did you notice the ND on Oct 6th?

I'm still a firm believer that price can reverse just as easily on low volume as it can on climatic volume.

But the Oct 6th bar it's into fresh new ground, the body of the Oct 6th bar is above the close of the previous two bars. It still needs to wait and see if price reacts, which it did on that 4 days later with the wide spread down bar. I would be short off today's low volume! My hard stop would be something like 678 or 679 tp would be something like 4:1 or 5:1.

The trade may not work, but VSA allows us relatively tight stops which we can squeeze out high RR trades. Risk 0.5% to make 2.0-2.5%, yes please!
  • #36,567
  • Oct 20, 2025 7:53pm Oct 20, 2025 7:53pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Did you notice the ND on Oct 6th?
Not that I can recall. I have struggled trying to pick tops w/ VSA frequently, so I've probably overcompensated and look for excessive confirmation at times as a result.

Quoting Anotan
{quote}I would be short off today's low volume! My hard stop would be something like 678 or 679 tp would be something like 4:1 or 5:1. The trade may not work, but VSA allows us relatively tight stops which we can squeeze out high RR trades. Risk 0.5% to make 2.0-2.5%, yes please!
I'm hoping there's not a huge gap lower tomorrow or anything. I will look to get involved if price breaks beyond the lows of today.

I did enter one trade today but it was 1/5 my normal size. (I drew the channel after-the-fact and now realize price will have to become oversold in order to maximize my TP):
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In addition to the S&P 500, tomorrow I will be stalking WPM as an exposure to precious metals:
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  • #36,568
  • Oct 21, 2025 5:23am Oct 21, 2025 5:23am
Tom was really big into trend channels, I think they should have a place in your toolbox. But I do favor VZA fibs over trendlines.

Down channel find the highest high then the next higher low for your upper lines and then find the lowest price between the highest high and the next lowest high. We had some big volume come in on Oct 16th and price fell another 95 pips off the buying!

The safest play would've been to buy off the 50% of the channel after seeing the bounce off the lows, but you have to decide for yourself which type of trader you are. You can take the less safe entries (more losses) which allow small stops, or you can take the safer entry (less losses) with the larger stops.
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  • #36,569
  • Oct 21, 2025 7:59am Oct 21, 2025 7:59am
Quoting Macallik
In addition to the S&P 500, tomorrow I will be stalking WPM as an exposure to precious metals: {image}
Frustrating that I didn't get in at the close, but at least my analysis was spot on:
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Looks like precious metals are breaking down across the board due to the overnight session. Will see if there's an opportunity to fade a mid-day rally of a stock w/ solid exposure.
  • #36,570
  • Oct 21, 2025 9:07am Oct 21, 2025 9:07am
Jumped in MS and MSTR and leveraged to the tits on S&P 500. Don't really have much gunpowder left for anything else. My hope is that the Gold sell-off leads to volatility across the markets at this point.

SPY isn't helping. Showing a lack of conviction/volume to the downside so far:
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FWIW, the attempted rallies (thus far) have been even more tepid, but nothing screams breakdown so far.
  • #36,571
  • Oct 21, 2025 12:44pm Oct 21, 2025 12:44pm
Quoting Anotan
Tom was really big into trend channels, I think they should have a place in your toolbox. But I do favor VZA fibs over trendlines.(Emphasis added)
Agreed. I find it hard to determine which high and subsequent low to use for a trend channel. That is why I prefer the Trigger Matrix concept. It' far simpler to find the highest volume interval and place a fib on that to create the playing field. In addition to the 0, 50, and 100 percent levels, I include 25 and 75 percent. This is in part due to Tom's use of quarters for his channels.

And I think Gavin would agree too. Tradeguider doesn't really teach channels anymore. It's all about the Trigger Matrix these days. Accordingly, this is why VZA and Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) are a distinction without a difference.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,572
  • Oct 21, 2025 4:51pm Oct 21, 2025 4:51pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Tradeguider doesn't really teach channels anymore. It's all about the Trigger Matrix these days. Accordingly, this is why VZA and Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) are a distinction without a difference.
Interesting. I've been going the opposite route because of Gary Dayton. He really leans on structuring the markets w/ the trend channels. OTOH, David Weis (and Jako McPorker on YT) rely more heavily on simple price ranges/support + resistance, but I struggle with it... I feel like you have to wait and react to overbought/oversold price action whereas a channel lets me anticipate it a bit more.
  • #36,573
  • Oct 24, 2025 4:11am Oct 24, 2025 4:11am
Hello everyone, I would like your input on the chart below.

Here we have the 1H micro E-mini S&P 500 futures.

The yellow line was drawn as a Trigger Line on the close of the UHV down bar marked with A that sent the market sideways.

At nr. 1, there are several down bars closing off their lows on high volume, suggesting stopping volume.
The next day, the market reacts to those bars by going up (bar nr. 2) and closes above the TL. This is followed by a pin bar on very high volume (bar nr.3). I see this bar as a test, and given that the volume is high, it shows us that the supply is present.

This is followed by another pin bar but with less volume (bar nr. 4).
If the test had been successful, one would expect an immediate and a strong up move. The high volume indicates that the supply is still present. But instead of shaking out the sellers, the market continues up slowly. On lower TFs, you could see that the sellers were active, albeit not enough to push the price down. I've seen this setup over and over again, can't figure out how to trade it to my advantage.

On the one hand, the test is showing us that the supply is present, making long positions unattractive. On the other hand, after the presumed failed test, the sellers are not showing up in force and the market drifts up slowly. Could this be some form of supply absorption?
Maybe I'm interpreting this whole thing wrong, and the bar nr.3 was shaking the sellers out and the nr. 4 was the test.
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  • #36,574
  • Oct 24, 2025 10:35am Oct 24, 2025 10:35am
Good analysis and we are having the strong move you hypothesized as a possibility.

From my (hindsight) perspective after getting stopped out of a few shorts:
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  1. Price shows intent in the pre-market before hitting a key level (Resistance on 9/22 & Support from 10/1 - 10/8)
  2. Markets want to go higher but potential supply is high. The markets need to check for supply by testing some more, and heading lower if there's still supply
  3. Price retested and no new supply came out. It's the bulls market to lose so let's see how they react
  4. Closed on the high, but a decrease in volume and spread. Not a great response to the test so perhaps the bears might wrestle some control back. The markets need to check for supply bears by testing some more, and heading lower if they're present.
  5. This bar retraces initially yet closes well above the prior close. Strong up bar as a clear sign of strength. Drilling down, the 15m shows supply present -> supply tested -> strong response). The bears didn't show up and the bulls showed some conviction
  6. The bulls are in the driver's seat after the last bar but in response, this bar went marginally higher before closing as a down bar. It might need to test for supply again? 15m shows clustering of closes and a lack of conviction.

Hindsight tells me the closing bar is accumulation but today's strength is admittedly coloring my perspective. TBH I struggle with whether the closing bar of the day tells a VSA story, or if it is just a sign of people flattening positions into the close and should be mostly disregarded (similar to how some VSA traders discount spikes in a contract's volume during the expiration/rollover period).

  • #36,575
  • Oct 28, 2025 9:52pm Oct 28, 2025 9:52pm
S&P 500 feels like it is in one of those "remaining irrational until most people are insolvent" moods. I don't want to talk beyond the charts too much but as of the 1st of the month, governmental food assistance programs will be cut for 40 million people. 42% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck as is, and the economy is basically treading water with AI as a deflating lifejacket in spite of being a civilization-changing technology. We are flying blind w/o economic data due to the shutdown but things were looking shaky at best prior to the shutdown.

Back to the markets themselves, NVDA, the mostly heavily weighted stock in the entire index was up a whopping 5% today. The second mostly heavily weighted stock was up 2% (MSFT). These two stock account for +15% of the S&P 500's price action so you'd think that it led to a very bullish day, but instead the markets ended up only 0.27%, and from a VSA perspective the close was off its highs and on below average volume. There's no conviction in higher prices IMO.

Digging into VSA more, today is potentially a No Demand day (we'll see if there's confirmation). The one thing that is throwing me off is the lack of recent distribution on the Daily or shorter timeframes. With that said, there is supply present on the weekly having supply that wasn't properly accounted for on Oct 6th and Oct 13th (aka the markets didn't test it away and get the all clear). It could be that markets are running the market up on light volume to rope-a-dope.

Lastly (and IMO most convincingly) there are trend channels on the long-term, medium-term and short-term that are all overbought as of today's price action. I feel like I'm doing a disservice to my account if I am not actively looking for weakness in spite of last week's stop outs.
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  • #36,576
  • Oct 29, 2025 2:54am Oct 29, 2025 2:54am
Quoting Macallik
S&P 500 feels like it is in one of those "remaining irrational until most people are insolvent" moods. I don't want to talk beyond the charts too much but as of the 1st of the month, governmental food assistance programs will be cut for 40 million people. 42% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck as is, and the economy is basically treading water with AI as a deflating lifejacket in spite of being a civilization-changing technology. We...
There is some potential for weakness, if you take it, it's better to treat it as a scalp with a small position. Just to add a little padding to your account.

Its still an up trend and we haven't see any reaction to the weakness. At this point you would be trading and hoping that price will react to weakness. Which we know the market doesn't always respond to strength/weakness.

But yeah, it's gloomy here in the US.
  • #36,577
  • Edited 10:08am Oct 29, 2025 9:09am | Edited 10:08am
Yeah good advice as always Anotan. I'll steer clear of the SPY ETF for the time being and focus on plays under-performing the markets and showing weakness. I'll also reduce my size until there's more confirmation
  • #36,578
  • Oct 29, 2025 1:54pm Oct 29, 2025 1:54pm
In three positions after the afternoon breakdown:
Might get stopped out of this
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Looking slightly better
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Looking good the best so far
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Also got stopped out of TLT last week and looking to get back in when the dust settles:
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  • #36,579
  • Oct 29, 2025 4:21pm Oct 29, 2025 4:21pm
Quoting Macallik
In three positions after the afternoon breakdown: Might get stopped out of this {image} Looking slightly better {image} Looking good the best so far {image} Also got stopped out of TLT last week and looking to get back in when the dust settles: {image}
Yeah man being stopped out happens, I'm out and about but otherwise I'd post charts.

But I had an eurcad taken out at BE and I was stopped out for a loss on usdcad during fomc. If you're trading for more than 1:1 RR, you'll come to the realization that losses dont mean much.
  • #36,580
  • Edited 9:37am Oct 30, 2025 8:54am | Edited 9:37am
Man. I'm so close but coming up short (no pun intended). Analysis was spot on but early or I made errors. All of yesterday's stop outs are profitable and the sole winner was stopped out today lol. With that said, the risk:reward is undeniable so if when I get the timing right... *chef's kiss*

Turns out my RKLB's contingency order was set up incorrectly, so I was stopped out as soon as I entered and didn't realize it til after hours. Here's how it looks now:
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Here's a reduced size stop out from yesterday morning to today:
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With WPM, the correlation between fear and Gold had disappeared but came back this AM which stopped out my WPM trade:
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It makes sense from in retrospect given where Gold was but still stings. Notice some subtle EvR in the second circle at the lows:
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Will lick my wounds and regroup for now. I think I see some opportunities but I have to focus on trading well and not trying to win back my losses.

Also, I will work on some psychology as well because I still need to 'trust' my positions while also being more focused while in position. I realize I'm extremely biased w/ my bar-by-bar analysis when I'm in a position and convince myself to stay in, and when I have size, I convince myself to take risk off the table prematurely.

I'm not the first trader to have these issues and won't be the last. With that said, I am getting more confident w/ structure which (IMO) is key once I pin down timing and internal confidence, it'll be a lot less friction
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