The Swamp | Page 6277 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #125,521
  • Oct 20, 2025 12:26pm Oct 20, 2025 12:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bulls didn't get the close on the 6h.. 1632 looks more probable. to be tested, and maybe break. The short leg on a true b/o down looks like 1534..
am not impressed with both bull and bear! Overall a boring Monday. 1632 level or slightly lower may still offer a bounce before further down. We have cpi this week which will drive the market
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,522
  • Oct 20, 2025 12:31pm Oct 20, 2025 12:31pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} am not impressed with both bull and bear! Overall a boring Monday. 1632 level or slightly lower may still offer a bounce before further down. We have cpi this week which will drive the market
Here's how a shutdown affects the CPI:

  1. Automatic suspension: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the agency that produces the CPI, will suspend all operations during a typical shutdown. Furloughed staff means data collection, processing, and release stops until funding is restored.
  2. Release delays: The longer a shutdown lasts, the longer the delay for the CPI report and other economic indicators. For example, the September 2025 report was delayed from October 15 to October 24 due to the recent shutdown.
  3. Rescheduled releases: In some cases, furloughed employees are brought back to work on specific reports. This happened in October 2025 for the September CPI data, because the Social Security Administration required the information to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
  4. Impact on data quality: If a shutdown is prolonged, data collection is affected. This can compromise the quality of future reports, as noted during the 2013 shutdown.
  5. Uncertainty for investors: Delayed or missing CPI reports leave investors and policymakers without crucial information to assess inflation trends and economic health, which can lead to market volatility.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,523
  • Oct 20, 2025 12:37pm Oct 20, 2025 12:37pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} am not impressed with both bull and bear! Overall a boring Monday. 1632 level or slightly lower may still offer a bounce before further down. We have cpi this week which will drive the market
Whatever Canada has.. The USA being mostly equal in the world.. The usa should have a higher inflation due too tariffs. Can we trust anything manipulated by suck-asses running the show with a skeleton crew? No!, and that's what's gonna crash markets.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 55 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,524
  • Oct 20, 2025 12:46pm Oct 20, 2025 12:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think North since I still have the larger structure. That can change. I think back above 1686 is for a leg to 1830ish. I was shooting to tp and long 1632x.. Because I think its important, and bears may want to test it. But the shorter return leg could be 1643.. Sometimes they hit exact.
This short leg made it to 1644.. but it bounced once already.. It didn't resume North.. The chain may have broken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 10 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,525
  • Oct 20, 2025 1:38pm Oct 20, 2025 1:38pm
the eu likes 100 pip swings. Friday the high was 1729.. 1629ish may be the 100 down, that fits 1632
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,526
  • Oct 20, 2025 6:10pm Oct 20, 2025 6:10pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} am not impressed with both bull and bear! Overall a boring Monday. 1632 level or slightly lower may still offer a bounce before further down. We have cpi this week which will drive the market
I say 100 pips drop to 1529 area if it can can 1632/29, and hold below sustained.. The day number 1640 below sustained remains bearish. But 1632 can also support pa. It holding and bulls returning is a b/o + 1675 sustained. With its short leg at 1831. 200 up, or 100 down.. If above 1729/38 sustained it likely returns bullish for major players.. the 1729/39 area can resist. We had some long talk on the b/o Friday. Those are now red. Its probably the same situation here if we do not break below 1632/29 sustained for shorts.
The shorts may have the edge since pa is below 1729/38... Shorts may be able to fight the bulls at 1672/75.. It gives some retrace with some R there to limit the s/l pip amount.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,527
  • Oct 20, 2025 6:59pm Oct 20, 2025 6:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I say 100 pips drop to 1529 area if it can can 1632/29, and hold below sustained.. The day number 1640 below sustained remains bearish. But 1632 can also support pa. It holding and bulls returning is a b/o + 1675 sustained. With its short leg at 1831. 200 up, or 100 down.. If above 1729/38 sustained it likely returns bullish for major players.. the 1729/39 area can resist. We had some long talk on the b/o Friday. Those are now red. Its probably the same situation here if we do not break below 1632/29 sustained for shorts. The shorts may...
The low is 1638.. Its not too far off.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,528
  • Oct 20, 2025 7:11pm Oct 20, 2025 7:11pm
bulls have moved away from 1640, and trying to take 1649.. they can take back the bear day levels. above 1640 ( Range neutral 1640/72),, 1649 will expire.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 11 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,529
  • Oct 20, 2025 8:39pm Oct 20, 2025 8:39pm
still in that range area 1640-1672/75.. My ma's still above pa atm..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,530
  • Oct 20, 2025 9:03pm Oct 20, 2025 9:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
still in that range area 1640-1672/75.. My ma's still above pa atm.. {image}
near the bottom of the range and 1632.. There may or not be a pool of bullish orders, and some tp closes of shorts. That helps the bull.. Or a bunch od b/o shorts,, Whatever is there, I assume its a bunch of liquid. That direction reaction unknown.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 8 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,531
  • Oct 20, 2025 9:14pm Oct 20, 2025 9:14pm
if the next h closes above 1664.. this is a likely a rejection. below 1640 more bearish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,532
  • Oct 20, 2025 10:06pm Oct 20, 2025 10:06pm
I see a 1632 handle.. I bought some.
Now I will be wrong,, or have a shot at 1830, with a lot of stuff in the way.
the low I have is 1632.6.. The level i had was 1632.4..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,533
  • Oct 20, 2025 10:17pm Oct 20, 2025 10:17pm
for this to work.. I need to retake 1640.. and 1663x.. A 12h close above 1663x.. But its not looking pretty for me.. the 6h just closed below 1663. Bears are in control still. But 1632 is what I think they wanted.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,534
  • Oct 20, 2025 10:40pm Oct 20, 2025 10:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
for this to work.. I need to retake 1640.. and 1663x.. A 12h close above 1663x.. But its not looking pretty for me.. the 6h just closed below 1663. Bears are in control still. But 1632 is what I think they wanted.
let see if we get a reaction here!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,535
  • Oct 20, 2025 11:08pm Oct 20, 2025 11:08pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} let see if we get a reaction here!
Its just like Friday with all the ma's bullish at 1728.. It fell back to 1632, Now they all are bearish.. Either 153x or 183x if it can pass back to 1729 1738..
last week the month bull structure showed a little weakness,, this is where it happened. 1632, missed 1736
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,536
  • Oct 20, 2025 11:11pm Oct 20, 2025 11:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its just like Friday with all the ma's bullish at 1728.. It fell back to 1632, Now they all are bearish.. Either 153x or 183x if it can pass back to 1729 1738..
sorry Gator my view remains bearish but expecting a bounce before further drop
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,537
  • Oct 20, 2025 11:20pm Oct 20, 2025 11:20pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} sorry Gator my view remains bearish but expecting a bounce before further drop
Don't be sorry.. make money. I have the trump card riding on this, If not I would had held shorts..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,538
  • Oct 20, 2025 11:24pm Oct 20, 2025 11:24pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} sorry Gator my view remains bearish but expecting a bounce before further drop
Bounce wise can be any place to short.. the 63/82 area has merit. But sustained above 1682 looks bullish to me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,539
  • Oct 20, 2025 11:27pm Oct 20, 2025 11:27pm
bears are trying.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 11 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,540
  • Oct 20, 2025 11:39pm Oct 20, 2025 11:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bounce wise can be any place to short.. the 63/82 area has merit. But sustained above 1682 looks bullish to me.
yea if we get a bounce 1680 will be my target then i will see if i get a sell signal
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
16 traders viewing now