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Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

  • #501
  • Oct 19, 2025 4:59pm Oct 19, 2025 4:59pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} The second diagram, to me imho, is pure Wyckoff Theory, which I understand totally. Volume I can see visually on the chart using PA and market timing ( expectation ).


It's easy to get caught up in the minutia ...One really needs to step back and look at the bigger picture
and I mean this on a fractal basis...whether our scalping a 15sec chart trading a 1m 5m or 15m etc.

Are we Balanced or are we Imbalanced ? and know that price will just continually move from one to the other.

How we identify and trade these moves...now thats for another day lol !!

One really doesnt need any of this volume jazz to trade successfully,,,,but I do believe it can give a leg up.
It may go as far as certain personalities need the extra conviction..where others simply dont i.e. Driven

Many ways to trade and I dont profess orderflow etc is the be all to end all. It's simply what works for the individual.
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #502
  • Oct 19, 2025 7:15pm Oct 19, 2025 7:15pm
Rocketship GOLD ! Wow ! 360tick blast off Globex Open

It all aligns...using a Composite Volume profile and add in a session VWAP or Vwap anchored
to FRVP(Fixed Range Volume profile) which in this case is Thurs 820am Comex open..

Why attach vwap and FRVP to thurs open ?

Observe the PA of Fridays NY session...where was the majority of PA ?
It was in Thursdays IB range and last traded price(close) was in Thursdays IB range,,,

The idea of all of this VP jazz etc is to give us data..Sooo it makes sense to draw a VP
to whatever is in the most recent "relative range"

Heres a video from someone whom I have no idea who they are...they produced some of those
documents I posted above.. Stoic...but I dont need to know him to know what he shares is good material..

This video gives great examples of using relevant ranges ,,although he doesnt use that term...Its what he is doing.
And yes it looks like Wyckoff

Inserted Video


And here are the Gold charts with a composite FRVP attached to thurs NY open..the relevant range.

Side note ...with Gold it has been hard to get more than a session or two of data due to its meteoric rise.
Not that is bad really...as normally you will have the Globex to draw from and prev days NY.. But having 2
sessions like THurs and Friday gives us a better look at Value.

Cheers

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #503
  • Oct 20, 2025 6:59am Oct 20, 2025 6:59am
Hello peeps.
Anyone got a vwap chart akin to the one I have on Ninja web?
Or am I way off the mark with you guys and down a different rabbit hole?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #504
  • Oct 20, 2025 10:32am Oct 20, 2025 10:32am
Quoting bluesteele
Rocketship GOLD ! Wow ! 360tick blast off Globex Open It all aligns...using a Composite Volume profile and add in a session VWAP or Vwap anchored to FRVP(Fixed Range Volume profile) which in this case is Thurs 820am Comex open.. Why attach vwap and FRVP to thurs open ? Observe the PA of Fridays NY session...where was the majority of PA ? It was in Thursdays IB range and last traded price(close) was in Thursdays IB range,,, The idea of all of this VP jazz etc is to give us data..Sooo it makes sense to draw a VP to whatever is in the most recent "relative...
Hey, Sir Kev. I marked out the Gold BO. Was the setup valid, or did I miss something?
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  • #505
  • Oct 20, 2025 10:57am Oct 20, 2025 10:57am
Quoting turnip15
Hello peeps. Anyone got a vwap chart akin to the one I have on Ninja web? Or am I way off the mark with you guys and down a different rabbit hole? {image} {image}
Do you mind if i ask, how do you implement roadmap
  • #506
  • Oct 20, 2025 11:31am Oct 20, 2025 11:31am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} It's easy to get caught up in the minutia ...One really needs to step back and look at the bigger picture and I mean this on a fractal basis...whether our scalping a 15sec chart trading a 1m 5m or 15m etc. Are we Balanced or are we Imbalanced ? and know that price will just continually move from one to the other. How we identify and trade these moves...now thats for another day lol !! One really doesnt need any of this volume jazz to trade successfully,,,,but I do believe it can give a leg up. It may go as far as certain personalities...
Sorry, didn't wish to take the thread into another discussion path, just added my own thoughts as the concepts are very similar.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #507
  • Oct 20, 2025 12:52pm Oct 20, 2025 12:52pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Sorry, didn't wish to take the thread into another discussion path, just added my own thoughts as the concepts are very similar.

Oooo contraire Shabs.. feel free to post up.. I think it's important what you brought up... Perhaps my reply wasn't clear lol...

I think having knowledge of Wyckoff and that model is imperative for all trading...and it really is a huge positive for ordeflow trading/ volume etc...

The market moves like the Wyckoff model...and that's that..imo.

So feel free post up anything along those lines...it's all good here...
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #508
  • Oct 20, 2025 4:24pm Oct 20, 2025 4:24pm
Quoting Blanctrader
{quote} Hey, Sir Kev. I marked out the Gold BO. Was the setup valid, or did I miss something? {image}
a successful breakout
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  • #509
  • Oct 20, 2025 6:35pm Oct 20, 2025 6:35pm
Quoting Blanctrader
{quote} a successful breakout {image}
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Hi Blanctrader,,,

What is this purple line I have circled ?

Edit : I am thinking that is the 1SD of vwap attached to Sun Oct 12 6pm Globex open ?
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #510
  • Oct 20, 2025 7:13pm Oct 20, 2025 7:13pm
The A+ Setups with multiple confluences to stack the odds in your favour were that retest
for various reasons..

I am looking at prices behaviour to the open...both at the open and on the retest..
I am looking at how does price behave in Price Discovery ? Think retest of 1SD
I am looking at price retesting Fridays IB range or in other words Fridays IB Distribution.
I am looking at Structure...HHs HLs ...
I am looking at the current days IB the High has not been broken,,the low has not been touched.
I am looking at the Open and the HVN it produced and how price on the retest is hitting that wall.
I am looking at the 1min ioi pattern which can signal a reversal (Al Brooks)

I do and will trade BOs of the IB....but one has to ask themselves..
Where can I put on Risk ?
What are your setups ?
Whats a logical SL and TP? If buying at the top of the IB what am I drawing on to figure out a logical TP ?
Now if you can buy near the IB low within your setup...There is extremely high probability price will take one side or
the other,,,,There is a ton of data on that and the probabilities...

Now when buying the BO of the IB high we have extensions that we can target..0.5x 1x 2x etc as well
as Fib extensions of the IB range....

But again many,,,and I am guilty of this myself,,,,, In fact this is what held me back for years was going for the big swing
targetting big moves...and watching the market take it all back....

Like a Taxi driver....The money is in the meter drop Not the big fare out of town,,,

So yes the IB BO was successful and with Gold thats been very common of late. But this gold market will end
Markets will get tighter. and we have to know how to put size on much smaller moves to make consistent long term dineros

Homeruns arent all that they seem to be... Base hits and the occassional bigger trades...thats the ticket.

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #511
  • Oct 20, 2025 7:33pm Oct 20, 2025 7:33pm
Quoting bluesteele
The A+ Setups with multiple confluences to stack the odds in your favour were that retest for various reasons.. I am looking at prices behaviour to the open...both at the open and on the retest.. I am looking at how does price behave in Price Discovery ? Think retest of 1SD I am looking at price retesting Fridays IB range or in other words Fridays IB Distribution. I am looking at Structure...HHs HLs ... I am looking at the current days IB the High has not been broken,,the low has not been touched. I am looking at the Open and the HVN it produced...

Here's an example from this morning before 930 ES Open.....Fridays IB...

It too had a successful BO of the IB high..But one of the best trade setups was the pullback
Some Confluences
PrevDay Close
50% IB level
NY VWAP 3 distinct bounces off and a dbl bttm pattern
Globex HVN POC VAH

Now that was in the afternoon and past my trading time but an incredible setup..

And the last point which I forgot to mention above is Most Breakouts fail...its a tough gig.
Alot of money to be made in the meter drop day trading..without homeruns.
In fact I would say there is much more to be made never even thinking about breakouts.

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #512
  • Oct 20, 2025 7:38pm Oct 20, 2025 7:38pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} {image} Hi Blanctrader,,, What is this purple line I have circled ? Edit : I am thinking that is the 1SD of vwap attached to Sun Oct 12 6pm Globex open ?
Yes, sir, Kevin. You are correct.
  • #513
  • Oct 20, 2025 7:46pm Oct 20, 2025 7:46pm
Quoting Blanctrader
{quote} Yes, sir, Kevin. You are correct.
Good job on doing that...Many traders just blindly will start a new week looking at
just a session vwap...always keep the bigger picture in mind...

If last weeks levels are being respected the anchor to last weeks open and follow them
into the next week..

Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #514
  • Oct 20, 2025 7:49pm Oct 20, 2025 7:49pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Here's an example from this morning before 930 ES Open.....Fridays IB... It too had a successful BO of the IB high..But one of the best trade setups was the pullback Some Confluences PrevDay Close 50% IB level NY VWAP 3 distinct bounces off and a dbl bttm pattern Globex HVN POC VAH Now that was in the afternoon and past my trading time but an incredible setup.. And the last point which I forgot to mention above is Most Breakouts fail...its a tough gig. Alot of money to be made in the meter drop day trading..without homeruns. In fact I would...
I think I understand you. I should be looking for fades more often than I look for breakouts? I checked September and found barely up to 10 valid BOs from the IB.
So I should let go of the illusions of 1:3s RR? How do I catch a homerun then? I am looking into the roadmap that I see Sir Turnip using. From an experienced standpoint, are 1:1s the most sustainable?
  • #515
  • Oct 20, 2025 9:32pm Oct 20, 2025 9:32pm
Todays ES.....Price Broke out of the Globex high..

A very clean clear Price Discovery Long setup that provided several entries.

Just a reminder the 4 core playbook setups are:
1)Price Discovery continuation
2)Fade Value Area Extremes
3)Return to Value
4)VWAP Bounce
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #516
  • Oct 21, 2025 4:49am Oct 21, 2025 4:49am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Oooo contraire Shabs.. feel free to post up.. I think it's important what you brought up... Perhaps my reply wasn't clear lol... I think having knowledge of Wyckoff and that model is imperative for all trading...and it really is a huge positive for ordeflow trading/ volume etc... The market moves like the Wyckoff model...and that's that..imo. So feel free post up anything along those lines...it's all good here...
I have spent almost a lifetime looking at indicators, testing them backwards, forwards, inside & out.
Eventually I ended up with the best one of all, my eyes and a few drawing tools.

I look at Key Price Levels, PDC, PDH, PDL, PWC, PWH,PWL, BRN's, Market Opens & Closes, Market Flows (HL,HH,LH, LL), ADR
Price compression & Expansion, with Wyckoff principles.

This is where AMT overlaps for me, so will follow your thread to pick out any further insights, "always learning" as the saying goes.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #517
  • Edited 10:03am Oct 21, 2025 9:45am | Edited 10:03am
Market Wizard Linda Raschke's 12 Technical Trading Rules:

1. Buy the first pullback after a new high. Sell the first rally after a new low.

2. Afternoon strength or weakness should have follow through the next day.

3. The best trading reversals occur in the morning, not the afternoon.

4. The larger the market gaps, the greater the odds of continuation and a trend.

5. The way the market trades around the previous day’s high or low is a good indicator of the market’s technical strength or weakness.

6. The previous day’s high and low are two very important “pivot” points, for this was the definitive point where buyers or sellers came in the day before. Look for the market to either test and reverse off these points, or push through and show signs of continuation.

7. The last hour often tells the truth about how strong a trend truly is. “Smart” money shows their hand in the last hour, continuing to mark positions in their favor. As long as a market is having consecutive strong closes, look for up-trend to continue. The up trend is most likely to end when there is a morning rally first, followed by a weak close.

8. High volume on the close implies continuity the next morning in the direction of the last half-hour. In a strongly trending market, look for resumption of the trend in the last hour.

9. The first hour’s range establishes the framework for the rest of the trading day.

10. A greater percentage of the day’s range occurs in the first hour then was the case in the past, and thus it has become increasingly important to trade aggressively if there are early signs of a strong trend for the day.

11. There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets.

The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings.

Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction!

12. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #518
  • Oct 21, 2025 11:33am Oct 21, 2025 11:33am
A little exercise if anyone's interested...
ES
Draw a fixed range volume profile from yesterday's 9:30 New York open.. extended to 9:29 a.m. this morning

Note the low volume nodes...
And what coincides with the 10:00 a.m. 5m 1m etc candle this morning
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #519
  • Oct 21, 2025 11:51am Oct 21, 2025 11:51am
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  • #520
  • Oct 21, 2025 7:35pm Oct 21, 2025 7:35pm
I've been primarily trading gold. Sized all the way down to just 3 micros at this point.

"When Bubbles Burst"
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
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