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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,541
  • Oct 10, 2025 12:35pm Oct 10, 2025 12:35pm
Quoting Macallik
{quote} Got in this morning @ prior resistance that ideally holds as support: {image} I am concerned about gaps as the underlying is volatile. I currently have a handful of March 2026 calls @ a $90 strike price. (Loose) Fundamentals TBH, this feels like a hedge against the independence of the Federal Reserve (and IMO indirectly the solvency of the United States ). My thinking is that Trump has already installed a current White House employee and is trying...
Got some much needed breathing room after a retracement. During the initial drawdown, the only thing that kept me in the trade was trust in the multi-timeframe analysis. It's a balancing act between timing the short-term timeframe and the larger picture and I may have gotten it right for once.
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  1. The bars labeled "more supply" made me nervous in the moment but in hindsight, I can see the price action as attempts to mop up supply that were overwhelmed and forced price lower.
  2. With hindsight, the below-average selloff (that led to the shakeout) looks like a longer-term test of the bars labeled "initial supply". In the moment, I was contemplating whether to reduce my size. I am getting better at sitting on my hands when I have conviction, but at times I also feel like I am crossing my fingers and hoping when I should be updating a VSA narrative in my head. I need to work on that.


Back to the market in general. I closed out my MSTR position. I'm gonna watch some saved VSA videos re: bearish trading over the weekend.

With the markets finally reacting lower, I wouldn't be surprised if it spooks politicians and the shutdown ends within the next week or so, but the damage might have already been done from a VSA perspective. Might be a few weeks away from a real sell-off, but for the foreseeable future, my eyes are on low-volume rallies that sputter out w/ No Demand at key levels.

  • #36,542
  • Oct 10, 2025 5:48pm Oct 10, 2025 5:48pm
Quoting Macallik
Some supply in the S&P today. We'll see how things play out. Was stalking shorts when the breakdown happened so fast that I only got 1/5 the size I wanted (MSTR) and completely missed XYZ. C'est la vie
With how the s&p has been acting, I think it was a smart move stepping into a short. If you add just get your first trade to BE.
  • #36,543
  • Oct 13, 2025 10:52pm Oct 13, 2025 10:52pm
Tried to day trade today and was consistently off-base. I really struggle w/ making heads or tails out of the price action. Because there's a finite amount of time for the stock market, and it seems to be much noisier than the longer-term charts, there are breakouts/breakdowns that feel like they're setting up but never show up or get cut short by the close which gets frustrating.

I want to have a gameplan to participate in the incoming volatility, but I don't want to stray from the daily chart if it seems the most promising. Perhaps I need to assume that most days wont trend and just play for singles and doubles? Just thinking out loud after feeling out of touch w/ the markets today.
  • #36,544
  • Edited 9:42am Oct 14, 2025 8:48am | Edited 9:42am
Gonna revisit the basics and skim some VSA PDFs today.

On another note, Gold is looking like it is setting people up for the okie-doke.

The futures market has been in regular trading hours for 15 minutes and in spite of making little progress it already has its average daily volume.

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Lots of off-peak trading overnight it turns out. The white shows the regular trading hours where heavy volume occurs and the shaded area last night shows the abnormal trading levels
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It's early but my uneducated guess is that someone isn't waiting until today to buy gold at these levels, and so the heavy volume, @ ATH's, w/ nothing to show for it feels like distribution. It'll be my focus intraday.


Edit: Reflecting on it a bit, still have to see what the reaction to the supply is, instead of assuming that it is bearish. It could get tested away or lead to a minor shakeout for example
  • #36,545
  • Oct 14, 2025 10:06am Oct 14, 2025 10:06am
Quoting Macallik
Gonna revisit the basics and skim some VSA PDFs today. On another note, Gold is looking like it is setting people up for the okie-doke. The futures market has been in regular trading hours for 15 minutes and in spite of making little progress it already has its average daily volume. {image} Lots of off-peak trading overnight it turns out. The white shows the regular trading hours where heavy volume occurs and the shaded area last night shows the abnormal trading levels {image} It's early but my uneducated guess is that someone isn't waiting until...
Hi,

To me there is buying at the lows on the 15 minute chart, the problem is that you also have massive selling at the top.

My guess is that is going to go into a range, but that is with the actual information let see what it does when retesting the highs or if it breaks the lows

Kind regards
  • #36,546
  • Edited 1:24am Oct 15, 2025 1:13am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} Hi, To me there is buying at the lows on the 15 minute chart, the problem is that you also have massive selling at the top. My guess is that is going to go into a range, but that is with the actual information let see what it does when retesting the highs or if it breaks the lows Kind regards
Yeah in hindsight, I agree. I can see price being knocked sideways to absorb supply temporarily, but likely not nearly enough to change the bullish background.

I think the market volatility, Gold's off-peak volume, and using a 3m chart collectively led to me being overly bearish/contrarian. Revisiting some VSA texts, zooming out, and seeing strength in the markets, have reminded me that gold is still bullish AF.

I have noticed that Nvidia, the market leader for the last 2-3 years and arguably the sole reason we're in a bullish market, is under-performing since last week's selloff which makes the overall market rally less certain. Gonna be an interesting month
  • #36,547
  • Oct 16, 2025 4:35am Oct 16, 2025 4:35am
Hi Guys,

Is interesting that by the look of things in general VSA is not a very popular strategy

I see that there is not much activity on the VSA or pure volume threads, but I see lots of activity in the ones that talk about market profile and Vwap and so on.

My guess is that they are simpler more objective and easier to understand.

Just thinking out loud.

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,548
  • Edited 1:07pm Oct 16, 2025 5:33am | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting Frag8383
Hi Guys, Is interesting that by the look of things in general VSA is not a very popular strategy I see that there is not much activity on the VSA or pure volume threads, but I see lots of activity in the ones that talk about market profile and Vwap and so on. My guess is that they are simpler more objective and easier to understand. Just thinking out loud. Thanks Kind regards
The result matters more than opinions.
Every trader has opinions almost about everything, some opinions are rational other are not.
VSA is one of the concepts that can be misapplied with many assumptions that are not correct.
Using long winded nomenclature (at times poorly understood) will not make any substantial difference, especially when the basic concepts are confused.
"Traders" are free to practice malfunctioning assumptions, and see the results.
Personally I treat Volume and Tick volume as two very different entities.
Volume is related to the numbers of shares or contracts being traded and it is documented on a given exchange, on which the given security is being traded.
When trading security of which the volume is available VSA makes perfect sense.
On the other hand tick volume has nothing to do with the traditionally understood what volume means, that is my private opinion.
Tick volume is volatility, representing price changes, at times Tick Volume relates to the number of securities being traded, at other times it is not related to the numbers traded of securities. In many cases this knowledge is unachievable, and when it is possible to have it, like trading shares one needs to pay attention and interpret it correctly, the exchanges provide that information, but it can be costly. (the volume in that case represents the other coin side of PA and nobody will hand it freely for obvious reasons).

How the volume can be displayed for eg DOW when NYSE is closed, just think for a second and come to your own opinion/s. Clearly it is beggars believe!
There are also some other instruments where the volume is impossible to be displayed with any proximity to the numbers of contracts being traded. like FX pairs traded 24/5 around the globe.

I think it is paramount to use tools that are real and to know the limitations.
Tick volume, tick charts and volatility have their profitable utilities, but confusing it with the traditionally understood volume IMHO is not correct.
One needs to make their own judgement based on clear thinking and further studies of the subject.
Good trades to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,549
  • Oct 16, 2025 9:25am Oct 16, 2025 9:25am
VSA is just a structural tool derived from Wyckoff. Makes more sense to learn Wyckoff price cycle which covers the basis of VSA. All you really need to know are upthrusts and springs.
  • #36,550
  • Oct 16, 2025 11:59am Oct 16, 2025 11:59am
Quoting Frag8383
Hi Guys, Is interesting that by the look of things in general VSA is not a very popular strategy I see that there is not much activity on the VSA or pure volume threads,
True, and this pains me to no end. As one who is deeply connected to the VSA method, this thread should be a hotbed of activity. More broadly, with a belief in the importance of Volume, I expect more activity in any volume-related thread.

Quoting Frag8383
but I see lots of activity in the ones that talk about market profile and Vwap and so on. My guess is that they are simpler more objective and easier to understand.(Emphasis added)
While there is some truth that there is a level of complication with Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), VSA can be as complicated or as simple as one wants to make it. Case in point: Anotan. There is an elegance and simplicity in his work that is second to none.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,551
  • Oct 16, 2025 12:41pm Oct 16, 2025 12:41pm
Quoting Macallik
Gonna revisit the basics and skim some VSA PDFs today.
Always a good thing. Never stop.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,552
  • Oct 16, 2025 1:20pm Oct 16, 2025 1:20pm
Quoting TradingGod89
VSA is just a structural tool derived from Wyckoff. Makes more sense to learn Wyckoff price cycle which covers the basis of VSA. All you really need to know are upthrusts and springs.
VSA is a great concept possessing a clear utility for trading based on tape reading.
However, volume should not be substituted with Tick volume as displayed on MT4 or other charting software.
On the top of that, tick volume differs from trading platform to trading platform, as it accumulates the number of tick change solely based on that given platform data the differences might not be that significant, but they do exist. No time or interest to investigate any further.
For clarity it would be useful to be more precise and use names that represent reality, like Tick Volume Spread Analysis, where applicable.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,553
  • Oct 16, 2025 1:21pm Oct 16, 2025 1:21pm
Re: the lack of traction for VSA, IMO the fundamentals are unchanged, but the learning path is outdated for the modern newbie. The steps are seemingly unchanged for the last 10-20 years:

  1. Read (and reread) the PDF of a 25 year old book (Undeclared Secrets of the Stock Market) or a 20 year old book (Master The Markets)
  2. Watch grainy Tradeguider videos & PDFs from when Sebastian Mamby, Philip Friston et al were active
  3. Find VSA threads on abandoned forums (ie: traderslaboratory) or this thread
  4. Suffer through a perpetual sales pitch from Gavin that tries to upsell you on the overpriced software.

The only modern tutelage IMO is JMP Trading (free and underrated) and Gary Dayton (professional but pricey). Outside of this forum, there is little interaction with like-minded traders. It's also easy to misunderstand a concept for months/years w/o correction due to sparse activity/feedback.

  • #36,554
  • Oct 16, 2025 8:40pm Oct 16, 2025 8:40pm
I personally know the guy who started this thread, Malcolm. If you really want to learn VSA I personally recommend studying Wyckoff, then Tom Williams work. Wyckoff came first, not VSA. The best book you can read on Wyckoff is Trades About to Happen by David Weis. Or you can even go to Wyckoff Analytics website and they have a ton of free material.
  • #36,555
  • Oct 17, 2025 4:19am Oct 17, 2025 4:19am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} True, and this pains me to no end. As one who is deeply connected to the VSA method, this thread should be a hotbed of activity. More broadly, with a belief in the importance of Volume, I expect more activity in any volume-related thread. {quote} While there is some truth that there is a level of complication with Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), VSA can be as complicated or as simple as one wants to make it. Case in point: Anotan. There is an elegance and simplicity in his work that is second to none.
Yes, but Anotan is one in a million, and his simplicity comes from his deep understanding of VSA to reach to that level is very hard.

Me personally what I found is that VSA is not a stand-alone system and that is one of the reasons is difficult to grasp, because people look at complete system.

Also, the material is not very clear people find difficult to understand Master the Markets that is the VSA bible.

I for instance struggle for a long time trying to understand with all the bars definitions and so on and I have come to terms that I don’t give a s.......... about definitions I only care is about where is the volume and that has made my trading a lot simpler and more focused instead pf trying to find every single pattern. But to get to where I’m now, I struggle for years with VSA, then I stopped using come back to it took me ages to be comfortable with the way I trade now.

What I mean with all this is that I understand why people find it so difficult as a system, even if you see Malcolm is very hard to follow, one day he traded one way another day in a different way and so on.

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,556
  • Edited 7:32am Oct 17, 2025 6:35am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting TradingGod89
I personally know the guy who started this thread, Malcolm. If you really want to learn VSA I personally recommend studying Wyckoff, then Tom Williams work. Wyckoff came first, not VSA. The best book you can read on Wyckoff is Trades About to Happen by David Weis. Or you can even go to Wyckoff Analytics website and they have a ton of free material.
Sharpen used tools and abandon pretences


What follows is my private opinion which influences the way I look at the market and trade, I am willing to change that opinion based on rationally presented evidence to the contrary.

Retail traders are much more exposed to the natural and MM inspired manipulations/speculations (these terms are not intended as negative) of the market compared to the institutional traders.

The subject of the difference between the real volume and tick volume has been discussed many times, but so far this distinction has not filtered into the subject of VSA on this thread in any meaningful way.

What is the Difference Between Tick Volume and Real Volume? Tick volume counts the number of price changes in a security, irrespective of the volume of each trade, whereas real volume represents the total number of shares or contracts traded.

Wyckoff never mentions tick volume in relation to the numbers of shares/contracts being traded, volume for him was a straight correlation of the mummer of traded security versus PA. In relation to volume, the concepts he utilises and the terminology he uses are all exclusively related to that simple correlation. Without any doubt it is a great, rational and very useful concept, when properly understood and applied giving rise to profitable trading.
The problem I see is that tick volume itself derived from PA is treated as the volume derived purely from the number of actually traded shares/contract of a given security. Consequently, Tick Volume belongs that same side of the coin as PA, as is is derived from the PA, real volume on the other hand has been rightly described as the other side of a coin in contradistinction to the one displaying PA.
This leads to a genuine confusion, by identifying two useful concepts as one:
One being VSA in its well defined relationship between volume and PA
The other one being something else like Tick volume (derived from PA) in relation to PA.
Needles to point out, like the tick volume, there are many indicators directly derived from PA and widely used.
Separately each of the above concepts posits very useful and profitable application to trading, however confusing the two has consequences.

Just conduct a simple experiment, use tick chart with the volume indicator. Can can useful but demands different approach to VSA, or it may be that some traders have found the way that so far alluded me.

Usually one does not use angle grinder to drive the nail in, not that occasionally such unusual approach is not possible, hammer is designed for it.
Likewise it is highly unlikely that huge amount or reading, podcast watching ect will suddenly turn fish into a bird!
When parachuting use parachute, when aqua diving use scuba gear, try not to confuse them.

What ever the case please rest assured that the market needs you, especially as liquidity providers. Confusion is a good tool to perpetuate that essential supply line.
It is up to every individual to make sure that losses are affordable, both in capital, time and effort.

Signing off, probably spent too much time wiping a dead horse, here we are...
Best wishes to all!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,557
  • Oct 17, 2025 8:27am Oct 17, 2025 8:27am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Sharpen used tools and abandon pretences What follows is my private opinion which influences the way I look at the market and trade, I am willing to change that opinion based on rationally presented evidence to the contrary. Retail traders are much more exposed to the natural and MM inspired manipulations/speculations (these terms are not intended as negative) of the market compared to the institutional traders. The subject of the difference between the real volume and tick volume has been discussed many times, but so far this distinction...
Tick volume is for small charts but the book I mentioned does cover Wyckoff methods with tick volume scenarios. I don't concern myself with small charts because the guys moving the markets are using the daily and up. If you want VSA to have real weight, then use a daily chart, not intraday charts because they're too weak.
  • #36,558
  • Oct 17, 2025 9:21am Oct 17, 2025 9:21am
Quoting TradingGod89
{quote} Tick volume is for small charts but the book I mentioned does cover Wyckoff methods with tick volume scenarios. I don't concern myself with small charts because the guys moving the markets are using the daily and up. If you want VSA to have real weight, then use a daily chart, not intraday charts because they're too weak.
Thank you for your post.

...Wyckoff methods with tick volume scenarios...
I am not saying that Wyckoff method or principles cannot be applied to any indicator/s derived from PA.
I am not against using indicators either, tick volume is just one of thus derived indicator and it should be treated as such.
I do no want to be incorrect, but privately I use tick chart as a type of an indicator related to volatility, therefore principles like effort v result applies.
I trade intra day and intraweek, my trades do not last that long. Trade DOW cash futures and DOW quarterly futures, started to trade Gold again, similar arrangements to how I trade DOW. In the UK I can spread bet, using bucket shops, but it is TAX free.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,559
  • Oct 17, 2025 11:09am Oct 17, 2025 11:09am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Thank you for your post. ...Wyckoff methods with tick volume scenarios... I am not saying that Wyckoff method or principles cannot be applied to any indicator/s derived from PA. I am not against using indicators either, tick volume is just one of thus derived indicator and it should be treated as such. I do no want to be incorrect, but privately I use tick chart as a type of an indicator related to volatility, therefore principles like effort v result applies. I trade intra day and intraweek, my trades do not last that long. Trade DOW cash...
Bro Ill put you onto some strong tools right now for volatility:

VIX and ATR

And you dont need tick volume. You can just use range as a proxy.

No need for thank yous. Enjoy.
  • #36,560
  • Oct 17, 2025 2:44pm Oct 17, 2025 2:44pm
Quoting Frag8383
Hi Guys, Is interesting that by the look of things in general VSA is not a very popular strategy I see that there is not much activity on the VSA or pure volume threads, but I see lots of activity in the ones that talk about market profile and Vwap and so on. My guess is that they are simpler more objective and easier to understand. Just thinking out loud. Thanks Kind regards
You guys said my name too many times, now I have to post!

But yeah people are just people... the masses will jump from one popular strategy to the next hoping they strike gold. At one point in time on FF there were soo many VSA/volume threads, also on babypips too. Davit came around and all these weekly pivot threads started popping up, then it was ICT and I guess we are circling back to MP now. Also there will be times when trading psychology threads get popular!

But you're also not wrong about VSA... If you let it, VSA can get soo convoluted that it gets overwhelming. But VSA works best when you keep it simple, today on EURUSD is a perfect example of a simple VSA setup.

1. 2 bar reversal, notice the sudden jump in volume!

2. Price breaks the low of the 2 bar reversal

3. Look for signs of no interest to the upside.

From here you kind of have to decide for yourself how you want to approach your entries. You can be quick to enter at the 50% of 2 bar reversal which if you do you will have a relatively small stop but a higher loss rate. Or you can wait for that rejection at the 50% or the 100%, then enter after price drops below the low of the 2 bar reversal for the second time. Which this method has less losses but larger stops.

But not every day is going to be easy, its important to limit yourself so that you don't over trade. Have limits in place to where you can only lose so much $$ per day/week/month. If you hit your limit and stop trading, sure you may miss out on that eventual win, but it also keeps you from losing your shirt on those days the market just doesn't want to act right.
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Macallik